Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, July 07, 2009
The Passing of Billy Mays Will Boost My Personal Saving Rate / Economics / US Economy
This is meant as no disrespect to the family of Billy Mays. Rather, it is intended as utmost admiration of the man. My house and garage are full of the products - almost two of each product - that Billy Mays advertised on basic cable television. He was one of the best salespersons I have ever seen. I would purchase almost anything Billy Mays was selling.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
U.S. State Budget Gaps and Investment Implications / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
State budgets are a shambles. Sales taxes, corporate taxes, personal income taxes and other taxes are being raised all over the country. The budget problems and consequential taxes will impact municipal bond rates and default risk, and after-tax investment returns on many forms of investment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Credit Expansion, Crisis, and the Myth of the Saving Glut / Economics / Economic Theory
George Reisman writes: Readers who are already familiar with the nature of credit expansion and the concepts of standard money and fiduciary media should skip the first section. Readers who are also already familiar with the role of credit expansion and fiduciary media in generating the stock market and real estate bubbles should skip the second section as well and proceed directly to the third section "Evasion of Responsibility for the Bubbles."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2009
Inflation or Deflation, Make Sure You Get This One Right / Economics / Deflation
There are those who sweat over every decision, worrying about how it will affect their lives and investments. Then there is the school of thought that we should focus on the big decisions. I am of the latter school.
85% of investment returns are a result of asset class allocations and only 15% come from actually picking investment within the asset class. Getting the big picture right is critical. In this week's Outside the Box we look at a very well written essay about the biggest of all question in front of us today. Do we face deflation or inflation?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2009
Yes, We're Still in a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
In the words of Maxwell Smart…missed it by that much! The jobs report came in much worse than expected and forced investors to review their “green shoots” thesis and pushing down stocks by 200 points in the process. One of the more interesting points about the jobs data is in the past seven recession since WWII, this one has shown the greatest percentage loss of jobs and unless it bottoms right now, will be the longest decline in jobs, beating the ’73-’74 recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2009
No Amount of Economic Stimulus Will Work / Economics / Economic Stimulus
Economist Paul Krugman is back at it, whining for more stimulus. If you can stomach it, please consider What didn’t the vice president know?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2009
Is Inflation a Fact… Or Just an Opinion, Part2? / Economics / Inflation
Yesterday I outlined the basic arguments for why inflation is believed to have hit the market or will be soon. In a nutshell, inflationists look at the Fed’s money printing as shown by the US Monetary Base and claim that inflation must be just around the corner.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2009
Day of Reckoning for California and Ultimately for All of America / Economics / US Debt
Martin Weiss writes: This is a day of reckoning for California and, ultimately, for all of America.
Will our nation’s largest debtors meet their massive financial obligations? Or will many ultimately default?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 05, 2009
Is the Fed Predicting Economic Stagnation for the US? / Economics / US Economy
For sometime now I have been pointing out that things would be bad, not because I prefer gloom to joy but because the Fed's disgraceful monetary shenanigans over the years made the current situation inevitable. In the meantime, the profoundly ignorant Obama and his statist cronies are making things far worse. And what do we get from the Fed? Well, allow me to refer you to Janet Yellen, President of the San Francisco Fed, who opined that the US can look forward a very slow recovery marked by high unemployment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 04, 2009
Current Recession Is a Severe Credit Bust of Depression-Era Magnitude / Economics / Great Depression II
There's a big difference between inventory-driven recessions and credit-driven recessions. An inventory recession is caused by a mismatch between supply and demand. It's the result of overcapacity and under-utilization which can only work itself out over time as inventories are pared back and demand builds. Credit-driven recessions are a different story altogether. They typically last twice as long as and can precipitate financial crises. The current recession is a severe credit bust of Depression-era magnitude.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
Inflationary Crack-up Boom has Commenced in the G7 Economies! / Economics / Inflation
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. --Ludwig von Mises
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
A Message for Armchair Economists / Economics / Economic Theory
Betsy Hansen writes: At some point in our intellectual development, we libertarians are naturally drawn to study economics. I think this stems from the fact that we love to explore the forces which drive our world. Economics is, in a broad sense, the study of human cooperation. A solid understanding of economics enables us to see how and why our world looks and behaves as it does.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
The Keynesian System, the Economics of Illusion / Economics / Economic Theory
[This is the title essay of Hahn's The Economics of Illusion, his frontal attack on the Keynesian system. It is based on a lecture delivered at the Studiengesellschaft fur Wirtschaftspolitik, Zurich, Switzerland, September 12, 1947.]
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
U.S. Economy Economic Recovery Achilles Heel / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
BIG PICTURE – The much anticipated economic recovery is now fully discounted by the financial markets. Most strategists and economists seem to agree that the US economy is stabilising and will start to revive towards the end of the year. Interestingly, the ‘great depression’ hyperbole doing the rounds last autumn has now been replaced by the ‘green shoots’ hype. It seems as though everyone is spotting some kind of ‘green shoots’ somewhere in the economy. If one didn’t know any better, after reading the latest headlines in the media, one could easily get the impression that perhaps the geniuses in the financial community have now become experts in horticulture!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
Can China's Economy Prosper Without the U.S. Dollar? / Economics / China Currency Yuan
China ’s announcement overnight that it will allow companies to settle international trade claims in yuan shows how serious the Chinese authorities are about building a local currency market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 03, 2009
Is Still More Economic Stimulus Needed? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
It hasn’t been a good week for Wall Street’s ‘green shoots’ analogy. This week’s economic reports looked more like crop-killer than fertilizer, certainly not providing much support for the current popular wisdom that consumers will soon be spending us out of the recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2009
U.S. Economy Heading for Japan of the 1990's or Argentina 2002? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Introduction: The inflation / deflation debate in the US is still alive and well. In deflation camp, there is the rising star du-jour Nouriel Roubini and old timer Robert Prechter. They argue the debt collapse would cause price deflation and depress world economies for years to come. The inflation camp includes Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, who said on May 27 2009 that "I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation "
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 9.5%, Jobs Contract 18th Straight Month / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June Employment Report.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2009
U.S. First Country to Recover From Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
A recovery from the worldwide economic slump will occur in East Asia only after it has begun in the United States, the Singapore ambassador to the U.S. said Tuesday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Asia-Pacific Economies Grow As Developed Economies Wither / Economics / Asian Economies
Tony Sagami writes: The World Bank is a global financial institution that makes loans to developing countries for the stated purpose of reducing poverty.
It provides low-interest loans and interest-free grants for investments in education, health, public administration, infrastructure, financial and private-sector development, agriculture, and environmental and natural-resource management.
Read full article... Read full article...