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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Russia's Growing Regional Debts Threaten Economic Stability / Economics / Russia

By: STRATFOR

Editor's Note: The following is the first installment of a three-part series on growing debt for Russia's regional governments.

Since the 2009 financial crisis, the Kremlin has allowed Russia's regions to take the brunt of the country's economic decline in order to keep the federal government seemingly healthy, with a nominally small budget deficit and large currency reserves. But now most of Russia's regional governments' debt is so high, it is becoming dangerous for the federal government and big banks and could soon become unmanageable.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Welfare, Minimum Wages, and Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment

By: LewRockwell

Gregory Morin writes: Of the various flavors of government interventionism in our lives, the minimum wage is perhaps the most welcomed. It appeals not only to our innate sense of “fairness” but also to our self-interest. Its allure may erroneously lead us to the conclusion that because “it is popular,” ergo “it is right.”

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Economics

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Ben Bernanke’s Monetary Mess / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Steve_H_Hanke

             Most who have graded Prof. Ben Bernanke’s twelve years at the Federal Reserve have issued marks which range from A to a gentleman’s C. I think those marks are much too generous. Indeed, I think a failing mark would be more appropriate.

             In the ramp up to Britain’s Northern Rock bank run in 2007 and the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008, Bernanke and the Fed created a classic aggregate demand bubble: when final sales to domestic purchasers – a good proxy for aggregate demand – surge well above the trend rate of growth consistent with modest inflation. The Fed also facilitated the spawning of many market-specific bubbles in the housing, equity, and commodity markets. True to form, Fed officials have steadfastly denied any culpability for creating the bubbles that so spectacularly burst during the Panic of 2008-09.

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Economics

Monday, January 20, 2014

The Retail Economic Death Rattle / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.”Emile Gauvreau

If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Why Central Bankers Should Not Tinker with Aggregate Prices / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: In November, the ECB (European Central Bank) surprised the markets by dropping its refinancing rate to 0.25 percent to avoid dreaded deflation, and announced it seeks to keep “price growth steady at about 2 percent” which is obviously a target and not a ceiling. Recently-tame inflation data is “worrisome” for many economists and has increased calls for the ECB to be even more aggressive. Central bankers and economists remain committed to the idea that the economy can be managed by manipulating prices in the aggregate.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Demographic Cliff Great Deflation - Harry Dent on How to Prosper in the Coming Downturn / Economics / Deflation

By: The_Gold_Report

There's little happy talk in Harry Dent's new book, "The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014–2019," yet the author sees incredible opportunities for the investors and businesses that see this crisis coming. The founder of Dent Research relies strongly on demographic statistics and trends to predict a crash starting in early 2014 and lasting into 2015 or 2016, which will make 2008 look like a mere tumble. In this interview with The Gold Report, he delves into the economic implications of Baby Boomers aging around the world, and discusses strategies for investors to protect themselves.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

A Glimpse into the Coming Economic Collapse / Economics / Global Economy

By: Casey_Research

By Jeff Thomas, International Man

Beginning in 1999, we predicted a systemic economic collapse that would take place in the First World and would impact all other economies. We began to list some of the "dominoes" that would fall as the collapse evolved and described that the "Great Unravelling," as we termed it, would take roughly ten years. At that time, we guesstimated that the first two of the dominoes, a real estate crash and subsequent stock market crash in the US, would begin in about 2005.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

The Deflation Beast Unleashed and Is Here To Stay / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The time has come. The Automatic Earth has been talking about the inevitability of deflation for years, but the concept only now goes mainstream. Which is a shame, because a lot could have been done to try and mitigate the damage it’s going to do.

Although it’s as inevitable as the laws of thermodynamics, the notion that record debts will always lead to record debt deflation is hardly discussed; you have Steve Keen, Mike Shedlock, and Nicole and yours truly here at The Automatic Earth, and that’s about it (I’m sure I miss one or two, apologies, but I can’t think of any). And although put together we have a reasonable readers base, blogs and websites are still no more than fringe sources compared to the main media where everyone lacks either the intelligence or the courage or both to even think about the notion, no matter how close its certainty may be to that of thermodynamics. They won’t have their world view disturbed by reality.

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Economics

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Global Economic Crisis: There is an App for that! / Economics / Global Economy

By: David_Hague

Dear reader, I am feeling optimistic today that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for our global economic crisis. To be sure it is not going to be straightforward or easy but it does show us a way out. Before I relieve your angst regarding the global economic crisis and share the change that will guide the world into a new economic renaissance, please indulge me and allow me to explain how I uncovered this optimistic vision of our future.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

How to Survive the Demographic Cliff and the Spending Wave / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

For today's Outside the Box, my longtime friend Harry Dent is letting us have a look at chapter 1 of his latest (and I would say his greatest) book, The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019. Harry's grasp of the impact of demographics on economies and investments is unexcelled and unambiguous. We all know that demographics really matter, but Harry has looked deeper and harder and understood better than any of us.

