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1.BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - Nadeem_Walayat
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5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - Nadeem_Walayat
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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Why the U.S. Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpeculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a "double dip" recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.

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Economics

Friday, October 21, 2011

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Index of Leading Indicators, Small But Noteworthy Positive Signals / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 403,000 during the week ended October 15. The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (403,000) is the lowest since the week ended April 23, 2011. That said, initial jobless claims are still holding at a worrisome level. In other words, a large drop in initial jobless claims is necessary to say that the worst is behind us. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 25,000 to 3.719 million.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Does The Economy Need a Referee? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jeff_Berwick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI recently appeared on Max Keiser’s "On The Edge" program.  Unbeknownst to the viewer, we were having major communication problems.  Max only could hear a small portion of what I said and I, likewise.  But, right at the very end of the interview the communications worked again… that’s when the interview finally got interesting.  Max stated that we “need a referee” in the economy.  I replied, “I disagree.  We don’t need a referee, I’m an anarchist…”

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

U.S. Inflation Shows Signs of Moderation in September / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up 0.3% in September, following gains of 0.5% and 0.5% in July and August, respectively. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.05% in September after a 0.24% increase in August. The September increase is the smallest gain since March 2011 (see Chart 1). These signs of moderation in inflation are noteworthy because they allow the Fed to focus on growth in the inflation-growth debate.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Murder of the Savers, Killed by Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSavers and pensioners! Your murderers need no revolution to storm your stately homes and palaces...

IT'S NOW 100 years since Great Britain established its welfare state. Shortly after, and as the First World War kicked off, it abandoned the free exchange of bullion for notes under the classical Gold Standard.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Nouriel Roubini's Global Research Brand vs. His Prescription for the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini has called the economic crisis rather well. He gas gone on to turn success at RGE into an "economic brand". The Institutional Investor has an 8-page article on How Nouriel Roubini Became a Research Brand.

The article also notes that Roubini has been in the inner economic circles at the World Economic Forum at Davos, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the U.S. Congress.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Fed’s Dual Mandate Not Workin, Inflation and Unemployment Are Rising / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

We are all aware that the Fed has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. But what may come as a surprise to most is that they have a distinct preference in their mandates. The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke has a clear bias towards fulfilling the goal of maximum employment. Given the situation where unemployment is high and prices are relatively stable, the Fed has opted to pursue a policy of pursuing higher inflation in the hopes of engendering lower unemployment rates.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

U.S. Economy Operating in Midst of a Long-term Slump, Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management write a "Quarterly Review and Outlook" that is a must-read for me. This quarter they focus on US monetary policy, noting that "After peaking at 1.69 in the second quarter of 2010, M2 velocity declined for four consecutive quarters, and we estimate that a major contraction in velocity to 1.59 is likely for the third quarter." (I mentioned the importance of the velocity of money in judging inflation vs. deflation prospects in this week's e-letter, too.)

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Economics

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

UK Inflation Accelerates to CPI 5.2%, Bankrupt Britain's Stealth Debt Default Continues / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK CPI Inflation smashed through the 5% barrier by rising to 5.2% for September (4.5%), which is now approaching near triple the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank whose primary remit is supposedly price stability, where 3% was supposed to have been the maximum level a break above which was supposedly to trigger a series of panic measures to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to print money as it recently announced another £75 billion of electronic money printing that the fractional reserve banking system would eventually leverage to over £1 trillion, for the primary objective for the monetization of government debt, i.e. the same policy that the Weimar republic had been engaged in on its path towards hyperinflation. UK public debt is probably being monetized at the rate of 15% per annum with approx 30% monetized to date, only the deflation fools and the vested interest academic economists cannot or choose not to realise the highly inflationary consequences of governments monetizing their debt.

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Economics

Monday, October 17, 2011

Bursting of the Debt Bubble, Evaporation of Wealth on a Vast Scale / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bursting of the "debt bubble" which started in 2008 is far from over. It's the financial story of our age and it's happening before our eyes. The full scope is hard to keep up with because it's unfolding at various levels. The top level is the sovereign debt crisis:

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Economics

Sunday, October 16, 2011

The Pitfall Of Rock Star Economists / Economics / Economic Theory

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe whole idea of going to University and studying Economics, replete with a thorough understanding of the importance of analyzing economic data points seems to be lost on these Rock Star Economists who dominate the financial media landscape these days. The only barometer these so called economists utilize is: “Oh, the stock market has been selling off hard for two weeks we must be in a recession”!

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Economics

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Hyperinflation, Can It Happen Here? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans." - R.H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926

"By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. - John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace

"Unemployed men took one or two rucksacks and went from peasant to peasant. They even took the train to favorable locations to get foodstuffs illegally which they sold afterwards in the town at three or fourfold the prices they had paid themselves. First the peasants were happy about the great amount of paper money which rained into their houses for their eggs and butter… However, when they came to town with their full briefcases to buy goods, they discovered to their chagrin that, whereas they had only asked for a fivefold price for their produce, the prices for scythe, hammer and cauldron, which they wanted to buy, had risen by a factor of 50." - Stefan Zweig, The World of Yesterday, 1944.

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Economics

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Economic Crisis in Europe; Unpayable Debts, Impending Financial Insolvency / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big question is will Greece succumb to insolvency in November? Our answer is probably not. It should take 3 to 6 months but it is coming no matter how much money and credit is thrown at the problem. The markets on the short-term basis believe it is a coin toss. If the funds are not forthcoming you could see a 60-80 percent haircut on bond losses. If it is 3 to 6 months it will probably be 100%. Many in Europe believe the Merkel-Sarkozy team has a plan that will work, but as yet we do not know what that plan is. In spite of that the euro this past week rallied from $1.32 to $1.38 as the US dollar fell lower.

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Economics

Saturday, October 15, 2011

U.S. September Retail Sales Noteworthy Pickup, But Q3 Consumer Spending is Tepid / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRetail sales rose 1.1% in September, after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in August (previously reported as unchanged). Strong auto sales (+3.6%) and a 1.2% jump in gasoline sales were only part of the story. Purchases of apparel (+1.3%), furniture (+1.1%), and general merchandise (+0.7%) also advanced in September. In the third quarter, total retail sales increased at an annual rate of 4.5% vs. 4.7% in the second quarter. Excluding gasoline, retail sales move up at annual rate 4.6% in the third quarter vs. 3.1% in the second quarter.

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Economics

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Bank of England's Quantitative Inflation Bankster's Paradise Inflationary Depression Economy / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England recently hit the panic button again by announcing another print run of £75 billion (electronically), which is in addition to the £200 billion already printed since March 2009. The news has been accompanied by much economic propaganda across the media sphere from the Bank Governor Mervyn King and Politicians including Osbourne and Cameron to the BBC's journalists / pseudo economists virtually all in unison reading from the same script of printing £75 billion being necessary to boost the UK economy in the face of the imminent threat of Recession / Deflation.

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