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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

ISM Manufacturing Forward Momentum in U.S. Factory Sector Remains in Place / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite index of ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in the prior month.  Indexes tracking new orders, production, employment, vendor deliveries, exports, and prices advanced in February.  The composite index is highest since May 2004 (see Chart 4).  The advances in production, new orders, employment, and exports are noteworthy. 

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Bernanke "Fed Prepared to Respond as Necessary" to Support Economic Recovery and Price Stability / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA likely threat of inflation following the Fed's extraordinary monetary accommodation and rising commodity prices is the most discussed topic in recent days. Chairman Bernanke addressed concerns about inflation in lucid terms in his semi-annual testimony this morning. First, he noted that the "rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad indexes of U.S. consumer prices has been quite low in recent decades, partly reflecting the relatively small weight of materials inputs in total production as well as the stability of longer-term inflation expectations."

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

U.S. Manufacturing “Red Hot”? Dream On / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

There is an article in the Huffington Post today which, before apparently being retitled, asserted in its headline that U.S. manufacturing is now "red hot," and whose text quotes a financial analyst (apparently approvingly) who asserts that it is.

This is based on a report from the respected Institute for Supply-Chain Management which reports that manufacturing output in the U.S. has expanded for 19 months straight.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Government Proposed Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending

Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming nothing is done to tax rates, this means that the government's current borrowing will fall commensurately. (This represents a shift in the demand curve for credit, not a movement along it.) All else the same, the interest rates, with the exception of the one-day federal funds rate, which is targeted by the Federal Reserve, will decline as the demand for credit declines.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Deflation Confusion: Money Is Not Credit / Economics / Deflation

By: Robert_Blumen

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe end is near. The end, that is, of the current monetary system. But inflation or deflation? Dow 1,000 or wheelbarrow money? While the arguments on the deflation side are not entirely without merit, they rely on conceptual errors that result in exaggerating the magnitude of a possible deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

China's Five-Year Economic Plan Calls For Slower Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: China will take steps to cool off its red-hot economy in the next five years largely by increasing domestic consumption and de-emphasizing exports, Premier Wen Jiabao announced in an online chat with the country's citizens on Sunday.

Wen, China's leading economic official, said the government's official target for average gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next five years will be reduced to 7% annually, down from a target of 7.5% in the past half decade.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints, But Partly Weather-Related / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.1% in January after a 0.3% increase in the prior month.  Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3% but this strength was offset by declines in purchases of non-durables (-0.2% vs. +0.1% in December) and services (-0.1% vs. +0.2% in December). 

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Economics

Monday, February 28, 2011

Trade Solutions That Won’t Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Americans in recent decades have not, of course, been entirely unaware that America has a trade problem. This has drawn into public debate a long list of proposed solutions. Unfortunately, many will not work, some are based on analytical confusions, and a few are outright nonsense. If we are to understand the true scope of our problem and frame solutions that will work, these false hopes must be debunked forthwith.

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Economics

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Why a Flat Tariff on All U.S. Imports Would Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI advocate protectionism. But one standard criticism is that this would just result in politically connected industries getting tariffs raised on the products they produce. This would corrupt our economy, force consumers to pay higher prices, and serve no legitimate economic logic.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Economic Booms, Busts, and Food Prices / Economics / Food Crisis

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMaybe you have heard about rising food prices. It is happening all over the world. We hear of Third World rural populations that are trapped by rising food prices.

Why are food prices rising? Simple: because urban people in formerly Third World nations are getting richer. India and China are the obvious examples. As these economies are freed from the regulations that once burdened them, the growing urban middle class bids up the price of food. People with money in their pockets like to eat more and better food. In the bidding war between rural people with little capital and therefore low incomes vs. urban residents with more capital and higher incomes, rural people lose.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

In Praise of Mercantilism, or Why Economic History Isn’t Boring / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoes economic history hold a giant clue for getting America out of its present trade mess? Yes, because it debunks the idea that free trade is how nations become prosperous. Instead, it shows that nations win at international trade by playing a 400-year-old game called mercantilism.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

U.S. Real Growth GDP for Q4 2010 Revised Lower to 2.8% from 3.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDownward revisions of consumer spending (4.1% vs. 4.4% advance estimate) and state & local government outlays (-2.4% vs. -0.9% advance estimate) were the two major sources of revisions accounting for the reduction in the pace of growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 2.8% from 3.2% in the advance estimate.  In addition, spending on equipment and software and residential investment expenditures were reported to have advanced at a slower clip in the fourth quarter (see table below). 

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Economics

Friday, February 25, 2011

The Economic Recovery that Never Was / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is my belief that as the headlines continue to roll in about fiscal woes from sea to shining sea that we are going to get a full appreciation for the fraud that has been perpetrated on the American people in the form of the ‘economic recovery’ that the media has been stumping for since the middle of 2009. This ‘wag the dog’ type undertaking has been about confidence, perceptions, and little else. Absolutely, there are pockets of the nation where people have found work. After all, when your government dumps nearly a trillion dollars into the economy it is going to have SOME effect. Our goal from the beginning of these hyperstimulation maneuvers was to point out the unsustainability of this course of action and more importantly to predict the consequences thereof.

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Economics

Friday, February 25, 2011

Top 12 Countries at Extreme Risk of Economic Collapse / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRisk analysis firm Maplecroft just released its new fiscal risk index ranking of 163 countries. Europe trumps all other regions with 11 out of twelve courtiers rated as "extreme risk." However, quite surprisingly, only one PIIGS country--Italy which takes the top spot--is in the top 12.

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Economics

Friday, February 25, 2011

World Economy Returns to Pre Financial Crisis Levels / Economics / Global Economy

By: Pravda

The year 2010 ended with considerable growths in the volumes of global trade. This index reached the pre-crisis level in December. The volume of trade increased by 15.1 percent during the year. The world economy demonstrated a stable improvement after the critical year of 2009, when the volume of global trade dropped by 13 percent. The commodity circulation is expected to increase as well, experts believe.

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