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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, February 25, 2016

This is The Problem With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

If you join a poker game and can’t identify the “mark,” then chances are, you’re it! The “mark” is the person at the game who is less experienced, or perhaps is given to reckless betting. By including this player in the game, everyone else has an opportunity to walk away a winner.

But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Not everyone is a winner, and typically someone ends up the big loser!

The same principle works when countries get together for free or open trade. Everyone talks about how great it will be, how much their economies will grow, about efficiencies and new opportunities. But they almost never talk about the people who will lose.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Don't Expect Global Economy 'Crisis Response' from G-20 Meeting / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bloomberg

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sat down with Bloomberg's David Westin in Washington D.C. ahead of the G-20 meeting later this week in Shanghai, China.

When asked about a response from G-20 to global market turbulence, Lew said: "Don't expect a crisis response in a non-crisis environment. You know, it's not the job of finance ministers and central bank governors to accelerate a crisis. It's our job to try and avoid a crisis. If you're in a crisis, you do different things."

He added: "I don't think this is a moment in time when you're going to see individual countries make the kinds of specific commitments that have been made in some other contexts that have been marked by real crisis. This is not a moment of crisis. This is a moment where you've got real economies doing better than markets think, in some cases."

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Economics

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The Central Banks Are Pushing the World Towards Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Chris_Vermeulen

With the entire world struggling to ward off global deflation, it is prudent to understand why the current actions by the Central Banks are not heading in the correct direction. The massive amount of Quantitative Easing by the Central Banks, globally, have not been converted into inflation as was earlier anticipated. This article will shed light on various aspects leading to deflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Eurozone Economic Recovery is Over: Deflationary Pressures Intensify as Growth Slows / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Mike_Shedlock

ECB president Mario Draghi has his work cut out for him as deflationary pressure in Europe intensify. Average prices charged by companies for their goods and services fell at the steepest rate for a year as firms competed to boost sales.

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Economics

Monday, February 22, 2016

U.S. Inflation: Prepare for 4% or more! / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Last we visited on the subject of U.S. inflation (November, 2015) we wrote,

"Using those simplistic numbers suggests that U.S. inflation as measured by the [headline] CPI could rise to an annual rate of about 4% ..."

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Economics

Friday, February 19, 2016

These 3 Factors Make a U.S. Recession 2016 Highly Probable / Economics / Recession 2016

By: EWI

Dear Investor,

I'm sure you noticed that the markets went off the rails since the start of this year. During this decline, there has been one persistent question market pundits have been trying to answer:

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Economics

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Inflation Doesn't Come From Seasonally Adjusted Employment / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 151k, 000 net new jobs created in the month of January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. The continuing increase in new job creation and removal of slack in the labor market is causing the Phillips-curve-obsessed Fed to maintain a tightening stance on monetary policy.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Steve Hanke On Hyperinflation Hype / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The Great Recession of 2008-09 brought with it quantitative easing. This, in turn, spawned a cottage industry of books, articles and blog posts about hyperinflation. The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

One Chart Depicts Economic Recovery 100% Fiction / Economics / Unemployment

By: Sol_Palha

Anything I've ever done that ultimately was worthwhile... initially scared me to death.

Betty Bender

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this chart is probably worth a lot more.  It illustrates how the BLS has been lying through its teeth over the past seven years. Then again anyone with a grain of common sense could figure out that the retarded methodology the BLS employs is bound to create the illusion that all is well. They purposely discount individuals that have stopped looking for work in coming up with their unemployment numbers. Hence, the 5% figure is not an accurate reflection of the landscape. The chart below provides a more realistic view of the unemployed in the U.S and in some areas we believe that the numbers could be more than 30%

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Oil Price Collapse U.S. Recession Odds 2016 / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

David Rosenberg, chief economist at money-management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, went way out on a limb today.

Even though oil broke $30 to the downside again today, bond yields have crashed, and the price of many commodities is below the cost of production, Rosenberg made this statement today as quoted by the Wall Street Journal :

"I put the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year as close to zero as anything could be close to zero."

