Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, May 27, 2010
The Path to Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
As we’ve discussed recently, persistent deflationary forces do not augur for a repeat of Japan circa 1990s or the US in the 1930s. Instead, because of the inability of government’s to finance their current and future debt burden (there is a dearth of domestic savings and global capital), deflationary forces will ultimately lead to severe inflation or hyperinflation. In today’s missive, we explain how this will happen but in various stages.
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Thursday, May 27, 2010
Global Economic Recovery Gaining Momentum, but Obstacles Remain / Economics / Economic Recovery
Kerri Shannon writes: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it has lifted its economic growth outlook, but warned that governments must enforce strict fiscal policies to sustain the global recovery and balance global expansion.
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Thursday, May 27, 2010
Europe on the Verge of a Liquidity Crisis? / Economics / Euro-Zone
Jason Simpkins writes: The euro's recent struggles have done more than bring the currency's viability into question. They've put the European Central Bank (ECB) on a collision course with a liquidity crisis.
The ECB is running low on dollars, and that problem could escalate when the U.S. Federal Reserve closes swap lines that were temporarily reinstated as the Greek debt crisis escalated. Additionally, more deposits are being yanked from the central bank as holders question whether or not the ECB has enough juice to stop a classic bank panic.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2010
What is the Underground Economy? / Economics / Economic Theory
Danny LeRoy writes: What is the underground economy?
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Wednesday, May 26, 2010
U.S.A Drops From 1st to 3rd Most Competitive Country / Economics / US Economy
The United States of America has, for the first time in a decade, fallen from first place to third in the ranking of the Most Competitive Countries, according to the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010, drawn up by the Institute for Management Development in Switzerland.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2010
U.S. Inflation Prospects / Economics / Inflation
Inflation in the United States is extremely low with the GDP deflator coming in at 0.4 percent and the Core Consumer Price Index measuring 1.1 percent year over year. For April 2010, the last month reported, the CPI declined 0.1 percent.
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Tuesday, May 25, 2010
The U.S. Economy Really is in Trouble / Economics / US Economy
Although industrial production has continued to grow manufacturing has started to slow. There were mass layoffs in April with manufacturing taking the lead. The Fed reported that that its index of manufacturing activity for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut had slowed significantly while the Philadelphia Fed reported that manufacturing growth had decelerated and that in May there was a significant drop in orders for manufactured goods. Adding to the woe was a report by The Conference Board that its index of leading economic indicators dropped in April, the first fall in about twelve months. What the devil is going on? Without a doubt this is the worst 'recovery' in post-war history.
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
How Hidden Pools of Government Money Could Help Save the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
For over a decade, accountant Walter Burien has been trying to rouse the public over what he contends is a massive conspiracy and cover-up, involving trillions of dollars squirreled away in funds maintained at every level of government. His numbers may be disputed, but these funds definitely exist, as evidenced by the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs) required of every government agency. If they don’t represent a concerted government conspiracy, what are they for? And how can they be harnessed more efficiently to help allay the financial crises of state and local governments?
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
UK 300,000 Public Sector Job Cuts, Many Quangos to be Axed / Economics / UK Economy
Cheers to Austerity in the UK. Here is something the US needs to see twentyfold minimum: 300,000 jobs in public sector face the axe
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
Revisionist History: Violation of Economic Laws, Why You've Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920 / Economics / Economic Theory
Lets take a look at what happens when economic laws are violated. Revisionist history is a useful, potent tool. The cats out of the bag and everyone knows Obama is a closet socialist, but lets take a look at a American favorite, Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Despite all his spending programs, public works, quick fix legislations, radio talks, etc., it solved nothing. Years after his programs were in full swing even his Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau admitted, "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work ... After eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... And an enormous debt to boot!". To wit - at least back then a high government official payed lip service to the truth.
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
Will Germany Drag World Economy Into Another Great Depression? / Economics / Great Depression II
Deficits create demand. Demand generates spending. Spending generates economic activity. Economic activity generates growth. Growth generates jobs, increases government revenues, reduces deficits and ends recessions.
