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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, August 31, 2007

US Monetary Data is Not Painting a Pretty Picture / Economics / Money Supply

By: David_Urban

Well, MZM and M2 have begun to take on a parabolic looks as the compounded annual rate of change increased to 9.7 and 6.4%, respectively, from a year ago. MZM growth is giving me the chills just looking at the chart. This does not look good from an anti-inflation perspective. You can say that the helicopter drops have started. Take it all in now because when the party ends you will not want to be around for the cleanup.

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Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

The War on Working Americans - Part II / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

This article was written to assess the state of working America in the run-up to Labor Day, 2007. Organized labor today is severely weakened following decades of government and business duplicity to crush it. Part I reviewed the labor movement's rise in the 19th century and subsequent decline post-WW II and especially in the last three decades. Hope arose for some change in the Democrat-led 100th Congress. A weak effort emerged, but Senate Republicans killed it.

Organized labor is struggling to remain relevant and claw its way back. The enormous obstacles it faces are reviewed below as well as the condition of working Americans today in a globalized world affecting their lives and welfare heading "south" in the "land of opportunity" offering pathetically little.

The Loss of High-Paying Jobs from Outsourcing Under Globalized Market-Based Rules Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

US / Mexico : Failed System and Failed State / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

TRIBUTE TO KURT RICHEBACHER. He was a valued colleague and an inspiration to my newsletter. Our week together in Cannes will forever be etched in my memory.

Amusement is my response when other writers call me or my work ‘extremist' as Claude Cormier recently has. He is a topnotch analyst out of Quebec , whose work is respected and admired. He himself cites extreme events, like comparisons between the United States and Argentina , in the decimation of the middle class amidst prolific inflation and financial sector foul play. Labels are not kind, but my job is to analyze the extreme situation on a host of fronts. To be honest, the label is taken here as an extreme compliment, since it means my perceptions are squarely on target. Additional extreme observations can be detailed, which points to systemic breakdown. The US financial system shows signs of failure, the USEconomy suffering deeply in association. If one were to list the extreme events and factors in the last few years, reaching a climax nowadays, the recitation would flow over into several dozen pages.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Result of 35 Years of a Paper Global Monetary System / Economics / Money Supply

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I’ll skip the thousand words – the picture says it all.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Worst of All Policies - Federal Reserve Policy Blunders / Economics / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

"To lend a great deal, and yet not give the public confidence...is the worst of all policies." - Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street  

"HISTORY PROVES that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse," wrote Ben Bernanke in Foreign Policy magazine, way back in October 2000.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Chinese Consumers Show No Sign of Slowing! / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Tony Sagami write: Just when U.S. investors were breathing a sigh of relief based on last week's uptick in new home sales, they got smacked again yesterday with far bleaker news on the larger market for existing homes:

• Another decline in sales  …

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

Bottlenecks and Monetary Policies: More Economic Fallacies that Damage Economies / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

The cry is going up from our economic commentariat that the Australian economy is running into “production constraints” and that this in turn will drive up interest rates. It is also argued that this situation is likely to be compounded by the inflationary effects of rising wages. This nonsense, readers, is what passes for economic wisdom, not only in the Australian media but also the world-wide media. Listen out for the same arguments appearing more and more frequently in the US as the Bush boom gets close to its economic economic denoument, unless the Fed unexpectly slaps on the monetary brakes .

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

US Dollar RIP / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The call for more money to fix the financial markets comes just as global inflation is beginning to cause real mischief..."

EVEN IN DEATH, it seems, you're no longer safe from the iniquities of inflation.

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

The US Trade Deficit and Chinese Surpluses: Economics v Paranoia / Economics / US Dollar

By: Gerard_Jackson

Now that the recent turmoil in international markets has subsided for now attention is returning to the sinister machinations of Beijing and its silent war against the US economy. It is held by some -- in fact, by far too many -- that China is using currency manipulation to deliberately deindustrialise the US and force its manufacturers to export jobs, as evidenced by the US trade deficit. Moreover, China is threatening to use its dollar reserves to sink the US economy.

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Economics

Friday, August 24, 2007

US Recession, It's a Shoe In / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The current economic debate really boils down to one essential question: "Will there be a recession?" To me, the question has about as much vitality as debating whether Roger Clemens will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. (With over 300 wins and more strikeouts than any other pitcher besides Nolan Ryan, the Rocket is a sure thing for Cooperstown ). Similarly, a recession is not a question of “if” but merely of “when”.

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Economics

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Don’t Underestimate the U.S. Consumer? The Global Economy Is Strong? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

These are two common refrains from mainstream economists who never foresaw a recession until it already had been declared by the NBER. Today we received some information that ought to give these mainstreamers pause for thought.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Watching Bubblevision and reading the Wall Street Journal (see August 7 edition, " Don't Panic About the Credit Market ," David Malpass), I keep hearing that what happens on Wall Street doesn't materially affect Main Street. I respectfully disagree. Main Street is more dependent on Wall Street than ever before.

