Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 04, 2020
Pre-COVID US Economy Wasn’t All That Great Either / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The stock market and economy appear to be doing ok for the moment, as the incredibly dangerous bubble inflates further. This optimism is predicated on a plethora of COVID-19 Vaccines, which are projected to bring the economy back to its pre-COVID state of health. However, the problem with this line of thinking is that 2019 was anything but normal and healthy. It was a messy combination of a Fed slashing interest rates and re-imposing QE in order to achieve a rather mundane GDP growth rate of just 2.2%. The truth is, the pre-virus economic construct was built on Silly Sand—erected on top of asset bubbles, artificial interest rates and an avalanche of new debt issuance.
Not only will a return to “normalcy” merely bring us back to an anemic and non-viable economy, I want to highlight three things I’m watching out for during 2021 that could upend the economy and markets.
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Sunday, November 29, 2020
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: EWI
Interestingly, this economic measure's "retracement of the decline from February is a Fibonacci 61%"
The 7.4% GDP growth in Q3 notwithstanding, the evidence shows that the U.S. economy remains fragile.
Let's start off with this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets:
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Friday, November 20, 2020
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
After four long years of diminished prospects, stagnation and divisive geopolitics, four summits could show the way toward a better future.
Recently, Moscow hosted the 12th BRICS Summit. Malaysia is hosting the APEC Summit. And Riyadh will welcome the world leaders into the highly-anticipated G20 conference.
Importantly, these high-level events followed the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free-trade pact, which could help build multiple new paths toward a shared future.
The global economy is expected to shrink by 5 percent in 2020. World trade is likely to plummet by 20 percent. After misguided trade wars and the pandemic, global cooperation across all differences is vital to defeat the pandemic and facilitate economic recovery.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
China’s New 15-Year Vision: ‘Dual Circulation’ to Sustainable Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development pattern seeks to foster.
Last week, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) completed its fifth plenary session in Beijing.
Unlike all other major countries, China’s economy is rebounding and fueling global prospects.
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Sayonara U.S.A. / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Japanese word for goodbye is Sayonara. But it doesn’t just mean goodbye, it means goodbye forever. Unfortunately, that is what our country is doing to American Capitalism.
In the quixotic fantasy world of Keynesian economics, the more money a government borrows and prints the healthier the economy will become. Those who adhere to this philosophy also believe such profligacy comes without any negative economic consequences in the long run. This specious dogma contends that it is ok for a government to dig further into a big deficit hole during a recession because massive public spending will help the economy to climb out faster. And then, a government can cut spending in the good times, which leads to big budget surpluses.
The trouble with this theory is the time never arrives to bring the scales into balance. Case in point, during the pre-pandemic year 2019, the U.S. had a deficit that was equal to 5% of GDP—one of the worst figures since WWII. This deficit occurred during a time which was purported to be one of the best economies in history. Today, there are negotiations for yet another “stimulus” package after having already spending $3 trillion (15% of GDP) earlier this year. Speaker Pelosi and the Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion and Republican President Trump says, “I would like to see a bigger stimulus package, frankly, than either the democrats or Republicans are offering.”
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Friday, October 23, 2020
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Stinson
In 2021, the return to growth in major ASEAN economies rests on the containment of COVID-19, structural growth and global outlook. Due to rising deficits, debt and political volatility, the recovery will be bumpy.
Recently, the WHO stated that 1 in 10 people worldwide may have been infected by the coronavirus. Since the current world population is 7.8 billion, real infections would total 780 million rather than the 40 million confirmed cases today.
Among Southeast Asia’s major economies – ASEAN-6 - Indonesia and the Philippines have currently almost 360,000 confirmed cases each. According to WHO’s models, the real number could be 3.5 million or more.
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Monday, October 19, 2020
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
Economists who expected a quick recovery from this recession have been revising their forecasts. Mounting evidence suggests the May/June bounce was just that—a bounce, and not a return to prior trends.
I’ve been following Homebase, a payroll/HR data provider for small businesses, whose data gives us high-frequency and nearly real-time information. This is from their September report:
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Friday, October 16, 2020
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Recovery is coming because the economy has found a new equilibrium. That's what we are told. Except, that’s not what the data says.
