Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Inflation and Deflation, The Flations Moving Towards a Chaotic Conclusion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Fred_Sheehan
The incessant debate of whether the economy is inflating or deflating suffers from a vocabulary problem. This is as it must be since some (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke) discuss deflation as falling prices of stuff while others concentrate on the debt deflation of an overleveraged economy. The latter is what matters.
Friday, August 13, 2010
U.S. Economic Recovery, Only It Didn’t / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andy_Sutton
The powers that be are now starting to be shown what should be a very important lesson in the old saying: “You can fool all of the people some of the time and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”. For a year and a half now, starting at a rather well defined point in time during early March 2009, the govermedia switched gears and pronounced that the shattered American economy was in recovery.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Inflationary Economic Depression Forecast Revisited…We are Half-Way There / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
Going back a few years ago, I made a forecast that America would be heading toward an inflationary depression. I made that forecast during 2007 and early 2008 when the federal government's policies were very bad.
Today in 2010, the federal government has replaced the bad policies of a few years ago with much, much worse policies today. It is mind-boggling how bad these policies are and it is astonishing that most politicians and many economists don't see the obvious dangers.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Innovation, What Made America Great is Now Killing Her! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical" - What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate. Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to. This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America. Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is. It is called Creative Destruction.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Foreign Economic Growth Could Bail Out the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: During a period of increasingly worrisome headlines about the U.S. economy, there is one bright spot. The rest of the world appears to be doing much better than we are.
In the long run, that's good news for the United States. Rapid world growth will eventually rekindle the economic fires here, producing a growth that is more balanced than the bubbles of 1995-2008.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
The Real Reason for Bank of England's Worthless CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England released their latest quarterly inflation report this week that again sought to revise the forecast for UK inflation to converge towards 2% in 2 years time. However one major change accompanying the forecast was that the mantra of UK inflation being above the 2% target and the 3% upper limit as only temporary has now been dropped, this after repeatedly claiming month in month out for the past 7 months that Inflation would magically fall that the academic economists and mainstream press had swallowed up until quite recently.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Countdown to Economic Collapse, The Recovery is Not Recovering / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Danny_Schechter
Financial journalist, Charles Gasparino whose career trajectory took him from Newsweek to CNBC to Fox News was on with Bill O’ Reilly doing what the host of that factless Factor likes to do the most: promoting Fox News. In the course of their self-promotional banter, Gasparino let sip an unverifiable story about a meeting of top CEOs speculating about whether President Obama really is a secret Socialist.
Friday, August 13, 2010
U.S. Economic Depression, Just How Bad Will It Get? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Graham_Summers
For months now I have averred that the US economy was not in recovery and that in point of fact all talk of “recovery” was a load of BS.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least temporarily.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
How To Get Hyper-Inflation and Wing-Wham Un-Fund Liabilities …and Not Spill Your Drink / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Andrew_Butter
I refer to the esteemed social and economic commentator P.J. O’Rourke’s learned treatise on, “How to drive Fast on Drugs While Having Your Wing-Wham Squeezed, and not Spill Your Drink”.
Substitute “create inflation” with “driving fast on drugs” and the delights of having your Wing-Wham squeezed with creating a pile of unfunded liabilities to be paid-off by a child you don’t acknowledge or aim to take care of, one fine-day, in the future.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Is Deflation Really Bad for the Economy? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
On Friday, July 30, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president, James Bullard, speaking on CNBC television, said that the Fed must weigh medium-term inflation risks against near-term deflation risks. For most economists and commentators, a general fall in prices, which they label deflation, is a terrible thing. They hold that a fall in prices generates expectations for a further decline in prices. As a result of this, consumers postpone their buying of goods at present because they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future. Consequently, this weakens the overall flow of spending, and that in turn weakens the economy.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
The Illusion of Economic Recovery, The Fed Creates Money Out of Thin Air / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
Well, it's just the same old, same old, business as usual in America. The Fed creates money out of thin air, uses it to keep the economy from teetering over the edge of destruction as ludicrous salaries and bonuses are collected by Wall Street Illuminists and as US consumers are deceptively informed that we have green shoots sprouting up and that recovery is just around the corner. So go out and borrow, borrow, borrow, and spend, spend, spend, so US Illuminist transnational conglomerates can continue to generate their off-shore, untaxed profits to pay Illuminist salaries and bonuses for their henchmen in Corporate America. Then you have the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka the Plunge Protection Team, aka the PPT for short), rigging markets around the world 24/7 with the money created out of thin air by the Fed via the repo pool.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Jobs and Income, the Only Things That Matter… And No One Talks About / Economics / US Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Today, most pundits are growing increasingly concerned that we are headed for a “double dip” recession. I think this view is idiotic as the US “recovery” was in fact nothing more than a small bounce in economy activity within the context of a DEPRESSION.
Regardless, the stooges are out again in full force proclaiming that the US economy is in trouble again (duh), that the Stimulus high is wearing off (duh again) and that the only solution is to issue more Stimulus and money printing to stop another economic contraction (WHAT!?!).
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Runaway Out of Control U.S. Federal Government Spending? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The U.S. Treasury released its budget status for July. As Chart 1 shows, the cumulative deficit in the 12 months ended July was $1.318 trillion - the lowest since June 2009's $1.255 trillion. So far, the largest 12-month cumulative deficit reading has been $1.477 trillion in the 12 months ended February 2010.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Major leading Economic Indicator in Free Fall! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
In my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.
Back then, the index’s growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And as you can see in the chart below, it is continuing to freefall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30 …
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bullish Outlook for European Economies, U.S. QE2 Problems / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve Vannelli analyzes the latest speculation about the Fed and quantitative easing. All those calling for QE2 may not actually do what they think it will. His conclusion?
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
The Economic Stimulus is Dead - Long Live the Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Adam_Lass
A trillion dollars still hasn't fixed the jobs problem. Washington's solution: change the name to "deflation fighting" and print even more!
How do you know when an idea has failed?
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Why U.S. Jobs Have Gone AWOL / Economics / Employment
By: Michael_Pento
There are three primary reasons why the US is suffering from structurally high unemployment: a pervasively irresponsible monetary policy, the continued attenuation of our manufacturing base, and an overleveraged consumer who must now reconcile his balance sheet. In reality, the latter two conditions are a direct result of the first. They are the result of a government that seeks to micromanage the cost of money and the rate of economic growth.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Economic Uncertainties No Longer! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke can move on from his warning of a couple of months ago that there are “unusual uncertainties” in the economy. There may still be uncertainties in the stock market, but no longer in the economy! It is almost surely headed into a recessionary period again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end? / Economics / US Economy
By: Matthew_Ehrlich
Living in Asia for most of the past ten years and having spent another twenty traveling between Wall Street and Asia, I am constantly being asked if the US economic downturn is finally over and if not, when it will end. Not an easy question and if you are going to even attempt to understand my answer, you have to look at some of the MECHANICS of how it started, how it grew, how we got to where we are now and the possible paths to bring about an end.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Deflation Bogey / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
The Paul Reveres of the economics profession are riding their horses, warning Americans, "Deflation is coming! Deflation is coming!" From Paul Krugman to Joseph Gagnon to the various mainstream news publications, the message is the same — the government needs to induce inflation now, or else the economy will sink further into the Slew of Despond and unemployment will increase.