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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

U.S. Economic GDP Growth Revised Higher to 5% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at an astounding +4.96% annualized rate, up an additional +1.07% from their prior estimate for the 3rd quarter and now up +0.37% from the already very healthy 4.59% annualized growth rate registered during the second quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Jaguar Inflation - A Layman's Explanation of Government Intervention / Economics / Inflation

By: EWI

I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject, so let's try one.

It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing production with tax money. To everyone's delight, it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Will the Malaysian Economy Risk another Financial Crisis in 2015? / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

If any of you can remember for the past few months our government has been engaging on a propaganda spree claiming that our economy is doing excellent and our budget deficit is on track hitting the 3% target. In addition it is also reported that our household sector is supported by sustained income growth and hence consumption. Our high level of international reserves, current account surplus, resilient domestic financial system and low level of external debt helps reinforce the strength of our economy. Bank Negara even forecast a GDP growth between 5.0 to 5.5% for fiscal 2015? Is our economy really that resilient and solid? This article aims to dissect the reported facts above and also at the same time gauge the performance of the Malaysian economy.

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Economics

Monday, December 22, 2014

The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

― Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray
“There is a current set of delusions that is powerful and dangerous: that monetary debasement can be infinitely pursued without consequences; that the financial system is now solid and sound; that the low volatility and high prices of stocks, high-end real estate and bonds are real; that bonds are a safe haven; and that large financial institutions which get into trouble in the future can be unwound in a much safer way than they could be in 2008."
-Paul Singer

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Economics

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Really, Greece Debt Crisis Again? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Rubino

The Greek financial/political crisis is becoming an annual event. For a sense of just how long this unfortunate little country has been struggling to survive under the relative sound money regime of the eurozone, here’s a Greek Crisis Timeline that CNN published in 2011. Even back then the pattern of near-collapse followed by temporary respite had been repeating for seven years.

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Economics

Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Social Function of Economic Inequality / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Mark Tovey writes: The unhampered market creates economic inequality. Free marketeers tend to concede this fact as an unfortunate defect in an otherwise laudable system. F.A. Hayek, however, in a chapter from The Constitution of Liberty, argued that inequality is fundamental to a society's progress. Hayek explained how, by purchasing luxuries unimaginable to the average man, the rich unwittingly perform a vital public service. Indeed so fundamental is inequality to economic progress that egalitarian societies, Hayek concluded, would be faced with no choice but to deliberately re-inflict upon themselves the very class systems they had sought to escape, should they wish to achieve well-directed economic advancement.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

An Unorthodox Solution to the World’s Economic Problems / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

We currently face a monumental dilemma. How do we extract ourselves from all this excessive debt without crashing the world economy? There is a solution which is totally counterintuitive: print even more money. In other words, to get out of the deep, deep hole we are in, dig even deeper.

It is called the Chicago plan. With a stroke of a pen, money would be substituted for debt, without the negative consequences of printing money. Banking would be restructured so that it never again leads to boom and bust cycles, and most debt, public and private, could be cancelled.  It’s basically a “one time” get out of jail card for the world economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how 2015 will unfold. In forecasting US growth, I wrote that we really need to understand the relationships between the boom in energy production on the one hand and employment and overall growth in the US on the other. The old saw that falling oil prices are like a tax cut and are thus a net benefit to the US economy and consumers is not altogether clear to me. I certainly hope the net effect will be positive, but hope is not a realistic basis for a forecast. Let’s go back to two paragraphs I wrote last week:

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Economics

Monday, December 15, 2014

Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

At the prodding of an NFTRH subscriber who was combing through old issues, I went back and read NFTRH 7, from November of 2008 and was struck by how things have really not changed in the last 6 years of non-stop inflationary policy; they have intensified and gone global, but the mechanics have not changed.

