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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

US Economic Forecast for 2012 and the Presidential Election Year Cycle / Economics / US Economy

By: BATR

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it comes to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

China Economy, Gold 2012 And Von Mises’ Crack-Up Boom / Economics / China Economy

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit boom is built on the sands of banknotes and deposits. It must collapse… If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders.

Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 1949

I first attended the Canton Trade Fair in October 1976. All Chinese men and women were dressed in blue shirts and blue pants, bicycles were China’s main mode of transportation, Chairman Mao had just died and China’s mantra, “We will continue to support the policies of Chairman Mao Tse-Tung and criticize the policies of Deng Xiao-Ping”, was heard everywhere.

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Economics

Monday, January 02, 2012

Economic Collapse is the Number One Catastrophic Event That Americans Worry About / Economics / Great Depression II

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic Collapse writes: Can you guess what the number one catastrophic event that Americans worry about is? There are certainly many to choose from. Many Americans are deathly afraid of a major terrorist attack. Others live in constant fear of natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes. Still others are incredibly concerned that a massive pandemic will break out at any time or that World War III will erupt in the Middle East. Yes, there are certainly a lot of potential catastrophic events that one can worry about in the times in which we live, but the number one catastrophic event that Americans worry about is actually "economic collapse". At least that is what a recent survey conducted by Leiflin Inc. for the EcoHealth Alliance found. But this goes along with what so many other polls have found over the past few years. Over and over again, opinion polls have found that the number one issue that American voters are concerned about is the economy. The truth is that average Americans are deeply, deeply concerned about unemployment, debt, the housing crash and the steady decline in the standard of living. It has been years since the U.S. economy has operated at a "normal" level, and many Americans are afraid that things could soon get a whole lot worse.

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Economics

Sunday, January 01, 2012

Grim Economic Prospects for 2012, U.S. Fed to Overshadow the European Banking System / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePublic institutions worldwide are fighting ratings downgrades foremost of which is France, the US and, of course, sovereigns and banks worldwide. Miracles of miracles finally the rating agencies are doing their jobs. The caper they pulled in collusion with Wall Street in rating mortgage securities should have put them all in jail for life. We’ll call these efforts makeup time for their previous sins, which they never were prosecuted for. The complaint is their methodology is unreliable. We can assure you they know exactly what they are doing. The French want them to cease and desist. That is not going to work, because the French government and banks have very serious solvency problems. Central bankers and sovereigns always believe they are above the law. Eventually they all pay the price of greed and corruption.

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Economics

Saturday, December 31, 2011

China's Economic Future Deconstructed: Holmes vs. Chang / Economics / China Economy

By: The_Gold_Report

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina has become the $5.88 trillion question in the world financial equation for 2012. In an attempt to gauge the direction of this economic elephant, Cambridge House International is asking two China experts to debate the health of the second-largest economy at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference January 22. We called the two speakers for a preview of the tactics they will take in this epic debate.

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Economics

Friday, December 30, 2011

Five U.S. Economy Economic Blunders of 2011 and Five Fixes for 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes : Government's ability to fix the economy's problems may be limited, but it at least should try not to make matters worse. Unfortunately - but not surprisingly - many of the things that happened in Washington this year did the U.S. economy more harm than good. More than two years after the official end to the recession, the U.S. economy is still suffering through sluggish growth and an 8.6% unemployment rate. "They've been wrong from the beginning, and they're still wrong," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald of U.S. government policymakers. "It makes you wonder if any of these people passed Economics 101." That said, here are five of the government's worst economic blunders of 2011:

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Economics

Friday, December 30, 2011

Global Economic Collapse In 2012? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMORAL AND ECONOMIC DECLINE
This longstanding European genre-material for books, films, plays - and politics - dates from the end of the first world war, with a massive fillip in the 1930s long depression and rise of Stalin and Hitler, and this theme is surely back with a vengeance today. One reason is the decline isn't only economic, it is also moral, social and psychological and the track record for doing anything about it is bad, both in Europe, USA and Asia. The conventional solution, the historical precedent of the 1930s decline was Muddle Through ending with a world war, but thinking that today is unthinkable.

