Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Why Are We Still Paying Attention To Chinese Economic Numbers? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
A few years ago, economist Nouriel Roubini was explaining to a reporter why Chinese economic data couldn’t be trusted. He noted that it takes the US weeks and sometimes months to pull together and process the information necessary to produce a complex stat like GDP, and wondered how China, with its far bigger, less developed (and therefore harder to measure) population was able to do it in considerably less time. He concluded that they’re just making up their numbers.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Why This Economic Slump Has Legs / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We’ve only really been in two weeks of trading in the new year, things are looking pretty bad to say the least, so predictably the press are asking -and often answering- questions about when the slump will be over. Rebound, recovery, the usual terminology. When will we get back to growth?
For me personally, but that’s just me, that last question sounds a bit more stupid every single time I hear and read it. Just a bit, but there’s been a lot of those bits, more than I care to remember. Luckily, the answer is easy. The slump will not be over for a very long time, there will be no rebound or recovery, and please stop talking about a return to growth unless you can explain what you want to grow into.
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Sunday, January 17, 2016
U.S. Economy - The Chart that Explains Everything! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Why is the economy barely growing after seven years of zero rates and easy money? Why are wages and incomes sagging when stock and bond prices have gone through the roof? Why are stocks experiencing such extreme volatility when the Fed increased rates by a mere quarter of a percent?
It’s the policy, stupid. And here’s the chart that explains exactly what the policy is.
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Saturday, January 16, 2016
Themes, Dreams, and Schemes - Global Economy at Stall Speed, Monetary Velocity and Interest Rates / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
First I must offer an apology of sorts for being in absentia for an extended period of time. I would imagine that those of you who struggle to keep up with the demands of work, family, and everyday stresses understand this, but I apologize anyway. There are links on the blog to the Liberty Talk Radio appearances I’ve made over the past few months just to prove that I’m still vertical. Graham joins me once again and as always has some interesting takeaways.
Friday, January 15, 2016
U.S. Consumers Drowning Their Sorrows At The Bar / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
Month after month I watch as the MSM mouthpieces try to spin declining consumer spending in a positive light. They are practically out of excuses. They are befuddled, because month after month they report “awesome” job gains and can’t understand why all these gainfully employed Americans aren’t buying shit they don’t need like they used to. These faux journalists, spouting propaganda for their ruling class bosses, are willfully ignorant of the fact the job gains are in low paying part-time jobs and the fact that Obamacare and record high rents are sapping any discretionary income households would use to buy stuff.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
The American Dream is Dying But it Can be Revived / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long follow-up to their discussion last month of the puzzle of the falling US Civilian Labor Participation Rate. In this session they tackle the issues associated with "Universal Basic Income" which the public narrative has begun to 'offer up' as a solution.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Dow Down Nearly 1,500 Points This Year While Obama Claims U.S. Economy Is Great / Economics / US Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
America, the individual triumph of millions of individuals through the generations has now become the “United State” and like any fascist or communist dictatorship, lies have increased as freedom has decreased. Many huddled around their TV sets (although in decreasing numbers – which is the real hope!) and heard a concentrated dose of untruths last night from the Great Leader for the “State of the Union”.
I didn’t watch. Politicians make me sick to my stomach and the sight of an entire throng of welfare-recipients (Congress) cheering for minutes on end for a man who has never held a real job in his life as he reads from his teleprompter is too much of a chore.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Dallas Fed's Kaplan: Market Swings May Not Reflect U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg's Michael McKee that the stock market swings may not reflect the underlying economy, and officials shouldn't overreact.
On Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>" this morning, Kaplan said: "This has been a very tough start to the year. It says a lot though about the turmoil in the markets in China....You've got to watch these market moves, but you've got to realize that they may or may not reflect what's going on with the underlying economy in the United States. I'd say you've got to watch it, and understand it. But not over read or over react."
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016
This Current Spending Cycle Boom Will Not Continue / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In November of 2001 I was on an investment panel with three other people, including David Tice of Prudent Bear fame. He was riding high because, in addition to the recession of 2001, the markets had sold off after 9/11. His fund was doing well and he saw nothing but bad news for the economy and for him in the years ahead.Relying on demographics, I told him and the audience that America’s economy would rebound as consumers spent more, but would then suffer a terrible blow between 2008 and 2010.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Shipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world. He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.
This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.
