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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Here We Go Again: U.S. Government Ramps Up Borrowing As Private Sector Slows / Economics / Government Spending

By: John_Rubino

This morning, US existing home sales plunged and the Chicago Fed’s national activity index turned negative. Both are obvious signs of a slowing economy.

Anticipating this kind of news, Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland in his most recent column analyzed the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Z.1 Report for signs of changing financial trends, and found something potentially serious. The following three charts tell the tale:

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Economics

Monday, March 21, 2016

Unemployment vs Inflation - May the Phillips Curve Rest in Peace / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Michael_Pento

In 1958, economist William Phillips claimed there was a historical inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the corresponding rate of inflation. His conclusion was that full employment (whatever that means) was inflationary. He illustrated his claim through a chart referred to as the Phillips Curve.

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Economics

Friday, March 18, 2016

The Profound Impact of E-commerce on International Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

When we consider the effect of e-commerce on the global economy, it is said to be one that is both far-reaching and very influential. E-commerce is a type of trade that has a significant and profound effect for businesses located all over the world, and is more powerful than many different traditional resources which the majority of global businesses have adopted over time. E-commerce has been able to successfully remove the global barriers between businesses and customers from differing countries, helping customers to easily locate and contact vendors with minimum hassle.

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Economics

Thursday, March 17, 2016

UK Economic Growth Evaporating, Worse to Come than OBR Budget 2016 Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The governments fantasy projections on the economy made by their Office for Economic Propaganda (OBR) shortly following the Conservatives May 2015 election victory are fast unraveling as the OBR's latest propaganda nudged expected growth for 2016 lower to 2% from 2.4%, and growth for 2017 lower to 2.2% from 2.5%, whilst maintaining more distant year overly optimistic forecasts.

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Economics

Thursday, March 17, 2016

UK Government Debt Propaganda Continues as OBR Revises Borrowing Higher / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Office of Budgetary Responsibility has once more dutifully pumped out economic propaganda for the UK government in its latest report, where the most notable revision was to increase the amount the government will borrow over its term in office from the original £115 billion (May 2015) to now £178bn, a 54% increase in the amount they said they would borrow at the outset, and which is set against their November 2015 revision higher to £143bn.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

The Fed Just Confirmed Inflation is Here / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

As we warned last week, the inflation genie is out of the bottle…

We now have confirmation that the Fed is aware of this…

Two key Federal Reserve officials said Monday they expect inflation to get closer to the central bank’s target…

Their comments came after data late last month that showed core inflation rose 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in January.

Source: CNBC

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Economics

Monday, March 14, 2016

U.S. Inflation Comeback: Did Inflation Ever Go Away? / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

This is a guest post by Joseph Y. Calhoun at Alhambra Investment Partners. His post starts off with this quote by Stanley Fischer, Fed Vice-Chair in a speech before the National Association for Business Economics.

Says Fischer "We may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate -- something that we would like to happen."

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Economics

Monday, March 14, 2016

President Obama is the One Peddling Fiction on State of US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

In his final State of the Union Address, President Obama chided, "Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction." Following the recently released February Non-farm Payroll Report, which showed a net increase of 242 thousand jobs, he doubled down on that same contention. The seemingly robust number of new jobs created prompted the President to remark, "The numbers and the facts don't lie, and I think it's useful given that there seems to be an alternative reality out there from some of the political folks that America is down in the dumps. It's not. America is pretty darn great right now."

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Economics

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

The Fed is About to Trigger Another Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

It’s literally 1937 all over again.

Many analysts have called for the Fed not to repeat its mistake of 1937.

That mistake?

Raising rates when the economy was already weak. Doing this prolonged the Great Depression.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

International Trade Sinks with the Baltic Dry Index / Economics / Global Economy

By: BATR

Economists and professional investors follow the Baltic Dry Index because it is a leading indicator on the forecast for international trade. A week ago this gauge hit an all time low. Since then a small upturn has moved the index upward slightly. Hellenic Shipping News observes in Baltic Dry Index climbs to 349, up 7.

“Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.”

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Economics

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

OECD Warns Leading Indicators Point to Slower Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Pitifully Late Recognition of the Obvious

It's been pretty clear that the global economy has been slowing for some time, but recognition of that fact has been pitifully slow.

In January, the Fed still believed it would get in four rate hikes this year. The IMF also held to its overoptimistic global growth estimates.

