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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Monday, February 27, 2017

A Global Eurodollar Shortage / Currencies / Euro

By: Gordon_T_Long

The World Bank just released a telling report entitled "Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade". Though they deflect the problems in global trade to areas such as excessive regulatory initiatives and policy uncertainty (which is true), what is to be found buried in the appendix are the two un-annotated charts below. I suspect the World Bank didn't compare them directly (they are shown separately) because it would cast a spotlight on an even larger political 'football'.

How does global trade ship ~10% more trade volume but receive ~12% less revenue over a 5 year period? The answer has traditionally been significant improvements in productivity. However, the productivity numbers by country don't even come close to supporting such a premise.

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Currencies

Monday, February 27, 2017

US Dollar Rolling Over / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gary_Savage

A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.

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Currencies

Monday, February 27, 2017

Oscars Debacle – Movies More Costly As US Dollar Devalued / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: GoldCore

  • Cost of Best Picture winners show very significant devaluation of the dollar
  • Average cost to make an Oscar winning film is over $43 million – in gold terms, this is over 106,000 ounces
  • Four $15 million films show nearly 100% difference when priced in gold ounces
  • Oscar fiasco was courtesy of error by accountants PWC
  • Whilst the price of the films remained the same, the cost in gold ounces fell from 11.53% of the cost to make the Departed, in 2009 to just 6.4% in 2012
  • In an error prone, irrational and volatile world, gold retains value over time …
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Currencies

Friday, February 24, 2017

Bitcoin Price Hits Record High! / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Bitcoin has just smashed through its all-time high in US dollar terms.

The US dollar was the last all-time fiat currency to crack as bitcoin has been hitting all-time highs in every other government/mafia mandated currency over the last few years.

On CoinDesk bitcoin hit an all time high of $1206.60 which is the highest it’s been since Mt. Gox in 2013, which doesn’t count, because it was likely inflating bitcoin prices before it was shut down.

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Currencies

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Bitcoin Breaks Records and Sits at Cusp of All-Time High…Here’s Why / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

We have been the biggest proponent of bitcoin in the financial space since it was $3 in 2011.

It now sits just a few dollars from its all-time high (ex-Mt. Gox which wasn’t a legitimate high) of $1,150. And, bitcoin has remained above the $1000 price level for a record stretch of time - seven days!

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Currencies

Friday, February 17, 2017

Roses Are Red... and So's Been EURUSD's Trend / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: EWI

Learn what indicator foresaw the euro's recent reversal to a one-month low

Today, February 14, is Valentine's Day. But instead of chocolate hearts and red roses, we're going to give investors and traders the ultimate gift -- namely, the gift of knowledge.

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Currencies

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

What is Trump's US Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Michael_Pento

The United States Treasury Department has supported a strong dollar policy since its inception in 1789. Period. There were no qualifications or equivocations with that stance, especially since the ascendance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That's why it was so highly unusual when the newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, uttered this quote recently: "From time to time an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy."

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Currencies

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bitcoin Price Dancing around $1,000 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Needham & Co., an investment firm, has issued a new report on the potential success of three prospective Bitcoin ETF. In the report, we read:

Given elevated interest in the bitcoin ETFs that are going through the regulatory approval process we're revisting the subject with a deeper dive to take a look at the factors that may affect approval, differences between the three filings, market indicators of approval odds, and the effect of approval/disapproval on price. Overall, we maintain our estimates that the likelihood of approval is less than 25% but that, if it were approved, such an ETF would be extremely successful. That said, there are some market indicators that seem to suggest higher odds than our own estimates. Ultimately, while we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, we think the SEC is likely to disapprove out of an abundance of caution around bitcoin itself (as opposed to something specific to the filing).

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Currencies

Monday, February 13, 2017

US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart.

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Currencies

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Bitcoin Making Waves In China and Japan / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

As we’ve said here many times, bitcoin is not a revolution in money and banking.  A revolution means returning to where you came from. Instead, bitcoin is an evolution in money and banking.

It changes the game so massively that the entire financial, monetary and political systems have no idea how to deal with it. For this reason, nearly every country in the world has a different “policy” when it comes to bitcoin.

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Currencies

Friday, February 10, 2017

USD and Gold Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar

By: SurfCity

Just a quick update on the USD and Gold. Todays move by the USD finally seemed to put a pause in the relentless uptrend by Gold and the Miners. I have the USD on day 6 now in what is very clearly a new short term Trading Cycle.

My cycle analysis indicates that this USD Trading Cycle uptrend should top out sometime in the next two days if it is to be a Left Translated cycle that fails. If it does not, this would be an early warning that the USD may have also found its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low as well.

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Currencies

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Bullish Case for GBP/JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: MarketsToday

Looking back we see that the GBPJPY moved into a 16-month downtrend following the 195.87 peak reached in June 2015. Support was eventually found at 124.59 four months ago. It was promptly followed by a sharp nine-week rally up into 148.45 resistance (most recent peak). That price area is where both support and resistance were seen back in 2013, at resistance of the 55-week exponential moving average (ema), and at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the internal downtrend (coming off the 168.08 lower swing high).

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

USD Rolling Over, SPX Weakening / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

USD futures are fading this morning as a smaller overnight retracement failed to exceed yesterday’s high at 100.69.

ZeroHedge reports, “We're going to need another Fed speaker...

Harker comments overnight on March being live spiked the Dollar...

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Mauldin

John Grandits : A key pillar of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and now policy formation, is an “America First” approach. So far, this has entailed much discussion around negotiating more favorable trade deals, withdrawing from possible participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing potential currency manipulators, and construction of a wall along the Mexican border, to name a few.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

U.S. Dollar Exorbitant Privilege At Risk?! / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, American's exorbitant privilege might be at risk with broad implications for the U.S. dollar and investors' portfolios. Let me explain.

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Currencies

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

US Dollar Breaks below USD100 with Rising Yields, is Wholesale US Treasury Dump Coming? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: John_Lee

The US Dollar Index has fallen below the psychological 100 level, while 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields remain above multi-year support levels. This is despite the Federal Open Market Committee keeping the Federal Funds rate steady at 0.75% on Feb 1, 2017.

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Currencies

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Why Trump’s Economic Justice Warriors Will Crash The US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jeff_Berwick

For the last eight years we’ve seen the rise of the Social Justice Warriors (SJW’s), as they had lobbied their man, Obama, for the political power required to direct the force of government in the name of their own peculiarly relativist brand of “social justice.”

While they are still busy demonstrating the violent soul of what is inherent in all brands of statism by breaking storefront windows (masked), under the Trump epoch a new type of statist “warrior” has emerged… let’s call them the Economic Justice Warriors (EJW’s).

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Currencies

Sunday, February 05, 2017

US Dollar Bulls Surrender? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears.

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Currencies

Friday, February 03, 2017

Forex Trading Alert: USD Index at Fresh Lows / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Nadia_Simmons

Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against the basket of the major currencies as yesterday's Fed statement didn't give clear signal on the timing of its next rate hike. How did this drop affect the technical picture of EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

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Currencies

Friday, February 03, 2017

The US Dollar is About to Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The $USD is about to collapse.

This is not fear mongering, nor is it just a bold statement. The $USD has peaked and is about to breakdown in a BIG way.

See for yourself, the greenback has taken out critical support. The spike higher that occurred starting election night is looking more and more like a bullish headfake.

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