Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 13, 2015
The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.
Monday, April 13, 2015
New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Credit Crunch Underway
Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.
His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.
First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.
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Sunday, April 12, 2015
BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance / Economics / Propaganda
By: James_Quinn
“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ― George Orwell
Every time the BLS puts out their monthly propaganda report on the wonderful state of the U.S. jobs market and states with a straight face the unemployment rate is a measly 5.5%, their corporate mouthpieces in the mainstream cheerleader media regurgitate the fake numbers and urge you to buy stocks. The millionaire talking heads on CNBC and the corrupt bought off politicians in D.C. make broad sweeping declarations about economic recovery, strong job growth, GDP advancement, record highs in the stock market, and soaring consumer confidence.
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Saturday, April 11, 2015
Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.
However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.
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Friday, April 10, 2015
How an Artificial Economy Collapses Organically / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
One of the biggest news stories, almost too perfect not to be timed, was released on a day when markets closed early: Good Friday.
Conveniently not factored into major world markets was last week's horrible jobs report.
From the timing of the news, to the revisions and the real story, these numbers tell about the underlying economy. It says everything one needs to know about the broken monetary system.
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.
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Friday, April 10, 2015
Euro-zone Crisis - Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative wages fall and deflation become a problem. Greece is the poster child.
The north-south imbalance in the Eurozone is still a problem today. In this week’s Outside the Box, I highlight a recent blog on that topic from none other than former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He first published his blog on March 30, and it appears he is going to post to three times a week. It’s a very thoughtful commentary, and I will admit to having subscribed. He is going back to his “professor” style and communicates very clearly.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2015
Economists in Glass Houses / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.
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Monday, April 06, 2015
Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard / Economics / Global Financial System
By: MISES
Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: "The world that disappeared in 1914 appeared, in retrospect, something like our picture of Paradise," wrote the economist Cecil Hirsch in his June 1934 review of R.W. Hawtrey’s classic, The Art of Central Banking (1933). Hirsch bemoaned the loss of the far-sighted restraint that had once prevailed among the "bankers' banks" of the West, concluding that modern times "had failed to attain the standard of wisdom and foresight that prevailed in the 19th century."
Sunday, April 05, 2015
New Zealand Economy - There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.
My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. More about that below.
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Saturday, April 04, 2015
Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.
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Saturday, April 04, 2015
U.S. Jobs Report Huge Miss, +126k Half Forecasts / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.
Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"
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Friday, April 03, 2015
Is the CPI Telling Us the Full Story on Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: You can't fully trust economic statistics...
As I explained in yesterday's essay, measuring the economy is difficult. Very difficult. And in a sense, there are no "real" numbers.
But the official measures of inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), or employment aren't the result of some conspiracy agenda. And a close look at GDP data confirms the economy is still slowly recovering from the financial crisis.
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Thursday, April 02, 2015
The Great Inflation Canard / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Charles W. Calomiris and Peter Ireland, two distinguished economists and friends, wrote an edifying piece in The Wall Street Journal on 19 February 2015. That said, their article contains a great inflation canard.
They write that “Fed officials should remind markets that monetary policy takes time to work its way through the economy—what Milton Friedman famously referred to as “long and variable lags”—and on inflation.” That’s now a canard.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Is the U.S. Headed for a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Are the government's economic statistics to be trusted at all?
Every economic statistic – from gross domestic product (GDP) to employment to inflation – comes from some agency performing calculations in a complex environment. But what do these numbers actually show us? Are these figures finagled by the government or other interested parties?
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Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Our Current Illusion of Economic Prosperity / Economics / US Debt
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
President Obama and Fed Chair Janet Yellen have been crowing about improving economic conditions in the US. Unemployment is down to 5.5 percent and growth in 2014 hit 2.2 percent.
Journalists and economists point to this improvement as proof that quantitative easing was effective.
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Monday, March 30, 2015
Where the U.S. Economy Is Heading According to Buffett / Economics / US Economy
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Many investors like to follow the “smart money.” And it doesn’t get much smarter than Warren Buffett. So it’s worth examining what stocks Buffett is buying and selling, not just for individual names, but to gauge his overall comfort with the market.
In the quarter ending in December, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) sold all of its shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). It also reduced its holdings in National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) by about 18%. A lot of Buffett watchers have interpreted his reduced holdings in energy as bad news for the industry.
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Saturday, March 28, 2015
Why We Need Deflation and Higher Interest Rates / Economics / Deflation
By: MISES
John P. Cochran writes: The Fed is seemingly slightly out of step with other central bankers as it recently hinted at possible future rate hikes in the official announcement following its March 20, 2015 meeting. But as many commentators have recognized, Janet Yellen, a strong proponent of Keynesian more-inflation-as-cure-for-unemployment policy, later downplayed the significance of the announcement. She was careful to indicate that rates would stay low for the near future and when (and if) rate increases begin, they will be measured. The Fed, like central bankers elsewhere, stays committed to a 2 percent inflation target as it continues a policy driven by a fear of deflation, a fear that is not supported by either good economic theory or economic history properly interpreted.
Friday, March 27, 2015
Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
A developing deflationary trend hinders the economic "recovery"
Lots of media stories say the Federal Reserve is weighing signs of economic strength to see if the economy is ripe for higher interest rates.
In truth, economic weakness has appeared on various fronts.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.22% annualized rate, effectively unchanged (+0.04%) from the +2.18% previously reported and down -2.74% from the growth rate reported for the prior quarter.