Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
U.S. Real Deflation of -5.1% on Case Shiller CPI / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Case-Shiller CPI is formulated by substituting the Case-Shiller housing index for Owner's Equivalent Rent in the CPI. For a complete description of the reasons and methodology, please see What's the Real CPI?
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Sunday, October 04, 2009
IMF Optimistic About Russian Economy in 2010 / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
The International Monetary Fund published a report about the situation in the Russian economy in 2010. The nation’s GDP will drop by 7.5 percent in 2009, which is a larger number than in the previous report, but a smaller one if compared with the expectations of the Russian government. As for the next year, the IMF is more optimistic about it and expects a 1.5-percent growth of the GDP.
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Saturday, October 03, 2009
The Economic Recovery is an Illusion / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_G_Marshall
War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength, and Debt is Recovery
In light of the ever-present and unyieldingly persistent exclamations of ‘an end’ to the recession, a ‘solution’ to the crisis, and a ‘recovery’ of the economy; we must remember that we are being told this by the very same people and institutions which told us, in years past, that there was ‘nothing to worry about,’ that ‘the fundamentals are fine,’ and that there was ‘no danger’ of an economic crisis.
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Saturday, October 03, 2009
The Economy and Debt, A Pragmatic View / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Brian_Bloom
In Australia (as in many other countries of the world), our Federal Government’s reaction to the financial crisis was to distribute money in the form of “gifts”. Their intentions were supposedly honorable. They wanted to stimulate the economy. In the first instance, they wanted to stimulate the construction industry because housing is a very important element of the economy. So they offered the gift of a significant cash rebate (funded by taxpayer money) to first home buyers. What was the impact of this?
Friday, October 02, 2009
Financial Markets & Economic Warning Signals Flashing, Prepare to Protect and Profit / Economics / Great Depression II
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“August New Orders for Durable Goods Remained in Great Depression Territory…
Economic and Liquidity Crises Remain Ongoing No Recovery in New Orders or Housing Fed Pushes Monetary Base to Record High
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Is A Double Dip Recession Possible? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
The economic slowdown and severity of the stock market decline last year, and in January and February of this year, had the financial media and investors convinced the recession was headed down into the next Great Depression, and the Dow was therefore headed down to 1,000.
Friday, October 02, 2009
The Economic Recovery That Isn't / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Schiff
For those market boosters who are prattling on about the possibility of a "jobless recovery," I offer an invitation to join me for a breakfast of "fat-free bacon," "eggless omelets," and "no-carb bread." As unappetizing as such a meal may sound, it would nevertheless offer more substance than the oxymoronic concept of an economic resurgence without job creation.
Friday, October 02, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Soars to 26 Year High / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Sorry folks, I was one month early. In January I forecast the unemployment rate would hit 9.8% by August. Meanwhile, even though it was clear the Fed was wildly off base in its adverse scenario, the Fed upped it total to a mere 9.2% to 9.6% for the year as noted on May 21, 2009 in Fed's Economic Forecast Worsens; Still Ridiculously Optimistic.
Friday, October 02, 2009
We Are Certainly in a Deflationary Economic State / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Fueled by overcapacity, shrinking credit, reduced corporate spending and falling consumer demand, Deflation is taking root in global economies.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Progressive Perspectives on Solving the Global Financial Crisis Video / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Submissions
Francois Houtart – Member of the UN High-level task force on the financial crisis. Founder and President of the Centre Tricontinental and Professor Emeritus of Sociology at the Université Catholique de Louvain speaks about Progressive perspectives on solving the global economic crisis challenging the current government responses.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Markets Take Fright From Weak U.S. Economic Data / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Lloyds_TSB
Stock markets have taken fright at yesterday’s generally weakerthan- expected US economic data, with Treasuries moving higher. Final Q2 GDP figures showed a fairly benign 0.7% annualised pace of contraction against a consensus estimate of -1.2%. But the combination of a weak ADP and Chicago PMI report has cast fresh doubt on the sustainability of the US economic recovery, notwithstanding the noticeably firmer FOMC policy statement last week.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
PMI Economic Surprise and Biggest Stocks Rally Since 1998 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Shedlock
With each passing day the number of people that think the bottom is in, earnings will keep improving, and even a correction is unthinkable keeps rising. Here are a pair of interesting headlines moments apart on Bloomberg.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
U.S. Economy Better Than Expected in Second Quarter / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: LiveCharts
Many American consumers and businesses have been closely watching for verifiable signs that the US economy is, in fact, returning from recession. Many top economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have been saying for weeks that that is the case, but after a very dismal period for many homeowners and employees, proof is helpful.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Deflation, What You Can do to Survive the Economic Depression / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Governments across the world have adopted "Quantitative Easing" aka "Printing Money" to fight against Deflation that was threatening to push global economies into a downward deflationary spiral towards a prolonged period of economic depression. The question now is will printing money coupled with ZERO interest rates work ?
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Fractional Reserve Banking Made Easy / Economics / Central Banks
By: Terence_Gillespie
The paper bills in our wallet are not money. And they are not Notes as in "Federal Reserve Note" written on the top of the bill. They are actually just Tokens. Federal Reserve Tokens, if you like, is what should be written on top of the bills. They are not redeemable for anything other than themselves. And they represent only one thing: Your belief in their value. Hopefully, your belief extends to the next person you try to give them to.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
What Is Money? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
This question divides economists even more than it divides voters. Voters do not think much about this question. Economists think about it throughout their careers. They do not agree with each other regarding the answer.
The problem is, about half of American economists who specialize in monetary theory and banking policy are either on the payroll of the Federal Reserve System or sell their services to the FED on a piece-rate basis.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Four Big Economic Indicators to Watch for Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Nilus_Mattive
There are many items that influence the day-to-day moves in a stock, bond, or commodity’s price — earnings news, corporate financials, simple supply and demand, and a whole lot more. Heck, I’ve even read an academic study that argued the weather has a huge influence on whether markets close up or down!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Coffin Shaped Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
While often wrong, Bernanke is right about the recession. It’s almost over. But a depression is about to replace it.
There has been much discussion about this recovery, whether it will be a “U”, “V” or a “W” shaped recovery. The answer is none of the above. It is going to be “C -shaped” recovery, but not as in the letter “C” but as in coffin.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Financial Markets Resume Ascent on Hopes of Continuing Liquidity Flood / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Lloyds_TSB
Financial markets have resumed their ascent, partly on expectations/ hopes that policy comments and actions this week will underscore the likelihood that markets will remain flooded with excess liquidity for some time to come. In this regard, the ECB is due to conduct another 12-month repo operation today. Although the size of the operation is expected to be nothing like the €442bn injected into the system in late June, the fact the ECB is content to provide further long-term liquidity support, despite growing signs of economic recovery, is being viewed as positive for equities and short-dated bonds.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Repeating Generational Cycles Rhyming Into the Fourth Turning / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
This week for your Outside the Box reading pleasure I am pleased to offer you the beginning of a very intriguing interview with Neil Howe he did with my friend David Galland at Casey Research. I think Neil is one of the premier forward looking thinkers of our time. His book The Fourth Turning is one of the more important books of the last two decades. 12 years ago, he and the late Richard Strauss basically outlined the psycho-social dynamics of our current time and his predictions have been uncannily accurate.