Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
U.S. Real GDP in the Economic Current Recovery, How Does it Compare? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The current economic recovery is eight quarters old. The first estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter will be published on July 29. Chart 1 is an index chart where real GDP data are set equal to 100 at the trough of each recession and real GDP for subsequent quarters are computed accordingly to enable comparisons of real GDP growth across recoveries. For example, a reading of 104 would mean that real GDP increased 4.0% from the trough. In 2011:Q1, the seventh quarter of economic recovery, real GDP rose 4.95% from the trough of the current recovery. At a similar stage of economic recovery after the 2001 recession, real GDP recorded a 4.88% gain.
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Friday, July 22, 2011
Who's Afraid of Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: Philipp_Bagus
When it comes to deflation, even Austrian economists disagree. In contrast to those who favor a 100 percent–reserve system and the effect such a system would have on prices, Austrian defenders of a fractional-reserve, free-banking (FRFB) system still seem to harbor a fear of price deflation.[1] Examples of this group include Steven Horwitz, George Selgin, and Lawrence H. White, who support a banking system or monetary policy that stabilizes nominal income (MV).[2] Broadly speaking, they favor an increase in the money supply if the demand to hold money (i.e., hoarding) increases. Without a corresponding increase in the money supply, an increase in the demand to hold money would cause a general fall in prices (i.e., price deflation).
Friday, July 22, 2011
The Never-Ending Economic Depression , Recovery Only If We Repudiate the Debt / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Washingtons_Blog
Economics Professor: "[We’ll Have] a Never-Ending Depression Unless We Repudiate the Debt, Which Never Should Have Been Extended In The First Place" Economists: The Economy Can Only Recover If We Repudiate the Debt
Leading Austrian-school economist Murray Rothbard - an American - wrote in 1992:
Read full article... Read full article...I propose ... out-right debt repudiation. Consider this question: why should the poor, battered citizens of Russia or Poland or the other ex-Communist countries be bound by the debts contracted by their former Communist masters? In the Communist situation, the injustice is clear: that citizens struggling for freedom and for a free-market economy should be taxed to pay for debts contracted by the monstrous former ruling class. But this injustice only differs by degree from "normal" public debt. For, conversely, why should the Communist government of the Soviet Union have been bound by debts contracted by the Czarist government they hated and overthrew? And why should we, struggling American citizens of today, be bound by debts created by a ... ruling elite who contracted these debts at our expense?
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Continued Sluggish U.S. Economic Growth Expected Through 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
With this commentary, we unveil our first formal forecast of U.S. economic activity and interest rates for 2012. The forecast for real GDP growth is only marginally better in 2012 vs. the forecast for 2011 - on a Q4/Q4 basis, 2.45% in 2012 vs. 2.20% in 2011. We do expect some forward momentum to build in the second half of 2012 with respect to real GDP growth and for this momentum to intensify in 2013. The reason for this building momentum is an expectation of a resumption of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) early in 2012 and/or a pick-up in bank credit creation. Because our forecast is for below-potential real economic growth, our view is that the unemployment rate will creep up from its Q2:2011 average of 9.1%, peaking at 9.5% in Q3:2012. It will not be until 2013, that any sustained meaningful decline in the unemployment rate sets in.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Society Lacks Purchasing Power, Robots Don’t Buy Cars / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Christopher_Quigley
Our world lurches from financial crisis to financial crisis yet very few academics, reporters or commentators point out the fatal flaw in current orthodox economic theory which is the central force behind these crises. The flaw relates to the general LACK OF PURCHASING POWER in contemporary society. This weakness in classical economic theory is not new and many scholars have explained the problem however, increasingly, the issue is being conditioned out of people’s consciousness. The collapse of the international banking system, as a result of the Sub-Prime; “Originate to Distribute” catastrophe, has brought this Achilles heel of Keynesian economics into sharp focus.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
U.S. Economic Policy Failures, Federal Debt Bomb End Game / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Long-time readers are familiar with the wisdom of Lacy Hunt. He is a regular feature of Outside the Box. He writes a quarterly piece for Hoisington Asset Management in Austin, and this is one of his better ones. Read it twice.
"While the massive budget deficits and the buildup of federal debt, if not addressed, may someday result in a substantial increase in interest rates, that day is not at hand. The U.S. economy is too fragile to sustain higher interest rates except for interim, transitory periods that have been recurring in recent years. As it stands, deflation is our largest concern ..."
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Does It Make Economic Sense to Strive for a Balanced Federal Budget? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When business make capital expenditures in order to enhance future profitability, do they typically fund all of these capital expenditures out of current income? No.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 18, 2011
The Critical Flaw in Keynes's Economic System / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
As part of my Mises Academy class Keynes, Krugman, and the Crisis, I have reread large portions of The General Theory. In his masterpiece, Keynes erects an impressive framework on one crucial assumption: left to its own devices, the free market can get stuck in an equilibrium with very high unemployment.
