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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Huge Rise in U.S. Unemployment Expected After Mid-Term Elections / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEarlier this month Gallup released a survey that showed unemployment rose .8% to 10.1%

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

U.S. Debt and Deficits, Learning from Canada's Experience / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are those who say the US is doomed, that there is no way out from our problems with deficits, future entitlement promises, and a dysfunctional political system. And in my darker moments I worry that they are right.

I get the problems, probably more than most. But there is a way out. Hopefully, it does not entail collapse first, as some suggest. But it will require a lot of hard decisions. Some will be very hard.

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Economics

Monday, October 18, 2010

Financial Markets Expect QE2 to Result in Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation expectations, measured as the difference between nominal 10-year Treasury note yield and yield on the 10-year inflation protected security, has moved from a low of 1.49% on August 24, just prior to the August 27 Bernanke speech, to 2.09% as of October 15. The upward trend of inflation expectations is a vote of confidence about the success of QE2. Actual inflation, based on personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred measure, moved up 1.47% in August on a year-to-year basis (see chart 2).

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Economics

Monday, October 18, 2010

U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops; Where to From Here? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another sign of a weakening economy, Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in September

Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Factory production also decreased 0.2 percent, reflecting declines in consumer durable goods, like appliances and furniture.

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Economics

Monday, October 18, 2010

Putting Austrian Business-Cycle Theory to the Test / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

Paul Krugman is despairing of late, because a growing number of mainstream economists are adopting (versions of) Austrian business-cycle theory. The most recent convert is Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota.

Krugman uses the occasion to criticize what he derides as "the hangover theory" of economic slumps, in which high unemployment is necessary after an artificial boom. As happened with his earlier criticism of "the hangover theory," here too Krugman buttresses his Keynesian logic with a misguided appeal to the data.

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Economics

Monday, October 18, 2010

Cutting the Payroll Tax Will Kick-start the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Mike_Whitney

On Friday,  Fed chairman Ben Bernanke made the case for a second round of quantitative easing (QE) claiming that inflation is presently "too low" to achieve the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment.  By purchasing long-term Treasuries, Bernanke hopes to lower bond yields and force investors into riskier assets. That, in turn, will push stocks higher making investors feel wealthier and more apt to boost spending. (re: "trickle down") When investors increase spending, it reduces the slack in the economy and lowers unemployment. Thus, QE is intended to divert investment to where it is needed and to lift the economy out of the doldrums.

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Economics

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Quantitative Easing, Inflation, Hyperinflation and Global Deflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s great debate basically between the US and Europe is – should the Fed go full bore by implementing a second quantitative easing? In part it is a moot point, because they have been doing just that in the repo market for four months without letting anyone know what they were up too. Their mandate is to reduce inflation and create full employment. Real inflation is 7% and unemployment is 22-3/4%. The Fed for three years has concentrated on bailing out Wall Street, banking, insurance and transnational conglomerates. Little has been done to fulfill their mandated mission. The main recipients of their largess, of course, are the firms that actually own the privately owned Fed.

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Economics

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Currency Wars, The Cycle of Deflation and Misguided U.S. Economic Policy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

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Economics

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Reflation Trade Is Overdone, No Pickup in Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Bryan_Rich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn recent weeks, the dollar has been the centerpiece of speculation surrounding the outlook for global economies, rising protectionist threats and the resurgence of global asset prices. And it all derives from Fed policy.

Bernanke’s speech yesterday and the latest statement by the FOMC clearly confirm that the Fed is DEFINITELY prepared to roll out another wave of its “quantitative easing” program — expanding the money supply with the hope of stimulating demand … igniting inflationary pressures … and ultimately creating incentives for employers to hire and invest, and for consumers to borrow and spend.

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Economics

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Fed Chairman Bernanke Presents a Case for QE2, CPI Remains Subdued / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChairman Bernanke's remarks, Friday morning, have confirmed expectations that a second round of quantitative easing (QE) will be put in place on November 3. 

     "Given the Committee's objectives, there would appear--all else being equal--to be a case for further action."

