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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, August 04, 2011

A Double Dip Recession? How Do We Protect Ourselves / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: George_Maniere

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article           Today I am going to do something really amazing. I am going to tell you that in my opinion the U.S. economy has not entered a second recession; it never came out of the first one. Well, before you professional economists start writing me that the Webster’s definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth I will simply say for who? Indeed there are many Americans who have been so economically ravaged by this crisis that they have not lived through a recession - they have endured a depression. A Gallup poll that was released in April (when the DOW was 800 points higher than today’s close) said that 29% of the people polled didn’t care what the definition of a recession was. They said they were in a depression. Add to that, another 26% polled said that they felt they had never come out of the original recession.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

US Manufacturing Indicative of Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The double dip is one of the worst phenomena of an on-going recession.  When an economy double dips, the losers of the first dip who were confident enough to enter into a small recovery are wiped out, thus setting the course for a very long second leg in an economic crisis.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Bill Gross "we are at a tipping point for another recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Carol Massar this afternoon about the debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.

Gross said that the debt-ceiling deal is a “Republican Tea Party victory” and that “we are at a tipping point” in terms of a recession. Excerpts from the interview are below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default?

Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are More Important, Debt-Ceiling Deal is an Induced Necessity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn July 31, President Obama, Senator Reid, and House Speaker Boehner shook hands on a deal that will be voted on later today. The deal negotiated would lead to a total reduction of the budget deficit by $2.1 trillion during the 2012-2021 period. It also includes raising the debt ceiling between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion by the final months of 2012. The timing and magnitude of the spending cuts as indicated in Table 3 of the latest scoring from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's assessment of new legislation)point to discretionary spending cuts in the entire 2012-2021 period. Lower federal government outlays in 2012 in a fragile economic environment are a setback to economic growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Recession is "Real Risk" According to Dow Jones ESI Indicator / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Further adding to the evidence of a huge US slowdown, a Dow Jones Sentiment Indicator says Return to a Recession is a Real Risk

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Next Down Leg of the U.S. Housing Bear Market has Begun / Economics / US Housing

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNow that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it's time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward.

The Fed's monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It's important to recall that the final "hard down" portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Source of Profits in the Business of Financial Speculation / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Aftab_Singh

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is scarcely an endeavor awash with more debate, allure, dogma and contempt than the business of financial speculation. The entire investment community is often derided as ‘just a bunch of gamblers’, the most successful speculators are often dismissed as ‘lucky’ and the very pursuit has even been likened to prancing around a fire with two horns on one’s temples. Naturally, we beg to differ. Here, I refute some of these commonly held misconceptions and outline our perception of the rudimentary source of consistent speculative gains.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Great Correction: 4 Years…and Counting…Still No Economic Recovery in Sight / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’m glad to be the last speaker. Nobody can come after me and tell you why I’m wrong about everything. Instead, I get to tell you why the other speakers were numbskulls. Besides, we all have a tendency to be most influenced by the last person we talk to. Or at least I do.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

How Deep is the Global Economic Rabbit Hole? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Greg_Tomlinson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQuite simply, the world’s debt hole is deeper than any reasonable person can comprehend. It is difficult to define, and it is not terribly easy to write about - really it’s more of a concept than something that you can actually sink your teeth into. You won’t see an abundance of stories or editorials on this topic; in fact the financial media avoids the global debt situation like the plague for good reason. Sure, they talk about chunks of it, but almost never in total. However, with your indulgence, it is the purpose of this piece to bring us all a bit closer to not just understanding how dangerous things have become to all of us personally, but more importantly to frame the problem in terms of history and scale.