Amusingly, the Fed still believes recent weakness is "transitory", but the always late to the party IMF changed its tune today in the wake of miserable trade data from China.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

China And Fracking: The Pillars Of “The Recovery” Are Crumbling / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Rubino

When historians sort out this era of once-a-decade financial bubbles, they’ll marvel at how dissimilar the drivers of each boom were. The junk bonds of the 1980s were essentially leveraged tools for extracting wealth from companies. The dot-coms of the 1990s were vehicles for exotic new technologies and untested business models. The sub-prime mortgages and credit default swaps of the 2000s were semi-fraudulent fee-generation schemes.

All, in retrospect, were strange, unsteady foundations on which to build a global economy. But they look positively sane compared to the pillars of the current expansion: China and fracking.

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Economics

Monday, March 07, 2016

Free Trade Is the Path to Prosperity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Georgi Vuldzhev writes: The political circus of the 2016 presidential election has revived and reinvigorated popular belief in age-old protectionist fallacies. Currently both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, are both in favor of expanding protectionist trade policy, with both of them arguing that free trade “destroys” jobs and hurts domestic workers and producers by exposing them to foreign competition. Both candidates espouse an utterly misguided zero-sum view of economics, in which one side to an exchange wins only when the other side loses. Both men are, of course, completely wrong.

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Economics

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: A 5-Year Economic Plan And 50 Million Jobs Lost! / Economics / China Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

China never had an actual economic model or growth model. It simply printed an obscene amount of money, especially after 2008, and used it to build factories, 30-story see-through apartment blocks and highways into nowhere cities, without giving much if any thought to where this would lead when their formerly rich western customers had less to spend on its ever increasing amount of ever more useless products, or when its workers would stop spending ever more on apartments as investments, or when no more roads and bridges were needed because nowhere was already in plain sight. Or all of the above. It was ‘to infinity and beyond’ from the start, but that’s a line from a kids’ fantasy story, not a 5-year plan or an economic model.

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Economics

Friday, March 04, 2016

US Jobs Report 242,000 Jobs: 304,000 Were Part-Time; Average Weekly Earnings Sank / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Jobs came in well above expectations at 242,000 despite tax data collections that support a Job Growth estimate of 55,000 to 85,000 .

A quick dive into the details shows the report is a lot weaker than the headline number indicates. Of the 242,000 jobs added, 304,000 of them were part time. That means the economy actually shed 62,000 full-time jobs.

Average hours worked declined as did average weekly earnings despite minimum wage hikes in numerous states at the beginning of the year.

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Economics

Friday, March 04, 2016

Lies, Damn Lies, & BLS Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli

It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.

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Economics

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Stock Market Faulty Recession Barometer / Economics / Recession 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

A cacophony of recession chatter is filling the airwaves. Some experts are already declaring we are in one while others are raising warning flags. Their message has not been lost on the masses: Google searches for the word "recession" have risen to the highest level since 2012. Interestingly, many commentators cite the 20% decline in global stock prices as the warning signal, if not the cause. But veteran investor Joe McAlinden believes the U.S. economy will continue to expand in the year ahead.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

U.S. Demographics - The Affluent Market Is Fading FAST / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

About 30 years ago, I was able to predict the U.S. would see a major generational spending peak in 2007, all from my demographic indicator, the Generational Spending Wave.

On a 46-year lag from the time they were born, that’s when the peak number of baby boomers would peak in spending for the average household.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

New Delhi's Dream of Indian Economy Surpassing China / Economics / India

By: Sol_Palha

"Do not wait for ideal circumstances nor for the best opportunities; they will never come." ~ Anonymous

India has had many aspirations to overtake China, but this is more of a pipedream than reality. India's corruption makes China's corruption seem non-existent. Add in the traffic jams, and filth one has to deal with in parts of Mumbai and Delhi, and the allure of investing in India loses its appeal rather rapidly. This is the reason India continues to suffer such a massive amount of brain drain . Smart Indians understand that their best option is to seek greener pastures. Modi's government had the strongest mandate of any government, yet like all his predecessors he seems to be all talk and little to no action; he has failed to implement any noteworthy changes.

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Economics

Monday, February 29, 2016

China's Newest Export: Empty Buildings / Economics / China Economy

By: Michael_Pento

A little over six months ago the owners of the Baha Mar, a $3.5 billion Bahamian resort, filed for bankruptcy. Shoddy construction from the China State Construction Company led to delays resulting from leaking plumbing, porous Chinese concrete and large cracks at critical stress points. The doomed project even led to the death of two Chinese workers. Although the building is 97% complete, the structural deficiencies make it uninhabitable. Given the Chinese proclivity to build ghost towns, it makes you wonder if their construction crews are accustomed to erecting buildings that are never intended to be occupied.

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