Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 04, 2011
Small Business and the Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Fred_Buzzeo
If we listen to most economists, we are told that the recession is over and we are in a period of recovery. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official voice on this matter, tells us that the recovery began in June 2009.
Fortunately, most Americans focused on making a living see right through this illusion. For example, a recent New York Times/CBS poll indicates that Americans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the US economy. An astonishing 70 percent of respondents said that the country is moving in the wrong direction.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
U.S. Economy Half Year Review, We Should Be OK, Except... / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
The U.S. Economy Remains Mired In A Long-term Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
"We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." John Maynard Keynes
Black Tuesday. On October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed triggering the worst economic collapse in history, the Great Depression. Thousands of banks and businesses failed, shanty towns sprung up across the country, and 15 million Americans (25% of the workforce) lost their jobs. President Herbert Hoover, who believed the turmoil would be over in a matter of weeks, opposed providing aid to the needy and unemployed. He supported the same policies as his GOP heirs in Congress today who seek to deepen the present crisis by cutting unemployment benefits, slashing fiscal stimulus and balancing the budget on the backs of workers.
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Friday, July 01, 2011
United States: Initial Jobless Claims Stuck at an Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 428,000 during the week ended June 25. The four-week moving average has held around 426,000 since the week ended May 26. Essentially, firms have been unwilling to increase their payrolls. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 12,000 to 3.702 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims has held almost steady since April 2011 (see Chart 1).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 01, 2011
The Great Misdiagnosis of the U.S. Economy, Problem is Insolvency Not Liquidity / Economics / US Debt
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Imagine a doctor who administers an elaborate treatment for a man suffering from multiple broken bones, joint arthritis, and fallen foot arches. The quack doctor orders massive amounts of liquids as though he has a horrible case of dehydration. The inept doctor also permits unlimited freedom of movement around the hospital and its grounds to the patient, as part of the blunt treatment. The man still cannot walk right or breathe normally, has trouble lifting any significant weight with the arms, and stumbles around from shaky legs. But he has plenty of fluids and freedom to roam, urinating like a race horse. With the heavy mistreatment that is badly off the mark, he has a new problem, diarrhea and bloat together. His doctor is an idiot, incompetent, but still given respect.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month. The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June. The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Economy and the Education Gap / Economics / Education
By: Fred_Sheehan
On June 22, 2011, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded a two-day meeting. This was followed by the obligatory press release. That statement was followed by a press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. CNBC, in the person of Maria Baritomo, interviewed three former FOMC members later in the day:
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
3-D Economic Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics Heading for All Developed Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics,and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan. Wins all sorts of awards and has won the Rising Star of HedgeFunds award. In short, he is really smart.
He sent me this piece last week, and I asked if I could use it. He graciously acceded. It is on what Jason and Rob call "the3-D Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics."
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month. Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November. Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2).
Monday, June 27, 2011
Can the Fed and Economists Forecast the Future? / Economics / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: EWI
Business Talk Radio host Gabriel Wisdom recently spoke with Pete Kendall, Co-Editor of EWI's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Their discussion included a crucial but rarely asked question about economists and the Federal Reserve. Here's the relevant excerpt:
Monday, June 27, 2011
Inflation Asides / Economics / Inflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
A note from a reader: In 1977 I accidentally ran into a high school friend of mine who had taken an advanced degree in mathematics and statistical analysis. He was working for [Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur] Burn's Fed. He informed me that he was working on a new methodology of calculating the inflation rate. When I asked what it was based on he demurred saying it was "Classified Secret." I was truly stunned. He did imply that, when done, the new methodology would greatly reduce the reported value. Sure enough, during the Volcker Fed, the new methodology was introduced and has been modified since then to greatly reduce the reported numbers. It made the Volcker effort at controlling inflation seem much more effective than it actually was.
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Monday, June 27, 2011
Deflation by Dictatorship / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
There are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Chinese Economy Sputtering, Where Did the Trade Surplus Go? / Economics / China Economy
By: Washingtons_Blog
It was tempting to believe that China was different. With its command and control economy with some of the trappings of free market capitalism, trillions in reserves, and abundant natural resources, many thought that China would "decouple" from the Western world's problems and sail into a prosperous future. However, despite its long history, exotic names and seemingly strong position, China cannot avoid the rules of economics which have applied to all countries throughout history.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Greece Debt Crisis Long-term Solution E.U. Unification Under One Leader? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: James_Loong
As Papandreou, Greek PM, plans to put together another austerity package worth more than €6.5 billion ($9.3 billion) by the end of the month, the protesters outside the parliament building, unwilling to accept the prime minister’s course of action, shouted: “Thieves, traitors. What happened to our money?”
Friday, June 24, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims, Firms Remain Reluctant to Increase Payrolls / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 429,000 during the week ended June 18. The four-week moving average held steady at 426,250. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell slightly to 3.697 million from 3.698 million people. The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged down to 3.709 million from 3.714 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 24, 2011
U.S. Dollar Repatriation and Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Lewis
It’s starting to look like the corporate world will soon get another pass from Congress on paying its international tax bill. Last proposed and passed in 2005, a dollar repatriation holiday would allow companies to bring dollars on overseas back to the United States with only a 5.25% tax rate.
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Thursday, June 23, 2011
Stealth QE3 Comes to Fruition, Soaring Inflation is Next / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did what most everyone expected yesterday (Wednesday) at the culmination of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting - he left average Americans vulnerable to the pangs of higher prices and soaring inflation.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
U.S. Horrific National Debt, Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression? / Economics / US Debt
By: Chris_Kitze
Michael Synder writes: It really is hard to find the words to describe the true horror of the national debt. The U.S. government has been on the greatest debt binge in all of human history, and a day of reckoning is coming that is going to be so painful that it is going to shock America to the core. We have lived so far above our means for so long that none of us really has any concept of what "normal" is like anymore. The United States has enjoyed the greatest party in the history of the world, but now this decades-old party is ending and the bills are coming due. It was Dick Cheney who famously said that "deficits don't matter". Well, try telling that to the nation of Greece right about now. The horror that Greece is just beginning to experience is a preview of what is going to happen to us as well. Only when it happens to us it is going to be so much worse, because when we go down we are going to bring the entire global financial system down with us.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Europe and America and the The Global Debt Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: LEAP
On December 15, 2010, in the GEAB N°50, LEAP/E2020 anticipated the explosion of Western government debt (1) in the second half of 2011. We were then describing a process that would start with the European government debt crisis and then set fire to the heart of the global financial system, namely US federal debt (2). And here we are with this issue at the start of the second half of 2011, with a global economy in complete disarray (3), an increasingly unstable global monetary system (4) and financial centres in desperate straits (5), all this despite the thousands of billions of public money invested to avoid precisely this type of situation. The insolvency of the global financial system, and of the Western financial system in the first place, returns again to the front of the stage after just over a year of political cosmetics aimed at burying this fundamental problem under truckloads of cash.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Stocks, Demographics, Sovereign Debt and Global Food Prices Economic Report / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week's Outside the Box is from one of the more interesting thinkers and observers of the markets I know, Simon Hunt. When we get together in London, conversations are lively, as we don't always see eye to eye; but we can always discuss, in a very civil manner, the affairs of the world. This particular piece is wide-ranging and thought-provoking. Simon is always ready to apply actual times to his predictions, and he has held steady on them for years.