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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Going into the EU referendum the vested interest academic economists from the Bank of England down were repeatedly issuing dire warnings of a plunge in sterling that would send inflation soaring that would trigger a series of interest rate hikes all whilst the economy collapsed. The prices in the shops as measured by official UK CPI Inflation was hugging near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016 data, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation was already above 1% at 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So official UK price Inflation was already well above 1% and trending towards 2% before BrExit.

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Economics

Monday, September 19, 2016

Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Fascist Business Model incorporates all the worse elements of Keynesian economics, a broken fallacious school of thought. The model also integrates a vast system of economic heresy, put forth as public address dogma. All their messages are wrong. They are instead aligned with support of the power structure where big banks conduct self-dealing and print money for themselves.

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Economics

Monday, September 19, 2016

China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Chinese “depreciation” and all its ensuing hysteria occurred just about a year ago. It has also been a about a year since I co-wrote a book on China with Worth Wray titled A Great Leap Forward?

The title was meant to be ironic. The original Great Leap Forward was imposed by Mao in the 1960s. It was one of the most economically disastrous times in Chinese history. Food production increased, yet 30 million people starved. China underwent a true financial and economic crisis due to the insanity of central control of markets.

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Economics

Sunday, September 18, 2016

American Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Over the years, we have written multiple times about the system of Keynesian economics, its dysfunction, and the fact that it is a pure lie. This has all been well-documented from studies, observations, right down to remarks made by Keynes himself regarding the long-term viability of his new faux economics.

However, from Keynesian economics, there has morphed another type of economics. A more ignorant and destructive type of scarce resource allocation – which is what economics really is after all – and this type is no respecter of persons, intellect, position, or influence. We could easily call it the economics of entitlement, but that would be misleading because when most think of entitlements, they think about Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. No, that’s not where the sense of American (and global) entitlement ends. It ends with the average working stiff who is paying 20% on a $40,000 / 7 -year truck loan with a balloon payment because his buddies told him he wasn’t cool if he didn’t have such a truck. There are zillions of other such examples of financial stupidity, however, nobody is bothering to tell these folks that they’re committing financial suicide. The banks certainly aren’t going to tell them. The government? Talk about the kettle and the pot. Or maybe there is too much legal pot. We certainly can’t legislate common sense, but we sure try to legislate away the consequences of foolish behavior.

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Economics

Monday, September 12, 2016

Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Michael_Pento

The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.” 

But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.

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Economics

Friday, September 09, 2016

Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft

and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand

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Economics

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Failure of Inflation Targeting?! / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.

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Economics

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Hyperinflation Versus Deflationary Collapse / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

If the thunder don’t get you, then the lightning will… The Grateful Dead, The Wheel(lyrics)

In the world of phenomena, everything has a beginning and an end; and today, the bankers’ endgame is moving closer to its inevitable resolution and demise. The question is no longer if, it is when and how.

The relationship between paper money and gold is causal in central banking’s collapse. When paper money was backed by gold, it (1) gave the bankers’ paper money its value and (2) constrained the ability of governments to print limitless amounts of money, as governments needed money backed by gold to balance trade deficits, i.e. value for value.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 07, 2016

BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Its now two months on from when the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, however subsequently a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests had propagandised both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, a message literally warning of economic collapse as the following warnings of doom from David Cameron, George Osborne and Mark Carney illustrate and that which many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality starting to dawn of a UK economy that is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several economic measures into and during the month of August.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 06, 2016

GDP is more of a fuzzy reflection of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

GDP is a fairly recent statistic. Though it is malleable in its construction, it can be contentious in its application. Yet the media tend to release GDP numbers as if they are an accurate reflection of the general economy.

GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose. But its use can lead to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic, monetary, and fiscal policy.

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Economics

Monday, September 05, 2016

UK Economy Post BrExit Boom, Bank of England, Treasury Economists, Journalists ALL WRONG! / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Two months on from the BrExit economic collapse apocalypse prophecies a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests painted both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, one of recession or even economic collapse that many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality stating that the UK economy is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several measures for the month of August.

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Economics

Sunday, September 04, 2016

The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: James_Quinn

There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.

