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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, September 18, 2017

Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.

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Economics

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Predictability.
People.

Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.

It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Economics

Friday, September 15, 2017

Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates / Economics / Inflation

By: Dan_Amerman

Summary:

1) Financial analysis of the three way relationship between interest rates, inflation and the U.S. national debt.

2) Higher interest rates causing higher interest payments on the $20 trillion national debt would ordinarily cause soaring deficits over time.

3) Detailed analysis of the "loophole", which is that if inflation even moderately increases - then interest rates can rise without exploding the real debt.

4) This simultaneous increase in interest rates and inflation would have a major impact on all markets, as well as long term retirement planning.

5) The logical response to rising interest rates may be to sharpen one's focus on how to better deal with higher rates of inflation over the long term.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Harvey Will Reflect in Economic Data as Growth—That Might Mislead the Fed into Another Policy Error / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc on South Texas and Louisiana. As a lifelong Texan, I have many friends in that region. They’ve lived through many storms and normally take what nature throws at them in stride.

Not this time.

I am seeing headlines calling this a thousand-year flood. It seems that over 100,000 homes in Houston alone were flooded. Harvey meant business. Recovering from this storm will take a long time and a lot of resources.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The consensus circus that the mainstream press journalists rely upon to produce their daily copy i.e. economists, have once more been caught by surprise as UK inflation rockets higher to 2.9% for August up from 2.6% for July. Now standing on the threshold of breaking above 3% as the implications of sterling's sharp drop in the wake of the Brexit vote continues to feed through to rising import prices and therefore providing persistent upwards pressure on shop prices as suppliers restock at much worse exchange rates that already depressed retailers such as the big supermarkets had delayed fully implementing that I have ben warning all year was likely to result in a crisis for the retail sector during 2017, that literally faces a perfect storm which could even result in a Woolworth's moment...

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Economics

Monday, September 11, 2017

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Damage, America Can’t Afford to Rebuild / Economics / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

A number of people have argued over the past few days that Hurricane Harvey will NOT boost the US housing market. As if any such argument would or should be required. Hurricane Irma will not provide any such boost either. News about the ‘resurrection’ of New Orleans post-Katrina has pretty much dried up, but we know scores of people there never returned, in most cases because they couldn’t afford to.

And Katrina took place 12 years ago, well before the financial crisis. How do you think this will play out today? Houston is a rich city, but that doesn’t mean it’s full of rich people only. Most homeowners in the city and its surroundings have no flood insurance; they can’t afford it. But they still lost everything. So how will they rebuild?

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Economics

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Another Demographic D-Day is Coming for Japan / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Harry_Dent

D-Day.

Demographic death day.

Maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long term.

And Japan is facing its second one.

Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked – forever – in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
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Economics

Saturday, September 09, 2017

Deflation and the Markets; are deflationary forces here to stay / Economics / Deflation

By: Sol_Palha

Machines are worshipped because they are beautiful and valued because they confer power; they are hated because they are hideous and loathed because they impose slavery. Bertrand Russell

Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop.  While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs.  As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.

The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.

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Economics

Saturday, September 02, 2017

Leading China Expert Lays Down 9 Major Trends That Now Drive The Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Leland Miller is a leading expert on China’s financial system and a good friend of mine.

They regularly interview (if memory serves correctly) about 2000 large Chinese companies in every sector to get a good idea of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy.

There is nothing else like their work, and anybody who is investing large sums or who just does business in China gladly pays the six-figure price to get access to their data and research.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.

Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.

Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.

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Economics

Saturday, August 26, 2017

China’s Strategy for the Global Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

In the fall of 1993, I was sitting in class in grad school. We were using case studies to explore business management decisions. My professor walked through the history of Otis Elevators, noting that the company had reached market saturation and had choices to make.

I was sort of paying attention… sort of not.
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Economics

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

These 2 Charts Reinforce My Belief That We’ll Face A Recession In 12–18 Months / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Stock valuations are the discounted values of future earnings. Future earnings depend on future revenue, which may diminish whenever the future includes a recession. So, broad economic conditions are a big factor to watch in stock valuation.

Broad economic conditions depend ultimately on the consumer’s ability and willingness to spend money. And July’s retail sales report gave us a peek at that.

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Economics

Monday, August 21, 2017

The Coming Boom Of Productivity Will Get Our Economy Back On Track / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

My good friend Gary Shilling draws some crucial distinctions with respect to wage and jobs and explains why our perplexing US labor market is actually quite rational.

Gary and I share a fundamental optimism regarding our prospects for long-term economic growth, and in this report, he tells us why.

This kind of in-depth dissection of macro trends is what Gary is known for. So without further ado, I’ll let him take it from here.

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Economics

Friday, August 11, 2017

The Shocking Economic Truth About Russia / Economics / Russia

By: Harry_Dent

The Russian drama seems to intensify with each passing hour.

I certainly have my opinion on the matter, as, no doubt, do you. But it’s not my opinion that I want to share with you today. Instead, I want to share two charts that may well shed new light on recent events…

Here’s the first. I warn you, it’s shocking.
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Economics

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? / Economics / Inflation

By: Sol_Palha

Bankers know that history is inflationary and that money is the last thing a wise man will hoard.

William J. Durant

The Fed has been trying to create the illusion that inflation is an issue. The guys from the hard money camp also maintain that inflation is an issue and to a point they are right. Their definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply.  The Fed, on the other hand, defines inflation as an increase in prices.  The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply; rising prices are just the symptom of the disease.  This article from mises.org summarises this concept quite succulently 

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Economics

Saturday, August 05, 2017

China’s Growth Driven By Shadow Banking Is Potential Trigger For Next Global Recession / Economics / China

By: John_Mauldin

China is unstoppable.

GDP growth has slowed down to 6.9%, according to official numbers. The numbers are likely inflated, but the boom is still underway.

Reasonable estimates from knowledgeable observers still have China growing at 4–5%, which is rather remarkable given China’s size.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 02, 2017

Greenspan Warns Moving Into “Stagflation Not Seen Since the 1970s” / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldCore

– Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation
– “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s”
– This will not be “good for asset prices”
– 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3%
– Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’
– “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range
– Inflation will not stay at historically low levels
– Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value”
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan

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Economics

Friday, July 28, 2017

BEA US Economy Q2 2017 Estimates GDP Growth At 2.56% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.56% annual rate, up +1.14% from a downward revised first quarter.

Consumer spending rebounded, growing at a +1.93% annualized rate during the quarter, up +1.18% from the prior quarter and very similar to the fourth quarter of 2016. The inventory contraction of the prior quarter essentially disappeared (-0.02%), as did the previous robust growth in commercial fixed investment (at only +0.36%). Governmental spending rose slightly (+0.12%), reversing the prior quarter's contraction, and the growth rates for both exports (+0.48%) and imports (-0.31%) moderated.

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