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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Will Inflation Make A Comeback In 2014 When Consensus Worries About Deflation / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Two months ago, Incrementum Liechtenstein released its chartbook entitled “Monetary Tectonics” which illustrated the raging war between inflation and deflation in 40 charts. Meantime, the authors of the chartbook have launched the “Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund,” a fund that takes investment positions based on the level of inflation. The key tool in their investment decisions is the “Incrementum Inflation Signal” (also referred to as the “monetary seismograph”), a continuing measurement of how much monetary inflation reaches the real economy based on a series of market-based indicators.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

The Huge Economic Indicator Everyone Misses / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you like bull markets, you better hope Janet Yellen is one of the most talkative Fed Chairs in history.

It's not that she's going to say anything brilliant or insightful, just that she says something - anything - on a regular basis.

You see, there's a direct relationship between how much she says and what's happening in the markets. What she says is almost completely irrelevant.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Let the Economic Data Speak: The Truth Behind Minimum Wage Laws / Economics / Wages

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Obama set the chattering classes abuzz after his recent unilateral announcement to raise the minimum wage for newly hired Federal contract workers. During his State of the Union address in January, he sang the praises for his decision, saying that “It’s good for the economy; it’s good for America.” As the worldwide economic slump drags on, the political drumbeat to either introduce minimum wage laws (read: Germany) or increase the minimums in countries where these laws exist – such as Indonesia – is becoming deafening. Yet the glowing claims about minimum wage laws don’t pass the economic smell test. Just look at the data from Europe (see the accompanying chart).

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Economics

Monday, March 24, 2014

The Fourteen Year Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2014

By: James_Quinn

 “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”Napoleon Bonaparte

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Economics

Saturday, March 22, 2014

China’s Minsky Moment? / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China. China has run up a huge debt, and the payments are coming due. They seem to be proactive, but will it be enough? How much risk do they pose for the global system?

This week as I travel to Cafayate I have asked my young associate Worth Wray to write up his research and our conversations on China. Worth has lived in China; and with his (and my) access to people with their fingers on the pulse of China, he has come up with some valuable insights. The hard part for him was to keep it in a single letter. China is a such a huge topic that writing about it can easily yield a tome.

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Economics

Friday, March 21, 2014

Rising Borrowing Costs Could Threaten US Economic Recovery and USD Rally / Economics / US Economy

By: MahiFX

There's an inconvenient truth, which is that many western countries are so heavily indebted that they cannot afford rising interest rates, yet that is exactly what is starting to happen in the US and long before the US Federal Reserve tighten official rates.

Steadily rising interest rates should be supportive for USD as the Fed normalises its monetary policy. Yet the very process of winding down quantitative easing could be sowing the seeds for the next US economic downturn and a weaker USD. 

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Economics

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Marc Faber Warns China's Credit Crisis Unwind 'Will Be a Disaster' / Economics / China Economy

By: Bloomberg

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, appeared on Bloomberg Television today to discuss the state of the Chinese economy.

Faber told Trish Regan and Matt Miller "I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated....if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China's trading partners are reporting."

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2014

Inflation Does Not Produce Economic Growth / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

After settling at 3.9 percent in July 2011 the yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.6 percent by January this year. Also, the yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index less food and energy displays a visible downtrend falling from 2.3 percent in April 2012 to 1.6 percent in January.

On account of a visible decline in the growth momentum of the consumer price index (CPI) many economists have concluded that this provides scope for the US central bank to maintain its aggressive monetary stance.

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2014

The Economic Recovery's New Clothes / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Michael_Pento

I sometimes feel that the economy is living out the Hans Christian Andersen's fable called "The Emperor's New Clothes". He wrote the story back in 1837 about a vain emperor who hired a couple of charlatans that promise to make him the finest robes out of invisible thread. They convinced the Emperor that anyone not appreciating the sartorial splendor of the two swindlers should be deemed hopelessly stupid and unfit for their positions.

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Economics

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Fiat Money and Business Cycles in Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: MISES

Roger McKinney writes: After the stock market collapse of 2008 and a decline of 3.4 percent for U.S. GDP in 2009, investors rushed to stash funds in emerging markets (EM) where economies were growing at a 3.1 percent annual rate. But the US stock market fell in January of this year largely due to financial trouble in emerging markets. The economies of EM nations, such as, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Thailand, and China, have deteriorated in part because of the withdrawal of US dollar investments from them. Here is a chart from the Institute for International Finance (IIF)[1] showing the capital flows to EM nations:

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Economics

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Is China’s Economy About to Crash? / Economics / China Economy

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: My newsfeed is buzzing with panicky stories on China's economy. Professional worrywarts are terrified that the country's first corporate bond default (by a little-known Chinese solar company ) is just a taste of an economic earthquake to come - one that could shake the global financial system to its foundations.

