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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

U.S. Inflation Setup to Upset / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Is U.S. inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median U.S. CPI. That measure is calculated monthly by the diligent elves at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Period of time for chart is past ten years.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

The Gig Economy Is the New Normal / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

An already-confusing employment environment grew even more complicated this past week. Many readers responded to my “Crime in the Jobs Report” letter with their own stories. Some confirmed what I wrote, while others disputed it. Some of the stories I read from readers who are stuck far from where they want to be in this job market were very moving. I think everyone agrees the labor outlook is uncertain. I sense a lot of nervousness, even from those who have secure jobs that pay well. In today’s letter, I’m going to respond to some of the observations and data that came in this week on employment.

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Economics

Monday, November 16, 2015

How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Michael_Pento

Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.

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Economics

Monday, November 16, 2015

BRICS? No, CRISIS / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Raymond_Matison

On Monday, October 23, 2015, the Iranian news agency Tasnim cited its Deputy Minister of Economic Development who announced that Iran would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB).  The NDB was officially created by the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - in July of this year, with an initial capitalization of $100 billion.  Iran’s participation would allow it, or any other participating country, to develop closer economic, trade and international policy ties with the BRICS nations, and utilize NDB funds for economic development.

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Economics

Saturday, November 14, 2015

How Many More U.S. Recession Confirmations Do You Need? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: James_Quinn

Despite the bogus BLS employment report last week (so the Fed could raise rates before the next financial crisis hits), all economic data confirms an economic recession. Corporate profits are falling, and their forecasts for next quarter are worse. Global trade is slowing dramatically. Oil prices and other commodities are plummeting to multi-year lows. Manufacturing and Services surveys are flashing red. China, Japan and European economies continue to suck wind. Layoff announcements by major corporations are up 40% over last year. A global deflationary recession is underway. Only a CNBC bimbo, shill or Ivy League educated economist isn’t bright enough to see it.

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Economics

Friday, November 13, 2015

Brutal Economic News As The World Rolls Over / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Rubino

Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere.

US retail sales are flat and wholesale prices are falling. Big retail chains are missing on earnings and seeing their shares plunge.

Chinese nonperforming loans are soaring while imports, car sales and steel production are way down.

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Economics

Friday, November 13, 2015

Deflation and the Devaluation Derby - A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

U.S. labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in 38 years

Editor's note: You'll find a text version of the story below the video.

I was in the café of a bookstore recently and overheard a young man tell his friend, "It's hard to get a job these days, even with a degree."

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Economics

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Oops The Feds Did it Again- Are They Setting up The Masses for Another Stimulus Program / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Sol_Paha

"I guess the definition of a lunatic is a man surrounded by them." ~ Ezra Pound

Is the Fed playing mind games with the masses or is it simply another version of Britney Spears hit song "Oops I did it again"? Only this time they did not. They keep mouthing off that they are ready to raise rates and then suddenly just before the moment to pull the trigger draws near; some unforeseeable event springs up, and they kick the can down the road again. Two questions comes to mind.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

BOA's Moynihan: U.S. Consumer Spending Strong in October / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Brian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, spoke with Bloomberg Television's David Westin today about the risks facing the banking industry and the state of the global economy.

Moynihan on U.S. consumer spending: "October is probably one of the strongest months this year relative to October of last year…It's a strong economy…Unemployment levels are down, and wage growth is picking up. That’s all good. Now the question is, what can derail that. And that’s what we have to pay attention to."

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Economics

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

The Business Cycle Is Winding Down / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Rodney_Johnson

From April through October, I race a 37-foot sailboat every Thursday night. The course changes weekly, and ranges from three to seven miles long, depending on the wind.

Before the race, we review the course and weather conditions and decide our strategy for the starting line. During the race, we generally enjoy the sail and competition, with only the occasional bout of yelling. We also enjoy a good beer, while on the boat and afterwards when we retire to the local Irish pub.

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Economics

Monday, November 09, 2015

Is Japan's Wicked Economic Winter Almost Over? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: EWI

Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun

The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."

Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.

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Economics

Monday, November 09, 2015

U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Turns Into the Dark Ages / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The October ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been the official barometer of the U.S. manufacturing sector since 1915, came in with a reading of just 50.1. This was a level barely above contraction.

