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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

The Broken Limb and Burst Pipe Economic Fallacies / Economics / Economic Theory

By: James_Quinn

Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

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Economics

Monday, February 10, 2014

The Circular Economy – Roundabouts And Toboggans For Growth / Economics / Energy Resources

By: Andrew_McKillop

Waste Dumps to Resource Mountains

The Sochi Winter Games waste dump could interest future corporate geologists a lot more than the Chernobyl sarcophage. Leaked reports and furtive newsreel footage shows a pyramid 35-stories high, thinly and partly covered in soil, more than 150 metres wide at its base. And growing. Leakage from the Sochi pyramid of waste is, of course, toxic but also contains a hard-to-believe mix and mingle of metals, minerals and organic compounds including gold and with in fact little surprise, uranium and also of course pesticides, chrome hexafluoride, dioxin and similar deadly poisons with a high dollar value per unit weight – either as a resource or as a threat to society needing expensive disposal.

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Economics

Sunday, February 09, 2014

Most Dangerous Economic Era, The Great Divergence: Productivity and Wages / Economics / Earnings

By: John_Mauldin

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

"Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."

– From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen"

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Economics

Saturday, February 08, 2014

U.S. Economic Outlook Is About More Than Just Jobs / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

The Labor Department’s employment report for January was the second straight monthly negative surprise in that area of the economy. It showed only 113,000 new jobs were created in January, well short of the consensus forecast for 190,000.

As they did in reaction to December’s dismal jobs report, Wall Street analysts are blaming it on the weather.

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Economics

Saturday, February 08, 2014

Ominous Looking Picture in U.S. Healthcare and Education Jobs / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.

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Economics

Saturday, February 08, 2014

U.S. Employment Report - Real Earnings of Private Employees Down Slightly / Economics / Earnings

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Here is a look at two key numbers in Friday’s monthly employment report for January:

  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • Average Weekly Hours

The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

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Economics

Saturday, February 08, 2014

Chronic U.S. Employment Data Conflict: Establishment versus Household Surveys / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Yesterday’s employment report again highlights an ongoing conflict between the jobs number in the Establishment Survey versus the roughly comparable data in the Household Survey. The Nonfarm Payrolls of the former came it at a disappointing 113K new jobs — well off the consensus forecasts for 185K or more. In contrast, the Household Survey reported a 638K increase in civilian employment age 16 and over, a number that gets trimmed to 616K after the BLS applies its “annual adjustment to the population controls.” Business Insider, not surprisingly, picked up on this oddity with the headline “By One Measure, This Was A Stupendous Jobs Report“.

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Economics

Monday, February 03, 2014

The Keynesian Multiplier – Does it Exist? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Dan Lieberman writes: Can someone clarify a significant economic and well accepted proposition that bothers me?

The notion that the Keynesian multiplier means that “an exogenous increase in spending, such as an increase in government outlays, increases total spending by a multiple of that increase,” is troublesome. Is it possible to add one dollar to the money supply and magically turn it into more dollars? I don’t think this is possible. I believe economists have misinterpreted the multiplier. To me, it is not a multiplier. It is a divider.

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Economics

Monday, February 03, 2014

New U.S. Recession 2014-2015 90% Chance / Economics / Recession 2014

By: Jas_Jain

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted any recession, in their career, before it happened?

A. N-O-NO.

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted recoveries before they happened?

A: YES, always.

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Economics

Sunday, February 02, 2014

A Tale of Two Europes Deflation Video / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Today's post is a 7-minute video from European Financial Forecast Editor Brian Whitmer. Brian gave this presentation in London to The Society of Technical Analysts. This portion of "A Tale of Two Europes" is packed with myth-busting charts about government's inability to stop deflation, cheap credit's role in an economic recovery and more.

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Economics

Friday, January 31, 2014

For Europe’s Youth, Minimum Wages Means Minimal Employment / Economics / Employment

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Yesterday, in the wake of Tuesday’s State of the Union address, I poured cold water on President Obama’s claim that a hike in the minimum wage for federal contract workers would benefit the United States’ economy, pointing specifically to unemployment rates in the European Union. The data never lie: EU countries with minimum wage laws suffer higher rates of unemployment than those that do not mandate minimum wages. This point is even more pronounced when we look at rates of unemployment among the EU’s youth – defined as those younger than 25 years of age.

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Economics

Friday, January 31, 2014

Canada Debt Crisis, Economic Meltdown, Why the ECB Cares / Economics / Canada

By: David_Hague

Dear Reader, you probably said to yourself that the premise of this article is absurd and preposterous. Canada is a paragon of fiscal responsibility. It is a bastion of good governance in a confused world of financial instability. It is a shining beacon of democracy, the envy of the world. I would have agreed with you until I received a very disturbing early morning phone call from Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, the Director of Statistical Creation, at the European Central Bank [ECB]. My relationship with Gustavo LaFramboise-Pierre went back many years. He had been my bookie since 1980 when I began my career in the investment industry. His life took a significant turn for the better when a senior member of the European Central Bank [ECB] bet large and incorrectly on the outcome of the 2010 World Cup. The only way the senior member of the ECB could settle the debt was to offer Gustavo a high paying sinecure at the ECB. Overnight, Gustavo found himself living in Paris, with the responsibility of fabricating fictional statistics to support whatever policies were being propagated by the world's central banks.

