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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Deflation becomes the Dominant Economic Trend / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in.

Can we reasonably expect a return of inflation in the foreseeable future? The Kress Cycles say “No!” and tell us to expect just the opposite, namely a deflationary trend. This has certainly been the dominant economic trend since the credit crisis of 2008 and, in some areas, even before then.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy

By: Adam_Lass

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."

I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.

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Economics

Sunday, July 11, 2010

It’s “Chapter 66” as U.S. States Face De Facto Bankruptcy / Economics / US Debt

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA number of U.S. states are facing bankruptcy – in fact if not in name – with Illinois and California leading the way.

When an individual goes bankrupt in the United States, it’s usually a Chapter 7. When a business goes under, it’s Chapter 11. Farmers have a Chapter 12, and there is a more complex individual option known as Chapter 13.

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Economics

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Economic Austerity or Stimulus Without Significant Reform Is Madness / Economics / Market Regulation

By: Jesse

The economy will not 'cure itself' through benign neglect and liquidationism, because it did not get this way by itself. It did not suffer an accident, or an act of God. This is an unfortunate application of the principle of human healing after an injury to the economy.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions

Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy

By: EconGrapher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Did Retail Sales Rise or Did Tax Rates Go Up? / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn response to Following Yesterday's Hype of Fastest Growth in 4 Years, June Retail Sales a "Mixed Bag" a couple of people challenged me on retail sales figures, notably a statement that state sales tax collections were still down.

Let's take a quick look at data from a few key states followed by a closer look under the hood as to what is really happening and why.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Economic Downward Deflationary Spiral: The Next Big Wave of Deflation is Upon Us / Economics / Deflation

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael Schmidt writes: It looks like the next big wave of deflation is upon us. Looking at some key fundamentals, we see the labor market is again shredding jobs (652,000 in June), the money supply is contracting at levels not seen since the Great Depression and the US Federal Governments finances are in complete disaster.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Britain’s Austerity Budget: A Declaration of Class War? / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHugo Radice writes: The June Budget - Following the inconclusive outcome of the British general election on May 6th, the ‘centrist’ Liberal Democratic Party decided to turn sharply to the right by agreeing to join the Tories in a coalition government. In the run-up to the election, the Tories had argued strongly that Britain faced the prospect of a fiscal crisis unless the government's deficit was brought down further and faster than the outgoing Labour government intended (see The Bullet no.350).

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

The Global Double-Dip Recession: Which Markets to Hold… And Which Ones May Fold / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Last week's stock-market meltdown was a worldwide affair, and was touched off by trader fears of a global "double-dip" recession.

However, the truth is that the odds of a recessionary reprise are high in just a few countries - primarily those that have experienced excessive fiscal and monetary "stimulus," or that have real inflation problems.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Consumption Inflection Point, No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumer credit has fallen an unprecedented 7 consecutive quarters. Moreover, credit is poised to plunge further as consumer spending plans are falling through the floor.

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

In the Shadow of the Dragon / Economics / China Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Downs writes: Although China is not the biggest economy in the world by GDP, (it is third, after growing a remarkable 8.7 percent last year), its exports are increasingly seen as the needed lifeline for many shaky economies. But as China plots its future as the world's largest exporter, it must be of some concern to them that their top two clients (the US and EU) are broke. As a result, China knows that it will have to look beyond developed markets for continued growth.

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