Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, April 07, 2013
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Report - Interesting Seasonality Factors / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
As you may recall, the raw input into the Non Farm Payrolls report is the actual count of jobs which the BLS compiles.
To this number the BLS adds the output of the Birth-Death Model, which is their estimate of Jobs lost and created by new businesses not included in the report.
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Friday, April 05, 2013
The Stockman Backlash / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, while economists should have been closely considering the implications of the actual bankruptcy of Stockton, California, they instead heaped scorn on the perceived ideological bankruptcy of David Stockman. In other words, Stockman trumped Stockton.
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Zombie Parasites vs. Productives, Turning Argentine / Economics / Inflation
By: Bill_Bonner
Here in Argentina, most things were closed on Monday for the Easter holidays... and are closed again today, too.
What do these Argentines think they are? French?
We wandered the streets. Here in the Palermo Soho neighborhood of Buenos Aires, where we are staying, there were thousands of people window-shopping, eating in restaurants and drinking in outdoor cafes.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2013
America's Continuing Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Seth Mason writes: This is not what economic recovery looks like. This is, however, what an economic depression looks like:
First, the American workforce is far smaller than it was before the 2008 economic collapse, even though the number of Americans of working age has increased by several millions:
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Monday, April 01, 2013
The Real Fallout From Cyprus Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Michael_Pento
Holders of the Euro currency should be glad that the Troika is finally doing something besides just making more loans, printing more money and monetizing more debt—unlike what the Treasury and Federal Reserve is in the habit of doing. For me, this has to be positive for the Euro in the long term because the ECB is not expanding its balance sheet, while the Fed is rapidly expanding the U.S. monetary base.
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Friday, March 29, 2013
Preparing for Inflationary Times / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Clark
"All this money printing, massive debt, and reckless deficit spending – and we have 2% inflation? I'm beginning to believe that either the deflationists are right, or the Fed's interventions are working." – Anonymous Casey Research reader
The CPI, in our view, does not accurately measure inflation, which accounts for some of the discrepancy our reader is pointing out. However, the proper definition of inflation is "an increase in the quantity of money," which we've had in spades. We've not experienced the concomitant increase in prices, which is what we're addressing in this article.
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Friday, March 29, 2013
The Real U.S. Inflation Rate and What to Do About It / Economics / Inflation
By: Don_Miller
A little over a month ago we did a quick poll on what our readers thought the real rate of inflation was. The idea for polling our readers came from the disconnect between the official government rate of around 1% and what some had told me they were experiencing first hand.
Thank you to everyone who participated, particularly those who shared frustrating examples of the ever-increasing cost of living. There were close to 100 pages of reader comments, and I read them all... every single word.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Should Bernanke Park the Helicopter? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Shostak
According to Ben Bernanke, pulling back on aggressive policy measures too soon would pose a real risk of damaging a still-fragile recovery.
The Fed chief is of the view that, for the purposes of financial stability, a continuation of the central bank’s aggressive stimulus, conducted through purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, remains the optimal approach.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2013
The Economic Stimulus Trap / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Peter_Schiff
For years we have been warned by Keynesian economists to fear the so-called "liquidity trap," an economic cul-de-sac that can suck down an economy like a tar pit swallowing a mastodon. They argue that economies grow because banks lend and consumers spend. But a "liquidity trap," they argue, convinces consumers not to consume and businesses not to borrow. The resulting combination of slack demand and falling prices creates a pernicious cycle that cannot be overcome by the ordinary forces that create growth, like savings or investment. They say that a liquidity trap can even resist the extraordinary force of monetary stimulus by rendering cash injections into useless "string pushing." Some of these economists suggest that its power can only be countered by a world war or other fortunately timed event that leads to otherwise politically unattainable levels of government spending.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Entrenched Deflation Threatens Economic Recovery / Economics / Deflation
By: Andrew_McKillop
TWO VIEWS ONLY
There are basically only two possible views. One is that entrenched deflation happens when there is persistent falling demand for credit and declining rates of money ciculation in the economy, driving down prices for goods, services and credit. This is confronted and made worse by increasing physical supply (and supply capacity) of goods and services. Due to generalized over-borrowing in the recent "economic cycle", QE Everywhere cannot fill the gap caused by secular deleveraging. All developed economies are "pushing on a string" and the temporary wealth effect of housing price and stock market gains has gone or will evaporate. They will all repeat the Japanese experience in their own way.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
While inflation seems to be on everyone’s mind these days, misconceptions abound. Indeed, few concepts in economics are as misunderstood as inflation. This month I take a look at some common questions about inflation, and a few that I wish more people were asking.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Exponentially Accelerating Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The monthly figures for the US dollar components of Austrian, or True Money Supply, for February are now in. TMS plus excess reserves amount to the quantity of money that can be drawn down without notice, including time deposits that in practice can be instantly drawn down without notice, only foregoing interest. This is shown in the long-term chart below.
