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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, June 02, 2012

U.S. Economic Recovery Reality Bites / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that "recovery" in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, but in the end all we have is a guy in an ape suit. The economic recovery, that has been discussed so loudly and often in recent months, will be shown to be similarly mythical.

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Economics

Friday, June 01, 2012

U.S. Payroll's Disaster Made Worse by Grossly Distorted Unemployment Statistics / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • US Unemployment Rate rose .01 to 8.2%
  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,653,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,307,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,345,000.
  • This month the Civilian Labor Force rose by 642,000.
  • Those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 461,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
  • Those "Not in Labor Force" fell to 87,958,000 from last month's record high of 88,419,000.
  • By the Household Survey, the number of people employed rose by 422,000.
  • By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,479,000.
  • Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.8%
  • There are 8,098,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 245,000
  • Thus of the the net of 422,000 people presumably hired by the household survey, 245,000 were for part-time jobs.
  • Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) rose by 310,000.
  • Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
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Economics

Thursday, May 31, 2012

US Unemployment and the Ubiquitous 'Zombie Job' Market / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war…after all, we have a heart!

But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war – WWII in Europe – that the US didn’t have to get involved in either.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Labor Market Issues Hold Down U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in May / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped in May to 64.8 from 68.7 in the prior month. The sub-components of the index measuring the present situation (45.9 vs. 51.2 in April) and expectations of consumers (77.6 vs. 80.4 in April) declined in May. The current level of the Consumer Confidence Index is back to the mark seen in December. The Conference Board’s index is running counter to the improvement of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (79.3 vs. 76.3 in April). Labor market indicators play a big role in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index compared with the University of Michigan consumer optimism gauge.

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Economics

Monday, May 28, 2012

Euro-zone Crisis Will Hit Russia Hard / Economics / Russia

By: Pravda

The political collapse in Greece and Moody's downgrade of the rankings of 16 Spanish banks at once have led to the decline in stock indexes all over the world. In Russia, the head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, showed an optimistic reaction to such unpleasant news. Making a speech at the government last week, the official urged everyone not to panic. According to him, Russia is prepared to the crisis much better than it was four years ago.

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Economics

Saturday, May 26, 2012

What If California Were Greece? Is Europe Coming Together or Flying Apart? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is simply hard to tear your eyes away from the slow-motion train wreck that is Europe. Historians will be writing about this moment in time for centuries, and with an ever-present media we see it unfold before our eyes. And yes, we need to tear our gaze away from Europe and look around at what is happening in the rest of the world. There is about to be an eerily near-simultaneous ending to the quantitative easing by the four major central banks while global growth is slowing down. And so, while the future of Europe is up for grabs, the true danger to global markets and growth may be elsewhere. But, let’s do start with the seemingly obligatory tour of Europe.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Deflation Isn't the Enemy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe now live in a world where deflation has become public enemy number one. In this current economic environment, governments seek a condition of perpetual inflation in order to maintain the illusion of prosperity in the developed world. But in reality, deflation is the free-market approach to rectify a secular period of superfluous money supply growth, debt accumulation and asset price appreciation.

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Economics

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Economic Recovery Is an Illusion When Adjusted or Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: The_Gold_Report

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com newsletter, shines light on his interpretations of the GDP, CPI, unemployment and other government statistics in this exclusive Gold Report interview from the recent Recovery Reality Check conference. Highlights include what the money supply measures tell him and why QE3 will be a hard sell.

The Gold Report: John, at the recent Casey Research Recovery Reality Check conference you described the economic recovery heralded by the Obama administration as an illusion based largely on skewed inflation data. Can you walk us through why, based on your calculations, a recovery is impossible?

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Economics

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Europe and Eurozone Economy Q1 2012 GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why Read: Because in our fiat currency world continuing GDP growth is of huge importance.

Featured Article: An article earlier this week reported GDP growth for both the 17 country Eurozone and the 27 country European Union was 0.0% in Q1 2012. The European Union includes the 17 Eurozone countries.

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Economics

Friday, May 18, 2012

Will the Fed and the ECB Put in Place New Financial Accommodation? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed and the European Central (ECB) face different policy challenges at the moment but the nature of recent economic developments has raised the probability of both central banks likely to consider another round of monetary policy support, with the Fed having significantly more room to ponder compared with the ECB.

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Economics

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Europe An Accident Waiting to Happen, or 'Ever Closer To The Cliff'! / Economics / Unemployment

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Read: Because Youth Unemployment has to be at or near the top of both near-term and long-term economic issues that must be addressed, or if they aren't, bring the 'edge of the economic and societal cliff' ever closer.

Featured Article: A May 14 article focuses on Europe's youth unemployment numbers. The article reports that not only do many European countries currently suffer from serious youth unemployment rates, but also points out that while this may be a somewhat exacerbated problem currently, it is not a new phenomenon in many European countries. For example, the article reports that while youth unemployment rates have reached 51% in Greece and Spain, 36% in Italy, and 30% in Ireland, the average youth unemployment rate for the past 40 years has been:

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Economics

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Economic Recovery Via Shared Sacrifice, Cutting Government Spending, Deficit and Debts / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: The_Gold_Report

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf the people and politicians of the U.S. can't muster the will to reform Social Security and Medicare, the country will slide on down toward what internationally renowned economist Lacy Hunt calls the "bang point." What we'd face on the other side would be bad news indeed. But in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Hunt goes on to list a few steps to turn the tide on economic growth. The route won't be an easy one but it would address the debt and begin to improve living standards.

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Economics

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Economic Austerity Offers Europe their Only Hope / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing view amongst Keynesians is that the austerity measures being taken in Europe to prevent a complete currency and bond market collapse is the cause of their current recession. But blaming a recession on the idea that an insolvent government was finally forced into reducing its debt is like blaming a morning hangover on the fact that you eventually had to stop drinking the night before.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

The All-Important Question, Are Major Economies in Recovery? / Economics / Global Economy

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Casey Research writes: For pretty much everyone, no matter where they are located in the economic strata, few if any questions are more germane to making plans for the future than whether the US and other major global economies are in recovery.

Getting the answer to that question right is of special importance to investors and businesses.

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Economics

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Germany Waving the Euro-zone White Flag, Viva Los Rescates Financieros de los Bancos / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor quite some time in this letter I have been making the case that for the eurozone to survive, the European Central Bank would have to print more money than any of us can now imagine. That the sentiment among European leaders was that they were prepared for such a move was clear – except for Germany, which is haunted by fears of a return to the days of the Weimar Republic and hyperinflation.

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