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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most / Economics / Deflation

By: Janet_Tavakoli

The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy. Current stock market exuberance reflects earnings increases at selective companies that benefited from sputtering stimulus programs. In late 2007 through the fall of 2008, our economy had an appendix attack, and Congress issued potent addictive painkillers instead of fixing our problems.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

ECRI Stock-Market Prophet Calling for a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Barnes writes: The Economic Cycle Research Institute - referred to as the "ECRI" by anyone in the know on Wall Street - has correctly called every U.S. recession during the last 45 years.

To work its magic, theECRI charts the weekly changes in an index ofLeading Economic Indicators (WLI). Market professionals like myself very quietly use the same group of indicators to call market tops and bottoms. The indicators are so accurate in terms of what they have to say about the future that I refer to ECRI and the WLI as "The Prophet."

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets, Will it be Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George.

Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. And when you look at today’s ISM number, look past the headline number, which is just fine, and look at the weakness in the leading indicators. New orders declined by 5 points to 53.5, its lowest level since June 2009. Also, imports slowed noticeably, which is a bad omen for domestic demand. Overall, the ISM index suggests that real GDP and factory output slowed early this quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

U.S. Economic Recovery Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke thinks consumers are going to sustain the economy, but small businesses, the lifeblood of the economy sure disagree. Please consider Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index Hits New Low in July

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Economics

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Debunking the Mainstream Economists Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBIG PICTURE – Many prominent economists define deflation as a decline in the general price level within an economy.  To make matters worse, these academics use the establishment’s highly manipulated inflation data as their yardstick.  Therefore, when the heavily massaged Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) show a moderate increase, these folks celebrate the ‘perfect scenario’ of moderate inflation and when the CPI and PPI contract, they worry about deflation.  Unfortunately, the vast majority of people blindly follow the views of the mainstream economists.  Consequently, they end up making costly mistakes with their capital. 

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Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

Naked Capitalism Temporary Insanity Defending Unions, Blog Wars? / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI remain in awe of how people who can think clearly most of the time, occasionally stray off the deep end defending socialist idiocy. This is one of those times.

For some inexplicable reason Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has chosen to re-post Summer Rerun: Debunking the Notion that Unions Hurt Productivity

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Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Report Points Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe July ISM manufacturing composite index slipped 0.7 points to a level of 55.5. This marks the third consecutive decline in this index (see Chart 1). Although the supplier deliveries and employment indexes increased marginally (by 1.0 and 0.8 points, respectively), the July composite index would have declined by significantly more if it had not been for the 4.4 point increase in the inventories index.

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Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

Nonsense on the Federal Budget Deficit Question / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a recent piece I reported the shocking ignorance in a Huffington Post article on the alleged harmlessness of the federal deficit. Several readers wrote to tell me that as bad as the HuffPo article was, James Galbraith's interview with Ezra Klein was even worse.

They were right. In today's piece I'll walk through some of Galbraith's biggest whoppers.

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Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

China Leapfrogs Japan To Become World’s No. 2 Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: As the old Avis rental car slogan used to say: "When you're No. 2, you try harder."

With the growth rates that its economy has turned in the past few years, no economist could ever accuse China's leader of not trying hard. China now claims to have jumped over Japan to take over the No. 2 spot in the world economic pecking order.

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Economics

Monday, August 02, 2010

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030 / Economics / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst Britain is rarely if ever at the top of the various quality of life statistics such as economic growth, average earnings, disposable incomes, living space, healthcare services, pensions, personal freedoms and education. However when taken as a whole package, Britain remains one of the worlds most civilised countries that acts as a beacon that continues to attract peoples form all over the developing and developed world, which continues to push the UK population ever higher despite many Western European countries experiencing population stagnation or even falling populations such as Germany, where in fact 1/3rd of the annual rise in Europe's population as a whole takes place in Britain.

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Economics

Sunday, August 01, 2010

U.S. Outbound Travel Expenditure Says No Double Dip Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen inflation (or deflation) are so low that measurement errors can be bigger than “The Answer”, and when an economy is in the process of re-adjusting and so “measurement” of GDP itself is also and issue – witness the size of the revisions; and when traditional “markers” of drivers of economic activity are reacting in a “non-traditional way”, it can be hard to figure what’s going to happen next.

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Economics

Sunday, August 01, 2010

Austrian Money Supply Metrics, Now Global / Economics / Money Supply

By: Michael_Pollaro

On April 19th, 2010,  I penned an essay called Money supply metrics, the Austrian take in which I presented the logic behind what I believe to be the correct formulation of the money supply, one based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics.

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Economics

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Are We Out of the Recession Yet? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAre We There Yet?
Driving with No Spare
A Muddle Through Economy
Absent a Policy Mistake

"... [this economic condition] has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things."
- Friedrich August von Hayek, Nobel Speech 2010 1974

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Economics

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Nielson: The End Game is Either Hyperinflation or Debt Implosion – Got Gold? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“The collapse of the U.S. economy is a certainty - only the manner in which it will happen has yet to be determined. It is just a matter of time before the global derivatives bubble will produce the same result that has occurred to every other currency not backed by gold throughout history - those currencies, our ‘money’, will become worthless.”

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Economics

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Federal Government's Trillion Dollar Deficits Crowding Out Our Future Wealth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe standard justification for the Federal government's trillion-dollar-plus deficits for the next decade is this: "Without this stimulus, the economy will fall into another Great Depression." This is the Keynesian Party Line, all over the West. It is promoted by almost everyone. Even normally free market economists have gotten on board.

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