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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, January 30, 2012

Is World Trade Falling Like A Lead Balloon Minus Terminal Velocity? Alarming Collapse of Baltic Dry Index / Economics / Recession 2012

By: BATR

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSignificance of BDI

Is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) one of the most significant leading economic indicators to follow when the media is telling us the global economy is looking great one week and then predicting a double dip recession the next?  We are increasingly concerned about the substantial decline in global shipping’s Baltic Dry Index.  Is this a significant canary in the mine shaft in regard to what lies ahead for world trade dynamics, global aggregate demand and trans-national economic and financial activity?

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Economics

Sunday, January 29, 2012

U.S. Economy Q4 2011 GDP Trouble Below The Surface / Economics / US Dollar

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe release of Q4 2011 GDP highlighted just how close the US economy is to actual contraction as well as how vulnerable it is to the events in Europe. On the surface the 2.8% growth was a nice rebound from the 1.8% growth in Q3 2011.

But like anything if you dig beneath the headline you will see three areas of concern. Interesting that just two days before this release when asked about the recent uptick in economic activity Chairman Bernanke was less optimistic than the reporter asking the question. Apparently he was privy to the soon to be released data.

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Economics

Saturday, January 28, 2012

U.S. Economy Waist Deep in the Big Muddy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road map for economists and investors to follow. The signposts are easily understood: the Fed will stop at nothing in pursuing its goals of creating phantom GDP growth, holding down unemployment, propping up stock and housing prices, and monetizing government debt. To do so, it will continue to pursue a policy of negative interest rates, while ignoring the collateral damage of unsustainable debt, virulent inflation, misallocated resources and credit, suffering yield-dependent retirees, and a devalued U.S. currency.

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Economics

Friday, January 27, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP on Recession Track / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe headline real GDP number of 2.8% does not sound too bad until you dig beneath the surface. A full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% was inventory replenishment. Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is on a recession track as well.

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Economics

Friday, January 27, 2012

Is the United States in a Liquidity Trap? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Shostak

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

If nothing else, we've learned that the liquidity trap is neither a figment of our imaginations nor something that only happens in Japan; it's a very real threat, and if and when it ends we should nonetheless be guarding against its return — which means that there's a very strong case both for a higher inflation target, and for aggressive policy when unemployment is high at low inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Slow Boat To China, Oil and Global Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn article of 26 January published by Bloomberg put it this way:
Container ships can’t go any slower.  Shipping lines are running out of options to stop losses as sailing speeds reach their lower limit, exhausting a solution that helped restore profitability in 2010.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

UK Recession 2012 Certain as Bank of England Prepares to Ramp Up Money Printing Presses / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK Economy was thrown into reverse gear in the final quarter of 2011 by contracting by GDP 0.2%, which may not sound like much but this does send a shock wave warning through the economy that a second recession is now near certain to be declared in April 2012 as measured by 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Premature U.S. Dollar Obituaries, Mainstream Economist Lessons from Great Depression Not Learned / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA pair of articles by Austrian economist professor Antal E. Fekete just might have one wondering who is more in the loony bin, mainstream economists like Krugman or those consistently chanting about the death of the dollar coupled with hyperinflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Chinese Whispers about China's Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJan Skoyles writes: Back in the 1980s any activity in the Chinese economy would have failed to interest anyone in the Western world. Back then they were only a seventh of the size of the US and their economic policies would have barely registered.

Since the 1980s China has seen an impressive transition from an emerging to an almost fully emerged economy. In just one generation’s time the Chinese economy will grow to $123 trillion – three times more than the entire world output of the year 2000. Robert Fogel predicts that by 2040 the Chinese economy will dwarf that of the US by growing to 3 times its size.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The GDP Growth Deception, Central Bank Manipulated Fake Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs 2012 begins, investors need to know the true health of the US economy. A major barometer is the Gross Domestic Product figure. The US economy generates nearly $14.5 trillion dollars annually in Gross Domestic Product or GDP. This is a measure of economic output. When GDP is expanding, we feel good about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. When GDP is contracting, we feel bad about the economy, our jobs, and our investments. Therefore, it is imperative for central bankers and political regimes to foster ever expanding GDP numbers. A happy populace is less likely to revolt and demand new leadership. In our modern information age, everyone knows about the current GDP number. Expansion is good and the economy is growing. Contraction is bad and the economy is in a recession. Thank goodness the GDP number can be rather malleable. And, like everything else in the new era, it can be faked.

