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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, December 04, 2010

There’s Still Hope for Modern Economists / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Barry_Elias

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA recent blog of mine, dated Nov. 12, 2010, suggested that modern economists have modeled the economic decision-making process for many years with a high degree of inaccuracy.

They implemented a methodology referred to as the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.

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Economics

Saturday, December 04, 2010

U.S. November Employment Situation Supports Fed QE2 Program / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 9.8% in November, held between 9.5% and 9.6% for five straight months.  The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.

Payroll Employment: 39,000 in November vs. +172,000 in October.  Private sector jobs increased 50,000 after a gain of 160,000 in October.  Revisions for September and October resulted in a net gain of 38,000 jobs in the economy and 6,000 jobs in the private sector.

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Economics

Friday, December 03, 2010

More Economic Stimulus Means Fewer U.S. Jobs / Economics / Unemployment

By: Peter_Schiff

Today's payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, and Congress keeps stimulating spending and consumer debt, punishing employers with mandates, regulations, and taxes, crowding out private investment with massive government borrowing, and preventing market forces from restructuring our out-of-balance economy.

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Economics

Friday, December 03, 2010

U.S. Labor Market Musings Prior to the November Employment Report / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLabor market indicators are sending a mixed message.  Today's jobless claims report continues to suggest that the economic recovery is not sufficiently strong to bring about a meaningful reduction in the number of jobless claims.  Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 436,000 during the week ended November 27. 

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

How can the U.S. Economy Recover When its People Have Less Money? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow in the world is the U.S. economy going to recover if the American people have less money to spend? Millions of American families are heading into 2011 knowing that either they won't be seeing an increase in income or that their incomes will be smaller next year.

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Is Quantitative Easing (QE2) the Road to Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Ellen_Brown

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnlike Zimbabwe, the U.S. can easily get the currency it needs without being beholden to anyone. But wouldn't that dilute the value of the currency? No.

A month ago, the bond vigilantes were screaming that the Fed’s QE2 would be the first step on the road to Zimbabwe-style hundred trillion dollar notes.  Zimbabwe (the former Southern Rhodesia) is the poster example of what can go wrong when a government pays its bills by printing money.  Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in 2008, when its currency hyperinflated to the point that it was trading with the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 10 trillion to 1.  On November 29, Cullen Roche wrote in the Pragmatic Capitalist:

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Auto Sales Held Steady in November / Economics / US Auto's

By: Asha_Bangalore

Sales of autos held steady in November at an annual rate of 12.26, which supports expectations of growth in consumer spending in the fourth quarter, close to the 2.8% increase seen in the third quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Survey – Slight Moderation in U.S. Factory Activity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The ISM manufacturing survey results for November show a moderation in the pace of activity. The level of the composite index during November (56.6) suggests that the manufacturing is growing but at a slightly slower pace compared with October (56.9). Indexes tracking new orders (56.6 vs. 58.9 in October) and production (55.0 vs. 62.7 in October) declined but are holding above 50.0. Indexes measuring employment and exports dropped, while the import orders index moved up during November. The national index points to a mild slowing in factory conditions, while the November regional surveys of Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York sent a more bullish message.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October.  Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November.  There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders. 

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Economics

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

IMF and EU Hammer Ireland / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe terms of the EU/IMF's €85 billion ($113 billion) bailout for Ireland are much worse than analysts had anticipated. Ireland will be required to use its National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) to shore up its insolvent banks and to maintain government operations. At the same time, senior debt-holders will not share any of the losses brought on by the banks reckless lending. According to Bloomberg News, "Prime Minister Brian Cowen told reporters there had been no support in talks to ask senior bondholders to lose part of their stake on loans made to Ireland's debt-crippled banks." Thus, 100 percent of the EU/IMF's €85 billion "Financial Rescue Package" will be paid for by Irish taxpayers.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

U.S. Household Debt Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe soft trajectory of consumer spending and continued reduction in residential investment expenditures reflects the sharp reduction in household debt. Outstanding home mortgages have dropped from $10.606 trillion in the first quarter of 2008 to $10.126 trillion in the second quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1). Household credit card debt has fallen roughly $157 billion from the peak in the third quarter of 2008 to $2.41 trillion (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Monday, November 29, 2010

India: Land of Hope and Economic Growth / Economics / India

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIndian markets have rebounded nicely from the crisis, outperforming both the U.S. and China over the past three years. As of November 23, India’s Sensex was up just over 6 percent for the past three years, while the S&P 500 Index was down more than 16 percent and China’s Hang Seng Index was down 43 percent over the same time period.

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Economics

Monday, November 29, 2010

Modern Academic Economists Misinterpret Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Barry_Elias

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you are interested in promoting long-term, sustainable economic growth, I submit the velocity of money is more pertinent than the quantity of money (quantitative easing).

Apparently, many modern economists haven’t focused sufficiently on this economic parameter.

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Economics

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Slow Economic Recovery and Recessions on the Margin / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecessions Are on the Margin
A Rose is Still a Rose
If It Feels Like a Recession
The Rough Road Back

And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?

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Economics

Saturday, November 27, 2010

The Euro Zone’s Debt Crisis Timeout Is Expiring! / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Bryan_Rich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast year’s Thanksgiving weekend was an unusually active holiday news cycle.

Of course, it was when Tiger Woods had his bizarre car accident outside of his home. That saga would dominate the news for months to come. The lesser-followed news item of that weekend came out of Dubai when the emirate announced it would restructure its sovereign debt.

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