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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

U.S. Secular Economic Stagnation? / Economics / US Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Stagnationists have been around for centuries. They have embraced many economic theories about what causes economic stagnation. That’s a situation in which total output, or output per capita, is constant, falling slightly, or rising sluggishly. Stagnation can also be characterized by a situation in which unemployment is chronic and growing.

Before we delve into the secular stagnation debate – a debate that has become a hot topic – a few words about current economic developments in the U.S. are in order. What was recently noticed was the Federal Reserve’s increase, for the first time in nearly a decade, of the fed funds interest rate by 0.25 percent. What went unnoticed, but was perhaps more important, was that the money supply, broadly measured by the Center for Financial Stability’s Divisia M4, jumped to a 4.6 percent year-over-year growth rate. This was the largest increase since May 2013.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growth Upward to 1.99% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.99% annualized rate, down -0.08% from their previous estimate -- and down nearly 2% (-1.93%) from the second quarter.

Almost all of the revisions in this report were minor, with the largest changes again involving the especially noisy inventory data. Most of the other line items were essentially unchanged. Inventories were reported to have been contracting at a -0.71% annualized rate, a -0.12% deterioration from from the -0.59% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was actually revised upward +0.04% to a +2.70% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.66% previously reported.

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Economics

Monday, December 21, 2015

The Recession And Bear Market Of 2016, In Two Charts / Economics / Recession 2016

By: John_Rubino

Good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a couple of charts that show the US economy heading for a brick wall. The first illustrates what happens when business sales (the green line) turn negative. In the previous two boom/bust cycles, when sales started falling the economy either tipped into recession shortly thereafter or (it was discovered in retrospect) was already well into a contraction.

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Economics

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Velocity of the American Consumer / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I was reading something yesterday by my highly esteemed fellow writer Charles Hugh Smith that had me first puzzled and then thinking ‘I don’t think so’, in the same vein as Mark Twain’s recently over-quoted quote:

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

I was thinking that was the case with Charles’ article. I was sure it just ain’t so. As for Twain, I’m more partial to another quote of his these days (though it has absolutely nothing to do with the topic:

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Economics

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Consumer Prices: A Sticky Situation / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have noted anecdotally that there is a creeping inflation in the system.  It does not show up in commodities, which are in a post-bubble (ah, the good old ‘China story’ that was so vigorously promoted to a degree that would make a gold bug promoter blush) melt down.  Crashing costs like that are providing the Goldilocks-like balance to rising costs within the economy.

This morning, the highly recommended Daily Shot had among its macro graphs a look at the “sticky” consumer price index.  That got me to go over to the St. Louis Fed website and pull a couple different views of it.  First, here is SLF’s description of the sticky index…

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Economics

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

UK Jobs: No Pay, No Play / Economics / Employment

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Today's release of the UK jobs figures confirms the suspicions of the doves at the Bank of England, with earnings (pay) growth continuing to decline, joblessness pushing higher for the fourth straight month even as the unemployment rate hit a fresh 7-year low of 5.2%.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Vietnam Sails Smoothly Through The Commodity Storm / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Submissions

Dylan Waller writes: While the gloom faced in commodity prices has created slowed economic growth throughout frontier and emerging markets, there is one global market in Asia in particular that has not been deterred: Vietnam. Low commodity prices have been gruesome for some companies, and on a much larger scale has led to a global economic slowdown for commodity based economies.  While the current environment has created a flurry of buy opportunities in commodity based economies, investment in Vietnam provides a similar opportunity with substantially lower risk. Vietnam’s economy, driven by its strategic advantage of low cost manufacturing, is continuing to maintain its position as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, and is poised for stronger economic growth throughout 2025.  

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Economics

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Do You Follow The Hype Surrounding Economic Reporting? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Rodney_Johnson

When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.” The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.

I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.

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Economics

Monday, December 07, 2015

What Deflation Quacks Like / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to China’s falling demand for iron ore and a whole list of other commodities.

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Economics

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Strong U.S. Payroll Number +211,000 Assures December Interest Rate Hike / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

Following last month's payroll surge comes a second strong month. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 190,000 jobs and the headline total was 211,000. The unemployment rate was steady to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008. A rate hike in December is now assured.

