Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
UK Inflation Falls to CPI 3.2%, Precisely inline with 2010 Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for June 2010 registered a small drop from 3.4% to 3.2%, though remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%, thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write yet another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
How to Fix the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
There are remedies for recession, and the remedies are well known. But fixing the economy requires special medicine, fiscal stimulus, and if the patient does not take the medicine, he will not improve. It's not enough to have the medicine sitting on one's nightstand. It must be ingested before recovery can begin.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Recession, Deflation and Deficits Economic Outlook 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.
Monday, July 12, 2010
U.S. Economy Dancing On Quicksand / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Clark
Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We control the horizontal and the vertical. (Old outer limits TV show intro)
Bernanke speaking to the heads of the reserve banks.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Deflation becomes the Dominant Economic Trend / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
One of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in. Can we reasonably expect a return of inflation in the foreseeable future? The Kress Cycles say “No!” and tell us to expect just the opposite, namely a deflationary trend. This has certainly been the dominant economic trend since the credit crisis of 2008 and, in some areas, even before then.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
There will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Adam_Lass
Is Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.
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Sunday, July 11, 2010
It’s “Chapter 66” as U.S. States Face De Facto Bankruptcy / Economics / US Debt
By: Justice_Litle
A number of U.S. states are facing bankruptcy – in fact if not in name – with Illinois and California leading the way.
When an individual goes bankrupt in the United States, it’s usually a Chapter 7. When a business goes under, it’s Chapter 11. Farmers have a Chapter 12, and there is a more complex individual option known as Chapter 13.
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Sunday, July 11, 2010
Economic Austerity or Stimulus Without Significant Reform Is Madness / Economics / Market Regulation
By: Jesse
The economy will not 'cure itself' through benign neglect and liquidationism, because it did not get this way by itself. It did not suffer an accident, or an act of God. This is an unfortunate application of the principle of human healing after an injury to the economy.
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy
By: EconGrapher
This week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Did Retail Sales Rise or Did Tax Rates Go Up? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Following Yesterday's Hype of Fastest Growth in 4 Years, June Retail Sales a "Mixed Bag" a couple of people challenged me on retail sales figures, notably a statement that state sales tax collections were still down.
Let's take a quick look at data from a few key states followed by a closer look under the hood as to what is really happening and why.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Economic Downward Deflationary Spiral: The Next Big Wave of Deflation is Upon Us / Economics / Deflation
By: Global_Research
Michael Schmidt writes: It looks like the next big wave of deflation is upon us. Looking at some key fundamentals, we see the labor market is again shredding jobs (652,000 in June), the money supply is contracting at levels not seen since the Great Depression and the US Federal Governments finances are in complete disaster.
Friday, July 09, 2010
Britain’s Austerity Budget: A Declaration of Class War? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Global_Research
Hugo Radice writes: The June Budget - Following the inconclusive outcome of the British general election on May 6th, the ‘centrist’ Liberal Democratic Party decided to turn sharply to the right by agreeing to join the Tories in a coalition government. In the run-up to the election, the Tories had argued strongly that Britain faced the prospect of a fiscal crisis unless the government's deficit was brought down further and faster than the outgoing Labour government intended (see The Bullet no.350).
Friday, July 09, 2010
Uncertainty Undermining the Global Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday (Thursday) that the global economic recovery is losing steam because uncertainty in financial markets is keeping businesses and consumers from investing in future growth.
Friday, July 09, 2010
The Global Double-Dip Recession: Which Markets to Hold… And Which Ones May Fold / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Last week's stock-market meltdown was a worldwide affair, and was touched off by trader fears of a global "double-dip" recession.
However, the truth is that the odds of a recessionary reprise are high in just a few countries - primarily those that have experienced excessive fiscal and monetary "stimulus," or that have real inflation problems.
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Friday, July 09, 2010
Consumption Inflection Point, No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Consumer credit has fallen an unprecedented 7 consecutive quarters. Moreover, credit is poised to plunge further as consumer spending plans are falling through the floor.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
In the Shadow of the Dragon / Economics / China Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
John Downs writes: Although China is not the biggest economy in the world by GDP, (it is third, after growing a remarkable 8.7 percent last year), its exports are increasingly seen as the needed lifeline for many shaky economies. But as China plots its future as the world's largest exporter, it must be of some concern to them that their top two clients (the US and EU) are broke. As a result, China knows that it will have to look beyond developed markets for continued growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.