Although Keynes's whole edifice and critique of the "classical economists" rests on this belief, he devotes surprisingly little time to supporting it. In the present article I'll point out the weakness in his view. If it turns out that the free market does naturally move toward full employment in the labor market, then the entire Keynesian "general theory" falls apart.
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Monday, July 18, 2011
Why Banks Aren’t Lending: The Silent Liquidity Squeeze / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Ellen_Brown
Why aren’t banks lending to local businesses? The Fed’s decision to pay interest on $1.6 trillion in “excess” reserves is a chief suspect.
Where did all the jobs go? Small and medium-sized businesses are the major source of new job creation, and they are not hiring. Startup businesses, which contribute a fifth of the nation’s new jobs, often can’t even get off the ground. Why?
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Sunday, July 17, 2011
Who Benefits from the Greek Bailout? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
Continuing From Part 1 (The Great Global Debt Depression: It's All Greek To Me) - Greece has a total debt of roughly 330 billion euros (or U.S. $473 billion).[60] In the lead-up to the Greek bailout orchestrated by the IMF and European Union in 2010, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released information regarding who exactly was in need of a bailout. With the bailout largely organized by France and Germany (as the dominant EU powers), who would be providing the majority of funds for the bailout itself (subsequently charged to their taxpayers), the BIS revealed that German and French banks carry a combined exposure of $119 billion to Greek borrowers specifically, and more than $900 billion to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland combined.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
The Great Global Debt Depression: It's All Greek To Me / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
In late June of 2011, the Greek government passed another round of austerity measures, ostensibly aimed at getting Greece “back on track” to economic progress, but in reality, implementing a systematic program of ‘social genocide’ in the name of servicing an endless and illegitimate debt to foreign banks. Right on cue, protests and riots broke out in Athens against the draconian measures, and the state moved in to do what states do best: oppress the people with riot police, tear gas and bashing batons, leaving roughly 300 people injured.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
U.S. Economy Inflation R.I.P. Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: EconMatters
Despite a big 4.4% drop off from energy prices in June following a 1.0% fall in May, the latest BLS data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was still up 3.6% year-over-year.
The core CPI (less food and energy), an inflation gauge watched closely by the Federal Reserve, also increased 1.6% year-over-year, and has been steadily rising and most of the increase has come within the past six months. (See Charts Below)
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Sunday, July 17, 2011
Back to Economic Basics GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
This week we are going to revisit some themes concerning the problems of the debt and the deficit. I am getting a number of questions, so while long-time readers may have read most of this in one letter or another, it is clearly time for a review, especially given the deficit/debt-ceiling debate. I will probably offend some cherished beliefs of most readers, but that is the nature of the times we live in. It is the time of the Endgame, where things are not as black and white as they have been in the past.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Factory Production Decelerating Even After Excluding Autos / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Industrial production moved up 0.1% in June, following two consecutive monthly declines. Supply chain problems from the Japanese natural disaster led to a decline in auto production in each of the three months of the second quarter. Production at the nation's utilities rose 0.9% in June following a 2.0% drop in May.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
U.S. CPI Inflation - Lower Energy Prices Account for Decline / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% in June vs. a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The 6.8% drop of the gasoline price index accounted for a large part of the decline in the headline number. The food price index moved up 0.2% in June, the smallest increase for the year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in June, matching the gain posted in May.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Social Security's Impact on the Federal Budget Deficit / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For a number of years, net contributions to Social Security exceeded benefit payments. These surpluses were transferred to the Treasury's general fund in exchange for an IOU from the Treasury to be called at a time when the net contributions to Social Security became less than the benefit payments. That time arrived in 2009 when net contributions were $8.2 billion less than benefit payments.
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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Growth in Net Federal Outlays / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays in June 2011 was up 3.28% from the 12-month cumulative total in June 2010. From December 1955 through June 2011, the median change in the 12-month cumulative total of net federal outlays from year-ago month has been 6.64%.
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Friday, July 15, 2011
U.S. Q2 Retail Sales Suggest Mild Gain in Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% during June after a revised 0.1% drop in May. The tally of retail sales for the second quarter shows a significant deceleration in the second quarter (+4.4%) after a 10.5% annualized gain in the first quarter, which partly reflects the vast swings of gasoline prices. Auto sales advanced 0.8% in June according to today's retail sales report, which is different from the unit sales data for June (11.5 million units vs. 11.8 million units in May).
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Friday, July 15, 2011
Economic Stimulus Shock: Unemployment “Boost” Ending / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Economics has been declared the “dismal science,” one in which there are very few opportunities to test the real world outcome of varying decisions made at a high level. Today, the study of economics may be dismal for other reasons: the boost from unemployment benefits and other stimulus programs will soon run out.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Greater Economic Depression Is Upon Us / Economics / Great Depression II
By: David_Galland
The phrase “Greater Depression” was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.
Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, I’ve long acted as something of a devil’s advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.
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