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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Deflation Ahead / Economics / Deflation

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecently, I had the privilege of watching the YouTube video below of a lecture given in Australia by Professor Niall Ferguson

In my view, except for the fact that Professor Ferguson did not even make a passing reference to the critical importance of energy in the economic stew, I think he absolutely nailed the current economic situation. He was looking at the world economy from the perspective of long term history – which I believe is most appropriate at this point in time. He is unequivocally of the view that the probabilities favour deflation. For various reasons, I agree with him.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

America's "Money Time Bomb": Quantitative Easing is Inflationary / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith Ben Bernanke as our Shepard how can we go wrong? He tells us quantitative easing is not inflationary. He says that with assurance because he knows all the CPI statistics are as realistic as a Madoff Ponzi scheme. He also tells us he doesn’t create money out of thin air. He fails to mention that he does so digitally. His job is to further enrich the elitists who own the Fed and want to create a new world order. Prices are up 6-3/4% across the board as official inflation has only risen 1.2%.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Global and Regional Economic Outlook 2011 / Economics / Global Economy

By: David_Urban

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe problem with making a year long commentary is that things can change which throws off your initial theory.  That was the main problem with my forecast as Bernanke decided to launch QE2 amidst criticism from global central banks. This put a floor under the market and lit the fuse for the rally in equities and commodities. 

So what happens in 2011 and how does that affect investment portfolios?  From my chair looking out over the world here is what I see happening based on current events.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Price Inflation to Pay the Debt / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe lights of the Mogambo Security System (MSS) glowed dimly in the gloom of the bunker as I cowered in the darkness, and there were no sounds except the thumping, thumping, thumping of my terrified heart at The World Outside (TWO), a place I consider to be a vicious, hostile environment containing not only enemies of every sort, both real and imagined, but family members who want to know if I am coming out for dinner, or to tell me that someone is on the phone for me, or that somebody is going to greedily eat the last of my treasured Double-Stuf Oreos, somehow trying to get me outside and into their clutches so that they can take all my money and ask me to sign various forms and documents.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate Fed Sees "Slow Progress" Towards Full Employment / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  In this regard, the minutes indicate that the FOMC sees "only a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment."  A few participants held that an upside risk could emerge from a sharp growth in bank lending, given the easy monetary policy stance in place.  At the same time, there was a great deal of concern about the housing market, particularly the large supply of unsold homes. 

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Economics

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Economists Can't Forecast for Toffee, In Defense of the “Old Always” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the name of James Montier, who is now with GMO in their London office. Today, James, with his usual acerbic wit, takes on the notion of the "New Normal" and offers us a defense of the "Old Always." James is a value investor and sees mean reversion as still alive and kicking, where some proponents of the New Normal think we should throw out all of the old aphorisms. While I am in the New Normal camp, I also agree with James. This makes for some quick and thought-provoking reading.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

The ISM Manufacturing Survey Kicks Off the New Year on a Bullish Note / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. manufacturing sector closed the year on a strong footing and kicked off 2011 with bullish news on the first trading. The ISM manufacturing composite index moved up to 57.0 in December vs. 56.6 in November, the highest reading since May 2010. The sharp increases in indexes tracking new orders (60.9 vs. 56. 6 in November) and production (60.7 vs. 55 in November) accounted for the higher composite index in December. Indexes measuring employment, vendor deliveries, inventories, exports and imports declined in December but are holding above 50.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion while those below 50.0 are indicative of a contraction.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Australia Heading for Economic Crunch as Families Face Financial Collapse / Economics / Austrailia

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe party is over in Australia. Many anti-dollar investors and Pollyannas living down under just don't realize it yet. Nonetheless, Australia faces an economic crunch as family finances collapse under the burden of record debts, rising interest rates and utility bills.

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Economics

Monday, January 03, 2011

China’s Economy Is Being Pulled in All Directions / Economics / China Economy

By: Barry_Elias

I recently suggested it was possible to have high unemployment and inflation at the same time. Zimbabwe experienced unemployment above 90 percent while hyperinflation took over.

The basis for this is rather simple: demand for basic necessities, such as water and food, remain relatively constant irrespective of income.

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Economics

Friday, December 31, 2010

The Economic Flop That Was 2010 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bill_Bonner

The year is almost over. Time to write the obituaries.

What kind of year was it? A flop. A failure. A loser. Just like we said it would be.

It was a “year that fizzled,” writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times.

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Economics

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Is Big Government a Myth? / Economics / Government Spending

By: Robert_Murphy

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLately the supporters of big government have deployed an interesting twist to their arguments, claiming that it is a dirty right-wing lie that government has grown under the Obama administration. Unlike arguments over economic theory, surely this should be an objective exercise in looking up the facts.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Is Inflation Directly Tied to the Money Supply? / Economics / Inflation

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome argue that increased money supply (freshly printed dollars) automatically translates to inflation. This is not exactly true, and it’s important to understand why.

How do you define inflation? In some ways it's a slippery thing, like trying to nail Jell-O to a tree. One common definition amounts to "a general and sustained rise in the price of goods and services." Another is "a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money."

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Monetary Tightening Threatens China’s Economic Prospects / Economics / China Economy

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina’s role on the global stage has grown tremendously during the past several years. And there are valid reasons to believe this trend will continue. But it will not go as smoothly as many pundits assume …

On Christmas Day, Beijing raised the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent and 5.81 percent respectively. This is the second step in the current tightening cycle, following the first surprise 25 bps hike on October 19.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Bogus Economic Statistics Used as a Coverup Adding Fuel to the Financial Fire / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, would have us believe that, quantitative easing is the only way to save the US economy and to reverse the unemployment problem. He conveniently forgets to tell you that he authored a paper in 1988 with Mr. Michael Baskin that concluded that what Mr. Bernanke is doing with QE does not work. He told watchers of “60 Minutes” that the jobless rate would have been far higher; something like it was in the “Great Depression” at 25%. If Mr. Bernanke had taken time to have his minions do the research, he would have found that U3 at the peak of the “Great Depression” was 25.2% and U6 was 37.6%. As we write U3 is 9.8% and U6 is 17%.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The Emperor Keynes Still Has No Clothes / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is time to consider the recommendation and economic analysis of Yale University economist Robert Shiller. He is widely respected, the co-designer of the Case-Shiller index, which traces housing prices in 20 American cities. He coined the phrase "irrational exuberance," which was made famous by Alan Greenspan in the mid-1990s.

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