Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy
By: Francois_Soto
ECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The Big Picture Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bryan_Rich
Last week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture — a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward.
Today, I’d like to continue with the second part of my analysis.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
US Money Supply Plunges At 1930's Pace And Housing Index Dives / Economics / Deflation
By: Sol_Palha
"Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn't." ~ Erica Jong
The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history. The M3 figures - which include broad range of bank accounts and are tracked by British and European monetarists for warning signals about the direction of the US economy a year or so in advance - began shrinking last summer. The pace has since quickened.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Increasing Risk of Double Dip Recession as Leading Economic Indicators Start to Turn / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The Risk of Recession
The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn
Terms of Trade and US Real GDP
Bernanke at the Crossroads
We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Industrial Production, Commodity Prices, and Inflation / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dhaval_Shah
This week we look at Industrial Production figures from the US, EU, Japan and China, and then we take a look at where commodities are tracking, before reviewing the inflation results out over the week from the US and EU. Then we finish up with a review of the monetary policy decisions from Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico. The analysis echoes some of the comments made in the economic calendar for the week just past.
Friday, June 25, 2010
British Banks Determined to Bankrupt Britain / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England has raised concerns over British banks exposure to European sovereign debt in its Financial Stability Report, calling on the banks to raise capital reserves in advance of future debt defaults, and to extend the maturity of the banking sectors wholesale funding as short-term loans increase the risks of credit freeze events as they are rolled over.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Europe’s Fiscal Dystopia: The “New Austerity” Road to Financial Serfdom / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
Europe is committing fiscal suicide – and will have little trouble finding allies at this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Toronto. Despite the deepening Great Recession threatening to bring on outright depression, European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and prime ministers from Britain’s David Cameron to Greece’s George Papandreou (president of the Socialist International) and Canada’s host, Conservative Premier Stephen Harper, are calling for cutbacks in public spending.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Why Investors Must Keep an Eye on Spain / Economics / Spain
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Greece is not the big story of Europe anymore - just a smoke screen.
The big story is Spain and the United Kingdom, and the news is getting worse.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
How to Profit From Europe’s Stealth Economic Recovery / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: European countries - both inside and outside the Eurozone - are slashing their budget deficits.
Greece, Portugal and Spain - three of the so-called "PIGS" - have to do so, of course. But Germany - generally reckoned to be in excellent shape - is also cutting its deficit, as is France, which hasn't run a budget surplus in 40 years. Britain, too, with no need to protect the euro (it's not a Eurozone member) just introduced a budget that cut the deficit by $140 billion over four years.
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Friday, June 25, 2010
The Case for a Second Round of Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
Alan Greenspan has joined the ranks of the deficit hawks and is calling for austerity measures to reduce government spending. In an op-ed in last Thursday's Wall Street Journal titled "U.S. Debt and the Greece Analogy", Maestro Greenspan made the case for fiscal belt-tightening and disputed leading economists, like Nobel prize winners Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, who believe that the Obama administration should provide a second round of stimulus. In the opening paragraph, Greenspan dismisses the idea that cuts in government spending will push the economy back into recession. Here's an excerpt:
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Trichet Says No Deflation or Economic Stagnation in Europe / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
A sure sign that something is either on the way if not already happening is denial by a central banker of the risks. With that idea in place, this headline speaks for itself: ECB's Trichet says austerity plans don't risk stagnation
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Central Banking in Crisis, Twenty Countries on the Verge of Insolvency / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
Cycles were created for the accumulation of wealth. A boom occurs and you get wealthy from investments on the way up and even wealthier on the way down, because the elitists are controlling the supply of money and credit and interest rates. That is the real underlying mission of the Fed, which is owned by banking and Wall Street. All the power to control markets and create inflation and deflation lies with the Federal Reserve. Politicians do not create monetary policy, the Fed does. The politicians do as they are told. They know from time to time there will be economic pain, but the payoffs are so good they learn to live with it.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
U.S. Fears Economic Stimulus Measures Will Choke on Europe’s Drastic Budget Slashing / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: While U.S. President Barack Obama will be gunning for more economic stimulus measures at this weekend's Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Canada, European lawmakers continue drastic efforts to rein in spending.
The coordination of global efforts to promote economic recovery will be the main issue at the weekend's meeting, which was set to spotlight the value of China's currency before Beijing announced Saturday that it would allow the yuan to appreciate. The United States and Europe's differing views on the most effective strategies to maintain global economic growth and slash bloated government budgets are increasing tensions between leaders.
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Thursday, June 24, 2010
We Cannot Afford a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Casey_Research
By Alex Daley, Senior Editor, Casey Research writes: Talk of a double-dip recession is seemingly increasing these days. Home sales have dropped like a brick since the end of the special tax breaks for buyers. Weekly job reports are showing much larger rises in unemployment claims than previously expected by whoever it is that decides what exactly is expected - 427,000 new filings in just the last weekly report.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Two Leading Economic Indicators Point to Another Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Claus_Vogt
There are two well-known and important leading economic indexes for the U.S. economy:
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), and
• The Weekly U.S. Leading Economic Index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Money vs Wealth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
When discussing financial matters, people often conflate money with wealth. Although such loose language may be perfectly fine in everyday conversation, it's important to occasionally go over the basics and make sure we are thinking about these issues in the proper way.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
UK Budget 2010 Analysis, Consumers, Public Sector and Benefit Claimers to Carry the Weight / Economics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osbourne delivered his first budget flanked by Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander on either side, and clearing the uncertainty of the past 6 months which allows business's and individuals to make long-term decisions. The primary objective of the emergency budget is to address the unsustainable £156 billion annual budget deficit that risks bankrupting Britain, in this respect the budget appears to have succeeded in projecting that over the term of the parliament this deficit will be reduced to £20 billion per year.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
What's the Point of Macro Events Research in Forecasting? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
I am back in Tuscany and will head to Milan tomorrow early, give a speech at the Bloomberg offices and then back home. But it is Monday and that means it is time for another Outside the Box. And I have found a most excellent offering. Dylan Grice from Societe Generale in London wrote on value for an OTB a few weeks ago, and he follows that up with more thoughts on the use of macro trends versus value investing. This is a real think piece, and worthy of more than one read.
Monday, June 21, 2010
UK Emergency Budget 2010: George Osbourne's Wage Inflation Price Spiral VAT Increase / Economics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osbourne, the Coalition governments chancellor looks set to announce deep spending cuts and significant tax rises in tomorrows budget. However what will be the lasting impact of the budget will be the changes to the rate and scope of VAT with the aim of raising at least £15 billion extra revenue per year, that will come to be seen as the budget that sparked the wage price spiral.
Monday, June 21, 2010
101 Scary Thoughts about the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_North
1. The crucial objective factor promoting economic growth in a private property social order is per capita investment.
2. Americans save less than 5% of household income.
3. The Federal Reserve System runs the show economically; Congress doesn't.
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