Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 02, 2010
From Quantitative Easing To Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation
The United States economy grew at a sluggish annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported last Friday. On the bright side, the economy is growing faster than the 1.7 percent growth in the second quarter and has registered the fifth straight quarter of expansion.
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Tuesday, November 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Survey Shows Continuing Sluggish U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
The ISM composite index of the manufacturing sector rose to 56.9 in October, the highest since May 2010. The headline and details indicate that the factory sector is back on its feet after a sluggish performance in the third quarter. The index tracking new orders, a forward looking indicator, increased to 58.9 in October vs. 51.1 in the prior month.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Why China’s Economic Growth is More Bark Than Bite / Economics / China Economy
Carl Delfeld writes: Is the great Chinese locomotive destined to run off the rails?
It is, according to renowned short-seller, Jim Chanos.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Economic Recessions, Banking Reform, and the Future of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: It is a great honor for me to have been invited by the London School of Economics to deliver this Hayek Memorial Lecture. To begin, I would like to thank the school and especially Professor Timothy Besley for inviting me, Professor Philip Booth and the Institute of Economic Affairs for allowing me to also use this as an opportunity to introduce my most recent book, entitled Socialism, Economic Calculation, and Entrepreneurship, and finally Toby Baxendale for making this whole event possible.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
U.S. Quantitative Easing is Fracturing the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
Moreover, it may well be asked whether we can take it for granted that a return to freedom of exchanges is really a question of time. Even if the reply were in the affirmative, it is safe to assume that after a period of freedom the regime of control will be restored as a result of the next economic crisis. (Paul Einzig, Exchange Control (1934)).[1]
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Slow U.S. GDP Growth Sets Stage for Fed’s Next Round of Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Don Miller writes : The U.S. economy continued to struggle to grow in the third quarter, most likely giving government officials enough cover to pump more liquidity into the financial system to stimulate hiring.
Gross domestic product (GDP), the value of all goods and services produced, increased by 2% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting GDP to rise by 2.1% in the July to September period, The Wall Street Journal reported.
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Monday, November 01, 2010
Bernanke Torching the U.S. Economic Recovery with Quantitative Easing / Economics / Quantitative Easing
Investors Burned by Bernanke’s QE Demonstrations
While Chairman Bernanke has his theory on quantitative easing, we suspect QE will turn out more like this Turkish firefighter demonstrating fire safety (no one was hurt in this video). Instead of limiting losses to those that took risks, Bernanke’s first round of bailouts in 2008-9 spread the fire to all American taxpayers. Ben’s next demonstration of quantitative easing is likely to create uncertainty and chaos by torching the credit markets.
Monday, November 01, 2010
Deflation Is Not the Enemy, Bad Economics Is / Economics / Economic Theory
According to Alan Blinder "the present danger is not inflation but deflation". His pal Bernanke has driven the Fed's funds rate down to zero while giving the US economy an unprecedented increase in its monetary base. Not satisfied with that he is now apparently preparing an astonishing $2 trillion monetary expansion -- and Blinder worries about deflation!
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Sunday, October 31, 2010
U.S. GDP Report Heralds Still Higher US Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
The Commerce Department on Friday estimated that the US economy grew at an anemic annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter, a pace that all but ensures a further rise in unemployment.
The government claims that the recession ended in June of 2009, but the quarterly increases in the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year have been far below those recorded following previous major recessions. US GDP rose 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and then slowed to 1.7 percent in the second.
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Sunday, October 31, 2010
Bernanke gets his "pink slip" / Economics / US Economy
Question: What is the difference between a full-blown Depression and an excruciatingly "slow recovery"?
Answer--Inventories and a bit of fiscal stimulus.
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Sunday, October 31, 2010
U.S. GDP Growth is Softer than it Looks, Republican Majority Could Trigger Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
It's Softer Than It Looks
Not Finer for the "99er"
Be Careful What You Wish For
"People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them." - Jean Monnet, father of the European Union
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
China's Creative Accounting, Using Debt as an Instrument of Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy
China may be as heavily in debt as we are. It just has a different way of keeping its books -- which makes a high-profile political ad sponsored by Citizens Against Government Waste, a fiscally conservative think tank, particularly ironic. Set in a lecture hall in China in 2030, the controversial ad shows a Chinese professor lecturing on the fall of empires: Greece, Rome, Great Britain, the United States . . . .
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
Signs Hyperinflation Is Arriving / Economics / HyperInflation
Back in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value.
Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning.
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, But Momentum Not Enough to Lower Jobless Rate / Economics / Economic Recovery
Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, after a 1.7% increase in the second quarter. However, final sales advanced only 0.6% in the third quarter, following a mild 0.9% increase in the second quarter. As shown in chart 1, final sales show a decelerating trend after an increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
Double Dip Recession Delayed, Not Derailed / Economics / Double Dip Recession
The BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6.
How sustainable is that?
Friday, October 29, 2010
A Complexity Manifesto, Capitalists Continue to Increase Complexity Within Their Spheres of Production / Economics / Economic Theory
"Every limit appears as a barrier to be overcome" - Karl Marx (describing the world through a capitalist’s eyes)
There has been much debate since the global financial crisis of 2008 about what exactly happened and why. Some analysts believe that a period of deregulation in the financial sector, including the infamous repeal of Glass-Steagall (separating commercial and investment banking activities) [1], combined with reckless managerial decisions was the primary driver of a housing bubble, which led to a credit crunch and economic recession. Conservatives and libertarians tend to place the blame on government intervention in the housing and financial markets through Congressional legislation, such as the Community Reinvestment Act (putting pressure on banks to issue credit in low-income neighborhoods) [2], and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy (targeting low interest rates during the tech and housing bubbles) [3].
Friday, October 29, 2010
China's Massive Monetary Expansion and Crackup Boom / Economics / China Economy
China is pointing the finger at the US, complaining about "Out of Control" US dollar Printing by the Fed.
Read full article... Read full article...Dollar issuance by the United States is "out of control", leading to an inflation assault on China, the Chinese commerce minister said in comments reported on Tuesday.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Loss of Dollar Purchasing Power, The True Fed Inflation Targeting Bullseye / Economics / Inflation
When it comes time to put the current crop of economic blowhards and lunatics on trial for the disaster their insanely-bad advice caused, this quote from Frederic Mishkin, former Fed governor and who is directly responsible for the mess we are in, may come in handy.
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
U.S. Employment is Main Focus of Fed QE Policy / Economics / Employment
The Fed is widely expected to announce the details of the second round of QE (quantitative easing) following its 2-day meeting ending on November 3. There are more questions than answers about the nature of QE2 at the present time. Let's start with QE1 to put things in perspective; QE1 was in place from December 2008 to March 2010. The Fed purchased a sum of $1.725 trillion worth of agency bonds ($175 billion), mortgage-backed securities ($1.25 trillion) and Treasury securities ($300 billion). The outcome was a larger Fed balance sheet reaching $2.3 trillion as of March 2010 (see chart 1).
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
Paul Krugman Challenged to Debate on Keynesian vs Austrian Business Cycle Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
As many readers already know, last week I launched a campaign to pressure Paul Krugman into debating me. In just the first week, this sophomoric 7-minute YouTube video has generated $35,000 in pledges. At this point, I don't see how Krugman will ever live this down until he debates me on Austrian versus Keynesian business-cycle theory.
In the present article, I'll give a little background of how I came up with the idea. Then I'll point out the broader implications of this episode, which go well beyond my jousting with Krugman.
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