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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, October 31, 2013

A Long-Term Look at Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The October 2013 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the September year-over-year inflation rate at 1.18%, less than third the 3.90% average since the end of the Second World War and 51% lower than its 10-year moving average.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

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Economics

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Documenting the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary and Economic Failures / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

In their third-quarter Review and Outlook – today's Outside the Box – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington get right down to telling us why the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program is doomed to failure. (This is a thesis that is dear to my heart, since coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I explore it at length in our just-released book, Code Red.) The Fed scrambled hard and came up with some extraordinary measures to keep the global economy more or less in one piece as the Great Recession unfolded. They had to act fast, and they did; but five years down the road, with sovereign debt balloons swollen near to bursting worldwide, with markets in advanced and emerging nations alike swooning at the mere mention of the word tapering, and with the threat of a major global currency war staring us right in the face, the Fed may have just about r eached the end of its rope. But let's let Lacy and Van explain:

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Economics

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Bernanke vs. Yellen: A Spooky Economic Outlook? / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Axel_Merk

Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen will take over where her predecessor Ben Bernanke leaves off. Not just operationally, but also philosophically. To understand where the Fed and the U.S. dollar may be heading, we take a closer look at where Bernanke and Yellen are coming from.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

New Retirement Trend: One-Third of Americans Need to Work Until 80 / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: According to the just-released annual Wells Fargo & Company Middle Class Retirement Study, about 60% of middle-class Americans say that getting monthly bills paid is their top concern. This number stood at 52% in the 2012 study. (Source: Wells Fargo & Company, October 23, 2013.)

But there are more depressing results of the survey…

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Economics

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Four Years of Economic Recovery, So Why Don’t You Feel Richer? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Statistics can sometimes, as we all know, be very misleading. Take the unemployment report for example. If you examine the numbers out of context, you'd be forced to conclude that workforce participation has steadily increased over the last four years. A behind-the-scenes look at those numbers, however, reveals a startling discovery: most of those gains have occurred because job seekers have simply given up looking for a job.

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Economics

Monday, October 28, 2013

Economies are Not Destroyed in a Day / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Nicolás Cachanosky writes: Earlier this month, Argentina's leading conservative paper, La Nación published an unsigned editorial comparing the economies of Argentina and Venezuela. The editorial concluded that as economic freedom declines in Argentina, and as Argentina adopts more of what Chavez called “twenty-first century socialism,” it is becoming increasingly similar to Venezuela. Is this true? Will Argentina suffer the same fate as Venezuela where poverty is increasing and toilet paper can be a luxury?

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Economics

Sunday, October 27, 2013

How to Protect Your Money When the U.S. Debt Bill Comes Due / Economics / US Debt

By: EWI

Dear Reader

Ever heard of a wedding crasher? You know -- that distant “cousin” who shows up uninvited, hangs around the open bar all night, chugs down double-everythings and falls on his butt on the dance floor -- all before mysteriously vanishing and leaving his night of indulgence on the father of the bride’s tab.

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Economics

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Peak Prosperity - The Fed Can Only Fail. And We'll All Lose / Economics / US Debt

By: Dr_Martenson

The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation.

The mind-boggling part about all this is that it's not really all that hard to grasp.

Our collective predicament is simply this: Nothing can grow forever.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, October 25, 2013

Deflationary Forces Stymie the Fed's Economic Rescue Efforts / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

See a stunning chart of the Federal Reserve's assets

The Federal Reserve's efforts to rescue the economy have been historically aggressive, starting with the initial round of quantitative easing in 2008 and continuing through 2013.

The central bank's assets have skyrocketed due to the Fed's bond purchases, which you can see clearly in this eye-opening report that Robert Prechter presented to the Market Technicians Association and his Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Structural Demographic Trends in U.S. Employment Data / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

The first chart below splits up the LFPR data since 1948 in two ways: by age and by gender. For the former, I chose the 25-64 age cohorts to represent what we traditionally think of as the “productive” (pre-retirement age) work force. The BLS has data for ages 16 and over, but across this 64-year time frame college attendance has surged dramatically. So I opted for age 25 as the lower boundary to reduce the college-years skew.