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Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus is in 'Difficult Times,' Faces Recession / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Bloomberg
Athanasios Orphanides, the former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, told Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today that Cyprus "will face a deeper recession going forward."
Orphanides also said, "The other periphery countries should thank the Cypriot parliament for rejecting the earlier plan that was advanced about 10 days ago that essentially asked for the confiscation of deposits."
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Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus Shows Your Savings Will be Stolen! UK Theft is by Means of High Inflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Different faces but the same old story is being replayed in a small part of the Euro-zone, Cyprus, and that story is one of the Cypriot banking crime syndicate gambling with depositor funds on the debt markets, this time it's Greek bonds, yes, these master-eds of the universe used depositor funds to pile into soon to go bankrupt Greece because of the high yields they offered so that the bankster's could bank bonuses on the basis of fictitious profits as illustrated by the fact that they have dumped an infinitely pile of losses (Greek Bond's ) onto Cypriot tax payers, far beyond anything that any other Euro-zone member has had to face to date.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes! / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, Gary D. Halbert (my old and very dear friend and former business partner of many years) reminds us about a few significant facts concerning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that mainstream economists and the media tend to ignore. The central question is whether the CPI is really indicative of the actual inflation rate. Not likely, says Gary, since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which compiles the CPI, has engaged in methodological shenanigans over the past couple decades (as has been well documented by John Williams of ShadowStats, among others). The upshot of all their monkeying with the numbers is that the official rate of inflation may be two to four times lower than the actual rate (which is rather convenient if you’re a government bureaucrat trying to hold down interest costs and Social Security payments).
Friday, March 22, 2013
Economic Collape of the Something for Nothing Societies! / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: Ty_Andros
The developed world has now become a fully operational Something-for-Nothing society. Once a Something-for-Nothing psychology has been fully implemented the majority of its citizens have become the functional equivalent of LOCUSTS!
Unable and unwilling ( they no longer have the skills to make the wages they believe they are entitled to ) to produce more than they consume and support themselves they set off the consume those that do to FEED on and SUPPORT themselves. The TAKERS or WEALTH EAT the MAKERS of WEALTH, Cannibalism of the worst sort.
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Thursday, March 21, 2013
Figuring Out Cyprus, Will the Real Unemployed Please Raise Your Hands? / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Mauldin
This week’s letter will be a very short part of a book I am writing with Bill Dunkelberg (the Chief Economist of the National Federation of Independent Businesses) on the future of employment. It has taken longer to write than I initially anticipated, for a host of reasons, chief among which is that the future is not as obvious as I originally thought. Diving into the data has brought a few surprises. It doesn’t help that I have (probably to the frustration of Dunk, although he is way too polite to say it) changed the focus from “merely” what we need to do to create jobs (which is still an important part of the book) to what kinds of jobs will the future bring and who will get them.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Grant Williams's Economic Theory of Disconnectivity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Casey_Research
Grant Williams writes: On March 14, 1879, in Ulm, a tiny town on the banks of the river Danube in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, a boy was born to a Jewish electrical engineer and his wife.
Hermann and Pauline Einstein had no idea that their first-born son would one day change the way humans look at the world around them.
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Thursday, March 21, 2013
Relationship between Current U.S Deficits, Exchange Rates and Triffin Dilemma / Economics / US Economy
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
After the Great Depression in the 1930s the state of affair of the World economy can be at best described as turbulence. As a result of the Great Depression many countries experience a period of plummeting personal income, tax collection, exports and consumption. During that time most of the world’s economies have unstable exchange rates which also resulted in unstable world trade. Following this many countries engaged in competitive currency devaluation which resulted in the ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policies being adopted. Hence due to the intensified currency wars among nations ‘protectionist’ trade policies are also introduced.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Employers NI £2,000 Cut UK Jobs Boost - Budget 2013 Analysis / Economics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne several years late has eventually got around to targeting the real engines for economic growth and employment in the UK that are small businesses as large multinationals are easily able to evade taxes on profits generated in the UK which they then pull out of the British economy and deposit in tax havens, though the tax haven of Cyprus won't be getting any new deposits any time soon.