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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression of 2013 - 2020 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Christopher_Quigley

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. He died for what he believed was the truth. His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. This truth Stalin did not want to hear, thus Nikolai was exterminated and his work suppressed for over two decades.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

U.S. Inflation Expectations Forecast No More QE / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Tony_Pallotta

If you study the difference between real or inflation adjusted treasury yields as measured by TIPS and nominal or non inflation adjusted yields you come up with inflation expectations. The Fed has specifically referenced this analysis leading up to QE2. In fact the deflationary trend as measured by TIPS in the summer of 2010 was the basis for expanding their balance sheet.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Inflation Held in Check by Fear / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Browne

History has shown us time and again that out of control money supply expansion creates inflation. In light of the trillions of synthetic dollars that have been injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve over the past five years, most observers (this one included) had expected prices to spiral upward. But in making these determinations, many of us forgot to factor in the supply side of the supply/demand equation. Inflation remains low now because of game changing events that have reduced the demand for money.

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Economics

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTaking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words if the income statement says a company generated a profit well the cash flow will be there.

In the case of US economic data the closest thing we have is monthly tax receipts. I will be digging more into this data in the coming weeks and months to get a better sense just how well the economy is doing. For now I wanted to share an analysis based purely on tax receipts.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

I only have eyes for you. And Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Jan_Skoyles

You may have seen them already but some of them were so, so bad (and some pretty good) that we just had to say something about them.

Yep, we’re talking about the Fed Valentine’s.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

January U.S. Retail Sales Decelerating Trend Remains in Place / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales increased 0.4% in January after a steady reading in December. The December estimate was revised down slightly from the earlier reading of 0.1%. In January, auto purchases in the retail sales report show a 1.1% decline, while unit auto sales increased to an annual rate of 14.2 million units in January vs. 13.6 million units in December. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of consumer spending. Gasoline sales rose 1.4% in January, a price related gain.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

U.S. Trade Deficit Data Belies Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street is extolling the virtues of our rising U.S. trade deficit as a sure sign the economy is well on the road to a full and viable recovery. It was reported last week that our level of trade imbalance jumped to a six-month high in December to $48.8 billion (up 3.7%), from $47.1 billion in the prior month. For all of 2011, the shortfall grew 12% to $558 billion, the most since 2008.

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Economics

Monday, February 13, 2012

Keynesians Jump the Gun on Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Advocates of government stimulus are running victory laps on recent developments that appear to vindicate their strategy. In particular, Paul Krugman compares the sluggish growth in Europe to the somewhat-less-sluggish growth in the US to prove that stimulus was more effective than austerity. Other economists are using government inflation measures to defend Fed Chairman Bernanke's easy-money policy. The only problem is, they're calling the race before the finish line is even in sight.

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Economics

Sunday, February 12, 2012

US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade deficit. The December trade deficit increased to $48.8 billion from $47 billion in November. Although this report will have a slight negative impact on Q4 GDP there is something possibly more telling about the trajectory of the US economy.

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Economics

Saturday, February 11, 2012

China, Economy, Inflation, Investing and on Buying U.S. Debt / Economics / China Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg TV's Trish Regan spoke to Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, ahead of soon-to-be Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S. next week.

Roach said that he hoped U.S. political leaders would turn the visit "into an opportunity and not into a politically inspired, perceived threat." He also said that he foresees a "soft landing" of China's economy and that market access should be the main political issue with China, not currency.

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Economics

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Widening U.S. Trade Gap Reflects Relative Economic Strength / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $48.8 billion in December, putting the 2011 trade gap at $558 billion, the largest since 2008. Exports of goods and services advanced 0.7% in December, while imports of goods and services grew 1.3%. The advance estimate of fourth quarter real GDP contains assumptions about the trade deficit in December; the actual trade data for December suggest an upward revision of the 2.8% increase in real GDP, everything else the same.

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Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?

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Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.

Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.

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Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street. 

You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency.  During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market.  Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks! 

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Economics

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Different Measures of U.S. Unemployment, but Consistent Story is Visible / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe civilian unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in January from 8.5% in the prior month and is noticeably lower than the year ago reading of 9.1% (see Chart 1). The jobless rate in the Great Recession peaked at 10.0% in October 2009. The elevated unemployment after ten quarters of economic growth remains one of the top concerns of the Fed. Frequently, measures of unemployment different from the headline number are cited to drive home the message that the underlying fundamentals of the labor market are softer than what is inferred from the official rate. The aim of today’s comment is to sort out the different measures of unemployment and draw a meaningful conclusion of the status of the labor market.

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Economics

Thursday, February 09, 2012

China's Economic Rebalancing Should Be Good for Gold Demand / Economics / China Economy

By: Ben_Traynor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe next stage of China's development could give gold buyers a boost...

THERE IS an old saying: "Nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of a market."

Having said that, anyone reading about the stampede for gold during last month's Chinese New Year celebrations might have heard a faint ringing in their ears.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises

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Economics

Monday, February 06, 2012

US Unemployment Hits 22.5% in Alternate Estimate / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Jesse

Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking.

The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Look at What 'Worked' in the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere is a fairly simple picture of some of the major metrics during the Great Depression. Too simple yes, but it tracks most of the major indicators.

Hoover followed a policy of 'deleveraging,' that is, allowing for the economy to liquidate its prior excesses without changing much else. The Fed did respond to this crisis by expanding the monetary base fairly significantly as you can see.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

U.S. Economy Flatlining, Biderman on the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI spend a great deal of time looking at the various government reports, and especially the Payrolls report as you know. I keep my own spreadsheets with their data, and measure various changes in the way in which they calculate the seasonal adjustment factors, imaginary jobs, and prior revisions.

If I wish to leave you with one takeway, it is that the current use of the monthly headline number is more of a Sales and PR program for Wall Street and the government, and hardly the product of serious and thoughtful analysis of statistical data.

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