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Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Vices of the Modern Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Aftab_Singh

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few months back, I wrote about a virtue of the MMT; namely, the way it focuses on sectoral balances. I think that this view is both interesting and useful for the contrarian investor. However, I do have some misgivings with the convictions of the typical Modern Monetary theorist. Here, I discuss some of the problems with the MMT frame of mind.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Canada Surprise GDP Economic Contraction, Largest Drop in Two Years, It's Not Temporary / Economics / Canada

By: Mike_Shedlock

Lost in the US deficit battles and the pathetic US GDP statistics comes yet another surprise: Canada’s Economy Shrank 0.3% in May Posting the Largest Drop in Two Years

Canada’s gross domestic product fell in May by the most in two years due to temporary disruptions in the mining and oil and gas sector, government data showed.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Economy Operating at Stall Speed, Recession in Our Future? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plus a lot of staff. Getting ten Senators in a room for 90-plus minutes is not so often done. I will report in this week's letter about our conversation and my impressions.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Q2 GDP The Numbers Don't Add Up / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQ1 2011 GDP was revised one final time from 1.9% to 0.4% and Q2 2011 GDP the first estimate was 1.3%. Before analyzing the data I have one very simple question.

Economic growth slowed during Q2 as acknowledged by the Fed and indicated by regional Fed surveys, ISM, durable goods, etc so how could Q2 GDP be higher than Q1 GDP? That would imply the economy accelerated and clearly that has not happened. In other words just as Q1 2008 was eventually shown as the start of the great recession so will Q2 2011 in subsequent revisions.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Real GDP Revisions Indicate Economy Still in Recovery Phase / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter after a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in the first quarter (previously estimated to have increased 1.9%). From a year ago, real GDP advanced only 1.6%, the smallest increase in the current recovery.

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Economics

Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. Debt Default or Credit Ratings Downgrade Could Crush the Global Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: If there's a "worst-case scenario" for this whole debt-ceiling debacle, this is it.

After studying everything that could happen due to a downgrade of the United States' top-tier AAA credit rating, and the potential default on its debt, we found a scenario that would result in forced asset sales that are so widespread that global stock-and-bond markets would plunge - and economies around the world would crash.

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Economics

Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. Debt Ceiling Consquences, If Cooler Heads Do Not Prevail / Economics / US Debt

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Our working assumption is that legislation authorizing an increase on the ceiling on federal debt will be enacted in time for the U.S. Treasury to make all of its previously-authorized expenditures. If, however, this legislation is not passed, then the U.S. federal budget will move into balance. In the 12 months ended June 2011, the Treasury had run a cumulative budget deficit of $1.26 trillion. For the sake of argument, let's assume that the August 2011 budget deficit at an annual rate also is $1.26 trillion. At an annual rate, this is the amount that federal outlays would immediately decline. $1.26 trillion is about 8.4% of what U.S. nominal GDP was running at an annualized pace in the first quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2011

U.S. Businesses Appear to Have Selective Uncertainty / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I keep hearing that what is holding U.S. businesses back from expanding and hiring is “uncertainty.” Exactly what new types of uncertainty businesses face in the current environment vs. past environments is rarely spelled out. But if, in fact, businesses are paralyzed due to uncertainty, I would not expect them to be stepping up their purchases of capital equipment. After all, capital equipment has a relatively long life. If businesses were unusually uncertain about the long-term outlook, they would be more reluctant to make longer-term commitments, which the purchase of capital equipment is. Rather, if businesses were unusually uncertain about the future, they might be more inclined to hire workers, who, after all, can be dismissed on short notice if conditions were to change suddenly.

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Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2011

U.S. Debt Limit Debate Sign of Deeper Economic Dysfunction / Economics / US Debt

By: The_Gold_Report

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShadowStats Editor John Williams advises legislators to stop fooling around with the country's credit rating. Regardless of the deal reached, he predicts that the Treasury and Fed will continue to print money to meet obligations and add liquidity to the economy. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he explains how that will have the effect of pushing the price of gold and other commodities even higher.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Washington Had a Spending Problem / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBut does it have one now and through 2017? In an historical context, no. Consider Chart 1, which shows the rate of growth in the 12-month cumulative amount of total federal outlays from year-ago month. In the 12 months ended June 2011, total federal outlays are up 3.28% from 12 months ended June 2010 -well below the 6.64% median growth in this 12-month cumulative total from December 1955 through June 2011. So, Washington hardly has a spending problem now vs. history.

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