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Economics

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Minimum Wage Laws Kill Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Obama set the chattering classes abuzz after his unilateral announcement to raise the minimum wage. During his State of the Union address, he sang the praises for his action, saying that “It’s good for the economy; it’s good for America.”[1] Yet this conclusion doesn’t pass the economic smell test; just look at the data from Europe.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

UK Accelerating Economic Boom, GDP 1.9% 2013, 4% 2014? Conservative Election Win? / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest ONS UK GDP data showed strong growth for Q4 that lifted annual GDP for 2013 to 1.9%, the fastest growth rate since 2007, and up from the 0.3% of 2012 and that many economists had convinced themselves that the UK was heading for a triple dip recession during 2013.

The UK economy risks suffering from a triple-dip recession amid a period of persistently low growth that will last until the next election, the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King warned - Nov 2012.

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Economics

Monday, January 27, 2014

Economic Growths False Paradigm / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Raymond Matison writes: With pressing economic, banking, and systemic financial problems the world over, leaders of advanced nations both in Europe and in America are calling for programs to resume growth.  President Obama in a recent State of the Union message proposed to reinvigorate growth in the US by doubling exports over the next several years.  Prime minister Abe of Japan was a keynote speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos his January outlining the need to rejuvenate growth.  Japan has been vigorously increasing its money supply and depressing interest rates in order to promote the growth of its exports and GDP.  Government leaders seek growth as the universal answer for maintaining government solvency as well as citizen prosperity, and it seems that no government leader anywhere in the world seeks less growth. Yet few have really considered recently whether growth is the promised panacea of nations and its citizens.  This article raises reasonable questions regarding such policy and its desirability.

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Economics

Friday, January 24, 2014

Argentina in Bad Economic Shape Again - Debt Rattle 2014 / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Argentina is once again in very bad shape. It rose out of the ashes of its 2002 crisis, when it went through presidents like they were popsicles, and large swaths of the middle class ended up living in Villa Miseria shanty towns around Buenos Aires, but it did so through issuing debt. So there we go again.

The no. 1 problem, again, is the lack of foreign reserves. How the country can escape its fate this time is hard to see. People have kept storing their wealth abroad, afraid as they were for the very thing that now happens; a little self fulfilling, one might say. The cost of borrowing shot up, prices for its export products, meat, soy, wheat, plunged, et voila, the squid’s your uncle!

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Economics

Thursday, January 23, 2014

More of the Same From the Keynesians in 2014 / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Harry Goslin writes: The first rule I teach my economics students is that when the economy fails, it’s usually safe to blame the government. To paraphrase Winston Smith in 1984: If we accept that the state is the source of economic misery, “all else follows.”

As a science, economics is really not that difficult because it encompasses decisions we make every day that impact our well-being and the well-being of those around us.

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Economics

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Russia's Growing Regional Debts Threaten Economic Stability / Economics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Editor's Note: The following is the first installment of a three-part series on growing debt for Russia's regional governments.

Since the 2009 financial crisis, the Kremlin has allowed Russia's regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline in order to keep the federal government seemingly healthy, with a nominally small budget deficit and large currency reserves. But now most of Russia's regional governments' debt is so high, it is becoming dangerous for the federal government and big banks and could soon become unmanageable.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Welfare, Minimum Wages, and Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment

By: LewRockwell

Gregory Morin writes: Of the various flavors of government interventionism in our lives, the minimum wage is perhaps the most welcomed. It appeals not only to our innate sense of “fairness” but also to our self-interest. Its allure may erroneously lead us to the conclusion that because “it is popular,” ergo “it is right.”

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Economics

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Ben Bernanke’s Monetary Mess / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Steve_H_Hanke

             Most who have graded Prof. Ben Bernanke’s twelve years at the Federal Reserve have issued marks which range from A to a gentleman’s C. I think those marks are much too generous. Indeed, I think a failing mark would be more appropriate.

             In the ramp up to Britain’s Northern Rock bank run in 2007 and the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008, Bernanke and the Fed created a classic aggregate demand bubble: when final sales to domestic purchasers – a good proxy for aggregate demand – surge well above the trend rate of growth consistent with modest inflation. The Fed also facilitated the spawning of many market-specific bubbles in the housing, equity, and commodity markets. True to form, Fed officials have steadfastly denied any culpability for creating the bubbles that so spectacularly burst during the Panic of 2008-09.

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