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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

QE Worked For The Weimar Germany For A Little While Too / Economics / HyperInflation

By: LewRockwell

Michael Snyder writes: There is a reason why every fiat currency in the history of the world has eventually failed. At some point, those issuing fiat currencies always find themselves giving in to the temptation to wildly print more money. Sometimes, the motivation for doing this is good. When an economy is really struggling, those that have been entrusted with the management of that economy can easily fall for the lie that things would be better if people just had “more money”. Today, the Federal Reserve finds itself faced with a scenario that is very similar to what the Weimar Republic was facing nearly 100 years ago. Like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. economy is also struggling and like the Weimar Republic, the U.S. government is absolutely drowning in debt. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has decided to adopt the same solution that the Weimar Republic chose.

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Economics

Monday, September 23, 2013

Fear the Boom, Not the Bust / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: If you listen to TV commentators, you’ve been told the worst is behind us. Growth is picking up, and Europe is coming out of its slumber. No one seems to be concerned that this tepid below-2-percent growth is being entirely fed by the central bank’s massive money printing. It’s a “growth at any price” policy. How quickly we forget.

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Economics

Monday, September 23, 2013

The Trajectory of Global Wage Equalization / Economics / Wages

By: Submissions

Keith Hilden writes: We are in a world in which our current governments, current monetary policies, current developmental policies, and current macroeconomic conditions are creating a new world in which wages will be set by skill, the ability to do the job, and productivity, rather than geographic location. A country's location on the globe is no longer a guarantee of the success of the inhabitants of that country, now that the globalized economy has arrived. This will further be achieved by the development of areas of the globe that as of now have largely missed out on economic development prospects. A CPA of equivalent ability and work produced in Africa will make roughly as much as a CPA in New York. A bus driver in Oklahoma City will make roughly as much as a bus driver in Tallinn, Estonia working the same amount. The ability to access these higher-paying jobs via higher education and training, and a solid educational foundation in their country of adolescence will still be a factor in separating higher wage jobs from lower wage jobs, but once anyone in the world is able to attain those requirements, they make roughly the same wages for the work produced, regardless of geographic location. Based on the trajectory the world is currently on, this will take a generation or so to occur. This is the track that governments and policymakers across the world have chosen our world to follow.

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Economics

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Can Quantitative Easing Create Economic Growth? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Frank_Shostak

Some commentators such as Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), are of the view that the Federal Reserve’s policy of massive asset purchases has added very little to economic growth. A study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City explores various channels through which monetary pumping can grow the US economy. On this, the study indicates that the Fed’s purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBS) can have a strong beneficial effect. The study however suggests that with respect to the purchases of Treasury Bonds the effect on the economy is minimal.

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Economics

Sunday, September 22, 2013

America's Unfunded State Pensions Crisis - Rich, Poor and Begger Cities / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

"The future is already here," intoned William Gibson, one of my favorite cyberpunk science fiction authors, "it's just not very evenly distributed." Paraphrasing Gibson, the pension crisis is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed. For the past two weeks we've been exploring the problems of state pension funds. This week we will conclude our look at pension plans for the nonce with a 30,000-foot overview of the states and then take a deeper dive into one city: mine. This will give you at least one version of how to do your own homework about your own hometown. But fair warning, depending on your locale, you may need medical help or significant quantities of an adult beverage after you finish your research. Then again you may be pleasantly surprised and congratulate yourself on choosing a particularly adept hometown. And be on notice that, no matter what your personal conclusion and how well-grounded your analysis is, there will be people who live in your neighborhood who think you are utterly full of, well, let's just say "nonsensical matter" and leave it at that. This is a family letter.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Need for a New Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In today's Outside the Box, my good friend George Gilder, the well-known techno-utopian, attempts with some success to turn economics on its ear. "The economy is not chiefly an incentive system," he asserts, "it is an information system." And information, truly understood, is about the introduction of novelty, or "surprise," into a system. In the case of the economy, it's about invention and entrepreneurship. The new information that is injected gets converted into knowledge; and thus, says George, it is accumulated knowledge, rather than money or material, that constitutes true wealth.