China's corporate bonds had always been backstopped by the government, so when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy & Science Technology missed a $12.7 million interest payment on a bond, people panicked.

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Economics

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Why Government Cash Hand Outs Does Not Help Alleviate Poverty / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

The current rise in the cost of living in Malaysia can be attributed to the past policies of our Government. It can be traced back to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. During that time a lot countries are badly affected and Malaysia is not spared either. The prices of commodities plunged due to reduced demand in the global marketplace. Since Malaysia’s economy depended much on commodity exports especially palm oil and rubber, it is badly affected. Malaysia’s economy recorded a 7.5% GDP growth at the beginning of 2008 but has since deteriorated to negative growth of 6.2% in 2009. This can be shown by the following graph.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2014

The Bursting of China’s Credit Bubble / Economics / China Economy

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to Garet Garrett in his book “A Bubble that Broke the World” Cheops employed 100,000 men for twenty years to build his great pyramid, “and all he had for 600,000,000 days of human labour was a frozen asset.” Cheops’s distortion of the Nilotic economy was nothing compared with the economy warped by the Chinese government today, which has overseen the construction of empty cities, unused airports, carless highways and bridges to nowhere.

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Economics

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Inflating Assest Prices - Why the Wealth Effect Doesn’t Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Chris Casey writes: Higher equity prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can spur spending. — Ben Bernanke, 2010[1]

Across all financial media, between both political parties, and among most mainstream economists, the “wealth effect” is noted, promoted, and touted. The refrain is constant and the message seemingly simple: by increasing people wealth through rising stock and housing prices, the populace will increase their consumer spending which will spur economic growth. Its acceptance is as widespread as its justification is important, for it provides the rationale for the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary expansion since 2008. While critics may dispute the wealth effect’s magnitude, few have challenged its conceptual soundness.[2] Such is the purpose of this article. The wealth effect is but a mantra without merit.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Soros Warns Europe Faces 25 Years of Stagnation; Ukraine a Wake-Up Call - Video / Economics / European Union

By: Bloomberg

Billionaire investor George Soros discusses the crisis in Ukraine and Europe with Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua and said, Europe faces 25 years of Japanese-style stagnation unless politicians pursue further integration of the currency bloc and change policies that have discouraged banks from lending, "[Europe] may not survive 25 years of stagnation. You have to go further with the integration. You have to solve the banking problem, because Europe is lagging behind the rest of the world in sorting out its banks."

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Economics

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Robert Johnson: New Perspectives For Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jesse

Some of Johnson's remarks are extraordinarily insightful.

I enjoyed his comments on the modern preoccupation with modeling. But I do think his looking back to the Thirty Years War for the trend towards abstract theory over the empirical method in general is a bit of a stretch. But it was kind of cool to think about it.

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Economics

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Economic Myth Busters – The Minimum Wage / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

It has been quite some time since we did a ‘Myth Busters’, even though there obviously remains quite a bit of mythology. So we’re going to chop away at it piece by piece and demonstrate once again that the media, government, and what I like to the call the ‘establishment’ (which is the concatenation of the aforementioned and the banksters) couldn’t give a rip about the truth. The establishment only cares about what is expedient and convenient for itself.

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Economics

Saturday, March 08, 2014

Weakening U.S. Economy Weather or Not? / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it's easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it's much harder to conclude that the it's responsible for the economic vortex that appears to have swallowed the American economy over the past three months. But this hasn't stopped economists, Fed officials, and media analysts from making this unequivocal assertion. In reality the weather is not what's ailing us. It's just the latest straw being grasped at by those who believe that the phony recovery engineered by the Fed is real and lasting. The April thaw is not far off. Unfortunately the economy is likely to stay frozen for some time to come.

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Economics

Friday, March 07, 2014

Long Term Change from Average Earnings Growth above RPI to AEI below RPI / Economics / Earnings

By: Jonathan_Davis

There are many reasons why the evidence is building that we, in the West, may be #TurningJapanese (it’s a Twitterese I coined). Japan experienced deflation for over 20 years, had a generational depression and stocks and property fell 80%, from 1989 to 2012.

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Economics

Thursday, March 06, 2014

How Inflation Destroys the Wealth of Nations / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_T_Salerno

Brendan Brown is a rara avis — a practicing financial economist and shrewd observer of financial markets, players, and policies, whose prolific writings are informed by profound theoretical insight. Dr. Brown writes in plain English yet can also turn a phrase with the best. “Monetary terror” vividly and succinctly characterizes the policy of the Fed and the ECB (European Central Bank) to deliberately create inflationary expectations in markets for goods and services as a cure for economic contraction; the “virus attack” of asset price inflation well describes the unforeseeable suddenness, timing, and point of origin of asset price increases caused by central bank manipulation of long-term interest rates and the unpredictable and erratic path the inflation takes through the various asset markets both domestically and abroad.

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