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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy

By: EconGrapher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Did Retail Sales Rise or Did Tax Rates Go Up? / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn response to Following Yesterday's Hype of Fastest Growth in 4 Years, June Retail Sales a "Mixed Bag" a couple of people challenged me on retail sales figures, notably a statement that state sales tax collections were still down.

Let's take a quick look at data from a few key states followed by a closer look under the hood as to what is really happening and why.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Economic Downward Deflationary Spiral: The Next Big Wave of Deflation is Upon Us / Economics / Deflation

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMichael Schmidt writes: It looks like the next big wave of deflation is upon us. Looking at some key fundamentals, we see the labor market is again shredding jobs (652,000 in June), the money supply is contracting at levels not seen since the Great Depression and the US Federal Governments finances are in complete disaster.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Britain’s Austerity Budget: A Declaration of Class War? / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHugo Radice writes: The June Budget - Following the inconclusive outcome of the British general election on May 6th, the ‘centrist’ Liberal Democratic Party decided to turn sharply to the right by agreeing to join the Tories in a coalition government. In the run-up to the election, the Tories had argued strongly that Britain faced the prospect of a fiscal crisis unless the government's deficit was brought down further and faster than the outgoing Labour government intended (see The Bullet no.350).

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

The Global Double-Dip Recession: Which Markets to Hold… And Which Ones May Fold / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Last week's stock-market meltdown was a worldwide affair, and was touched off by trader fears of a global "double-dip" recession.

However, the truth is that the odds of a recessionary reprise are high in just a few countries - primarily those that have experienced excessive fiscal and monetary "stimulus," or that have real inflation problems.

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Economics

Friday, July 09, 2010

Consumption Inflection Point, No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumer credit has fallen an unprecedented 7 consecutive quarters. Moreover, credit is poised to plunge further as consumer spending plans are falling through the floor.

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

In the Shadow of the Dragon / Economics / China Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Downs writes: Although China is not the biggest economy in the world by GDP, (it is third, after growing a remarkable 8.7 percent last year), its exports are increasingly seen as the needed lifeline for many shaky economies. But as China plots its future as the world's largest exporter, it must be of some concern to them that their top two clients (the US and EU) are broke. As a result, China knows that it will have to look beyond developed markets for continued growth.

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

The Real Housewives of Japan Shopping for Bargains Driving Deflation? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: KYOTO, Japan - Could 70,000 Japanese housewives tip this Asian giant into a deflationary spiral?

As farfetched as that sounds, it's become a major cause for concern in this nation of 128 million, which has been in an economic funk for two decades. These "real housewives" are part of a user-driven, social-networking site called Mainichi Tokubai, which delivers the best prices on specific grocery-store items to the fingertips of Tokyo-region consumers.

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Double-Dip Recessions, Economics and Ice Cream Cones / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past several weeks, you may have heard the back and forth debates regarding the possibility of a double-dip recession between the various media hacks and clowns they interview.

The overwhelming question has been, “Will the U.S. enter a double-dip recession?”

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Economics

Thursday, July 08, 2010

The ETA Economic Recovery, Depression Dead Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic experts have used letters like U, V, W, etc. when speaking about the current recession. The letters should represent graphically the course of the recession. The U-shaped recession stands for a fall, some time at the bottom, and a steady recovery. In case of a V-shaped recession, the economy bottoms out quickly and then recovers just as quickly. The concept of using letters is sometimes applied to stock-market bottoms.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Ten Economic Blunders from History / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn S. Chamberlain writes: Take cover when you hear a political leader talking about economic affairs. You can bet a bad decision is incoming. Luckily for the leaders, their meddling usually has a slow, erosive effect on the economy. Every so often, however, the great ones manage to land a real whopper that takes them down along with their whole country. Here are ten examples from history.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

The Myth of the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf there’s one thing everyone knows these days, whether they’re happy about  it or not, it’s that we live in a “global” economy.  This  fact is taken as so obvious that anyone who disputes it is regarded as not so much wrong as simply ignorant—not even worth arguing with.  So it may come as a shock to many that, in reality, the cliché that we live in a borderless global economy does not survive serious examination.  The key is to ignore the Thomas Friedmanesque rhetoric the media is flooded with and get down to some hard numbers.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Beyond Black Swans, De-Leveraging And Re-Leveraging / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe black swan is the foo bird of modern Keynesianism. It is a threat only because of central bank fiat money and commercial bank leverage.

In a recent report, "China: What Rhymes with 'Crash'?" I wrote this:

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Economics

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Devaluation Won't Work / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Signs of Cooling U.S. Economy in ISM and Jobs Data / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Debt Deflation, A Long Economic Winter Ahead / Economics / Deflation

By: Prof_Rodrigue_Trembl

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"A State divided into a small number of rich and a large number of poor will always develop a government manipulated by the rich to protect the amenities represented by their property.": Harold Laski (1893-1950), British political theorist, 1930

“Money becomes evil not when it is used to buy goods but when it is used to buy power... economic inequalities become evil when they are translated into political inequalities.” Samuel Huntington (1927-2008), political scientist

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Economics

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

More Red Flags for the U.S. Economy  / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBonds are signaling that the recovery is in trouble.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury (2.97 percent) has fallen to levels not seen since the peak of the crisis while the yield on the two-year note has dropped to historic lows. This is a sign of extreme pessimism. Investors are scared and moving into liquid assets. Their long-term expectations have grown dimmer while their confidence has begun to wane. Economist John Maynard Keynes examined  the issue of confidence in his masterpiece "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". He says:

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