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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Krugman's Icelandic Economic Miracle Debate, Round 2 / Economics / Economic Theory

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Krugman has long been an advocate of Keynesian economics, and a proponent of aggressive and expansionary fiscal policy drawing parallels between Japan's decade-long deflation and the current Great Recession.  Krugman also has also been writing quite extensively using Iceland as the poster child on the benefits of currency devaluation.     Krugman's latest endeavor on the so-called 'Icelandic Miracle' was when he posted on his NYT blog last month with the following chart showing the seemingly much better GDP growth from Iceland compared to Ireland, Estonia, Lativa, and Lithuania, the countries either in Euro or has a currency pegged to the Euro.  He then rhetorically remarked:   

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Economics

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Italy and Spain: Hard to Ignore Economic Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe euphoria of the EU summit of June 28-29 is fading as markets comprehend that the eurozone has only bought time but not addressed the fundamental fact that economic growth is necessary to secure the future of the eurozone. In other words, economic facts are hard to ignore. First, outstanding Italian sovereign debt is in the neighborhood of €1.8 trillion and that of Spanish sovereign debt is approaching €600 billion. Therefore, the firepower of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) of €500 billion is inadequate, even if the differing maturities of these securities are taken into consideration, in the current economic environment.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Factories Across the World Shift Gears / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey results for June were disappointing; with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 49.7 in June, down from 53.5 in the prior month. This is the first monthly reading below 50.0 since July 2009 (see Chart 1). Index readings above 50 denote an expansion, while those below 50.0 point to a contraction in activity.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Unmasking China, the Asian Giant / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChinese operas have been keeping audiences enthralled for hundreds of years with mythical characters, enchanting stories and elaborate masks that add drama and mystery. While this fantastical treatment is appreciated in the theatre, it isn't in global markets. Investors don't like mystery--think of how uncertainty has spooked markets in recent years.

Global investors are rarely privy to every detail about the economy; that's why it's necessary to rely on multiple data and research to make decisions and be cautious of extreme views that unnecessarily arouse suspicion, skepticism, and criticism. These opinions may grab headlines, but rarely do they help investors' portfolios.

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Economics

Monday, July 02, 2012

Hiding Inflation Results in Perma-Recession, The Next Great Keynesian Failure / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Andy_Sutton

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we enter Round 15, give or take a couple, of the heavyweight battle between economic laws and the (not so) Great Keynesian experiment at Normandy and elsewhere in Euroland, one must really begin to wonder what exactly the outcome will be in social terms. There is one point in the entire goings on that has been mentioned by several other analysts in covering the big picture of what ails the financial world that needs more attention and that is aggregate demand. We’re also going to take a look at some of the other tools that have been used in the past to ‘hide’ the effects of rampant monetary inflation, namely the deindustrialization of America and the rise of consumer credit.

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Economics

Monday, July 02, 2012

Can the U.S Economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: As the Eurozone teeters on the edge of a breakup, it begs the question: Can the U.S economy "de-couple" from the Eurozone debt crisis?

Ultimately, the answer comes down to fate of the euro. It's the linchpin to everything.

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Economics

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, Learning From the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jesse

Liaquat Ahamed, author of Lords of Finance, The Bankers Who Broke the World, discusses the parallels between the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis of today at The American Academy of Berlin.

I concur heartily with Mr. Ahamed on the primary causes of the bubble and collapse, especially with regard to the enormous policy errors of the Greenspan Fed.

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Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy Real GDP Composition Modified, Though Q1 Headline Remains Unchanged / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Although the headline was not changed, contributions of several components were modified. Consumer spending (+2.5% vs. +2.7% previous estimate), equipment and software (+3.5% vs. +3.9% previous estimate), exports (+4.2% vs. +7.2% prior estimate), inventories, and imports (+2.7% vs. +6.1% prior estimate) were revised down. Residential investment expenditures (+20% vs. +19.4% prior estimate) and structures (+1.9% vs. -3.3% prior estimate) were raised. In addition to the upward revisions, a smaller trade gap also helped to offset the downward revisions and leave the headline unchanged. There were upwards of each of the inflation measures.

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Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

Europe Seeking Exit from Economic Woes / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: William_R_Thomson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestment Round Table of Singapore Business Times

PANELLISTS:

Charles Dallara: Managing director, Institute of International Finance

Richard Koo: Chief economist, Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo

Eisuke Sakakibara: Former vice-finance minister for international affairs of Japan

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Economics

Friday, June 29, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible either, right? I mean 2% growth amid outright contraction in Europe is good. Perhaps the US has finally decoupled?

