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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, May 06, 2012

Savings, investment, and the Keynesian preference, a follow-up / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: Alasdair_Macleod

There is a general belief that government finances are somehow immune from the financial reality faced by everyone else – an illusion fostered by bond markets and supported by the public’s wishful thinking. Look no further than the plight of the eurozone for evidence of the reality. Not only that, but history tells us that countries regularly default, yet we continue to buy government bonds in the belief they are less risky than any private sector debt. And if we begin to question the status quo, we are even told by financial regulators that government debt is less risky than anything else. Banking regulation enshrines it in Basel Committee guidelines, and modern portfolio theory – which guides securities regulation – casts it in stone.

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Economics

Saturday, May 05, 2012

U.S. Systemic Jobs Crisis / Economics / Unemployment

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJoseph Kishore writes: Only 115,000 jobs were added in the US in April, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was significantly below expectations, and was the smallest gain in six months. It was well below the revised figure of 154,000 jobs added in March.

The official unemployment rate, which bears little resemblance to the actual level of joblessness, fell from 8.2 to 8.1 percent. This was due largely to the fact that more people gave up looking for work, and therefore are not counted as unemployed.

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Economics

Friday, May 04, 2012

Europe Is A Bigger Problem Than The Slowing U.S. Economy! / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Sy_Harding

Here’s the problem in just a handful of words.

Germany is Europe’s strongest economy. Yet even its Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 46.2 in April from 48.4 in March. Any number below 50 indicates recessionary contraction. So the further plunge in its PMI has even Europe’s strongest economy sitting on the edge of a potential recession.

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Economics

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Will Germany Economic Growth Reaccelerate Soon? / Economics / Germany

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Germany fell to 46.9 in April, which is a nearly three-year low. In other words, Germany, the juggernaut of the region, is experiencing a noticeable setback in factory activity. PMIs of nations have a strong positive relationship with GDP.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Europe Crisis from a European Perspective / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlasdair Macleod writes: The purpose of this report is to give readers the essential background to the economic problems in Europe and to bring you up-to-date in what has become a fast-moving situation. At the time of writing, there has been a lull in the news flow, but that does not mean the problems are under control. Far from it.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

U.S. Consumers Still Key to Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat I like most about Gary Shilling's economic analysis is that it's thorough.In the piece that follows – an excerpt from Gary's monthly INSIGHT – he ranges from the importance of US consumer spending and the unemployment rate, to the actions of the Fed, to business cost cutting and productivity, to the housing crisis and household debt, to state and local government fiscal issues, to US exports– Etc.! So by time he gets ready to deliver conclusions, you know they're well-supported. And Gary's overall conclusion here, regarding the rest of 2012, is a strong one and maybe not quite what you'd expect.

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Economics

Saturday, April 28, 2012

U.S. Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5% growth with "whisper" numbers in the 3% range. As always on the surface this appears OK although one can easily argue this far into a "recovery" the economy should be growing at a faster pace. In fact the economy is closer to "stall speed" versus "escape velocity."

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Economics

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Spain At Economic Depression, Soaring Unemployment Rate to 23.6% / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVia email from Barclays Capital, Spain: Q1 unemployment rate rises; trend likely to continue into H1 2013.

This morning Spain released labour market statistics for Q1. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate rose to 23.6% from 23.1% in Q4 last year (Figure 1). We think that the labour market's deterioration is likely to continue over the next 3-4 quarters. We look for unemployment to peak at nearly 26% in H1 2013, before slowly starting to decline.

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Economics

Friday, April 27, 2012

U.S. Economy Having Difficulty Gaining Traction According to PIMCO's El-Erian / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg TV's Betty Liu spoke with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who said that the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional assistance if the economy weakens further, but there is "no immediate need" to do so.

El-Erian also said that the U.S economy needs to add 250,000 to 300,000 jobs every month if we are to "seriously start reducing unemployment to something that is acceptable," but that "the labor market is cooling off and doing so too early."

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Economics

Friday, April 27, 2012

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Two Steps Forward, One Step Backward? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

In the past few weeks, news from the labor market is pointing to less robust hiring than previously thought. Initial jobless claims slipped 1,000 and stand at 388,000 during the week ended April 21, the highest level since November 2011. The four-week moving average has risen to 381,750 from 363,000 during the week ended March 31. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, increased 3,000 to 3.315 million and have risen 44,000 in the last two weeks.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

IMF World Economic Outlook / Economics / Global Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Read:  Because this commentary links to the International Monetary Fund’s 2012 World Economic Outlook.  You ought to read the Executive Summary, even if you elect not to scan the entire document or listen to the 45 minute transcript of a related Press Briefing.

