Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Don't Fall for the Deflation Hype, Beware Inflation Remains a Threat / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyWeek
So deflation's not all bad after all then.
The average commuter will see the price of a season ticket fall by around 0.4% next year, after the annual rate of retail price index inflation came in at -1.4% in July. It might not sound like much of a price cut, but it's a damn sight better than the 6% raise most had to pay out this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The Secret of China's Economic Success: State Owned Banks / Economics / China Economy
By: Global_Research
Ellen Brown writes: “The banks -- hard to believe in a time when we’re facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created -- are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. They frankly own the place.” -- U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, Democratic Party Whip, April 30, 2009.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
This is a transcript of Prof. Joseph Peden's 50-minute lecture "Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire" given at the Mises Institute Seminar on Money and Government in Houston, Texas on October 27, 1984. The original audio recording is available courtesy of the Mises Institute.
Two centuries ago, in 1776, there were two books published in England, both of which are read avidly today. One of them was Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations and the other was Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon's multi-volume work is the tale of a state that survived for twelve centuries in the west and for another thousand years in the east, at Constantinople.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Media Economist Paul Krugman Is Insane / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: I think that Paul Krugman is one of those absurd guys that has no idea what in the hell he is talking about and who owes his undeserved prominence to being a real butt-kissing sucker-upper to Alan Greenspan and his Federal Reserve, and now he’s doing the same thing to the laughable Ben Bernanke and his disastrous Federal Reserve, although I will admit that I don’t know why anybody listens to this guy.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
U.S. Heading for Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are digging into the July 2009 Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.
The survey shows that bank lending standards continue to tighten at varying rates by loan category.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The Potential for Future Economic GDP Growth / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer you two short pieces for your Outside the Box Reading Pleasure. The first is from my friends at GaveKal and is part of their daily letter. They address the real difference between those who think we will have a consumer led recovery (Keynesian) and those who think we will have a corporate profit led recovery (classical economics or Schumpeterian). This is actually a very important debate and distinction. I find that GaveKal pushes me to think almost more than any other group, as they constantly challenge my assumptions. (www.gavekal.com)Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 17, 2009
Economic Recovery Foundation Built on Sand / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Michael_Pento
A Brief Review - Instead of allowing a cathartic and reconciling recession to run its course, the Fed decided last year to again bail out the economy by greatly expanding the money supply. In this latest case of artificial intervention, the expansion in the monetary base was a record-breaking trillion dollars, but that intervention has abated in the last few months. What should become clear fairly soon is that the apparent recovery in the markets and the economy has been built primarily on the devaluation of the US dollar, not from a healing of the economy’s fundamentals. That clarity will become evident once the dollar begins to make a brief rebound.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Second Wave of the Economic Depression: Hyperinflation is Likely / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Global_Research
Webster Tarpley writes: The second wave of the world economic depression is coming soon. Larry Summers, the economics czar of the Wall Street puppet regime currently in power in Washington, recently confessed to the Financial Times in an unguarded moment: "I don't think the worst is over .." A few weeks earlier, Jacques Attali, who served in the 1980s as the main economics adviser to French President Mitterrand, told an audience at the International Economic and Financial Forum (FIEF) in Paris that the world might well soon face a planetary Weimar "in the form of a hyperinflationary depression similar to the German events of 1922 - 1923.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Cash for Scrappage of Old Fridges Can’t Save the Global Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: MoneyWeek
John Stepek writes: ‘Scrappage’ fever is gripping the land. First it was about “cash for clunkers”. Governments across the world are giving people money in return for swapping their old dirty cars for newer, ‘greener’ models.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Remarkable Economic Underway in Asia, Same True for the Western Economies? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Lloyds_TSB
It is clear that a remarkable economic recovery is underway in Asia, led by China and India, but is the same true of the developed economies? Recent economic figures for Germany and France have prompted many commentators to predict that recovery has started. But is this true or is it more a levelling off of activity? Moreover, not only have financial markets been expecting recovery, as shown by the strong rise in equities in recent months, but they have been looking for it to start in Europe ahead of the US. Further, the expectation was that, within Europe, the UK would be the first out of recession. Currency markets in particular have been marking down the US dollar relative to the pound, the euro and the yen.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Deflation Relative to What? / Economics / Deflation
By: Adam_Brochert
As the deflation versus inflation debate rages on, both sides present reasonable arguments that sound plausible. I am in the camp that believes stocks, commodities, corporate bonds and real estate have much further to fall. Now falling prices are not the same thing as deflation, but they are a visible symptom. To be honest, I am a pragmatist. I am not as concerned about getting my exact definitions right as I am understanding what to do with my savings.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Recession Ending, Celebrate Economic Growth in Third Quarter / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
We had been expecting that real economic growth would emerge in the fourth quarter of this year, coinciding with the celebrations of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. We now think that it might emerge, albeit, just barely, in the third quarter, in time for the Labor Day celebration - although labor will have little to celebrate. We arrive at this conclusion from observing some economic variables that typically signal the end of a recession. And these economic variables are subject to little, if any, revisions.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation is Over! / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry writes: There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.– Ludwig von Mises
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Global Economic Depression and Regional Wars - Part I / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
James Petras is Binghamton University, New York Professor Emeritus of Sociology. Besides his long and distinguished academic career, he's a noted figure on the left, a well-respected Latin American expert, and a longtime chronicler of the region' popular struggles. He's also a prolific author of hundreds of articles and dozens of books, most recently his new one titled, "Global Depression and Regional Wars" addressing America, Latin America and the Middle East.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
What Are the Prospects for the US Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: “The trade of governing has always been monopolized by the most ignorant and the most rascally individuals of mankind.” — Thomas Paine
The 10-year note auction yielded 3.73%. The bid to cover was 2.49 to 1 versus the average of the last ten auctions of 2.48 to 1. Indirect participation was 45.7% versus an average of 30%; we believe this is because foreign central banks are buying in behalf of the Fed via money they swapped with them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The Statistical Economic Recovery and Thoughts on the Housing Market / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
A Recovery Statisticians Can Love
A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market
Some Thoughts from Maine
A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening. This coming "recovery" is not going to feel like a typical one, and those expecting a "V"-shaped recovery are simply making projections from previous economic recoveries, which, based on the fundamentals, are not warranted. And of course, a few thoughts coming back from Maine are in order. There is a lot to cover, and this may take more than one letter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 14, 2009
Rising Exports, the Basis for a Sustained Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Hans_Wagner
For decades, consumer spending led the U.S. economy. As the U.S. consumer curtails their spending to replenish finances, they will not be leading the way to economic recovery this time. Rather, the U.S. will be looking to the rising export economy to provide the power behind the country’s growth in Gross Domestic Product.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Misguided Worries About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds reading about the threat of massive inflation looming on the horizon are asking "Where's the Inflationary Beef?" It's a good question too, so let's search far and wide for symptoms.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Peas In The Deflationary Economic Pod / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In the face of mounting job losses with the only real demand coming from cash for clunkers and other silly stimulus programs doomed to fail, it should not be surprising to anyone for retail sales to drop. Nonetheless, Bloomberg notes the following surprise: Sales Unexpectedly Decrease as Job Losses Mount.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Green Shoots Recovery Are a Mirage, Economy Will Deteriorate Further / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Moses_Kim
If there's one thing you can bank on, it's that the public will be controlled by emotional whims rather than rational judgment. I do my best to lay out the facts, and whenever possible, support my claims with hard data. When the characteristics of the the data change, my outlook will as well.