Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, September 28, 2012
Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Market 20 Times Total Global Economy GDP / Economics / Derivatives
John Rolls Submits: The Derivatives market was only 500 trillion in 2008 when it almost blew up in all our faces. Now it is 3 times that size, what a monster balloon! when it blows no one survives that has money in the banks or in the mattress. You better start investing in silver and gold which is real money not fiat. Financial hell is coming if you put your faith in the banks! .Yes it’s about capitalism but notice he also uses the politically incorrect word MORAL, no system of any type is worth using without basic ethical and moral principles as the basis of it. Needless to say, GREED runs this system and has for quite a while and unless and until honor and virtue replace it…the system will continue to increase unpayable debt and bring the economic system to a tragic and very messy ruin.
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Balancing Lenders and Borrowers is the Most Economically Stimulating / Economics / Economic Stimulus
Keeping interest rates low has always been perceived to be stimulating. This is based on the premise that borrowers are more inclined to borrow when rates are low. This is undeniably true, however, this simplification totally removes the lenders from the equation, which have an equal role in stimulation.
By definition the maximum activity (thereby stimulation) occurs when the number of borrowers is the same as the number of lenders. By definition this occurs at the MARKET PRICE. To artificially move rates either way from the market price suppresses either one group or the other and thereby de-stimulates.
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Monday, September 24, 2012
Keynsian Animal Spirits / Economics / Economic Theory
The BBC is running a three-part series on notable economists, starting with Keynes. There were a number of errors made, but I shall ignore those and address two Keynesian fallacies. The first was that Keynes correctly anticipated the economic and political consequences of the Versailles Treaty, which inflicted punitive reparations on Germany: this was true. It was bizarrely extrapolated to the current situation, concluding that Germany must reduce its prosperity and economic power to a level closer to that of the other Eurozone countries in the interests of economic balance.
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Saturday, September 22, 2012
Why QE3 Won’t Jumpstart the Economy and What Would / Economics / Quantitative Easing
The economy could use a good dose of “aggregate demand”—new spending money in the pockets of consumers—but QE3 won’t do it. Neither will it trigger the dreaded hyperinflation. In fact, it won’t do much at all. There are better alternatives.
The Fed’s announcement on September 13, 2012, that it was embarking on a third round of quantitative easing has brought the “sound money” crew out in force, pumping out articles with frighting titles such as “QE3 Will Unleash’ Economic Horror’ On The Human Race.” The Fed calls QE an asset swap, swapping Fed-created dollars for other assets on the banks’ balance sheets. But critics call it “reckless money printing” and say it will inevitably produce hyperinflation. Too much money will be chasing too few goods, forcing prices up and the value of the dollar down.
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Saturday, September 22, 2012
Inflation and Inflation Expectations Analysis / Economics / Inflation
Since the Federal Reserve initiated its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) last week, critics have expressed concern that the policy would ultimately be inflationary. Investors also seemed to sense a higher risk in this area; gold and other commodities have rallied as portfolios seek to hedge against this outcome. In response, several Federal Reserve officials have been out defending the central bank’s action.
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Friday, September 21, 2012
Do Trade Deficits and Surpluses Matter? / Economics / Economic Theory
Why read: Because I believe that where a country runs continuous net trade deficits and increasing net cumulative trade deficits that is a bad thing in the context of the economic well-being of that country. Others disagree, and in the current economic environment where the United States - still the world's most important economy - continuously:
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Friday, September 21, 2012
Today’s Global Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression? / Economics / Great Depression 2010's
What Do Economic Indicators Say?
We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:
Friday, September 21, 2012
Eurozone Panic! Steepest Economic Contraction Since June 2009, Global Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
The global recession which started in Europe, is strengthening led by further declines in the eurozone. Markit reports Eurozone sees steepest contraction since June 2009 despite downturn easing in Germany.
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Friday, September 21, 2012
Forget About QE… I’m Worried About UC / Economics / Inflation
Let’s just be blunt here.
Inflation is back in a big way. It’s not going to show up in the official numbers, but if you’ve paid for gas or food or healthcare recently, you’ve no doubt noticed that:
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Money Printing Stimulus, Is this the world’s most important debate? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Last week the Bernanke Fed recommenced its interventionist tendencies and announced QE3. The world’s most important central bank will be able to buy its previously targeted range of securities to the tune of $40bn a month.
