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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, July 19, 2013

Central Banksters Make the Best Economic Terrorists / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

From the minutes of theFederal Reserve meeting April 30th - May 1st 2013.

"Many participants indicated that continued (job market) progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases."

On May 22nd Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that a decision could be made, at any of the next few Fed meetings, to scale back the $85 billion in bonds the Fed is buying each month if the economy looked set to maintain momentum. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower, the dollar hit a three year high and the bond market sold off with yields on the 10 year Treasury notes jumping above 2%.

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Economics

Friday, July 19, 2013

Are Higher Oil Prices About to Set Off an Inflationary Spiral? / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: There is a long-held belief that significant increases in oil prices are harbingers of building inflationary pressures.

It follows from the observation that a market able to absorb more expensive oil is also one where prices are rising elsewhere.

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Economics

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation.

One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

1% U.S. Economic Growth: QE Policy a Failure, Time for A Change / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

Fed Policy – Pushing on a string: Is far too Kind

Economists are now ratcheting down their forecasts for final 2nd quarter GDP to 1% which just further illustrates the ineffectiveness of fed policy measures. Ben Bernanke blames fiscal policies out of Washington, saying he can only do so much to counteract their lack of a healthy tax code, job creation plans, and inefficiencies.

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Economics

Monday, July 15, 2013

Why a U.S. Recession Within the Next 12 Months Is Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: One fact has become quite clear: if we want to see robust growth in our gross domestic product (GDP), then there needs to be a significant change in consumer spending.

But current consumer spending in the U.S. economy is looking bleak, and it makes me skeptical about the GDP growth ahead. We’ve already seen GDP in the first quarter revised lower due to consumer spending; and it won’t be a surprise to me if something similar happens in the second quarter.

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Economics

Friday, July 12, 2013

Inflation - The Real Thing / Economics / Inflation

By: Fred_Sheehan

"[T]he concept of the general price level is extremely vague and we cannot even speak of a very approximate determination of the average price level. Every index number is to a certain extent arbitrary: the selection of the commodities that are to be included, the choice of the weighting, the base from which the index starts, and, lastly, the mathematical processes applied, are all arbitrary..."

-Wilhelm Röpke, Crises and Cycles, 1936

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Economics

Friday, July 12, 2013

U.S. Economic Tide Has Turned, Market Implications / Economics / US Economy

By: Puru_Saxena

The world’s economic landscape is changing and after a disastrous decade, America is once again in the driver’s seat.  Contrary to the 2000-2011 time frame (when the developing nations fared a lot better than America), the tide seems to have turned in favour of the world’s largest economy. 

As you will recall, at the turn of the millennium, American business was booming and Wall Street was caught up in an epic technology bubble!  Back then, American assets were highly sought after and even its currency was extremely strong.  Unfortunately, that period of prosperity did not last forever and the bursting of the technology bubble in March 2000 ushered in an era of painful adjustment.  Thereafter, in the aftermath of the NASDAQ bust, Mr. Greenspan helped ignite America’s housing boom and we all know how that story ended.  To make matters worse, the US Dollar also topped out in 2001 and for almost 10 years, holders of American assets also suffered due to currency devaluation.

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Economics

Friday, July 12, 2013

China GDP Growth Rate Falls to 6.7% / Economics / China Economy

By: EconMatters

China releases 2nd quarter GDP data Sunday night in US time zones and it is going to be ugly based upon all the second quarter econ data we have received throughout these three months. The trend is going south fast, and as bad as the second quarter GDP figures are the third quarter GDP will be even worse because of the effects of tightening measures to try to get a handle on the shadow banking sector.

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Economics

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Global Shipping Contends with Oversupply Problems / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

The global shipping industry is oversupplied. Because supply far exceeds demand, shipping rates have plummeted, as have the prices of ships. Some shipping companies have sought to capitalize on this trend by purchasing newer, larger ships at lower prices so that they can remain price competitive. But unless demand rebounds by the time these ships become operational, the industry's oversupply problem will only worsen.

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Economics

Thursday, July 11, 2013

No U.S. Inflationary Risk, Banks May Shrink Balance Sheets / Economics / Inflation

By: Bloomberg

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink joined Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on "Market Makers" today and said he does not see any inflationary risk in the United States. Fink went on to say that banks may shrink balance sheets on rules requiring financial companies to have higher capital ratios: "If they shrink their balance sheet, we're going to have a more aggravated problem in the future because banks are the largest owner of U.S. Treasuries."