Featured Report:  The International Monetary Fund has just released its 2012 World Economic Outlook, sub-titled ‘Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain’.  At a high level, this IMF Outlook suggests:

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Global Economies Decoupling Myth Destroyed / Economics / Global Economy

By: Michael_Pento

would have thought that the decoupling myth between global economies would have been completely discredited after the events of this past credit crisis unfolded. Back in 2007 and early 2008, investors were very slowly coming to the realization that the U.S. centered real estate crisis was going to dramatically affect our domestic economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Pain in Spain, Debt Spiral and Housing Market Crash / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt really does seem to be All Spain All the Time, but there is a reason. Unlike Greece, Spain makes a difference to the eurozone. It may be both too big to allow to fail and too big to save. Last week I came across a very informative 50-page PowerPoint on the situation in Spain from Carmel Asset Management. It is too big to send, but I asked Jonathan Carmel to draft a smaller document with some of the key points. I find it compelling. You can access the entire PowerPoint on my website. If you are not registered with me, you will need to enter your email address and, if you would, your zip code or country. There is a lot if information and data in the report. It will certainly make you think.

I want to emphasize that I do not think Spain is hopeless. Rather, it has a narrow set of limited options that will require a great deal of austerity and economic pain on the part of Spain and significant help from the rest of Europe, combined with the forbearance and patience of the bond market or massive buying of Spanish bonds by the ECB for an extended period of time. I think it will need to be the latter, as the bond market is on the brink of breaking down on Spanish debt, failing a realistic path to economic balance and growth. The way ahead is most difficult and treacherous. It appears to me that at the end of the day only ECB participation can buy Spain the time it needs. If they give Spain the time, it can get through. But the pain will then be spread to the valuation of the euro and thus the entire eurozone.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

U.S. Mortgage Refinancing: Stimulative or Redistributive? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

This "etude" has nothing to do with today's economic or market events. Rather, it is a little "acorn" for you to bury today and dig up in the future when some partial-equilibrium yahoo on CNBC says that total spending in the economy will get a boost as households refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates. Yes, the folks doing the refinancing will now have more income left over after making their monthly mortgage payment to spend on other things.

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Economics

Friday, April 20, 2012

Get Ready for 'Hot' Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGregor Macdonald writes: Ideological deflationists and inflationists alike find themselves both facing the same problem. The former still carry the torch for a vicious deflationary juggernaut sure to overpower the actions of the mightiest central banks on the planet. The latter keep expecting not merely a strong inflation but a breakout of hyperinflation.

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Economics

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Mark-to-Market: From David Hume to Adam Smith…From Ludwig von Mises to Hiroshima / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom Daniel James Sanchez of the Mises Institute (somewhat condensed):

According to Ludwig von Mises, the notion of money as a measure of value is an artifact of the "classical economics" of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill, who, by and large believed that value was an objective attribute of “goods”. Economic actors, according to classical theory, only exchanged goods if the respective values were equal.

Mises had another theory which he called the subjective-marginal-utility theory of value, where value is derived from utility and valuation is a matter of preferring one set of goods over another, according to the goods' respective utilities.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Must Understand Issue – U.S. Unemployment! / Economics / Unemployment

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why Read This:  Because it is important that when your read articles on Job Reports you understand what Structural Unemployment is, and what it means to economic growth.

Featured Article:  An April 9 article by Joe Duarte discusses the April 6 U.S. Jobs Report in the context of Structural Unemployment.  In his article, Duarte concludes:

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Economics

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Falling Standard of Living for Average American's, Debt/Income/Productivity / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLacy Hunt kicks things off with a bang in Hoisington's Quarterly Review and Outlook, this week's Outside the Box:

"The standard of living of the average American continues to fall."

The reason, in a word: debt. Lacy explains what happens:

"Efforts by fiscal and monetary authorities to sustain growth by further debt accumulation may produce some short-term benefit. Sadly, these interludes fade quickly as the debt becomes more destabilizing. The net result of increased indebtedness then becomes the opposite of what policymakers intend when they promote economic growth by either borrowing funds for increased government expenditures or encourage consumers to borrow with artificial and temporary incentives."

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Economics

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Seniors Worried about the Debt They Are Passing on to Their Heirs? / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI recently celebrated my 65th birthday, which allowed me to become eligible for Medicare. On May 1, I will begin collecting Social Security benefits. I was curious to see what has been happening to combined federal expenditures on Social Security and Medicare in relation to total federal expenditures excluding those for national defense. My curiosity was satisfied by the data in Chart 1.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The Cyclical Macroeconomic Impact of Taxmageddon 2013 / Economics / Taxes

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

As you file your 2011 federal income taxes, you are being bombarded in the media with frightening talk about an impending Taxmageddon befalling us as we wake up on January 1, 2013. Of course, if some of the more apocalyptic predictions of the coming end on December 21, 2012, of the “Long Count” Mayan calendar come to pass, then we will not have to concern ourselves with Taxmageddon 2013. But assuming that most of us will be around for January 1, 2013, what is Taxmageddon all about and what will be its cyclical macroeconomic impact on the U.S. economy?

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