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Economics

Thursday, October 24, 2013

What’s Really Behind China’s Economic Growth and Why It Won’t Last / Economics / China Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: When I read some of the headlines by other news organizations, sometimes I can’t help but chuckle at their oversimplification. Other media outlets take a kernel of truth, and ignore the rest of the picture, only to blow that tiny piece of truth out of proportion.

As an example, there was a recent release by the National Bureau of Statistics of China that reported the Chinese economy grew 7.8% year-over-year for the three months of July to September. (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, October 18, 2013.)

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Economics

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Lackluster U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Employment Report Leaves Fed on Hold / Economics / Employment

By: Victoria_Marklew

The sluggish hiring pace visible in the September employment report justifies the Federal Reserve’s decision to postpone tapering of asset purchases. Data for the September report were gathered prior to the government shutdown, but October employment numbers will contain distortions arising from not collecting data during the typical survey period, rendering comparisons difficult.

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Economics

Saturday, October 19, 2013

To Save Europe, Free the Markets / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: The current European economic strategy is to kick the can down the road. Debt levels in almost all European countries continue to rise and growth seems to be a long forgotten memory. The day of reckoning is around the corner, as Rudi Dornbush once warned, “[t]he crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought, and that’s sort of exactly the Mexican story. It took forever and then it took a night.”

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Economics

Sunday, October 06, 2013

U.S. Economy Heading For Another Economic Slump / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

“Slumping asset prices show a recession is probably on its way. … Stocks tend to fall more frequently and further than property values, so they are better recession-predictors.” - IMF research paper by economists John C. Bluedorn, Joerg Decressin and Marco E. Terrones.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Warning - Deflation Will Take the Most by Surprise / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Google searches offer an insightful glimpse into economic expectations

The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It's easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz -- and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Free Immigrants, Free Capital, Free Markets / Economics / Economic Theory

By: David_Howden

Early this year, the Saudi Arabian government decided to crack down on foreign workers. Writing for The Globe and Mail, Martin Dokoupil and Marwa Rashad argue that this will lead to a “stronger, more diverse economy.” In particular, they focus on the plethora of businesses open at the moment — more than they think is necessary — and the resultant reduction in both “unnecessary” labor and businesses that would be possible if these foreign workers were forced to leave.

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Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

America to Become the Next Poland? / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: I want to share with my readers a chart that I find very interesting. The chart below (courtesy of our research group) compares the number of Americans on food stamps since the so-called recovery began in the S&P 500.

As you can see for yourself, they are following the same trajectory! Our research shows that since late 2009, for every one-percent increase in food stamps usage in the U.S., the S&P 500 increased two percent!

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Economics

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Syria’s Other Problem: Inflation, 193% Hyper-Inflation War / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Wars wreak havoc; life, property, and dreams are destroyed. In the process, wars — including civil wars, like Syria’s— progressively consume a country’s accumulated capital stock, too. In other words, as wars rage on, the destructive war economy gradually eats away at productive assets like land, factory capacity, and raw materials. Just where this process leads was well illustrated by the great Austrian economist, Prof. Fritz Machlup, in a 1935 article about Austria’s World War I inflation:

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Economics

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Robert Prechter Warns Deflation Will Take the Majority by Surprise / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Google searches offer an insightful glimpse into economic expectations

The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It's easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz -- and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Iran Rouhani Delivers Lower Inflation, and other Troubled Currencies Project Updates / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Iran: Prior to Hassan Rouhani’s election as Iran’s new president in June, the black-market Iranian rial to U.S dollar (IRR/USD) exchange rate stood at 36150, implying an annual inflation rate of 109 percent (June 15th 2013). Since Rouhani took office, Iranian expectations about the economy have turned positive, or at least less negative, and the black-market IRR/USD exchange rate has strengthened to 29200. In consequence, the implied annual inflation rate has fallen like a stone, and currently sits at 20 percent. That’s even lower than the most recent official annual inflation rate of 35.1 percent. (August 2013).

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