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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts All Favourable Aspects / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December, after posting a similar reading in November. The energy price index inched down 1.3% in December, marking the third consecutive decline. The recent increase in oil prices should be reflected in the January CPI report. The food price index increased 0.2% in December putting the year-to-year gain at 4.7% vs. 1.5% in all of 2010. The energy price index moved up 6.6% in 2011 compared with a 7.7% jump in 2010. The 3.0% increase in the overall CPI in 2011 reflects these gains as well as an acceleration of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy.

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Economics

Friday, January 20, 2012

Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.

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Economics

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.

Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.

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Economics

Thursday, January 19, 2012

UK Inflation Mega-trend Second Anniversary Despite Continuing Delusional Deflation Propaganda / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK CPI inflation ended 2011 at 4.2% (December) coming down sharply from a peak of 5.2% (September) that despite the mainstream presses continuing academic backed falling inflation / deflation risk warnings remains at more than DOUBLE the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank whose primary remit is supposedly price stability. CPI 3% was supposed to have been the maximum level a break above which was supposed to trigger a series of panic measures to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to print money that to date officially totals £275 billion of electronic money printing that the fractional reserve banking system will eventually leverage to over £1 trillion for the primary objective for the monetization of government debt as warned of now 2 years ago in the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook (Free Download).

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Economics

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

World Bank Global Economy Warning: Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Jesse

In case your domestic financial press fails to deliver this important message to you so clearly, as the World Bank has done for the rest of the world's leadership.  

Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

Equities are pricing in a rosy scenario, but the bonds and precious metals are saying 'beware.'

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Economics

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

India Economy 2012: What to Expect / Economics / India

By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe political situation in India remains murky, and elections will be held in key states early this year. Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state, will hold elections in seven phases, which will unfold during most of February. Punjab, a significantly smaller state in terms of population, will also hold elections in January and March.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

China Economic Growth Far From Hard Landing / Economics / China Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, spoke to Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the Chinese economy and crisis in Europe.

O'Neill said that China's continued growth is "the most important thing in the world." On potential Greek default, he said that "China creates the equivalent of another new Greek economy every four months" and "Greece itself is not that important."

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Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Asian Coal Fired Economic Locomotive / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat If Its Thanksgiving But You Are The Turkey?

HOPING FOR GROWTH
Called the only rational strategy, but impossible in the current context, restoring economic growth in the debt-strapped OECD countries remains a religious-type hope for political and corporate leaders.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Expect a Global Economic Recession 2012 / Economics / Recession 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies around the world, by Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, that concluded that when a country's gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."

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Economics

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCourtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).

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Economics

Monday, January 16, 2012

Economic Crisis and the Theory of the Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJesus Huerta de Soto writes: The three years that have passed since the world financial crisis and subsequent economic recession hit have provided Austrian economists with a golden opportunity to popularize their theory of the economic cycle and their dynamic analysis of social conditions. In my own case, I could never have imagined at the beginning of 1998, when the first edition of my book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles appeared, that 12 years later, due undoubtedly to a financial crisis and economic recession unparalleled in the world since the Great Depression of 1929, a crisis and recession which no other economic paradigm managed to predict and adequately explain, my book would be translated into 14 languages and published (so far) in nine countries and several editions (two in the United States and four in Spain).

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.

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Economics

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics

By: Barry_Elias

Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.

Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Keynesian Death By Debt Continues / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDebt constrains one's enjoyment of life. Without debt to repay, we could use our incomes solely for the pursuit of the good life. You get to define of what that consists, be it food and wine, debauchery or charitable deeds. With debt, life is miserable. Greece has learned that lesson. Spain and Portugal now know that. Those that lost their homes due to the bursting of the Federal Reserve's housing bubble know that. Seems just about everyone but Keynesian economists hiding in their academic cloisters, free of the real world, are fully aware of economic death through debt.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Euroland Factory Sector Posts Decline, Confirming Expectations of a Recession / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Asha_Bangalore

The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen to watch and wait and did not take action after today’s meeting. The ECB has lowered the policy rate in the last two meetings to 1.00% from 1.50%. A preliminary report has indicated that real GDP of Germany contracted in the fourth quarter and German industrial production fell sharply in November.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

Increase in Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Could be a Timing Issue / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 399,000 during the first week of the year. Timing could be playing role in the large increase of initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average at 381,750 will be tracked closely to estimate if the recent downward trend of initial jobless claims has been reversed or if it is beginning of the year distortion. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, moved up 19,000 to 3.628 million.

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Economics

Friday, January 13, 2012

U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).

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Economics

Thursday, January 12, 2012

United States Coming Greek Moment, Collapse, No. Huge Losses, Guaranteed / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI did a search on Google for "economic collapse" and "2011." I got over 7 million hits.

I read a short piece on the probability of social collapse. The author argues that complex systems require more energy. At some point, there is not enough energy to sustain the system. Then it collapses.

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Economics

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Tracking China’s Imports and Germany’s Exports / Economics / China Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Imports of China slowed to a 10.7% year-over-year growth in December 2011 (see Chart 1), the smallest increase since late-2009. Imports of China from Germany, the driver of economic growth in Europe, have posted a significant slowing, with the December increase amounting a paltry 4.2%, the smallest gain since October 2009. The broader implication of these trends is that not only is German business activity hit by a deceleration of imports of China but the intricate web of world trade has a wide reach and will translate into a setback in business conditions among other trading partners.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.

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