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Economics

Friday, December 30, 2011

Rising Systemic Risk and Multiple Black Swans, Gaping Chasm between Economics and Physics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: DK_Matai

VBest Financial Markets Analysis Articleiolation of the Laws of Physics?

Does today's dominant economic and financial thinking violate the laws of physics? Mainstream finance and economics have long been inconsistent with the underlying laws of thermodynamics, which are fast catching up as a result of globalisation.  At present, economics is the study of how people transform nature to meet their needs and it treats the exploitation of finite natural resources including energy, water, air, arable land and oceans as externalities, which they are not.  For example, we cannot pollute and damage natural ecosystems and their local communities ad infinitum without severe repercussions to their underlying sustainability. It is widely recognised both within the distinguished ATCA 5000 community across 120 countries and beyond that exchange rates instability, equity and commodity market speculation -- particularly fuel, food and finance -- and resultant volatilities as well as unsustainable levels of external debt are the main causes of asymmetric threats and disruption at the international level manifest as known unknowns, ie, low probability high impact risks and unknown unknowns or black swans. 

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Economics

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Bring on US Debt Default, Otherwise, it's Permanent Deficits and Unemployment / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThroughout the West, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Unemployment in these European nations ranges from 8.5% in Italy to over 20% in Spain.

For Europe as a whole, the figure is 10.3%. What is revealing is this: ever since 1995, it has been above 9% most of the time. Only in February 2008 did it fall to 7.3%. For workers under age 25, the figures are much worse. A generation of educated college graduates has become a lost generation.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2012 Offers Few Economic Reasons for Optimism / Economics / Recession 2012

By: John_Browne

As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Bretton Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Japanese Economy Slumps, Industrial Production Falls 2.6% / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA torrent of bad news hit Japan in November. Please consider some details from the Bloomberg article Japan Factory Output Falls on Global Slump

  • Factory output fell 2.6 percent from October
  • Exports fell for the second straight month
  • Capital spending in the third quarter dropped 9.8 percent
  • The Bank of Japan Tankan quarterly index of corporate sentiment fell to minus 4 this month. A negative figure indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists
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Economics

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Economic Collapse Stealth Mode In Asia - Jim Rogers Moves To China / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn interview with Lelde Smits of Australia's Finance News Network Jim Rogers said he is proud his two children speak Mandarin so well they can ask for a Big Mac in Pekin and not get a Donald Duck flashlight or a knockoff designer T shirt instead. Rogers said that Asia is weathering the storm and told Lelde Smits he has voted with his feet and set up shop in Singapore (because air pollution is so out of sight in mainland China's cities) but feared that Asia’s going to suffer, all the same, for sure and certain, because Europe and the USA are going down the tube.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

What Happened To Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe magical invention of economic growth needs the magic of invention, and technological-type invention is always around and available the optimists tell us. When it isn’t, like now, doctoring the numbers and letting them doctor themselves with false overvalued monetary units "measuring" the growth that is not there will pass muster, the optimists don’t tell us. Doctoring growth that isn't also draws on productivity gains that aren't, using the same vastly overvalued money units that "measure" growth: for how many years have we had productivity gains (or claims) at 6% or more every year ? In plenty of national cases, simply inverting claimed productivity gains, and claimed rates of inflation, will give a much more honest picture of what is going on. This now longstanding and traditional doctoring of the data, both deliberate and inadvertent, extended over 10 and 15 years or more, gives us vastly different readouts for the real situation: which is bad.

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Economics

Monday, December 26, 2011

A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year / Economics / China Economy

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.

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Economics

Saturday, December 24, 2011

U.S. the Payroll Tax 'Holiday' Extension a Festivus Miracle for GDP? / Economics / Taxes

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn recent days many economists were preparing to lower their 2012 GDP forecasts in case Congress could not reach an agreement to extend the 2% reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll (FICA) tax. I kept getting questions on how much I was going to lower my forecast if the tax holiday were not extended. And I kept responding, 0.0%.

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