And thus the economy is driven not so much by powerful people and institutions wielding the levers of the economic machine as it is by the ever-increasing power of information and knowledge. Economists and the governments they work for often appear to prefer a deterministic, no-surprises (and too-big-to-fail) economy, but that way lies economic stagnation. If determinism worked, socialism would have thrived.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Bitter Facts of the Jobs Recovery You Need to Know About / Economics / Employment

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Federal Reserve and Obama administration have pushed trillions of dollars of stimulus into the economic veins of America. For that, the return on the investment has been dismal.

Just take a look at the retail sales reading for August; consumer spending clearly isn’t doing what the government wants it to do and that is to spend and drive gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

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Economics

Saturday, September 14, 2013

The Silent Assassin Of The U.S. Economy / Economics / Inflation

By: Clif_Droke

When most people think about the biggest threats to the U.S. economy they usually mention things like the budget deficit, the national debt or the trade gap. What rarely gets mentioned as a potential economy killer is something we all have to face every day yet mainstream economists refuse to acknowledge it.

The biggest problem in the economy isn't the excessive amount of public or private debt; it's the extremely high level of prices for basic commodities like food and fuel. Economists consistently underestimate how much of the middle class worker's paycheck goes to buying these two essential needs. For all of its successes, the Fed's QE program did nothing to alleviate high retail food and fuel prices. If anything, it may have actually increased them.

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Economics

Thursday, September 12, 2013

How Japan Pretends To Fight Debt And Deflation, But Doesn't / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Let's see if I can keep this nice and short: in my view the article below from Reuters correspondents Yoshifumi Takemoto and Yuko Yoshikawa, while looking innocent enough at first glance, in fact borders on nonsensical disinformation.

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Economics

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Seniors Are Stealing From Our Young, the Looming Entitlement Spending Catastrophe / Economics / Demographics

By: Bloomberg

Hedge fund icon and former Chairman, President and CIO of Duquesne Capital, Stan Druckenmiller joined Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker on "Market Makers" for a full hour and said, the government must address entitlement spending "This is the first generation where a 30-year-old's net worth is less than his parents...If you look at the older people, there net worth has doubled." Druckenmiller also said it would be a big deal for financial markets if the Federal Reserve were to completely end its asset purchases over the next 12-months.

Druckenmiller said he sees no bear market as long as fed prints money, prices will respond to actual QE exit, he doesn't see many investing opportunities, he is very focused on who the next Fed Chairman is, and thinks there are too many hedge fund managers.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

The Rundown on Runaway Inflation / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Despite a dramatic increase in the Fed's balance sheet, the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes are subdued

Famed radio broadcaster Earl Nightingale, who was the voice of Sky King on the radio and later went on to become a motivational speaker, described what he believed to be the biggest sin a public speaker could commit.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Economic Advantage America / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Today's Outside the Box, which comes to us from good friend Gary Shilling, is unusual because that old confirmed bear is waxing positively bullish about the future prospects of the US. In doing so he mirrors my own views. It is just a matter of time before I go from being bearish on the US because of the dysfunctional US government to being an irrational perma-bull, at least for the next few decades. There is just too much upside potential with this country of ours — if we can muster the political will to handle our serious fiscal issues.

Gary builds the positive case beyond the fiscal concerns, and a compelling case it is. In six crucial areas, he says — demographics, entrepreneurial activity, labor relations, domestic vs. foreign debt financing, currency strength, and energy independence — the US is better positioned than any of its major competitors.

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Economics

Sunday, September 08, 2013

Pension Funds Unrealistic Expectations, Nominal or Real Returns? / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

"In the short run, the market is like a voting machine, tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine, assessing the substance [intrinsic value] of a company." – Benjamin Graham

Way back in the Paleozoic era (as far as markets are concerned), circa 2003, I wrote in this letter and in Bull's Eye Investing that the pension liabilities of state and municipal plans would soon top $2 trillion. This was of course far above the stated actuarial claims at the time, and I was seen as such a pessimist. Everyone knew that the market would compound at 9%, so any problems were just a rounding error.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Fear the Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

While officials from the Federal Reserve gather recently in Jackson Hole Wyoming to bemoan that inflation isn’t yet high enough for their liking, the truth is that inflation is already ravaging the middle class.