One of the key insights Harry brings to us is the concept of the Spending Wave. In other words, it's not just when you and the rest of your generation were born that matters, it's when you spend. At what age does your spending peak for housing or for child rearing or travel? Harry and his team have developed really good numbers on all of this, and from that data they have been able to consistently predict major macroeconomic trends. Harry summarizes the recent decades and the coming ones like this:

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Economics

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

China Becomes World's Largest Trading Nation Surpassing U.S. / Economics / Global Economy

By: BATR

The globalists put their plan into motion decades ago. The proper meaning of the headline is not that China is an economic miracle, but that the United States, systematically stripped of its industrial might, is destined to fall even further. The Chinese economy is a haven of direct transnational integration. The outsourcing of manufacturing from domestic capacity is not solely a response of cheaper economic cost of goods production. No, the underlying reason for the migration of product assemblage is to weaken an independent American economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Incompetent Bank of England Celebrates Inflation Success for 1 Month out of 50 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England and Coalition Government politicians were accompanied by hip hip hurray cheers right across the mainstream media as all were found celebrating the good news that the the Bank of England has achieved its primary remit for the targeting of 2% CPI Inflation for December 2013 data (RPI 2.7%, Real 3.6%), the first time the central bank has achieved its official target for the duration of the Coalition government as the CPI inflation rate has spent the whole of this parliament well above the target, ranging as high as 5.2% as illustrated by the graph below.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Job Exclusion in America: What Caused Crash In the Labor Participation Rate? / Economics / Employment

By: Washingtons_Blog

Workers May Simply Be Giving Up

Zero Hedge notes that the number of Americans in the labor force has dropped to 1978 levels:

The civilian labor force … dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll: A 50-Year Perspective / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday’s employment report generated a surge of economic commentaries focused on the unexpectedly low 74K increase in Nonfarm Employment. Forecasters were looking a number closer to 200K. The blogosphere exploded with a range of opinions, the more dramatic of which spoke of the “huge miss” in new jobs.

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Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Clear Evidence That Fed QE Doesn’t Create U.S. Jobs / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Graham_Summers

Over the last five years, the US Federal Reserve has substantially changed the investing landscape of the capital markets in the last 12 months. In particular we need to assess how ongoing QE programs affect notions of “risk” and rates.

In the period from March 2008 to late 2013, the Federal took a series of strategic steps to attempt to rein in the financial crisis and to support certain financial institutions that it deemed most critical to the health of the financial system.

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Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Politicians Will Tell Us Hyperinflation is Necessary, Proper, Patriotic, and Ethical / Economics / HyperInflation

By: MISES

Patrick Barron writes: Hyperinflation leads to the complete breakdown in the demand for a currency, which means simply that no one wishes to hold it. Everyone wants to get rid of that kind of money as fast as possible. Prices, denominated in the hyper-inflated currency, suddenly and dramatically go through the roof. The most famous examples, although there are many others, are Germany in the early 1920s and Zimbabwe just a few years ago. German Reichsmarks and Zim dollars were printed in million and even trillion unit denominations.

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Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Pathetic December U.S. Job Numbers Proof 2014 Will Be a Challenging Year / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: What happened?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that only 74,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December. Most economists were expecting 200,000 jobs to be created in December—way off reality. The December increase in U.S. payrolls was the slowest pace in almost three years.

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Economics

Monday, January 13, 2014

Debt, Deficits, Demographics, Deleveraging and Deflation - Forecasting the Killer D's 2014 / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It seems I'm in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part of that dialogue, and it's one that I get to share directly with you. Last week we started a conversation looking at what I think is the most positive and dynamic aspect of our collective future: The Human Transformation Revolution. By that term I mean the age of accelerating change in all manner of technologies and services that is unfolding before us. It is truly exhilarating to contemplate. Combine that revolution with the growing demand for a middle-class lifestyle in the emerging world, and you get a powerful engine for growth. In a simpler world we could just focus on those positives and ignore the fumbling of governments and central banks. Alas, the world is too complex for that.

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Economics

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Worst US Jobs Report in Three Years shatters Claims of Economic Recovery / Economics / Employment

By: Global_Research

Andre Damon writes: The US employment report for December, released Friday by the Labor Department, is a shattering exposure of the Obama administration’s claims that the US economy is in the midst of a recovery.

Just one day before, in announcing his “economic promise zones,” Obama had touted the so-called recovery, insisting, in the face of widespread disbelief among working people, that it was “real.” (See “Obama’s phony campaign against inequality”).

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Economics

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Inflation via QE - The Malachi Crunch Continues 2014 / Economics / Inflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Those of you who have known me any length of time know that I love to say ‘they always tell you what they’re going to do’. I had a really scintillating discussion yesterday with two fellow economists as to why that might be and we’ll shelve that for now, but let’s just say this: ‘they’ are at it again. Last week I referenced an IMF working paper penned by Harvard dynamic duo Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart regarding asset confiscation and other ways to wiggle our way our the current economic morass that we find ourselves in. This week I’m going to perform a full dissection because there is material in there that you simply cannot go on without knowing if you expect to salvage even a shred of your financial state as it exists today.

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