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Economics

Monday, January 23, 2012

Debt End Game, Europe Staring into the Abyss, and Very Negative Unintended Consequences / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEurope's leaders are committed to keeping both the euro and the eurozone as it is. But for it to do so, everything must change, as the wonderful quote from the 1958 Italian novel suggests. This is no easy task, as no one wants a change that will impact them negatively; and there is no change that will allow things to stay the same that does not impact all severely, as we will see. In the third part of a continuing series, we look at the actual options that are available on the menu of choices, or as one group called it, the menu of pain. I offer some guideposts that we should watch for along the way, and end by offering a suggestion as to what Europe should do. As has been the case in this series, I do my best to offend everyone at some point. If by some small, unintended oversight I do not, then wait another week, I will get to you. What else are friends for?

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Southern Europe Permanently Crippled, The Only Tool Left is Hyper Inflation / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAny perusal around the world these days features Southern Europe crippled, preparing for the inevitable Greek Govt Bond default. It features a crippled US housing market, a mockery of statistical accounting in the US Gross Domestic Product, the plight of the COMEX with established veterans clearing out desks (not trading), the extreme physical demand reported by the London Trader, and the indictment of the SLV iTrust Silver Fund tool used by the cartel. The survey does not look favorable toward stability. The banking, economic, and political leaders have not pursued reform and remedy in any remote sense.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Producing Surprises / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sy_Harding

In 2008 it was a sure thing the bursting of the real estate bubble, the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, the freeze-up of the banking system, the ravages of the ‘Great Recession’, collapse of the auto industry, bailout of mortgage- insurance giant AIG, bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler, etc., would wind up with the economy in the next Great Depression.

It was then a sure thing that the massive stimulus and bailout efforts would not work, and the costs would bankrupt the country and drop it into third-world economy status.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

The World Economy Stalls; Meanwhile Dubai Bounces Back: So what’s The Secret? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the few interesting things about Dubai is that it serves as a barometer for economic activity that happens largely outside of government and outside of OEDC.

I’m not talking blood diamonds or drug money, Dubai services a region that extends thousands of miles in all directions and the only thing that happens there that doesn’t happen elsewhere and is “illegal” in many of the places it services, is economic freedom. What’s interesting is that you can measure the pulse the global free-market by measuring the pulse of Dubai.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts All Favourable Aspects / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December, after posting a similar reading in November. The energy price index inched down 1.3% in December, marking the third consecutive decline. The recent increase in oil prices should be reflected in the January CPI report. The food price index increased 0.2% in December putting the year-to-year gain at 4.7% vs. 1.5% in all of 2010. The energy price index moved up 6.6% in 2011 compared with a 7.7% jump in 2010. The 3.0% increase in the overall CPI in 2011 reflects these gains as well as an acceleration of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.

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Economics

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.

Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.

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Economics

Thursday, January 19, 2012

UK Inflation Mega-trend Second Anniversary Despite Continuing Delusional Deflation Propaganda / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK CPI inflation ended 2011 at 4.2% (December) coming down sharply from a peak of 5.2% (September) that despite the mainstream presses continuing academic backed falling inflation / deflation risk warnings remains at more than DOUBLE the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank whose primary remit is supposedly price stability. CPI 3% was supposed to have been the maximum level a break above which was supposed to trigger a series of panic measures to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to print money that to date officially totals £275 billion of electronic money printing that the fractional reserve banking system will eventually leverage to over £1 trillion for the primary objective for the monetization of government debt as warned of now 2 years ago in the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook (Free Download).

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Economics

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

World Bank Global Economy Warning: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Jesse

In case your domestic financial press fails to deliver this important message to you so clearly, as the World Bank has done for the rest of the world's leadership.  

Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

Equities are pricing in a rosy scenario, but the bonds and precious metals are saying 'beware.'

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Economics

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

India Economy 2012: What to Expect / Economics / India

By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe political situation in India remains murky, and elections will be held in key states early this year. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven phases, which will unfold during most of February. Punjab, a significantly smaller state in terms of population, will also hold elections in January and March.

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