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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Phony Official Inflation Statistics Produced by Dirty Rotten Scoundrels / Economics / Inflation

By: Rob_Kirby

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe purpose of this paper is to draw particular attention to the recent disparity in crude oil prices – namely the difference between two benchmarks - West Texas Intermediate [WTI] and Brent [North Sea] Crude.  Historically the price of WTI trades at a premium to lesser quality Brent North Sea Crude.  This paper lays out the case that the extreme, existing, observable price discrepancies is likely the result of engineered and arbitrary market manipulations – to be discussed below. Such arbitrary price manipulations in the oil markets impact negatively on the oil exporting economies and show favor to oil importing economies.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Bullish Small Business Optimism Index and Opposing Views from the Fed / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe NFIB survey results of small businesses for January 2011 point to an improved outlook.  The composite index moved up to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in the prior month.  The level of the composite index is close to the pre-recession reading of 94.4 in November 2007 (see Chart 1). 

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Economics

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

China, Inflation and Gold, China created paper money and paper money then created Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRalph T. Foster in his invaluable book, Fiat Paper Money, The History and Evolution of Our Currency, writes that paper money made its first appearance in Szechwan, a remote province of China early in the 11th century.

Because of a shortage of copper coins, provincial officials had begun circulating iron coins; but the difference in value and weight between the two metals caused unexpected problems.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Changing Perception of the U.S. Economy Food for Thought / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 2-year Treasury note is trading around 0.78% today, from a low of 0.54% on January 28. The 10-year Treasury note yield has moved up to 3.67% from 3.36% in the same period (see Chart 1). The bond market essentially signals the U.S. economy is turning around and is most likely to establish sustained growth in 2011. A part of the bullish sentiment commenced after Bernanke's speech in the last week of August 2010 when the Fed signaled that a second round of support was on its way.

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Economics

Monday, February 07, 2011

China a Trade Growth Machine Investors Ignore at their Own Risk / Economics / China Economy

By: Justin_John

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are very few macro points in the world that needs to be understood and analysed more than the story of the dragon and its kids. Infact for a generation to come, we may be telling the story of the great dragon which breathed fire and consumed the eagle in the sky. What happens to the dragon after that is the plot where almost everyone has a different ending.

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Economics

Monday, February 07, 2011

Subjective Value and Market Prices / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the most subtle aspects of modern economic theory is the relation between subjective value and objective money prices. This is an area where the Austrians have an advantage over other schools, because they care more about their forebears than most other economists, and because Austrians were instrumental in the development of subjective-value theory.

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Economics

Sunday, February 06, 2011

China Economy in the Year of the Rabbit / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Derrick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHappy New Year 4708!

According to the Chinese calendar it’s the Year of the Rabbit. The leading Asian brokerage firm CLSA reports the Rabbit will “wrest the reins from the decidedly unpleasant and erratic Tiger that’s been tossing and turning the markets over the past 12 months.” We all could appreciate a respite from extreme volatility.

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Economics

Sunday, February 06, 2011

If Friday's U.S. Employment Data Confused You... / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article... this story via AP should help 'clear' it up.  There remains a lot of confusion even by economists who follow this stuff for a living.  Essentially the larger story is traditional businesses are not hiring at pace so large swathes of America are either (a) dropping out of the workforce or (b) becoming self employed.  Hence the new workers in category b respond affirmatively when the household survey calls and asks "are you working?".  Even if working means selling some of those old Beanie Babies on their new fangled Ebay store. 

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

U.S. January Employment Report Suggests Continutation of Fed Easy Monetary Policy Stance / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe January employment report includes special factors, so the format of today's commentary is different from the procedure we follow for each month's employment report.  The comment starts with a discussion of the special factors, followed by a conclusion, and ends with an analysis of customary details. 

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Economics

Saturday, February 05, 2011

U.S. Labor Force and Unemployment Statistical BS / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI had no idea what to expect in today's jobs report. ADP projected 187,000 jobs but has been wildly off numbers reported by the BLS. Economists expected +146,000 jobs. The actual establishment survey report shows +36,000.

I knew huge revisions and methodology changes were coming this month would make gaming the report a crap-shoot. However, the amazing thing in the jobs report was not the number of jobs, but the statistical sleight-of-hand in the unemployment rate.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Cause and Evidence of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a heated debate on the February 1st episode of CNBC's "The Kudlow Report", financial commentator Donald Luskin offered his "textbook" definition of inflation as "an overall rise in the general price level." I countered with the "dictionary" definition. My 1988 edition of Webster's Dictionary defines inflation as follows: "An increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level." [Emphasis added.] These differences are not academic and go a long way toward explaining why economists argue so vociferously.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Euro Debt Crisis and Economic Theory / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThroughout the last year, European debt problems have been cited as a threat to both the euro and to the American economy, among other entities. While many correct assertions have been made concerning the potential impact of a European debt implosion, there have also been many ill-conceived ones. It is often faulty economic theory that leads to faulty conclusions. This article revisits economic theory — from a free-market perspective — as it relates to the current European monetary challenges.

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Assessment of Labor Market Little Changed / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 42,000 during the week ended January 29 to 415,000, reversing nearly the entire 54,000 jump recorded in the prior week. The Labor Department has indicated that declines in initial jobless claims were from states who reported storm-related increases in the prior week. Inclement weather in several states this week suggests that additional backlogs due to bad weather are likely to distort readings once again. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 84,000 to 3.925 million. Claims filed under special programs, which lag initial jobless claims by two weeks, show a small drop for the week ended January 15 (4.55 million vs. 4.69 million for week ended January 8, see Chart 8).

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Economics

Friday, February 04, 2011

The Greater Depression Smoot-Hawley Redux / Economics / Protectionism

By: James_Quinn

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the Greater Depression continues along a parallel pathway with the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress is about to commit the same blunder it made in 1930. The rocket scientists in the House of Representatives in September passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which aims to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation by targeting imports from China and other countries with currencies that are perceived to be undervalued.

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