Of the 18 industries surveyed in the Regional Manufacturing Survey, 9 reported contraction in October: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

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Economics

Monday, November 09, 2015

U.S. Jobs NonFarm Payrolls +271,000; Is the Game Changing? / Economics / Employment

By: Gary_Tanashian

I can already tell NFTRH 368 is going to be a flowing thing because there is a lot of on-point material to talk about. So the usual standard charts will be minimized in favor of trying to get a good read on what is in process in the markets, in policy and in the economy.

Specifically, given the October Payrolls data, its effect on interest rates and the US dollar we seem to be back to a point similar to where we were 1 year ago when we used a strong USD (and corresponding weak Yen and Euro) to plot bullish trade possibilities in Japan and Europe, and a bearish environment for US exporters.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

The Fed Desperately Tries to Maintain the Status Quo / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MISES

Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: During the press conferences of recent FOMC meetings, millions of well-educated investment professionals have been sitting in front of their screens, chewing their fingernails, listening as if spellbound to what Janet Yellen has to tell them. Will she finally raise the federal funds rate that has been zero bound for over six years?

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Economics

Friday, October 30, 2015

Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk? / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Why falling food prices are not a boon for Europe's economy

In the early 1990s, two simple words from a genius ad campaign radically transformed the way the U.S. consumer saw it: "Got Milk?"

Suddenly, the narrative changed from an obligatory drink you had to finish as a kid, along with eating your vegetables -- into a sexy, funny, and above all desirable treat for all ages.

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Economics

Friday, October 30, 2015

BEA Reports 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growing at Just 1.49% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.49% annualized rate, down -2.43% from the second quarter.

This report included significant changes in the details as well as the headline. By far the greatest quarter-over-quarter change was in inventories, which subtracted -1.44% from the headline after being essentially neutral during the prior quarter. As we have mentioned before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") reported a much more respectable +2.93% growth rate for the third quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Financialization of the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Roger Bootle once wrote:

The whole of economic life is a mixture of creative and distributive activities. Some of what we ‘‘earn’’ derives from what is created out of nothing and adds to the total available for all to enjoy. But some of it merely takes what would otherwise be available to others and therefore comes at their expense.

Successful societies maximise the creative and minimise the distributive. Societies where everyone can achieve gains only at the expense of others are by definition impoverished. They are also usually intensely violent….

Much of what goes on in financial markets belongs at the distributive end. The gains to one party reflect the losses to another, and the fees and charges racked up are paid by Joe Public, since even if he is not directly involved in the deals, he is indirectly through costs and charges for goods and services.

The genius of the great speculative investors is to see what others do not, or to see it earlier. This is a skill. But so is the ability to stand on tip toe, balancing on one leg, while holding a pot of tea above your head, without spillage. But I am not convinced of the social worth of such a skill.

This distinction between creative and distributive goes some way to explain why the financial sector has become so big in relation to gross domestic product – and why those working in it get paid so much.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

U.S. Economy On the Precipice of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Weakest economic recovery in seven decades gets weaker

Most people extrapolate present trends into the future. But yesterday's trend can look like day vs. night when tomorrow arrives.

Almost no one expected deflation when the December 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist said:

Inflation has raged, but deflation is next.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Zero Percent Inflation…What’s Next? / Economics / Deflation

By: Harry_Dent

During World War II, the Fed bought its own bonds to keep interest rates low and demand high enough to finance the war effort.

Back then, the Fed’s efforts did what you’d expect: they caused a modest level of inflation.

So you’d expect the unprecedented stimulus of today to create substantially higher inflation. In fact, with the greatest money printing in history, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to fear hyperinflation.

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Economics

Monday, October 26, 2015

The Global Depression and Deflation Is Currently Underway! / Economics / Deflation

By: Chris_Vermeulen

"The clear and present danger is, instead, that Europe will turn Japanese: that it will slip inexorably into deflation, that by the time the central bankers finally decide to loosen up it will be too late." Paul Krugman, "The Euro: Beware of What you Wish for", Fortune (1998)

Most central bank policy makers, investors, and analysts around the world today are gripped by the worry of declining growth rates, dwindling international commodity prices, high unemployment, and other macroeconomic figures.

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