Simple, right?
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Saturday, May 22, 2010
European Union's Debt Crisis Stormy Seas on the Atlantic / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
The European Union's debt crisis, the threatened collapse of its fledgling 'euro' currency, and the uncertainties created by the UK elections may seem very far removed from the American ship of state, but, in reality, this turbulence threatens to capsize our fragile economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 22, 2010
The True State of Today’s U.S. Economy, Facts Vs Fiction / Economics / US Economy
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report : There is a lot of “noise” being tossed out by the politicos and their preferred pundits about how the U.S. economy is on the mend. Thus it is important to try and separate fact from fiction about where things really stand.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Brazil’s Infrastructure Plays Catch Up / Economics / Brazil
Brazil has become one of the globe’s beacons of growth but in terms of infrastructure investment it needs to catch up to its peers.
As you can see from the two charts below, Brazil’s investment in its infrastructure has lagged that of emerging market leaders India and China, but it’s also lagged other Latin American countries like Peru and Mexico. In terms of investment-to-GDP ratio, Brazil averaged 17 percent over the past five years, according to a Morgan Stanley report, far behind China (44 percent), India (38 percent) and Russia (24 percent).
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Dodge Possible Debt Debacle With These Economic Stimulus Plan Safety Plays / Economics / Economic Stimulus
Martin Hutchinson writes: U.S. President Barack Obama's $862 billion stimulus plan, passed in great haste after his inauguration, has now revealed its true costs and benefits. It didn't revive the U.S. economy - that bottomed about May 2009, before a dollar of it had been spent. Further, combined with the mad wave of similar "stimulus" outlays across the planet, it has destabilized global bond markets - which may end up being very expensive indeed.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
The Eurozone Stimulus Package and Economic Fundamentals / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
On Monday, May 10, eurozone officials presented a stimulus plan involving $1 trillion. The main reason for the package, as stated by officials, is to prevent European economies from falling into an economic black hole on account of the economic crisis in Greece.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Sovereign Debt Crisis, Have We Crossed the Point of No Return? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
A specter is haunting the world, and especially Europe: the specter of a sovereign insolvency. The acute sovereign-debt crisis is largely the result of government interventions in response to the financial crisis.
As Austrian business-cycle theory explains, the credit expansion of the fractional-reserve-banking system had caused an unsustainable boom. At artificially low interest rates, additional investment projects were undertaken even though there was no corresponding increase in real savings.
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Thursday, May 20, 2010
New Zealand Said No to Economic Death by Debt, Why Can't We? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
Floy Lilley writes: Anyone reading news feeds on the global financial crisis is painfully aware that the world as we know it is rapidly destabilizing. Bottomless debt is gaping open in unfamiliar terrain like crevasses in Ruth Glacier near the end of June.
Europe debt woes have pummeled the euro and Asian shares. Eurozone taxpayers are now extremely exposed to high credit risk, leading to a panic in the world markets, as foreign holders of Greek and Portuguese debt have seized on emergency intervention by the European Central Bank to scamper out of their positions. The chief executive of Deutsche Bank said it would require “incredible efforts” by Greece for its debt to ever be repaid in full.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Eurozone Crisis at Point of Maximum Danger, Great Depression II? / Economics / Euro-Zone
Debt woes in Greece have sent bond yields soaring and increased the prospect of sovereign default. A restructuring of Greek debt will deal a blow to lenders in Germany and France that are insufficiently capitalized to manage the losses. Finance ministers, EU heads-of-state and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded forcefully to try to avert another banking meltdown that could plunge the world back into recession.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Economic Meltdown, Only Entrepreneurs Can Save Us / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Jim Davies writes: As the absurd machinery of government staggers daily towards total breakdown, to be "rescued" however temporarily by this or that stimulus of printed money, I'm hearing the view that the end is near, that freedom is just around the corner, that the collapse of the statist paradigm is almost upon us. Please, not so fast!
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