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Economics

Friday, October 15, 2010

Widening U.S. Trade Deficit Will Trim Q3 Real GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August, reflecting a small increase in exports and a large jump of imports. The July-August data suggest that the trade deficit will trim the headline real GDP reading in the third quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Nobel Committee in Search of Economists / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis year's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics goes to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides, for their work on "search theory," especially as applied to labor markets. In the present article I'll explain the basics of their contribution but then point out the crisis in mainstream economics: even though these economists — especially Diamond — are very smart and productive, they and their colleagues have hardly helped the plight of the unemployed, as we stumble ever deeper into depression.

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Economics

Thursday, October 14, 2010

China Casts Shadow Over Asia, Flawed Conventional Wisdom on the Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe summer is over in Denver. Of course, in Denver the summer was officially over Labor Day weekend, when the outdoor swimming pools were drained and locked for the winter. For most people summer ended a few weeks later, when the leaves turned bright yellow. But not me, I wanted to hang on to this summer for as long as I could; I really did not want it to go. But my illusions were finally shattered a few days ago by rain, chilly winds, and almost-bare trees. My deliberate (though mostly harmless) failure to recognize the obvious is similar to an investor hanging on to the illusion that Quantitative Easing, the Sequel will change the fundamentals of the economy. It won’t, it will just entrap us in more debt and low interest rates. But that is a subject for a different time.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Nobel Award in Darwin Economics, Nominee for 2010 / Economics / Elliott Wave Theory

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNamed in honor of Charles Darwin, the Darwin Awards commemorate those who improve our gene pool by accidentally removing themselves from it. I therefore propose the ‘Nobel Award in Darwin Economics’. The recipient of the award would graciously be asked to remove (just) their ‘economic genes’ from our economic gene pool. If they teach economics, they’d be asked to cease and desist, if they were the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, or the President of the United States they’d be asked to resign.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Job Creation and Green Energy Sector / Economics / Energy Resources

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEven though unemployment claims drop, while job openings rise in September, the U.S. economy still shed 95,000 jobs in September with steep losses in government employment offsetting moderate rise in private sectors, based on the latest Labor Department reports.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Bank of England Prepares to Print Money Despite High Inflation at CPI 3.1% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Inflation for September 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 10 months of worthless mantra from the BoE Governor that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall back to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.7% from 4.6% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and Government spending is cut.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Fed Deflation Concerns Trump Inflation Worries / Economics / Deflation

By: Bob_Browne

Sluggish job data released in the United States last week will once again highlight the U.S. Federal Reserve’s primary policy concern: an economic retreat back into a recession followed by years of deflation. We have never been in the double-dip camp, but we have no doubt about the Fed’s priorities, and neither does the global investment community. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, made it clear that the near-term risk of deflation trumped any long-term concerns about inflation. In fact, the market is now reasonably assuming the Fed is once again committed to asset inflation as a way to re-energize the real economy. The result has been a scramble for risky assets, and “The Bernanke Put” is already joining the popular market lexicon.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Krugman is a Smart Fellow but Obsessed with Government Spending / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMurray Sabrin writes: Paul Krugman wears many hats — Princeton University professor, New York Times columnist, Nobel Laureate in Economics (2008), prolific author of scholarly books and journal articles, and now president of the Eastern Economic Association. The EEA is a regional scholarly group that publishes a journal and holds an annual academic conference in New York City every other year. The EEA is housed in the Anisfield School of Business, at Ramapo College, where I have taught Corporate Finance, and Financial Markets and Institutions for the past 25 years.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

The U.S. Fed Wants an Inflation Boom / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs long time readers know, I am a big fan of Greg Weldon. This week he has very graciously allowed me to reproduce his client letter from last Thursday on some of the issues of Bernanke and Quantitative Easing 2. It prints a little longer than usual because of his format and all the charts, but this is one letter you should take the time to read.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Paul Krugman "I Told You So" Keynesian Stimulus Economic Nonsense / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs predicted on numerous occasions, Paul Krugman is once again pleading for still more Keynesian stimulus. Please consider Hey, Small Spender

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