Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
What Is Money? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
This question divides economists even more than it divides voters. Voters do not think much about this question. Economists think about it throughout their careers. They do not agree with each other regarding the answer.
The problem is, about half of American economists who specialize in monetary theory and banking policy are either on the payroll of the Federal Reserve System or sell their services to the FED on a piece-rate basis.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Four Big Economic Indicators to Watch for Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Nilus_Mattive
There are many items that influence the day-to-day moves in a stock, bond, or commodity’s price — earnings news, corporate financials, simple supply and demand, and a whole lot more. Heck, I’ve even read an academic study that argued the weather has a huge influence on whether markets close up or down!
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Coffin Shaped Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
While often wrong, Bernanke is right about the recession. It’s almost over. But a depression is about to replace it.
There has been much discussion about this recovery, whether it will be a “U”, “V” or a “W” shaped recovery. The answer is none of the above. It is going to be “C -shaped” recovery, but not as in the letter “C” but as in coffin.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Financial Markets Resume Ascent on Hopes of Continuing Liquidity Flood / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Lloyds_TSB
Financial markets have resumed their ascent, partly on expectations/ hopes that policy comments and actions this week will underscore the likelihood that markets will remain flooded with excess liquidity for some time to come. In this regard, the ECB is due to conduct another 12-month repo operation today. Although the size of the operation is expected to be nothing like the €442bn injected into the system in late June, the fact the ECB is content to provide further long-term liquidity support, despite growing signs of economic recovery, is being viewed as positive for equities and short-dated bonds.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Repeating Generational Cycles Rhyming Into the Fourth Turning / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
This week for your Outside the Box reading pleasure I am pleased to offer you the beginning of a very intriguing interview with Neil Howe he did with my friend David Galland at Casey Research. I think Neil is one of the premier forward looking thinkers of our time. His book The Fourth Turning is one of the more important books of the last two decades. 12 years ago, he and the late Richard Strauss basically outlined the psycho-social dynamics of our current time and his predictions have been uncannily accurate.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Myths of Deflation Causing Inflation by Means of Currency Devaluation / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Anemic Job Creation During The "Schumpeterian Economic Depression" / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal is discussing some interesting trends in business creation and small business hiring. Please consider Sharp Drop in Start-Ups Bodes Ill for Jobs, Growth Outlook.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Debt, the Rogue Elephant In Our Living Room / Economics / US Debt
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
What does “unsustainable” mean and look like with respect to our economy. Most of the public media (bubblevision), experts, pundits, economists, academics and elected officials don’t know economic history or choose to ignore it. I do believe the American people should understand these things and they aren’t taught in most universities. We need to keep our eye on the ball here and pay attention to what is being done, not what is being said. “Talk doesn’t cook rice” – Chinese proverb. This IS the elephant in our living room.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Rampant Debt Monetization Means U.S. Financial System is Doomed / Economics / US Debt
By: Bob_Chapman
Nearly half the nation's 25 biggest retail chains expect to hire fewer holiday workers this season than they did last year, another sign that retailers aren't counting on recession-strained shoppers to relax the tight grip on their pocketbooks this year.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Reflections on the Great Inflation Deflation Debate / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week I was in an inflation vs. deflation debate on Financial Sense with Daniel Amerman. The debate was moderated by Jim Puplava. It is a credit to Jim that he is willing to entertain both sides of an argument even though he himself is an inflationist.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
The Great China Economic Recovery Conundrum / Economics / China Economy
By: Clif_Droke
Probably the biggest “X-factor” in the ongoing effort at reviving the global economy is China. China is seen by many as the world’s emerging industrial powerhouse and its relationship with the United States is considered to be crucial for its own development, as well as for the strength of the world economy. With the U.S. in the role as the world’s premier consumer and China considered to be the major industrial player, all eyes are on the respective economies of these two great nations.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Double Dip Economic Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
What We See
And What We Don't See
The Statistical Recovery
A Double-Dip Recession?
Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation.
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Saturday, September 26, 2009
United States Government Picking Up the Borrowing Slack / Economics / US Debt
By: Mike_Shedlock
With consumers and businesses not only cutting back but actually reducing debt, A Rich Uncle Is Picking Up the Borrowing Slack.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Unwinding the Economic Stimulus, the Fed's Toughest Job Lies Ahead! / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Sy_Harding
Talk that was simmering before, about how the Fed will manage the eventual withdrawal of its massive economic stimulus programs, intensified this week when the Fed’s statement after its FOMC meeting was even more positive about the economic recovery than its previous statements.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Where Did All the Debt Go?, Economic Dark Matter Part2 / Economics / UK Debt
By: Adrian_Ash
"A mere $400bn went missing in the UK debt-savings boom of 2000-2008. Not to worry..."
SEEMS WE'RE NOT the only ones trying to figure out this week where the last decade's record consumer borrowing went.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
Paul Krugman's Identity Crisis, Lying to the American People / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Benjamin_Lee
Anyone who reads Paul Krugman, our latest "Nobel Prize-winning economist," knows that Krugman believes inflation is not a threat to the economy at all. He is a regular defender of large fiscal deficits and expansionary monetary policy, claiming that they are the road to salvation from our so-called deflationary spiral. (We'll ignore the fact that this "deflationary spiral" involves six straight months of price increases and regular complaints from Mr. Krugman himself about skyrocketing costs in health care.)
Friday, September 25, 2009
Financial Crisis in Russia Ruins Economies of Post Soviet States / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Migrant workers who earn their living in the Russian Federation sharply reduced the size of bank transfers to their families. According to the report of Asia Development Bank, in the first six months of 2009, the sum of money transferred by migrants to the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia reduced by approximately 25 percent compared to the same period last year. However, the money transferred by guest workers is a serious support factor for the economies of post-Soviet countries.
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Friday, September 25, 2009
Does a Liquidity Trap Pose a Threat Economic Recovery? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Frank_Shostak
The latest data for lending in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States display a visible weakening. In the eurozone, the yearly rate of growth of bank lending to the private sector fell to 0.6% this July from 9.3% in July last year. In the United Kingdom, the yearly rate of growth of lending to the private sector fell to 2.2% in July 2009 from 10.1% in July 2008. In the United States, the rate of growth of lending plunged to minus 3.8% in August 2009 from a positive figure of 8.6% in August 2008.
Friday, September 25, 2009
The U.S. and China Put on Their Boxing Gloves … / Economics / Global Economy
By: Tony_Sagami
If someone loaned you $600 BILLION, and you wanted to borrow even more, you’d be very careful to stay on his good side, wouldn’t you?
Of course you would! But that is exactly the opposite of how Washington is treating Chinese government lenders.
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Thursday, September 24, 2009
United States Following Japans Deflation Footsteps / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The US is following the footsteps of Japan. It is now undeniable. Please consider the following chart.
Japanese GDE from the 1989 peak to Present
US GDP 1999 peak to Present