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Economics

Friday, December 04, 2015

The “Real Stuff” Economy Is Falling Apart / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

Each month one or two high-profile government reports show the US is growing, adding jobs and generally recovering from the Great Recession. But it’s not clear how that can be, when the part of the economy that makes and moves real things keeps shrinking. Here’s a chart, published recently by Zero Hedge, showing that US manufacturing has been contracting for the past year:

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Economics

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Bank Regulations Continue To Hinder The U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Market Regulation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Money matters — it’s one of Milton Friedman’s maxims that I repeat often in my columns. Since the Northern Rock bank run of 2007 — the “opening shot” of the financial crisis — the money supply, broadly measured, in the United States, Great Britain, and the Eurozone has taken a beating.

Recently, in the United States, money supply growth has started to rebound somewhat. This is a positive sign, because the quantity of money and nominal gross domestic product (GDP), as well as related measures of aggregate demand, are all closely related. Indeed, if broad money growth is robust, the nominal GDP, which is composed of real and inflation components, will be robust and vice versa.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Collapsing Global Economic Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The global economic trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year. Among the many economic indicators that experts use to gauge the health of the world economy, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) usually goes unnoticed. This Index offers an indication of the global demand and supply of major stock materials that are used by manufacturers at the beginning of production. And the shocking truth is that the index has been plummeting to reach a new low not seen before.

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Economics

Friday, November 27, 2015

Economics Is About Scarcity, Property, and Relationships / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Michael J. McKay writes: The other day I was having coffee with a new friend, a retired businessman who had customized luxury cars in California. I mentioned I had recently retired from owning an investment firm and had studied economics for many years, especially Austrian economics.

Like so many people, he said, “I really don't understand economics and always have been confused by it.”

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Economics

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.07% annualized rate, up +0.58% from their previous estimate -- but still down nearly 2% (-1.85%) from the second quarter.

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Economics

Monday, November 23, 2015

The Success of Irish Economic Austerity: The Joke is on Krugman / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Michael_Pento

During the late 1990s, Ireland's economy was booming. This was mostly due to a low corporate tax rate of just 12.5% and an international real estate bubble that boosted global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For a myriad of reasons Ireland was a magnet for foreign direct investment and the envy of Europe.

Buoyed by cheap money, the Irish government embarked on a debt-fueled property boom from 1997 to 2006, which caused the price of an average house to jump more than four-fold. Flush with tax revenue the government also went on a spending binge: investment in Ireland's health service soared by five times and pay for government workers doubled.

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Economics

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices / Economics / Global Economy

By: Nicole_Foss

Nicole Foss: After more than 30 years of exponential growth, gargantuan resource demand and increasingly frenetic consumption, we have now reached, or are reaching, an array of limits to growth. During our long, debt-fuelled boom, we reached out spatially through globalisation to monetise as much global production as possible, in order to facilitate the efficient transfer of wealth from the global periphery to its economic heartland.

We also, through the profligate use of credit and debt, reached forward in time to borrow from the future in order to stage an orgy of consumption in the present. This spectacularly successful modern form of economic imperialism delivered unprecedented wealth concentration, the like of which previous imperial structures could not have dreamed of attaining.

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Economics

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Pakistan Stands Strong During Emerging Market Uncertainty / Economics / Pakistan

By: Submissions

Dylan Waller writes: China’s currency devaluation in August created an FX turmoil for a large number of countries in Asia, and with a potential Fed rate hike coming this December, it may be befitting to turn to overlooked areas in Asia to achieve a solid portfolio return. Despite the rapid growth of Pakistan’s economy and its stock exchange, it remains a relegated destination for investment, and a country that Asia based hedge funds consider to be too risky.   The Karachi Stock Exchange has had a 1 year return of 13.95%, making it one of the best performing stock markets in Asia.  Pakistan’s currency is another bright spot for the country, as it has only had a 4.9% YTD depreciation against the USD.  With much of Asia suffering from high FX losses and less superior performing stock markets, Pakistan’s recent performance gives it a prestigious standing in Asia.  

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Economics

Friday, November 20, 2015

The End Of The Economic Recovery, In One Chart / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.

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Economics

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Japans Sinking Economy - Is Anybody Okay Out There? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Rubino

In normal times, the world’s major economies are a mixed bag. Some are up, some are down, some are placid, some are in crisis. It’s only at the boom/bust extremes that everyone finds themselves in more-or-less the same boat.

This is looking like one of those times — and the boat is sinking. Japan, for instance, is back in recession…

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