Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
The Avoidable Economic Depression II / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
The economy has gone from bad to worse. Last Friday's report from the Commerce Department confirmed that GDP had slipped from 3.7% to 2.4% in one quarter. Now that depleted stockpiles have been rebuilt and fiscal stimulus is running out, activity will continue to sputter increasing the likelihood of a double dip recession. Consumer credit and spending continue to decline and data released on Tuesday show that a sharp increase in personal savings rate which climbed to 6.4%. Mushrooming savings indicate that household deleveraging is ongoing which will reduce spending and further exacerbate the second-half slowdown. The jobs situation is equally grim; 8 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, but policymakers on Capital Hill and at the Fed refuse to initiate government programs or provide funding that will put the country back to work. Long-term "structural" unemployment is here to stay.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
U.S. Employment Data ADP vs. BLS Job Reports, Who to Believe? / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
The ADP July National Employment report is out. Let's take a look.
Read full article... Read full article...Private sector employment increased by 42,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Obama Save the U.S. Economy by Paying Down the National Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Graham_Summers
Dear Mr. President,
The following is a plan that I believe would bring about a significant change not only in the US economy, but in the US mindset. The last 30+ years in this country have been dominated by an overall regression in moral character and beliefs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
The Myth of the Manufacturing-Led Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andy_Sutton
They still don’t get it – or perhaps they do and just won’t admit it. Either way, it doesn’t matter much as the jesters, namely Msrs. Bernanke and Greenspan, continue to chirp their assigned lines, playing good cop/bad cop with the USEconomy. Right now, Bernanke is the good cop, pointing to increasing wages and the likelihood that the consumer will once again step up and rescue us from the grips of the double dip. On the other side of the room is Greenspan, talking about how that double-dip is still possible, although extremely unlikely.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
GDP Report Adds to My Bearish U.S. Economic Forecast / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
The Commerce Department confirmed what I’ve been saying for weeks: The economy is in shambles, there is no growth momentum and the next bear market leg is about to strike!
Last Friday the Commerce Department reported that our GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. That’s down from 3.7 percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Baby Boomer Dynamics, Housing, Jobs Creation, and the Falling Participation Rate / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Job estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.
Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Economic Recovery for the Few / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Submissions
Rick Wolff writes: Where is this elusive recovery? The banks, some say, have "recovered." Yet they remain dependent on Washington, they do not make the loans needed for a general recovery, and many medium and small banks keep collapsing. The stock market shows no recovery. The Dow index was 14,000 in late 2007 when capitalism hit the fan, and it is around 10,000 now. The Nasdaq market index was 2800 then and is 2300 now. Everywhere else -- unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, depressed housing market, and so on -- no recovery in sight. Yet, my search finally found genuine recovery for one group, and its recovery offers a better policy to treat this crisis.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
U.S. Corporate Hiring No Longer Improving; Americans Less Optimistic / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Corporate hiring has been in a weak but generally improving condition from January through June according to a Gallup Poll. That positive trend is now broken as noted in U.S. Job Creation Remains Level in July
Read full article... Read full article...Gallup's Job Creation Index finds job growth essentially unchanged for the third consecutive month, with a score of +7 in July -- about on par with +8 in June and +7 in May. Job market conditions are better now than they were during the financial crisis at this time a year ago (-2), but remain far below the already-recessionary levels found at this point in 2008 (+20).
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Is Consumer Spending 70% of GDP? Checkmark Recovery Revisited / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are digging into the BEA report Personal Income and Outlays, June 2010
Personal IncomeRead full article... Read full article...
Personal income increased $3.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $5.1 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $2.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
The Next Six Big Emerging Markets? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Frank_Holmes
When countries get grouped together for economic or political purposes, an acronym or other shorthand device is soon to follow. OPEC, EU and G7 are a few of the old standards, while G20, PIIGS (European nations with dangerously large sovereign debt burdens), and of course BRICs are newer examples.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most / Economics / Deflation
By: Janet_Tavakoli
The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy. Current stock market exuberance reflects earnings increases at selective companies that benefited from sputtering stimulus programs. In late 2007 through the fall of 2008, our economy had an appendix attack, and Congress issued potent addictive painkillers instead of fixing our problems.
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
ECRI Stock-Market Prophet Calling for a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes:
The Economic Cycle Research Institute - referred to as the "ECRI" by anyone in the know on Wall Street - has correctly called every U.S. recession during the last 45 years.
To work its magic, theECRI charts the weekly changes in an index ofLeading Economic Indicators (WLI). Market professionals like myself very quietly use the same group of indicators to call market tops and bottoms. The indicators are so accurate in terms of what they have to say about the future that I refer to ECRI and the WLI as "The Prophet."
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets, Will it be Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
I am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George.
Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. And when you look at today’s ISM number, look past the headline number, which is just fine, and look at the weakness in the leading indicators. New orders declined by 5 points to 53.5, its lowest level since June 2009. Also, imports slowed noticeably, which is a bad omen for domestic demand. Overall, the ISM index suggests that real GDP and factory output slowed early this quarter.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
U.S. Economic Recovery Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke thinks consumers are going to sustain the economy, but small businesses, the lifeblood of the economy sure disagree. Please consider Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index Hits New Low in July
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Debunking the Mainstream Economists Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Many prominent economists define deflation as a decline in the general price level within an economy. To make matters worse, these academics use the establishment’s highly manipulated inflation data as their yardstick. Therefore, when the heavily massaged Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) show a moderate increase, these folks celebrate the ‘perfect scenario’ of moderate inflation and when the CPI and PPI contract, they worry about deflation. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people blindly follow the views of the mainstream economists. Consequently, they end up making costly mistakes with their capital.