Chart 1 shows the history of one simple definition of household surpluses and deficits. This definition subtracts the sum of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Residential Investment Expenditures (RIE) from Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Both PCE and RIE are "line items" in the Gross Domestic Product accounts. RIE is essentially the value-added in the private residential real estate sector - new construction of homes, including remodeling of existing homes, and the value added by real estate brokers. DPI is equal to all income currently earned by households, including employer contributions to pension funds, interest on investments, dividends on corporate equities and rents on property less taxes paid by households.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

China's Economic Blackmail / Economics / China Economy

By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn

Massive amounts of Chinese imports are threatening public health and safety. Many food and consumer products pose risks. Lead in children's toys and jewelry. Toxins in foods for pets and humans, and in toothpaste. Unsafe automobile tires. Many prescription drugs made with few safeguards. The list is endless. The federal government is not safeguarding American citizens through thorough testing of imports.

Why?

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Economics

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

It's Not the Housing Market That Threatens the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

The reported collapse of the mortgage market has clearly spooked markets and the great majority of analysts. We are even told that this financial ‘disaster' is rippling through Europe and Asia, forcing their central banks to pump up the money supply. But belief that the bursting of a housing boom could send the US economy into recession is, in my opinion, a complete fallacy.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Can China's Central Bank Wait Until August 25, 2008 to Rein In Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Chinese government reported today that Chinese consumer inflation in July reached 5.6% on a year-over-year basis - its highest rate since February 1997. As the chart below shows, Chinese consumer inflation has been trending higher throughout 2007. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Chinese central government has implemented a series of measures this year in an attempt to rein in consumer price as well as asset price inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Japanese Q2 Real GDP Growth Downshifts Sharply as Export Growth Slows / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

After growing at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, Japanese real GDP growth slowed to only 0.5% in the second quarter. To be sure, domestic demand growth slowed - from 1.5% to 0.4%. But, as the first chart below shows, a rising percentage of Japanese real GDP is accounted for by its exports. For example, in Q2:2003, real exports accounted for 11.5% of Japanese real GDP. By Q2:2007, this ratio had risen to 15.3%.

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Economics

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Making Money vs Creating Wealth - Migrating to New Energy Paradigms Part 5 / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Brian_Bloom

Making money is not the same as creating wealth. The objective of this article is to facilitate an understanding of this deceptively simple statement which, in turn, will facilitate an understanding of the dimensions of the problems now being faced by humanity. Hopefully, this will lead to a realization that these problems – most of them – are soluble within a relatively short space of time.

Perhaps this anecdote will help to set a mental framework:

A long, long time ago I was number two ‘opening bat' for my school's First XI cricket team. I played sport six days a week in those days and had great hand/eye co-ordination. In my mind I can still recall the pleasure of opening my shoulders and smacking a loose ball for six over the bowler's head. The ball would connect with the “sweet spot” of the bat and soar into the bleachers above the sight screen at the far end of the field. It didn't happen often – but when it did, wow!

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Economics

Friday, August 10, 2007

Real Estate and Asset Deflation : The Ballgame is Over / Economics / Deflation

By: Steve_Moyer

When those of us at www.PonderThis.net started writing about "the coming asset deflation" in May of 2005, my, my, did our mailboxes fill up with, "Boy, are you ever wrong. The Fed will make sure these bubbles go on forever, stupid!" emails. Still, we had our small, rather quaint following of "fans."

And a motley group we were indeed!

As we developed our argument and saw our stuff get increasingly picked up by financial websites around the world, our "real estate deflation/credit contraction/liquidity crunch will sink all boats" theme took hold and the overwhelming majority of respondents began moving into our camp. Now we receive a stream of emails from readers demanding an update, wanting to know where things will go from here, and/or trumpeting their decisions to get out of (name almost any asset class) while the gettin' was good. Most now think that asset deflation has taken hold. In two years' time, the worm has certainly turned.

That's probably because, um, for the record -- we were right.

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Economics

Friday, August 10, 2007

You Know Things Are Bad When The WSJ Trots Out Malpass and Wesbury In The Same Week / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

This headline is from an email I received today from a well-known financial journalist noted for her proclivity for identifying "naked emperors." I will address Malpass' errors in another commentary. But in this short note I want to talk to Wesbury's op-ed piece in today's WSJ, "Fair but Unbalanced".

Before countering some of Wesbury's almost perennial happy-talk, let me acknowledge a bit of truth in his essay. The financial media, especially the broadcast financial media, do like to "spice it up," akin to professional wrestling, by having bulls and bears duke it out. After all, as Wesbury indicates, it's all about ratings and ad dollars. Sound bites sell, not analysis. But that's the extent of our agreement.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

US Economic Growth in Domestic Private Final Demand : Its Falling - Can It Get Up? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

If the housing recession is not spreading to other parts of the economy, how do you account for the fact that growth in real domestic private final demand is slowing? Real domestic private final demand includes the following line items from the gross domestic product (GDP) accounts: personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment expenditures and residential investment expenditures. Real domestic private final demand represented about 87% of real GDP in the past five years. Chart 1 shows the growth in real domestic private final demand in recent years – on both a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis and year-over-year basis.

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