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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, April 03, 2017

Trump's Reflation Trade is Deflating / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The election of the 45th President brought with it great enthusiasm for the U.S. economy to break out of its eight-year growth malaise and to provide it with a huge adrenaline shot of inflation. But the optimism behind Trump's economic agenda took a serious blow with the inability of House Republicans to even get a vote on repealing and replacing Obamacare.

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Economics

Sunday, April 02, 2017

Maybe The US Economic Recovery Wasn’t Real After All / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking through the Fed’s 2% target, and most measures of consumer sentiment were bordering on euphoric.

Then it all started to evaporate. Lackluster manufacturing and consumer spending reports sent the Atlanta Fed’s reading of Q1 GDP off a cliff to less than 1%:

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Economics

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Last G-20 Meeting Marks the End of Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.

In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Charts That Reveal US Real Employment Status and It’s Not Good / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

The “labor force” from which we get unemployment statistics includes only those people who are either working or wish to be working.

It ignores the retired, those in school, the disabled, and nonworking spouses—as well as those who are not interested in working.

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Economics

Sunday, March 26, 2017

China’s Rise in Global Robotics: Toward Consolidation / Economics / Robotics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Chinese robotics is positioned for leadership in global robotics, as the emerging industry is moving toward increasing rivalry and consolidation.

In the new and emerging industry, the rise of innovative robotics startups heralds the future. In 2016, almost 130 companies were funded by venture capital, including China-based RooBo, Israeli Roboteam, and German ReActive Robotics. While the most valuable deals involved unmanned aerial systems companies (read: drones), they were followed by agricultural robotics, service robots for businesses and personal use.
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Economics

Friday, March 24, 2017

Maps That Explain Why North America Economy Will Flourish / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The world has seen great change since the end of the Cold War. For much of the past two millennia, political, military, and economic strength has been based in Eurasia. And, since the 1500s, mostly in Europe.

This is no longer true.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the world’s one top power has been in North America. North America is now the center of the international political system. Mainly because of the power of the United States.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move / Economics / Employment

By: David_Galland

By Stephen McBride: In January, 19 US states raised their respective minimum wages. Washington was among the most generous, hiking by $1.53 (bringing it to $11 per hour). Arizona got an increase of $1.95—their “bottom rung” now sits at $10 per hour.

In all, 4.3 million workers are slated to receive a hike as they earn less than the new minimum wage in their respective states. Well, that’s what’s meant to happen. Judging by the fallout from recent hikes, it seems things aren’t going according to plan.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The implications of sterling's sharp drop in the wake of the Brexit vote were inflationary resulting in an an increase the price of imports and therefore has been exerting upwards pressure on shop prices as suppliers restock at the worse exchange rate that already depressed retailers such as the big supermarkets had delayed fully implementing that is likely to result in a crisis for the retail sector during 2017 that literally faces a perfect storm, that could even result in a Woolworth's moment...

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Economics

Monday, March 20, 2017

Small Business Survey Says… Ignore the Hard Data at Your Peril / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Surveys of both consumers and businesses show there is an extreme level of confidence regarding future GDP growth. Consumer confidence is now at its highest level since 2001. Small and medium-sized business owners, the driving force of growth in the economy, appear downright giddy; as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index recently soared to its highest level since 2004.

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Economics

Friday, March 17, 2017

Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

By Reva Goujon and Matthew Bey : It took more than a decade and three presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, to conceive and craft the North American Free Trade Agreement. Will a single presidency manage to undo the process of North American integration? While the risk is real, the reality may be less dramatic.

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Economics

Thursday, March 16, 2017

China’s Economic Miracle Is Over / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress that China’s GDP growth rate would drop from 7% in 2016 to 6.5% this year. In 2016, the country’s growth rate was the lowest it has been since 1990.

The precision with which any country’s economic growth is measured is dubious, since it’s hard to measure the economic activity of hundreds of millions of people and businesses. But the reliability of China’s economic numbers has always been taken with a larger grain of salt than in most countries. We suspect that China’s economy is growing less than 6.5%, if at all.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Desperate Saudi Arabia Turns to Asia for Investment / Economics / Saudi Arabia

By: John_Mauldin

BY XANDER SNYDER : King Salman of Saudi Arabia visited Malaysia on February 26. It was the first trip to the country for a Saudi monarch in over a decade. In his tour through Asia, visits also included Brunei, Japan, China, and Indonesia. Jakarta has not received a formal Saudi visitation in nearly five decades.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Startups Will Define the Future of US Employment / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Research shows that technology has net-net created far more jobs than it has destroyed. A recent study by Deloitte drew on data going back to 1871 in England and Wales and found that technology has been a job-creating machine.

Part of that is because technology increases people’s spending power, which creates a surge in the demand for hairdressers, bar staff, etc.

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Economics

Monday, March 13, 2017

The U.S. Economy, Post-Payrolls & Pre-FOMC / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_Tanashian

This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals.  With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.

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Economics

Monday, March 13, 2017

Is Stagflation Stalking? The Answer Is Critical To Your Financial Health! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Gordon_T_Long

It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk.

We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global Fund Manger Survey, many believe if we don't already have elevated Inflation and an emerging period of stagflation, we can soon expect it!

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Economics

Friday, March 10, 2017

Why the US Will Lose Tens of Millions of Jobs in the Next 20 Years / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

A significant part of Trump’s campaign centered on the angst of the white middle class and the ongoing loss of jobs in the Rust Belt. And that focus gave him his margin of victory.

Trump promised to bring those jobs back, a sentiment that resonated powerfully with the electorate. The problem is—as we’ve talked about previously—that at least 80–90% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation.

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Economics

Friday, March 10, 2017

American Men Are Giving Up on Jobs / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve written about this before, but there are 10 million American males between the age of 24 and 64 who have literally dropped out of the workforce. It means that they have given up on finding a job or are simply not looking.

But, focusing on just one subset among those who are 24–64, we see that white working-class males’ labor force participation rate has dropped to 59%.

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Economics

Friday, March 10, 2017

Is Inflation a problem? / Economics / Inflation

By: Submissions

Chris Marchese writes: Since “Surprise 16” when Donald Trump won the presidential election, he has made it clear that if he has his way, he will enact inflationary policies. These include increasing defense spending and infrastructure spending, while at the same time reducing government revenue via decreased income and corporate tax rates.

To achieve this objective, money must be created, which could be referred to as “helicopter money.” This is a more direct way of increasing the money supply, using fiscal policy as opposed to monetary policy.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Inflation the Opium of the Masses, What The Hell Is Going On? (2) / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

In Part One of this article I exposed the establishment narrative of a strong economy as rubbish by providing hard data regarding imploding gasoline usage, failing bricks and mortar retailers and plunging restaurant sales.

“Inflation may indeed bring benefits for a short time to favored groups, but only at the expense of others. And in the long run it brings ruinous consequences to the whole community. Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital. When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment—whether in the form of machines, factories or office buildings—cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.Nor is it possible to bring inflation to a smooth and gentle stop, and so avert a subsequent depression.” – Henry Hazlitt – Economics in One Lesson

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Economics

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Accelerating Economic Reform Execution in China / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After political consolidation, China is ready to begin a broader implementation of structural reforms. That is vital to double per capita income in 2010-20.

After President Xi assumed office in fall 2012, Chinese leadership has steadily moved toward more comprehensive structural reforms. As evidenced by the recent Two Sessions in Beijing, these reforms are about to move to a new level.
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