During the hour-long interview, Fink gave insights on China, emerging markets, the bond market, the role the wants BlackRock to play in the market, and his thoughts on Ben Bernanke, Hillary Clinton and President Obama.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Why QE3 Hasn’t Triggered Inflation – So Far / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: When you pump massive amounts of money into an economy, as the U.S. Federal Reserve has done with QE1 through QE3, you're supposed to get some measure of inflation.

And yet despite some $2.3 trillion of quantitative easing since 2008, the core inflation rate has actually fallen over the past year from about 2.25% to 1.7% as of May.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Part-Time Employment is the New Normal / Economics / Employment

By: BATR

Intuitively, most observers sense that employment practices have changed dramatically from days gone by. Terence P. Jeffrey in CNS News provides the stats on the disappointing jobs record performance. "Since January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the United States has seen 54 straight months with the unemployment rate at 7.5 percent or higher, which is the longest stretch of unemployment at or above that rate since 1948, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics started calculating the national unemployment rate." So what will employment prospects become as the economy struggles to regain some modest semblance of prosperity?

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Economics

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Refutation of Economic Illusion with Gold and Silver Safety Perfect Timing / Economics / Global Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Illusions trick us into perceiving something different than what actually exists and the mainstream media is very good at creating them. Currently they have the herd convinced there is an economic recovery underway.

We all need to understand that to have a real, and sustainable recovery for an economy that relies on consumer spending for 70 percent of its activity we need to have a jobs recovery.

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Economics

Saturday, July 06, 2013

What the Worst U.S. Jobs Report of the Year Means to You / Economics / Employment

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: On the surface, today’s jobs market report looks good…

195,000 jobs were created in the U.S. economy during the month of June, with the “official” unemployment rate for the month sitting at 7.6%, unchanged from May. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 5, 2013.)

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Economics

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Draghi's Guidance Light is Non-farm Payrolls Train at End of Tunnel / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Ashraf_Laidi

US June non-farm payrolls rose by 195K, surpassing forerecasts of 165K, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find 12 consecutive monthly readings of +100K NFP. Not only non-farm payrolls have shown 3 consecutive monthly net additions of greater than 190K, but 12 consecutive monthly readings above 100K, the last time this was seen was in May 1999-May 2000.

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Economics

Friday, July 05, 2013

Central Banks Seal Europe's Economic Suicide Pact / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Andrew_McKillop

RISK OFF FOR THE MARKETS
Through a probably linked and coordinated decision, the two former Goldman insiders – the ECB's Mario Draghi and the BOE's Mark Carney – acted to further destroy the need or desire for personal savers to have savings at all, by holding interest rates at extreme lows. And they went further.

Also probably coordinated, both the ex-Goldman insiders now running European central banking took an “unprecedented step”. They both promised – or threatened – further rate cuts.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Can Bernanke Brake Without Derailing U.S. Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

According to most commentators, reducing monetary stimulus and winding down the balance sheet of the Fed without major economic disruptions is going to be a major challenge for US central bank policy makers. On Wednesday, June 19 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said that given an improved outlook on the economy, the US central bank may moderate the pace of monetary pumping. According to Bernanke, by mid-2014 the Fed may even end the purchasing of assets.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Syria’s Annual Inflation Hits 200% / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In an attempt to beat Western sanctions and halt the fall in the Syrian pound, the Assad regime – with the help of Iran, Russia, and China – has begun conducting all of its business in rials, roubles, and renminbi. This decision supplements other existing arrangements between Syria and its allies that are keeping the Syrian economy on life-support. These include transfers of $500 million per month in oil and an unlimited credit line with Tehran for food and oil-product imports.

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Economics

Sunday, June 30, 2013

China's Economic Rebalancing Killed The Asian Locomotive / Economics / China Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

PEKIN SCHEMES, PEKIN DREAMS
As we know, if we believe what we read in the media, Edward Snowden might be trying to return home and face show trial, but “under his own conditions”. In any case Vladimir Putin will be glad to get rid of him the same way China's leadership very quickly passed the buck, or rather the Snowden hot potato to Putin. More important for the world economy, China is no longer playing Asian Locomotive and has radical new plans – due to the pressures causing the new plans – for steering its economy.

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Economics

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Market Monopoly Through Austrian Economics Lenses / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: A recent 60 Minutes piece by Lesley Stahl cut into an extremely urgent problem of our day: expensive sunglasses. The report identified a possible monopoly in the market for glasses, a firm called Luxottica, which owns almost all the leading brands of eyewear, four large retailers of glasses, and even a popular vision insurance provider.

Stahl interviewed the CEO of Luxottica, Andrea Guerra, and questioned his business practices, the prices of his products, and Luxottica’s growth over the years. At times, she almost seemed to scold the successful CEO for, well, being so successful.

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