Last week, I laid out the case that US government debt would be $50 trillion by 2030. That was using straight-line CBO projections along with the 2008 recovery pattern for government revenue.
I added in off-budget debt at its $269 billion yearly average. But now, USdebtclock.org projects off-budget deficit will rise by over $1 trillion this year.
With that in mind, it's not just that we'll have even higher debt by 2030. It's that this mounting debt will further slow the recovery.
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Thursday, October 15, 2020
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals investors faced choppy market seas this week. Gold bobbed to a slight decline while silver essentially treaded water through Thursday’s close. Both are advancing strongly today.
Metals markets are being overshadowed by equities markets. The S&P 500 broke out to a 5-week high on Thursday. The rally comes on a rising tide of Federal Reserve liquidity coupled with on again, off again hopes for a stimulus deal in Washington.
More stimulus is definitely coming. The only question is how many trillions and whether they get dished out before or after the election.
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Saturday, October 10, 2020
What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
Our economic prospects looked bleak back in March and April. Much of the economy was closed down, we didn’t know how bad the virus would get, and it was hard to see a good outcome.
Now the outlook is relatively better. Unemployment, GDP, and other indicators aren’t great but they’ve improved. Yet a “better” outlook isn’t necessarily a good one. It’s just “not as bad.”
Today’s numbers would be considered terrible if we weren’t comparing them to truly disastrous numbers from last spring. We avoided the worst because fiscal income replacement and business lifelines maintained consumer spending, and in some cases increased it.
If you fly a lot as I do (or used to), you’ve heard the term “stall speed.” An airplane needs to go a certain speed in order to stay aloft.
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Friday, October 09, 2020
Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The real US GDP plunged with a 31.4 percent annual rate in Q2 of 2020. In that regard, what’s next for the American economy and the gold market?We all know that the second quarter was disastrous for the US economy. And now, it’s official. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the third real GDP estimate in the Q2. According to the report, the real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 31.4 percent (slightly better than the second estimate of 31.7-percent plunge), or 9 percent more from the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019, as the chart below shows. In other words, the US economy has suffered the sharpest contraction since the government started keeping records in 1947.
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Saturday, October 03, 2020
Congressional Budget Office Tax Revenues Set to Surge! In 2 Years, That Is / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
All debt shares one common characteristic. A bill comes due at some point and, if the borrower doesn’t pay, the lender either loses their money or finds someone else to pay.
I’ve warned for several years now that our growing global debt load is unpayable. We will eventually “reorganize” it in what I call The Great Reset, likely later in this decade.
Recent developments suggest debt will be even bigger than I expected, to the tune of $50 trillion in the US by 2030. That's double what I expected just one year ago.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Kelsey_Williams
Some are calling it the “Greater Depression” but that still makes last century’s Depression of the 1930’s the point of reference. The Great Depression of the 1930s was bad, but what we are facing now is worse.
The Depression Of The 21st Century will likely end up being the new singular event of discussion and comparison for all financial and economic catastrophes. Questions of how much worse and how long it will last are difficult to answer. Predictions about the type and strength of potential recovery could be premature.
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Thursday, September 17, 2020
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Steven_Vincent
The protracted malaise of the 1970s, with high price inflation and GDP recession, signaled the advent of Peak Industrial Capitalism.
The maturation of the industrial sector of the economy and the onset of demographic growth challenges required the offsetting growth of the financial sector.
The standard of living has declined under Financialism, but the technology revolution has offset some of the negative associated trends.
Financialization has increasingly skimmed Economic Value out of the economic system into the pockets of a smaller and smaller group of elites as larger and larger percentages of the population have become more and more dependent on government programs.
What comes after Peak Financialization? Where do we go from here? As I have said in previous segments in this series, an Information-Based Economic System, Technocracy, Structural Unemployment and Universal Basic Income are some of the likely outcomes we can expect.
This article is part of an ongoing related series that explores an ongoing long-term secular systemic shift in markets, economics, politics and society. Readers might also like to read:
- Information Is The New Capital
- Understanding The Apparent Mismatch Between Current Economic Conditions and the Financial System
- Debt Financialization, Gross Domestic Product And The Systemic Paradigm Shift
The protracted malaise of the 1970s, with high price inflation and GDP recession, signaled the advent of Peak Industrial Capitalism. The creation of Economic Value from the transformational processes of industrial production (manufacturing, mining, utilities) began to reach its limits of expansion and growth.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Over the past month, gold has traded in a range with support around $1,900. Bulls have made a couple unsuccessful attempts to retake and hold above the $2,000 level following the sharp plunge below it on August 11th.