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Economics

Monday, February 08, 2016

Falling Oil Prices Not the Reason for U.S.’s Economic Woes / Economics / US Economy

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The dramatic fall in the global price of oil is being cited by the financial press, government officials, and academia as the catalyst for the recent abysmal U.S. economic data which shows that the economy is, in all likelihood, sliding into a recession or worse.

While falling oil prices sound like a plausible explanation for the abysmal financial numbers, anyone with a modicum of economic sense (which excludes much of the financial Establishment) can see that it is merely a smokescreen to obfuscate the real culprit.

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Economics

Friday, February 05, 2016

Illusory Economic Recovery Supported by Hot Money / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Sol_Palha

Is this economic recovery real? Well if you base your observations on how far the Dow has risen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and on the B.S statistics the BLS puts out, the answer would be a yes. However, if you do just a little cursory digging, you will spot that this economic recovery is nothing but a grand illusion. The following factors clearly prove that this recovery is not real.

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Economics

Friday, February 05, 2016

U.S. Recession 2016 has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Mike_Shedlock

Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.

It was another disastrous factory orders report this month.

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Economics

Thursday, February 04, 2016

South Africa Economy from Hero to Zero / Economics / Africa

By: AnyOption

On 19 November 2015, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hike interest rates by 25-basis points from 6% to 6.25%. The forecast for the next interest-rate meeting on 28 January 2016 was 25-basis points, for an overall interest rate of 6.5%. The SARB surprised everyone when it hiked interest rates by 0.5% to the prevailing interest rate of 6.75%. This bold initiative is one of the more drastic steps that can be taken by the authorities when currencies are depreciating rapidly. This is a way to arrest further declines in the value of the ZAR on the international stage.

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Economics

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession? / Economics / Currency War

By: Mike_Shedlock

I am entertaining the notion of a "Job Gain Recession".

A chart of year-over-year nonfarm employment shows that's nearly what happened in the 1970 and 1980 recessions.

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Economics

Thursday, February 04, 2016

TPP is Economic Warfare, Trade Can Make Everyone Worse Off / Governments are Stupid / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dylan_Waller

Professor Yoram Baumun’s comedic retake of the Principles of Economics appropriately translates “Trade can make everyone better off” to “Trade can make everyone worse off.” Moreover, he translates “Market are usually a good way to organize economic activity” to “Governments are Stupid”.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better / Economics / European Union

By: EWI

New interview with our European markets expert

Brian Whitmer, the editor of our monthly European Financial Forecast, explains what indicators helped him anticipate market volatility.

You'll also learn what he's expecting for the year ahead in European stocks.

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Economics

Friday, January 29, 2016

BEA Estimates U.S. Economy 4th Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.69% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first "Preliminary" estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.69% annualized rate, down -1.30% from the third quarter.

All of the key line items in this report showed meaningful deterioration relative to the third quarter. The reported growth in consumer spending was less than half of that recorded during the prior quarter. The growth in fixed investments nearly disappeared, as did growth in governmental spending. Exports continued to crater, showing outright contraction.

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Economics

Friday, January 29, 2016

Economic Headwinds: Big Players, Regime Uncertainty and the Misery Index / Economics / Global Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Before we delve into the economic prospects for 2016, let’s take a look at the economies in the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East/Africa to see how they fared in the 2014-15 period. A clear metric for doing this is the misery index. For any country, a misery index score is simply the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher misery index score reflects higher levels of “misery.”

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Economics

Thursday, January 28, 2016

How The Fed is Suffocating The U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

Investors are worried over the prospects that the long-term momentum behind the stock market recovery of 2009-2015 may be in danger of complete dissipation this year. That would mean a certain date with an extended bear market and, potentially, an economic recession perhaps sometime later this year.

Normally, within the context of an established bull market, worry would be a good thing given that the bull tends to proceed along a "wall of worry." In view of recent actions undertaken by central banks, however, those worries are legitimate as I'll explain in this commentary.

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