The current inflation operation is failing world-wide, with the US holding out for now.  As pertains to the gold and gold mining case mentioned in the article below (as we got hyper bullish in Q4 2008), things are moving much more slowly now.  The current backdrop is a different animal than the 2008 deflationary impulse, but its potential is to much more wide-ranging and ultimately destructive.

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Economics

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Deflation Is Winning, and Central Banks are Running Scared / Economics / Deflation

By: Adam_Taggart

Remember in the early part of the last decade, long before he was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke penned an article that caught widespread public attention entitled, "Deflation: It Can't Happen Here" ?

Bernanke was referring to the deflationary pressures Japan had been dealing with for more than a decade. In the article, Bernanke laid out a game plan for how the Fed would respond if the US ever faced deflationary pressures. His miracle antidote for battling deflation? Printing money. Lots of it.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Can The Euro Zone Match China’s Growth Rate in 2015? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Submissions

Brett Chatz writes: The ECB is preparing to tackle stubbornly low inflation as the Euro Zone faces mounting challenges moving into 2015.

When the European Central Bank met recently, Mario Draghi emphasised precisely how important it is for the ECB to keep inflation under control. However, the last time the ECB achieved its inflation target was over two years ago. Since then, inflation has been dropping at a steady pace and now stands at close to 0. To combat historically low inflation across the Eurozone, Draghi wants to take aggressive steps by way of a quantitative easing policy. The measures likely to be taken by the European Central Bank will not be dissimilar to the QE policies adopted by the Fed in the US. These will include wide-ranging bond purchases to increase the money supply to accelerate economic growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

U.S. Economy Data Driven or Driven Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Peter_Schiff

There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

How to Profit from Europe's Secret Economic "Plan B" / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: As the European Union debates yet a third bailout for Greece, revelations about secret plans by some Eurozone members tell an even more intriguing story.

During the depths of the European sovereign crisis, when Greece was inches from exiting the zone, others chose to not sit idly by.

Instead, two member nations were surreptitiously preparing for a possible Eurozone breakup.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

U.S. Economy Post-‘Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gary_Tanashian

Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?

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Economics

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Does Europe Have Demand Deficiency Syndrome? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Frank_Shostak

In his Financial Times article “The curse of weak global demand,” Martin Wolf writes that today’s most important economic illness is chronic demand deficiency syndrome. Wolf argues that despite massive monetary pumping by the central banks of the US and the EMU, and the policy of lowering interest rates to around zero, both the US and the EMU, economies have continued to struggle.

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Economics

Saturday, December 06, 2014

Why the US Economy Is Temporarily Outperforming, In Two Charts / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

Today’s US employment report was the best in years. 300,000+ new jobs, rising wages, fewer people dropping out of the workforce, the whole package. Very hopeful. And also curious, since the rest of the world seems to be moving in the other direction. Consider:

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Economics

Friday, December 05, 2014

Central Banks Battling Deflation at Any Cost / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian writes: When I was in junior high, my friend Scott had this Billy Crystal tape that we passed back and forth to each other. I still like Billy Crystal, but let’s just say he was truly hilarious when I was 13 back in 1987.

He had this routine about old codgers who used to tell you how hard life was in the old days.

“We had no air…” he’d say, in an old man voice. “No food. We ate wool coats and we were happy.”

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Economics

Saturday, November 29, 2014

US Unemployment At Lowest Rate Since 2009 / Economics / Unemployment

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.

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Economics

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as I write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.

It shows us the huge extent to which consumer spending is falling, how much poorer people have become as stock markets set records. It also shows us how desperate producing nations have become, who have seen a third of their often principal source of revenue fall away in a few months’ time. Nigeria was first in line to devalue its currency, others will follow suit.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing / Economics / Demographics

By: Mike_Shedlock

A New York Fed research paper wonders What's Keeping Millennials at Home? Is it Debt, Jobs, or Housing?

The paper says "it's a mystery" why the housing recovery did not have a bigger impact on millennials living at home.

The research paper, written by Zachary Bleemer, Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw notes correlations to debt, jobs and housing.

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