The Fed probably felt newly empowered by the ECB’s recent promises to action, and the deliberately awe inspiring words of ‘Super’ Mario Draghi. The world’s most systemically important central banks are building their balance sheets and with it an even bigger hand in the world’s most important financial game of poker.
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Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Why You Should Prepare for Econcomic Catastrophe / Economics / Inflation
It is not often that readers get a clear-cut choice between two forecasts. Most forecasts have wiggle room. Not the following.
1. The United States government will default.
2. The United States government will not default.
I hold the first position. John T. Harvey holds the second. He wrote a piece for Forbes defending his position: "It Is Impossible For The US To Default".
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Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Mexico, the “Forgotten” Emerging Market / Economics / Mexico
Mexico is the closest emerging market to the US, after all, it’s right next door but it hasn’t been getting much attention from American investors.A major reason is Mexico’s close linkage to the economic behemoth to its north. Mexico doesn’t just catch cold when America sneezes; it comes down with a nasty case of pneumonia.
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Monday, September 17, 2012
Slow Painful Economic Death Spiral of Debasement and Despair / Economics / Great Depression II
ARE YOU SEEING WHAT I’M SEEING?
Is it just me, or are the signs of consumer collapse as clear as a Lowes parking lot on a Saturday afternoon? Sometimes I wonder if I'm just seeing the world through my pessimistic lens, skewing my point of view. My daily commute through West Philadelphia is not very enlightening, as the squalor, filth and lack of legal commerce remain consistent from year to year. This community is sustained by taxpayer subsidized low income housing, taxpayer subsidized food stamps, welfare payments, and illegal drug dealing. The dependency attitude, lifestyles of slothfulness and total lack of commerce has remained constant for decades in West Philly. It is on the weekends, cruising around a once thriving suburbia, where you perceive the persistent deterioration and decay of our debt fixated consumer spending based society.
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Sunday, September 16, 2012
Is the "Fiscal Cliff" a Threat to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Taxes
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on August 22, 2012, that scheduled tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 would reverse the current modest economic recovery. The CBO and other experts are of the view that large government spending cuts and tax hikes will cause severe economic slump.
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Sunday, September 16, 2012
Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure on Prices Has Only Begun / Economics / Deflation
You've heard (and probably used) the phrase, "I'd rather watch the game on television."
It's what a sports fan says if he doesn't want to face traffic jams, inadequate parking, overpriced tickets, noisy crowds, and possibly a poor view of the game.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
Hyperinflation Is Virtually Assured – John Williams / Economics / HyperInflation
The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.”
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012
A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation / Economics / Deflation
Harry Dent gave a speech I listened to a while back, and I got him to transcribe it for this week's Outside the Box. One thing about Harry is, you are never left wondering what he thinks about a topic. He sees inevitable demography-caused deflation in our future and makes some very intriguing arguments that deserve pondering.
At the end is a link to another report and a way to subscribe to his letter, if you are interested in more of his perspective. But first, I suggest you read this straightforward, informative presentation. There is also a link to the actual video of him speaking, should you prefer that.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012
ECB Calmed the Markets, Will China Act Next? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
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Sunday, September 09, 2012
How Down Economic Statistics Can Be Up if You Make the Rules, QE3? / Economics / Economic Statistics
"In the financial markets, the current economic cycle is still often viewed as if it is comparable to the far shorter cycles we have experienced since World War II. If that was indeed the case, the solution would be to implement fiscal and monetary stimuli now until lending to the private sector and thereby growth rise substantially. However, what is being overlooked is that the total debt/GDP ratio has risen so sharply over the past 75 years that the limit has probably been reached.
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Saturday, September 08, 2012
U.S. August Employment Data Contains Ample Evidence to Justify QE3 / Economics / Employment
Before examining the nitty-gritty aspects of the August employment report, the main take away is that the overall tone of the numbers is disappointing. In addition, recent economic reports also cast a long shadow. The three consecutive monthly readings of the factory PMI that are below the critical mark of 50 (which denotes a contraction in factory activity) and the drop in July construction outlays are each sufficiently worrisome signals to win over the skeptics in the FOMC.
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