You don't need an economics degree (trust me on that one) to look underneath the hood and see that this "unchanged revision" was actually indicative of something more sinister. That the US economy is not only in trouble but is clearly "coupled."

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Economics

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Forget QE3, America Needs a Real Road and Job Stimulus / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow is the condition of roads that you drive On? Well, the roads that I drive on are so bad that they require a large truck or SUV to navigate at anything close to normal speeds. The potholes are alignment killers, and the horrible patches were slapped on so poorly that they become uneven speed bumps. And I reside in one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. with a lot of petro money that has done much better than most of other cities (e.g., the newly bankrupt Stockton, CA) during the financial downturn in the economy. It gets better yet; I'm talking about the better part of town instead of the lower revenue districts. So the question is how did we get to this state? And what are the likely solutions?

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Economics

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Here Comes the Hyperinfla​tionary Bailout Endgame / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Midas_Letter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn 2009, I wrote that the stimulus, tarp, and zero interest rates were going to result in a rally in the stock market, but that the fundamental causes of the 2008 financial crisis, of which the housing bubble collapse was only one outcome, were still present, and that the financial stimulus, which is effectively a tax on future generations, would compound those symptoms.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Global Economic Stalemate? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why Read: Because the referenced article is a well-balanced, well-written, very brief - albeit somewhat simplistic - overview of the economic models of the United States and the Eurozone. The article also speaks to China and briefly references Brazil and India.

Featured Article: An article Monday written by Robert Samuelson, a Washington Post syndicated columnist. In this article, Mr. Samuelson describes the economic model of:

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Economics

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

The Great Depression Again? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Read: Because it is foolish not to consider the possibility of depression, particularly in the face of the preponderance of commentary over the past many months that rampant inflation is on the horizon

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Economics

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

The Black Hole of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Global Picture and Where We Are Now

For the last few years we've watched as the Credit Crunch morphed into the Sovereign Debt crisis in Europe, which may re-cross the Atlantic to hit the U.S. Treasury market. During that time, we have watched a series of patch-up jobs on the crisis that have only succeeded in prolonging the crisis without any real structural remedies. We've also watched how central bankers have seen the 'buck' passed to them, when their role is strictly in support of government action that should have led the way. Central bankers are running out of tools to tackle the task they should never have been asked to tackle alone.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

What's Stifling U.S. Job Creation / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Excessive government regulation and uncertainty over tax policies are what's restraining companies from hiring, former General Electric (NYSE: GE) CEO Jack Welch said on CNBC last Wednesday.

Welch joins a large number of economists and pollsters trying to sort out why the U.S. economy in 2012 hasn't rebounded more strongly from the 2008-2009 recession.

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Economics

Monday, June 25, 2012

Just A Cyclic Economic Ripple Or Structural Long Term Recession ? / Economics / Recession

By: Andrew_McKillop


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor global media, the 2008 crisis was signalled by the so-called "near collapse" of banks, insurers and mortgage lenders like the UK's RBS and Northern Rock, the USA's JP Morgan, AIG and a string of smaller players like Bear Stearns, but was above all symbolized by the outright collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008. Since the start of 2012, revealing the supposed "surprising weakness" of the OECD economies, and the more (or really) surprising weakness of the Chinese and Indian economies, the events of recent months ram home the basic facts. Emerging from what in 2008 was a finance-sector crisis in the OECD, easily explained by the perils of casino capitalism operating on debt to get and then lose its betting chips, the subsequent and present financial collapse: 1) is systemic not temporary; and 2) is global, affecting every country in the world. Through globalization of the economy, and supposed "global integrated capitalism" we now have a globally integrated catastrophe.

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

An Austrian Defense of the Euro, Hayek versus Keynes / Economics / Euro

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIntroduction: The Ideal Monetary System
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: Theorists of the Austrian School have focused considerable effort on elucidating the ideal monetary system for a market economy. On a theoretical level, they have developed an entire theory of the business cycle that explains how credit expansion unbacked by real saving and orchestrated by central banks via a fractional-reserve-banking system repetitively generates economic cycles. On a historical level, they have described the spontaneous evolution of money and how coercive state intervention encouraged by powerful interest groups has distanced from the market and corrupted the natural evolution of banking institutions. On an ethical level, they have revealed the general legal requirements and principles of property rights with respect to banking contracts, principles that arise from the market economy itself and that, in turn, are essential to its proper functioning.[1]

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

The Unseen Economic Hand / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.

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Economics

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Leading U.S. Economic Indicators and the Yield Curve, Where’s All That Money Going? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.

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