To prove my point, the government’s official reading on core CPI inflation (one of the Fed’s preferred metrics that removes food and energy prices) increased just 1.7% from July 2012. So, in the mind of those who control the value of our currency, inflation is well below their target of 2%; and therefore needs to be increased.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

The Three Types of Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: Reading the financial press, one gets the impression there are only two sides to the austerity debate: pro-austerity and anti-austerity. In reality, we have three forms of austerity. There is the Keynesian-Krugman-Robert Reich form which promotes more government spending and higher taxes. There is the Angela Merkel form of less government spending and higher taxes, and there is the Austrian form of less spending and lower taxes. Of the three forms of austerity, only the third increases the size of the private sector relative to the public sector, frees up resources for private investment, and has actual evidence of success in boosting growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

How Fed Policy Has Devastated Three Generations of Retirees / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

Retirement can be an unpleasant prospect if you’re not ready for it. This week’s Outside the Box is in in-depth report on Americans' retirement prospects, which comes to us from Dennis Miller, a columnist for CBS Market Watch, and editor of Miller’s Money Forever. It's not just the Boomers who are trying (often in vain) to retire this decade; it's also Gen-Xers, who are the most indebted generation (and the one that saw their assets depreciate the most in the Great Recession). The Millennials haven't been spared, either; in fact, over time they may be the hardest-hit, since near-zero interest rates are keeping them from compounding their savings in the early years of their careers, when the power of compounding is greatest. In addition, the difficult post-college job market and sky-high levels of student loans have kept most Millennials out of the stock market, and they are far less likely than previous generations t o open a retirement savings account.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

3 Ways Inflation Destroys an Economy / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Moyer

If Batman has the Joker, I have inflation. Inflation, my great and worthy opponent, has shown me yet another side of his wicked, wealth-destroying ways. Let's have a look.

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Economics

Sunday, September 01, 2013

Savings Glut vs. Low Interest Rates / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Howden

Five years after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, economists are still starkly divided as to its causes. Perhaps this is not too surprising as we are now more than 80 years past the Great Depression with little end in sight to the debate surrounding the causes of that downturn.

Most economists fall into one of two camps when explaining where the imbalances originated that led up to the current crisis. Austrian School economists are in the unique position of being able to reconcile these two camps, even while favoring the first explanation to the second.

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Economics

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Asia Growth Illusion, Why China May Not Be The Odd One Out? / Economics / Asian Economies

By: DK_Matai

Which are the world's worst performing currencies over six months losing between 20+% to 8+% against the US dollar? 1. Indian Rupee; 2. Brazilian Real; 3. South African Rand; 4. Indonesian Rupiah; 5. Turkish Lira; and 6. Russian Rouble -- in that order. So whose left amongst the 'Emerging Market' majors including the BRIC nations save China? How long before the Chinese fortune cookie crumbles given a multi-trillion dollar black hole of local government debt which nobody really wants to talk about?

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Economics

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Global Economy Suffers From Hypothermia / Economics / Global Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We've used the analogy before, in particular to describe what happened to the Roman Empire during the latter days of its existence. Looking around various economies in the world today, the same analogy once again comes to mind. One might say that what we see these days is analogous to the more advanced stages of hypothermia.

Early hypothermia may show in nothing more than cold feet, in itself an amusing analogy perhaps. But a body that is exposed to extreme cold over longer periods of time will at some point start to exhibit symptoms such as frostbite, which are the result of the core of the body trying to save itself at the cost of the periphery, the extremities. Typically, a human body, for instance, will lose its toes first because the heart can no longer pump enough blood (heat) to them and at the same time keep the body's core above a minimum temperature.

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