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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, March 05, 2011

U.S. February Employment Situation, Consistent Message of Improvement But Inadequate to Terminate QE2 / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.9% in February vs. 9.0% in January. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.

Payroll Employment: 192,000 in February vs. +63,000 in January. Private sector jobs increased 222,000 after a gain of 68,000 in January. Revisions for October and November resulted in a net gain of 58,000 jobs in the economy.

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Economics

Friday, March 04, 2011

Inflation and Tax Rises Crush Britain's Middle Class, Real Earnings 25% Drop! / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK annual earnings grew at an annualised rate of 1.1% (December 2010), this compares against the official UK inflation rate of CPI 4% and the more recognised RPI at 5.1%, with the real UK inflation rate as experienced by most of the people of Britain running at 6.6%.

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Economics

Friday, March 04, 2011

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Show Noticeable Improvement / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 368,000 during the week ended February 27.  This reading is the lowest since May 2008 (see Chart 8).  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, declined 59,000 to 3.774 million, the lowest since October 2008 (see Chart 9).  Both of these readings suggest a noticeable improvement in the labor market.  The number of applicants obtaining unemployment insurance under the special programs increased roughly 57,000 for the week ended February 13.  

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2011

U.S. Economic Death Spiral Into the Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke’s Unstoppable, Self Reinforcing, Negative-Feedback-Loop

Our economic death spiral into the Second Great Depression

Wracked up by both parties over many decades our debt has evolved into a yearly deficit that can no longer be serviced with tax revenue and borrowing.

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Caught: Krugman's Shifting Arguments / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's not newsworthy when Paul Krugman contradicts himself. However, in two recent blog posts on the varying economic fortunes of US states, Krugman's about-face was so complete and so fast that I just have to share.

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2011

What If The China Bubble Bursts / Economics / China Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRuss Winter writes: “If the situation does not improve, we’ll definitely want to quit (production).  The sun is setting on the Christmas product industry (in China) right now.”   — Owner of arts and craft factory in Shantou

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Inflation and the Value of Gold Explained / Economics / Gold and Silver 2011

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRod Rojas writes: As the story goes, someone asked an economist how his wife was doing, and the economist answered "compared to what?"

Joking aside, this is one of the most important questions one can ask when dealing with many economic problems.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

ISM Manufacturing Forward Momentum in U.S. Factory Sector Remains in Place / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe composite index of ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in the prior month.  Indexes tracking new orders, production, employment, vendor deliveries, exports, and prices advanced in February.  The composite index is highest since May 2004 (see Chart 4).  The advances in production, new orders, employment, and exports are noteworthy. 

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Bernanke "Fed Prepared to Respond as Necessary" to Support Economic Recovery and Price Stability / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA likely threat of inflation following the Fed's extraordinary monetary accommodation and rising commodity prices is the most discussed topic in recent days. Chairman Bernanke addressed concerns about inflation in lucid terms in his semi-annual testimony this morning. First, he noted that the "rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad indexes of U.S. consumer prices has been quite low in recent decades, partly reflecting the relatively small weight of materials inputs in total production as well as the stability of longer-term inflation expectations."

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Economics

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

U.S. Manufacturing “Red Hot”? Dream On / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

There is an article in the Huffington Post today which, before apparently being retitled, asserted in its headline that U.S. manufacturing is now "red hot," and whose text quotes a financial analyst (apparently approvingly) who asserts that it is.

This is based on a report from the respected Institute for Supply-Chain Management which reports that manufacturing output in the U.S. has expanded for 19 months straight.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Government Proposed Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending

Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming nothing is done to tax rates, this means that the government's current borrowing will fall commensurately. (This represents a shift in the demand curve for credit, not a movement along it.) All else the same, the interest rates, with the exception of the one-day federal funds rate, which is targeted by the Federal Reserve, will decline as the demand for credit declines.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Deflation Confusion: Money Is Not Credit / Economics / Deflation

By: Robert_Blumen

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe end is near. The end, that is, of the current monetary system. But inflation or deflation? Dow 1,000 or wheelbarrow money? While the arguments on the deflation side are not entirely without merit, they rely on conceptual errors that result in exaggerating the magnitude of a possible deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

China's Five-Year Economic Plan Calls For Slower Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: China will take steps to cool off its red-hot economy in the next five years largely by increasing domestic consumption and de-emphasizing exports, Premier Wen Jiabao announced in an online chat with the country's citizens on Sunday.

Wen, China's leading economic official, said the government's official target for average gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next five years will be reduced to 7% annually, down from a target of 7.5% in the past half decade.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints, But Partly Weather-Related / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.1% in January after a 0.3% increase in the prior month.  Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3% but this strength was offset by declines in purchases of non-durables (-0.2% vs. +0.1% in December) and services (-0.1% vs. +0.2% in December). 

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Economics

Monday, February 28, 2011

Trade Solutions That Won’t Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Americans in recent decades have not, of course, been entirely unaware that America has a trade problem. This has drawn into public debate a long list of proposed solutions. Unfortunately, many will not work, some are based on analytical confusions, and a few are outright nonsense. If we are to understand the true scope of our problem and frame solutions that will work, these false hopes must be debunked forthwith.

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Economics

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Why a Flat Tariff on All U.S. Imports Would Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI advocate protectionism. But one standard criticism is that this would just result in politically connected industries getting tariffs raised on the products they produce. This would corrupt our economy, force consumers to pay higher prices, and serve no legitimate economic logic.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Economic Booms, Busts, and Food Prices / Economics / Food Crisis

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMaybe you have heard about rising food prices. It is happening all over the world. We hear of Third World rural populations that are trapped by rising food prices.

Why are food prices rising? Simple: because urban people in formerly Third World nations are getting richer. India and China are the obvious examples. As these economies are freed from the regulations that once burdened them, the growing urban middle class bids up the price of food. People with money in their pockets like to eat more and better food. In the bidding war between rural people with little capital and therefore low incomes vs. urban residents with more capital and higher incomes, rural people lose.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

In Praise of Mercantilism, or Why Economic History Isn’t Boring / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoes economic history hold a giant clue for getting America out of its present trade mess? Yes, because it debunks the idea that free trade is how nations become prosperous. Instead, it shows that nations win at international trade by playing a 400-year-old game called mercantilism.

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Economics

Saturday, February 26, 2011

U.S. Real Growth GDP for Q4 2010 Revised Lower to 2.8% from 3.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDownward revisions of consumer spending (4.1% vs. 4.4% advance estimate) and state & local government outlays (-2.4% vs. -0.9% advance estimate) were the two major sources of revisions accounting for the reduction in the pace of growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 2.8% from 3.2% in the advance estimate.  In addition, spending on equipment and software and residential investment expenditures were reported to have advanced at a slower clip in the fourth quarter (see table below). 

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Economics

Friday, February 25, 2011

The Economic Recovery that Never Was / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is my belief that as the headlines continue to roll in about fiscal woes from sea to shining sea that we are going to get a full appreciation for the fraud that has been perpetrated on the American people in the form of the ‘economic recovery’ that the media has been stumping for since the middle of 2009. This ‘wag the dog’ type undertaking has been about confidence, perceptions, and little else. Absolutely, there are pockets of the nation where people have found work. After all, when your government dumps nearly a trillion dollars into the economy it is going to have SOME effect. Our goal from the beginning of these hyperstimulation maneuvers was to point out the unsustainability of this course of action and more importantly to predict the consequences thereof.

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