But we are likely to see a more decisive move in the gold market one way or the other in the days ahead.
The near-term outlook for precious metals markets may be determined by where the U.S. Dollar Index heads next. It has been basing out since August after trending lower earlier in the summer.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
Is this the End of Capitalism? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks at the facts of rampant government money printing to monetize government debt, permanent deficit spending on an epic scale, debt to GDP north of 100% all to finance social projects such as the UK government paying 80% of furloughed employee salaries, with similar or even greater government interventions in nations such as Germany. We'll this begs the question, how can our economies still be labeled as capitalist?
We are not living in capitalist nations, the slogans might be all about free market economies, capitalism, and theories preached of the boom bust cycle in the financial press and taught at universities, instead we tend to have the booms without the busts! Because we are NOT really living in capitalist economies!
Then what are we living in?
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Friday, September 11, 2020
The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
QE4EVER!
Virtually everything that cannot be easily printed is rocketing higher which includes GOLD! It's not hard to see why as a consequence of rampant money printing by governments across the world in the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic economic depression. For instance the UK alone looks set to print about £550 billion this year most of which will be monetized by the Bank of England so that the government can pay the wages of about 1/3rd of Britains workforce for a good 6 months with likely many more economic stimulus measures to follow over the next 6 months towards fighting the Pandemics dire economic consequences.
Whilst the United States has printed $2.2 trillion of stimulus dollars to date with at least another $1.3 trillion to come, that's $3.5 trillion which dwarfs the 2008 financial crisis bailout of $720 billion. Funneling stimulus checks on an epic scale into the back pockets of every working age citizen. Printing money has REAL consequences which is REAL inflation hence what we have been witnessing in markets across the spectrum, and whist I have yet to take a peak at the housing markets, I would not be surprised if the UK housing market at least will start to experience a money printing inflationary boom over the coming year, this despite the fact that people have less disposable income to buy housing, but more on that in a future article.
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Thursday, September 10, 2020
Inflation by Fiat / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2%, to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and primary mandate of stable prices. Then, in the wake of the Great Recession, it redefined stable prices as 2% inflation—even though that means the dollar’s purchasing power gets cut in half in 36 years. Now, following his latest Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell has adopted a new definition of stable prices; one where its new mandate will be to bring inflation above 2% with the same degree and duration in which it has fallen short of its 2% target.Just to be clear, the Fed has no idea what causes inflation. It also deliberately goes way out of its way to under measure it. Is it any wonder then that the Fed's historical record proves it has little ability to meet its own inflation target? As I explained in a commentary written a couple of month ago, the Fed has a tremendous amount of difficulty controlling inflation in either direction. In 7 out of the last 12 years, the Fed has been unable to achieve average annualized CPI of at least 2%. Therefore, 58% of the time the Fed has failed to reach its minimum inflation goal. Conversely, inflation spiked to double digits by 1975 and, after a brief pause in ’76-’77, eventually soared to 14.6% by early 1980. During this process, our central bank found it necessary to raise rates from 3.75% in February 1971, all the way to 20% by the middle of 1980. That doesn’t sound like inflation is easily managed does it? But the Fed is fond of trying to convince investors that is the case.
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Thursday, September 10, 2020
Unemployment Rate Drops. Will It Drag Gold Down? / Economics / Employment
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. labor market improved in August, although headlines paint too rosy a picture. What does it all mean for the gold market?Great news for the U.S. labor market: according to the BLS, the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era! To be more precise, the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August, as the chart below shows.
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Sunday, August 30, 2020
3 Truths That Will Define This 3-Part US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The economy recovery, when it comes—and it will—is going to be uneven.
In some parts of the economy, it's already starting. Other parts will be in what can only be described as a depression for quite some time. And still others are going to take off like a rocket ship.
This three-part economy won't fit compactly into the V- or U-shaped recovery that some are predicting (read: hoping) for. More likely, it will look like a "K."
Whether it's K-shaped or some other to-be-determined letter, there are three truths that will define this economic recovery:
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