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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Expect a Global Economic Recession 2012 / Economics / Recession 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies around the world, by Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, that concluded that when a country's gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."

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Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCourtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).

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Economics

Monday, January 16, 2012

Economic Crisis and the Theory of the Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJesus Huerta de Soto writes: The three years that have passed since the world financial crisis and subsequent economic recession hit have provided Austrian economists with a golden opportunity to popularize their theory of the economic cycle and their dynamic analysis of social conditions. In my own case, I could never have imagined at the beginning of 1998, when the first edition of my book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles appeared, that 12 years later, due undoubtedly to a financial crisis and economic recession unparalleled in the world since the Great Depression of 1929, a crisis and recession which no other economic paradigm managed to predict and adequately explain, my book would be translated into 14 languages and published (so far) in nine countries and several editions (two in the United States and four in Spain).

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics

By: Barry_Elias

Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.

Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Keynesian Death By Debt Continues / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDebt constrains one's enjoyment of life. Without debt to repay, we could use our incomes solely for the pursuit of the good life. You get to define of what that consists, be it food and wine, debauchery or charitable deeds. With debt, life is miserable. Greece has learned that lesson. Spain and Portugal now know that. Those that lost their homes due to the bursting of the Federal Reserve's housing bubble know that. Seems just about everyone but Keynesian economists hiding in their academic cloisters, free of the real world, are fully aware of economic death through debt.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Euroland Factory Sector Posts Decline, Confirming Expectations of a Recession / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Asha_Bangalore

The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen to watch and wait and did not take action after today’s meeting. The ECB has lowered the policy rate in the last two meetings to 1.00% from 1.50%. A preliminary report has indicated that real GDP of Germany contracted in the fourth quarter and German industrial production fell sharply in November.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Increase in Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Could be a Timing Issue / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 399,000 during the first week of the year. Timing could be playing role in the large increase of initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average at 381,750 will be tracked closely to estimate if the recent downward trend of initial jobless claims has been reversed or if it is beginning of the year distortion. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, moved up 19,000 to 3.628 million.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).

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Economics

Thursday, January 12, 2012

United States Coming Greek Moment, Collapse, No. Huge Losses, Guaranteed / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI did a search on Google for "economic collapse" and "2011." I got over 7 million hits.

I read a short piece on the probability of social collapse. The author argues that complex systems require more energy. At some point, there is not enough energy to sustain the system. Then it collapses.

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Economics

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Tracking China’s Imports and Germany’s Exports / Economics / China Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Imports of China slowed to a 10.7% year-over-year growth in December 2011 (see Chart 1), the smallest increase since late-2009. Imports of China from Germany, the driver of economic growth in Europe, have posted a significant slowing, with the December increase amounting a paltry 4.2%, the smallest gain since October 2009. The broader implication of these trends is that not only is German business activity hit by a deceleration of imports of China but the intricate web of world trade has a wide reach and will translate into a setback in business conditions among other trading partners.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

2012 Stoking Another Deadly Recession / Economics / Recession 2012

By: FNN24

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur weekly update, published here takes a look at economic fundamentals across EU, US and UK while also looking at charts from FX markets and bond markets. Data has been mixed over the last few months with a case being made for US and UK to outperform all other markets while EU economies present a mixed picture with Germany standing out. But even then, we believe there are kinks in the growth picture across US, UK and EU as EURO crisis is expected to take an iron grip of the flow of credit over the next few months. Over EUR 1 trillion are set to be rolled over.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

The Making of China's Epic Economic Hard landing / Economics / China Economy

By: Dee_Woo

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article1. The unsavory episodes of China's economy

For the better part of the past year, my concern about Chinese economy was constantly aggravated by the depressing stories of entrepreneurs who committed suicide, fleeted the country or emigrate to the western world in droves. Most media have blamed the credit crunch and monetary tightening for all these unsavory episodes. The public outcry for the deteriorating conditions of Chinese entrepreneurship climaxed with the seemly positive step PBOC(the People's Bank of China) took on Dec 5 2011 to alleviate the liquidity crisis: cut the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) to 21 percent from a record high of 21.5 percent.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Headwinds That Could Rock the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The key question about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy for 2012 is if domestic economic momentum that is visible in bullish economic reports of past – ISM factory survey data, Q4 auto sales, and December employment report – will prevail in the rest of 2012 and offset headwinds from Europe (and its associated ramifications) and the setback from a decelerating trend of business activity in China. In the context, we will be providing periodic updates as economic reports are published.

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Economics

Monday, January 09, 2012

Understanding Deflation, How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go? / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

"Localities have chopped 535,000 positions since September 2008..." USA Today (10/18)

Cuts in government services became conspicuous after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The first edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash saw this coming, even though the book published nearly a decade ago:

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Economics

Monday, January 09, 2012

China 2012: The Year of the Bull (Rogers) or the Bear (Chanos)? / Economics / China Economy

By: Janet_Tavakoli

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen I think of a China bull and a China bear, I think of the legendary dueling Jims: Jim Rogers and Jim Chanos. In response to investors bearish on China, Jim Rogers famously said: “I find it interesting that people who couldn’t spell China 10 years ago are now experts.” Jim Chanos famously said that China’s real estate market is “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse.” He’s been saying that for over two years. Chanos points to a credit bubble, and says he’s early and sticking with his short positions. Rogers insists “China is not in a [credit] bubble,” rather it’s been in a price bubble in urban, coastal real estate, and to compare China to Dubai is a false analogy. Jim Rogers is bullish on China’s long term prospects: “China is going to have many serious problems along the way as it rises, but ‘Dubai 1000 times over’?!”

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Economics

Saturday, January 07, 2012

Can The U.S. Economic Recovery Overcome Europe’s Drag? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn an October column I wrote, “For the first time this year the trend of U.S. economic reports is potentially bottoming and turning positive. And after being bearish in the spring and summer, I like what I see in the technical charts of many markets. If only we could ignore Europe.”

That pretty much still defines the situation as we enter the new year.

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Economics

Saturday, January 07, 2012

U.S. Unemployment Drops as Employment Reports Widespread Gains, Allows Fed Breathing Space / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.5% in December, down from 8.7% in November. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +200,000 jobs in December vs. +100,000 in November. Private sector jobs increased 212,000 after a gain of 120,000 in November. A net loss of 8,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of October and November.
Private Sector Hourly Earnings: $23.24 in December vs. $23.20 in November; 2.1% y-o-y increase in December vs. 1.9% gain in November.

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