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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

U.S. Household Debt - Deleveraging Posts New Record / Economics / US Debt

By: Asha_Bangalore

Household debt soared prior to the onset of the financial crisis to establish a peak at $13.9 trillion in second quarter of 2008 (see Chart 2). During the thirteen quarters since the peak, household debt has declined $688 billion (see Chart 3) to set a new record for the post-war period.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The Other Side of the Austerity Program - German Economy Stands to Lose / Economics / Germany

By: Asha_Bangalore

A fiscal austerity program has been adopted as the cure all for the ills of the indebted members of the eurozone. The flipside of this policy is that in the short-run Germany’s exports of goods and services will take a deep hit. Exports of goods and services from Germany reached a record high of 51% in the third quarter of 2011 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Monday, December 12, 2011

ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations / Economics / Recession 2012

By: EconMatters

The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.

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Economics

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.

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Economics

Friday, December 09, 2011

How an Economy Collapses... and How to Protect Yourself / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are growing fears that an economic collapse is on the way. Is this fear justified? Before we conclude that it is a by-gone conclusion and that it's time to head for the hills, let's first cover how and why an economy collapses. In this essay I talk about economic collapse as an "internal event". Keep in mind that there are "external" reasons for an economy to collapse (such as war and/or natural events such as earthquakes etc.)

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Eurozone Debt Downgrade Shock Waves Could Slam Into US Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Dan_Amerman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStandard & Poor's missed the point when they "only" put 15 Eurozone nations on credit watch for possible near term downgrades.  In this highly interconnected world - most of Europe can't be put on credit watch without putting much of the world on credit watch, with the United States being particularly vulnerable to global "contagion" risks.

Twelve possible implications for the United States are concisely explored herein.  These "shock waves" include everything from the value of the dollar, to unemployment, gas prices, stock prices, derivatives, US bank stability, inflation, retirement investing, Federal Reserve reactions, the US deficit and credit rating, the potential criminal prosecution of S&P, and more.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Brazil, India, China and Eurozone Economic Headwinds to Heed in 2012 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere has been a string of positive news about the U.S. economy in the past few days – auto sales rose, jobless rate fell, the ISM manufacturing survey points to an increase in new orders and production, private sector construction outlays advanced. But, news from abroad is disappointing and could translate into more than a temporary dip in exports. The important question is if the tailwinds can offset the headwinds blowing through the United States.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

What the Christmas Price Index is Telling U.S. Consumers About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: U.S. consumers can get a glimpse of what to expect in price changes this holiday shopping season - especially if you get your gift ideas from an old song.

The PNC Christmas Price Index, released by PNC Wealth Management (NYSE: PNC) measures the total cost of presents listed in the classic tune, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." This year, the price tag for an ambitious gift-giver buying all 364 presents hit $101,119.84, a 4.4% gain over last year's index.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Europe Entering a Decade Long Recession / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf French president Nicolas Sarkozy gets his wish to "Level the Playing Field" on sovereign bonds, a decade-long European recession is on its way.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear in a speech in Toulon last week that he wanted the private sector to be given a more-level playing field when it came to the threat of having to bear losses on their investments.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

Economic Armageddon: 2012 or 2013? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn his latest report, Samuel Kress of SineScope reviewed the 120-year cycle and broke it down into its constituent cycles. For the sake of our long time readers, I’m providing my own breakdown of the 120-year cycle and its effects on the past, present and future of the financial market and economy.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

Marc Faber Warns China Economy Heading for a Major Slowdown / Economics / China Economy

By: Videos

Marc Faber's big China short. Forget Europe, says Faber, it's China that's in for a major slowdown, with a relatively short appearance on CNBC's Simon Hobbs and the Money In Motion traders.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2011

U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.

More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.

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Economics

Sunday, December 04, 2011

BubbleOmiX Predicts US Employment Will Climb By 5-Million Over Next 18-Months / Economics / Employment

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe essential theory of BubbleOmix is that Ying follows Yang or in other words What Goes-Around Comes Around.

Employment in USA is a market, some people look to buy services, and interestingly 35% of companies in USA these days can’t find qualified people for the jobs they are offering (no prizes for guessing where those jobs will go). The fact that there may be a lot of unemployed (and unemployable) people doesn’t change the numbers of jobs on offer; it just changes the wages the jobs pay…slightly.

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Economics

Saturday, December 03, 2011

U.S. Employment Up But Not Enough, World Slips into Recession As Central Bankers Unite! / Economics / Recession 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is now common to use the term bazooka when referring the actions of governments and central banks as they try to avert a credit crisis. And this week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough. Something more along the lines of a howitzer is needed (keeping with our WW2-era military arsenal theme). And of course I need to briefly comment on today's employment numbers. There is enough to keep us occupied for more than a few pages, so let's jump right in. (Note: this letter may print long, as there are a lot of charts.)

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Economics

Saturday, December 03, 2011

U.S. Labor Market is Improving, but Imminent Europe Recession Could Upset the Apple Cart / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.6% in November, down from 9.1% in October. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +120,000 jobs in November vs. +100,000 in October. Private sector jobs increased 140,000 after a gain of 117,000 in October. Addition of 82,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of September and October

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2011

The U.S. Consumer is Finally Bouncing Back / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.

Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.

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Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2011

China Returns to Economic Growth Mode with Major Policy Shift / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The damaging global economic effects that Europe's unfolding debt crisis pose have caused a sharp reversal in China's monetary policy - one that will lead to a greater expansion of the Red Dragon's economy.

The People's Bank of China announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it would lower the percentage of deposits commercial banks must hold in reserve by 50 basis points, effective Dec. 5.

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Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2011

Why the U.S. Economy Will Be Weaker Than Expected in 2012 / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: Anyone who hoped the U.S. economy would get back on track in 2011 was sorely disappointed.

The European sovereign debt crisis and the abysmal failure of policymakers to take effective action undermined any chance we had at a strong recovery.

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Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2011

Ben Bernanke Beats Deflationists Into Submission With His Money Stick / Economics / Inflation

By: Jeff_Berwick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe've got a new slogan for deflationists.  Deflationists: Wrong Since the Advent of Fiat Currency.

It's been the never-ending, battle royale of the economic world ever since the looming end to this financial system became starkly clear in 2008.  Will the western governments, almost all completely incapable of paying the gargantuan debts enabled by democracy, central banking and fiat currency, allow the system to collapse (deflation) or worm their way out of it via inflation, until we live in a hyperinflationary apocalypse?

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