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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, August 15, 2011

It is not Enough to Tell the Fed to Target Nominal GDP - You Have to Tell it How / Economics / Central Banks

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In the August 15 edition of the Financial Times, Clive Crook wrote an op-ed piece urging the Fed to target nominal GDP growth. This is not the worst Fed "mandate" that has been recommended. But it is not enough to recommend a mandate or a target to this Fed. You also have to explain to it how to maximize the probability of actually achieving its mandate. Targeting a fed funds rate won't do the trick, especially under current circumstances.

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Economics

Monday, August 15, 2011

Is Debt Deleveraging Bad for the Economy? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economic pundits have stressed more and more that this crisis is special because it involves "deleveraging," and for that reason isn't a run-of-the-mill recession. Because households and corporations are collectively trying to reduce their net indebtedness, it is allegedly up to the government to run massive budget deficits in order to prop up aggregate spending.

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Economics

Sunday, August 14, 2011

U.S. Long Winding Road to Debt Crisis Ends With a Bang / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI came away from Maine, and meeting with some of the most astute economists in the world, with a series of impressions that will be the core of this week's letter. On Friday night, S&P downgraded US debt, and of course I need to comment on that. But as we talked the next two days and into the nights, I came increasingly to the opinion that this is indeed the Beginning of the Endgame. I must admit it has come about faster than I thought. But that is the nature of these things. And so, with no "but first," let's jump right in.

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Economics

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Rethinking Depression Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne criticism of Austrian business-cycle theory is that it gives little insight as to what should be done to push an economy out of recession. Even accepting the premise that monetary overexpansion leads to a misallocation of capital goods, detractors claim that this says little in regards to the nature of the depression period. Leland Yeager, for example, argues that "Austrian economists can explain the continuing depression only lamely."[1] Lord Robert Skidelsky once made a similar comment in a live debate with George Selgin and Jamie Whyte.

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Economics

Friday, August 12, 2011

U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHyperinflationits have now blown it twice. First, they insisted hyperinflation would happen before deflation. They were wrong. Then, during the QE2 inspired equities and commodities ramp, they said the same thing. They were wrong again.

Prior to the Great Financial Crisis I had a bet with "Heli-Ben", a staunch hyperinflationist who insisted we would hyperinflation before deflation. I won the bet but have not yet received my prize, a "crying towel" from "Heli-Ben".

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Economics

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Double Dip Recession Facts and Economic Forecasts / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a growing fear that the U.S. economy is likely to experience another recession or a double dip in the quarters ahead. Robert Hall, prior Chairman of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), refers to a double dip as a long recession marked by a brief period of economic growth. He explains further that during a double dip “activity might rise for a period, but not far enough to complete a cycle, then fall again, and finally rise above its original level, only then completing the cycle." The U.S. has not experienced such an event in the post-1950 period (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Falling Oil Prices Will Stimulate Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

As shown in Chart 6, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $81.31 on August 8, the lowest price since November 23, 2010. Some talking heads on the cable financial news channels will tell you that this decline in oil prices could be the catalyst for stronger growth in consumer spending in the coming months. Could be, but might not be. You see, it all depends on why the price of crude oil has been falling since late April. If the price of crude is falling because there has been an increase in the supply of crude oil, then yes, this decline in the price of crude is positive for consumer spending and economic growth in general. But, if the decline in the price of crude is due to a decrease in the demand for crude oil, then the decline in the price of crude oil is symptomatic of weakening global economic growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Waiting for an Inverted Yield Curve to Signal an Imminent Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon’t hold your breath. As Chart 1 shows, moving from a positive spread between the yield on the Treasury 10-year security and the fed funds rate has more often than not in the past 55 years signaled the commencement of a recession on the near-term horizon. There have been a few miscues – instances when a recession occurred without the spread turning negative prior to the onset of the recession and some instances when the spread turned negative but a recession did not ensue. So, like so many other leading indicators, the negative-spread recession indicator is not foolproof.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

The Economics of US Healthcare, a Giant Ponzi Scheme? / Economics / Healthcare Sector

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGilbert G. Berdine writes: According to the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), national health expenditures were $2.5 trillion in 2009, or $8,086 per person. The usual critique of US healthcare discusses how the money is spent and argues that it could be better spent in other ways.

I will not discuss how the money is spent, because value is subjective. Instead, I will show that the United States cannot afford what it spends, and, as a result, the US healthcare system is a credit-induced bubble.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

The Stock Market Has Spoken: Economic Austerity Is Bad for Business / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt used to be that when the Fed Chairman spoke, the market listened; but the Chairman has lost his mystique.  Now when the market speaks, politicians listen.  Hopefully they heard what the market just said: government cutbacks are bad for business.  The government needs to spend more, not less.  Fortunately, there are viable ways to do this while still balancing the budget.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Yellow Fever Economy, Problem of Massive Debt / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFinancial columnists of the sky-is-sagging perspective have searched for an accurate metaphor to describe the current economy. We have all failed.

"A slow-motion train wreck" doesn't work, because train wrecks as bad as what we are facing are high-speed.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Emerging Markets Still Undervalued, Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week's e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can't rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can go to www.bloomberg.com and see everyone's remarks, including mine. It will be there somewhere, they promise me.

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Economics

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Debt And The Economic Degrowth Frontier / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWELL KNOWN LIMITS
There are basically two choices: degrowth by choice - or forced by uncontrolled debt growth finally becoming uncontrollable, and inevitably destroying economic growth.

The opposite "hopeful paradigm" is well known: the so-called "growth economy" is able to profit from rising amounts of debt relative to GDP for a long way up the curve. This is sure, but the single-minded  pursuit of growth pushes this mindless quest over the threshold into forced degrowth, when debt soars beyond well known thresholds.

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Economics

Friday, August 05, 2011

Mass Layoffs, Robots, Paints Dismal U.S. Jobs Siutation / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA good jobs report on Friday (if we get one) is now meaningless. Looking ahead, the jobs situation is bleak globally, not just in the US. Here is supporting evidence for my statement.

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Economics

Friday, August 05, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Holding At Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 400,000 for the week ended July 30. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 10,000 to 3.73 million. Initial jobless claims have ranged between 412,000 and 428,000 for three straight months. The main message is that firms are not hiring at a robust clip.

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