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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Hampson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.

Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Fed Wants Even Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

Today, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will continue to purchase government securities as previously announced ("QE2"), including reinvesting principal payments from its holdings.

The FOMC downgraded its economic growth forecast, acknowledged inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation, yet insists inflation remains too low. The Fed considers inflationary pressures to be transitory, but monitors the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle.  I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them.  However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now. 

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The Most Reliable Measure of Real Consumer Price Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe’ve always wondered why there is so much debate about the rate of inflation. It seems like such a simple thing to track. You go in the store. You buy a box of Wheaties. You write down the price. Next month, you do the same thing. What’s so hard about that?

But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Can We Give The Hyperinflation Thing a Rest? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Federal Reserve is not going to push the economy into Zimbabwean hyperinflation. That's pure bunkum. The Fed's plan is to weaken the dollar to boost exports and to force China to let its currency appreciate to its fair-market value. The policy should help to lower the US's bulging current account deficit. By purchasing $600 billion in US Treasuries (QE2), the Fed effectively reduces the supply of risk-free assets, which sends investors into riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Is there an element of class warfare in the policy?

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Economics

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

QE2 and the Fate of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: David_Galland

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy David Galland, Casey Research : In the last few weeks, I’ve become particularly “attentive” to the intentions of Fed policy makers following the scheduled June end date for QE2.

This is no small matter; an actual shift in Fed policy – as opposed to the smoke and mirrors sort – could temporarily play havoc on equities and commodities markets alike. How could it be otherwise, when under QE2 the Fed has been writing checks to the Treasury in amounts of upwards of $100 billion a month since last November?

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Economics

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

QE2 is Damaging the U.S. Economy and Reducing GDP Growth / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQE2 is going to go down as one of the worst monetary policy initiatives in the history of the modern Federal Reserve era. On almost any metric applied, QE2 ends up not only falling well short of its proposed goals, but actually turns certain metrics like GDP growth negative compared with the prior quarter, and heading in the wrong direction.

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Economics

Monday, April 25, 2011

Inflation is No Miracle Cure, Impossible to Inflation Out of this Mess / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are reading The "Miracle" of Compound Inflation by John Mauldin. Here are a few paragraphs worthy of a closer look.

Albert Einstein is famously quoted as saying, "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world." And compounding is indeed the topic of this week's shorter than usual letter, but compounding not of interest but of inflation.

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Economics

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Deepening Economic Crisis: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Surge in the Price of Gold and Silver / Economics / Inflation

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic recovery does not seem to be taking effect in spite of more massive expenditures by Congress and the Fed. The IMF says financial stability has improved, but then again their vision is almost always clouded. US tax revenues are not increasing in a meaningful way, manufacturing struggles to expand and Wall Street flourishes in a cascade of mega salaries and bonuses. In another six months the US will be three years what the government, the media and Wall Street call a deep recession. We call it an inflationary depression, which has existed for 26 months. After eight years of increasing money and credit, and the creation of a real estate bubble, the Fed has been fighting off asset destruction with ever more money and credit accompanied by debt deflation. Part of the Fed’s policy has been zero interest rates, which has helped Wall Street and banking and to a limited extent real estate, but has destroyed the purchasing power of retirees and has driven funds into speculation, which in many cases has ended in ever more losses and less buying power.

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Economics

Sunday, April 24, 2011

The 'Miracle' of Compound Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlbert Einstein is famously quoted as saying, "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world." And compounding is indeed the topic of this week's shorter than usual letter, but compounding not of interest but of inflation. As you might expect, I am giving a great deal of thought as to how we get out of our current financial dilemma of too much debt and deficits that are far too high. While I will use US data for our illustration, the principles are the same for any country.

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Economics

Sunday, April 24, 2011

BRIC Inflation, GDP, Stock Indexes, Monetary Policy Economic Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: EconGrapher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week the focus goes to the giants of the emerging markets, the "BRIC" economies (the economic/investment one, not the political club). In this edition we review inflation, GDP, monetary policy and the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Also thrown in is a quick review of the monetary policy decisions over the past week.

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Economics

Saturday, April 23, 2011

The Deflation Threat is Still Alive, Here's Why / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."

This quote comes from Ralph Waldo Emerson's essay, "Compensation." He opens the essay with a poem which includes these two lines:

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Economics

Friday, April 22, 2011

Whiff of Decelerating Trend in Second Tier U.S. Economic Reports / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March employment report, including a 8.8% unemployment rate and a gain of 230,000 private sector jobs, set a bullish tone early in the month, but today's reports are sending a different message.  Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 403,000 during the week ended April 16.  The four-week moving average at 399,000 has moved up 391,000 posted four weeks ago. 

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Fear the Economic Boom, Not the Bust / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePatrick Barron writes: All of the industrial world's central banks and public treasuries currently are engaged in an impossible exercise — trying to reinflate an artificially created boom through zero interest rates and deficit spending. The reality is that the current financial crisis was caused by central-bank money expansion, so it cannot be cured by further money expansion. It is as if a doctor is continuing to bleed a patient who is already bleeding to death.

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Economics

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Slowing U.S. Economic Recovery Faces Strong Headwinds in 2011 / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The U.S. economic recovery has been heading upward, but high unemployment and rising energy prices will weigh heavily on consumers and slow U.S. growth.

Many economists don't think the U.S. economy will maintain the 3.1% growth rate it established in 2010's fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that while global growth this year will continue at a rate of 4.8%, advanced regions like the United States will grow at a slower rate than emerging economies.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Is Deflation Still a Threat, the Deflation Survival Guide" Gives the Answer / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."

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Economics

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Will China’s Economy Overheat? / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina’s GDP growth continued at a blistering pace during the first quarter of 2011, rising 9.7 percent from the previous year, according to economic data released today from the People’s Bank of China. Once again this outpaced many forecasts—even that of the Chinese government—and reignited the discussion of China’s overheating economy. While its robust growth may raise a few eyebrows, the economy isn’t in danger of “red-lining.”

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Economics

Monday, April 18, 2011

Inflation Destroys Real Wages / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

In the same vein as medieval physicians believed bloodletting would cure illness, modern snake-oil economists still perilously cling to their claim that rising wages and salaries are the cause of inflation. With my recent debates with these mainstream economists, I've heard the following: "without rising wages, where does the money come from to push prices higher?" I was tempted to respond, "where do the employers get the money to pay those higher wages?" But economists tend to get a little nasty when you make them feel stupid.

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Economics

Monday, April 18, 2011

Japan, the Forgotten Protectionist Threat / Economics / Protectionism

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone's worried about China today on the trade front. And they should be.

But let's not forget that China is only the most brazen player of one-way free trade out there. We ran a $273 billion deficit with China in 2010, but we also ran an $80 billion deficit with the European Union and a $60 billion deficit with Japan.

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Economics

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Inflation Versus Hyperinflation, The Crucial Difference / Economics / Inflation

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs it possible we will see hyperinflation in the United States? Yes, but not by the route you might think...

"Hyperinflation." You've heard the word. You may have talked about it on the golf course or at the dinner table. (Or even in the grocery store.)

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