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Economics

Saturday, September 03, 2016

John Maynard Keynes’ “General Theory” Eighty Years Later / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Antonius_Aquinas

To the economic and political detriment of the Western world and those economies beyond which have adopted its precepts, 2016 marks the eightieth anniversary of the publication of one of, if not, the most influential economics books ever penned, John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.  Sadly, even to this day, despite its thorough refutation by lights such as Henry Hazlitt and other eminent scholars, The General Theory, which spawned “Keynesianism” and its later variants, remains supreme in academics, financial markets, and public policy.

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Economics

Friday, September 02, 2016

Psychological Manipulation & Economic Deception are now the Order of the day / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Sol_Palha

A man has free choice to the extent that he is rational. St. Thomas Aquinas

It is possible if one takes the right actions to make money and remain relatively unscathed in such an environment. One cannot say the same for the masses because they are walking with their eyes wide shut. In other words, they do not see what’s happening; their heads are stuck in the sand. They are oblivious to what’s going around, and if you try to warn them, they are apt to strangle you. This situation is strikingly similar to “Plato’s allegory of the cave.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 01, 2016

“The Fly-in-the-Ointment” -> Stagnant Wages & Hidden Inflation / Economics / Wages

By: John_Mauldin

FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long discusses with Charles Hugh Smith about stagnating wages and high real inflation rates, using the IRS tax reports as a guide to real economic activity, and the likelihood of future tax increases.

WHY WAGES HAVE STAGNATED

“The statistics we rely on are becoming more and more suspicious.”

Statistics are now used for perception management rather than reflecting the real economy. Of all these statistics we’re relying on to reflect reality, some of them are really suspect. We’re trying to stick with the ones that are valid. GDP is flawed but still our bellwethers, and we’re still relying on FRED database.

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Economics

Thursday, September 01, 2016

BrExit Economic Collapse Evaporates into Boom as PMI Soars / Economics / BrExit

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest news out for the UK economy is that the post BrExit economic collapse as illustrated by the Purchasing Managers Index that during July fell sharply to 48.3 (a reading below 50 implies economic contraction) which most academic economists that populate the mainstream press concluded heralded the start of a severe imminent economic downtrend, an recession early warning.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

The Influx of Female Professionals is Changing Consumer Spending / Economics / Demographics

By: Rodney_Johnson

I recently dropped off my youngest at college for her freshman year. She’s finally free of the prison rules of high school, and can explore life as a young adult. I’ve given her a few pointers. OK, maybe a few thousand tips on what to do and what to avoid over the next four years.

I think I’m qualified. Her two older siblings are navigating college life just fine, with no police records and their online dignity still intact. I’m sure our parental guidance had a lot to do with this… or at least a little something.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

7 Things to Remember When Inflation Returns / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

The problem for much of the global economy since the Financial Crisis of 2008 has been a lack of inflation. The banking system seized up, and loans were hard to come by for a couple of years. This shock hurt economic growth and knocked inflation down to near zero. Many major economies were hit with outright deflation.

In response, global central banks—including the US Federal Reserve—began a massive series of stimulus programs. The goal was to help their national economies get back on track. But, the results have been mixed. The US economy is one of the few to show signs of life over the last year or so.

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Economics

Monday, August 29, 2016

Politics Is Getting in the Way of China’s Critical Economic Reforms / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Two important reports were recently published on the current state of the Chinese economy. The first was the IMF’s annual review. It said the outlook for China’s near-term growth had improved. But, it pointed out that corporate debt is rising. Also, capital outflows for 2016 will equal 2015’s at $1 trillion.

The second report was China’s monthly release of investment data. This showed that fixed asset investment growth in China slowed to 8.1% in July. According to Caixin, that’s the slowest year-to-date fixed asset investment growth in 16 years.

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Economics

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story / Economics / US Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Secular stagnation is said to be present when economic growth is negligible or nonexistent over a considerable span of time. Today, secular stagnation has become a popular mantra of the chattering classes, particularly in the United States. The idea is not new, however.

Alvin Hansen, an early and prominent Keynesian economist at Harvard University, popularized the notion of secular stagnation in the 1930s. In his presidential address to the American Economic Association in 1938, he asserted that the U.S. was a mature economy that was stuck in a rut. Hansen reasoned that technological innovations had come to an end; that the great American frontier (read: natural resources) was closed; and that population growth was stagnating. So, according to Hansen, investment opportunities would be scarce, and there would be nothing ahead except secular economic stagnation. The only way out was more government spending. It would be used to boost investment via public works projects. For Hansen and the Keynesians of that era, stagnation was a symptom of market failure, and the antidote was government largesse.

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