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Monday, January 11, 2016
Economic Recession, Could the Unthinkable Happen in 2016? / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Clif_Droke
The most important question investors should be asking at this point isn’t whether the secular bull market which began in 2009 is over, but whether continued equity market weakness in 2016 will lead to the unthinkable, namely an economic recession. A recession in 2016 has been deemed virtually impossible by most mainstream economists, so much so that all discussion of this possibility has evaporated. And while most U.S. economic data categories are still admittedly strong, the persistent weakness under the surface of the equity market over the last several months demands that the topic be reexamined.
Monday, January 11, 2016
The Shrinking Global Economy, In Three Charts / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Regular contributor Michael Pollaro offers three more charts which tell a story that's both disturbing and apparently misunderstood by a lot of mainstream analysts.
The US trade deficit (exports minus imports) has been getting smaller. Since a trade deficit subtracts from GDP growth, a shrinking deficit will, other things being equal, produce a bigger, faster-growing economy (that's the mainstream take).
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Saturday, January 09, 2016
U.S.December Payrolls: ‘Back End’ Still Strong; a Closer Look / Economics / Employment
By: Gary_Tanashian
It is important to distinguish the ‘back end’ from the ‘front end’ of the economy or else all you end up with hype emanating from the financial sphere every time an economic data release comes out. For example, I was critical of Martin Armstrong’s post, Is the recession Starting? in a rebuttal post, Armstrong 3+ Decades Late on Manufacturing because Marty’s post not only brought back some jaw droppingly old fashioned concepts about US manufacturing (JiT and automation replacing labor) but it focused only on the ‘front end’ of the economy, affirming the “ECM” in a short info-blurb.
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Thursday, January 07, 2016
Emerging Market Currencies Hit the Skids / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: AnyOption
Investors, equities traders and global analysts were shocked when the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index opened to a 7% decline on Monday, 4 January 2015. That alarm bells sounded and markets were shut down is testament to the precarious predicament of Chinese equities. As the world's second largest economy, China weakness has a devastating effect on the fortunes of developing countries and developed countries alike. Such was the negative sentiment around the sharp declines in Chinese equities, mutual funds and foreign funds (with an emphasis on Asian stocks), that global bourses also moved south. The situation is being compounded by sharp declines in oil prices, with oil futures for February setting fresh new lows.
Wednesday, January 06, 2016
ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs? Why 2016 Will Shock to the Downside! / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs?
I expect monthly jobs reports in 2016 will shock to the downside. Before I list all the reasons, here's an interesting chart that suggests manufacturing ISM is a leading indicator of jobs.
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Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Are We Headed for Another Economic Bust? / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
On Wednesday December 16, 2015, Federal Reserve Bank policymakers raised the federal funds rate target by 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent for the first time since December 2008. There is the possibility that the target could be lifted gradually to 1.25 percent by December next year.
Monday, January 04, 2016
Technical Analysis of the Corn Commodity Market / Economics / Agricultural Commodities
By: EconMatters
Corn Market 2015
I have been watching corn prices lately as they are getting low enough to at least pique my interest into looking at a market that usually just gets bypassed with the rest of my agricultural futures prices tab on my trading platform, more out of habit than having anything in particular against the agricultural markets. The March 2016 Futures contract was down about 16% in 2015 along with most of the commodity space on fund outflows, a weak China, and a strong dollar.
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Friday, January 01, 2016
China's Security of Supply / Economics / China Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Consider:
- There is a slowing of production and dwindling of reserves at many of the world's largest mines.
- All the oz's or pounds are never recovered from a mine - they simply becomes too expensive to recover.
- The pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased in the mining industry.
- Discoveries are smaller and in less accessible regions.
- Mineralogy & metallurgy is more complicated making extraction of metals from the mined ore increasingly more complex and expensive.
- Mining is cyclical which makes mining companies reluctant to spend on exploration and development.
- A looming skills shortage
- There is no substitute for many metals except other metals - plastic piping is one exception.
- Metal markets are small so speculation is a larger factor.
- There hasn't been a new technology shift in mining for decades - heap leach and open pit mining come to mind but they are both decades old innovation.
- Country risk - resource extraction companies, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe producing countries. The move out of these "safe haven" countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
- Lack of recognition for population growth, growing middle class w/disposable incomes and urbanization as on-going demand growth factors.
- Climate change.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Why Austrian Investing Is Important In The Era Of State Imposed Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: GoldSilverWorlds
We are living in extreme times. When it comes to investing, the economy and markets, the extreme monetary policies of central banks all over the world should be top of mind of every investor.
To make our point, we refer to the 3 following charts that readers know by now … But it always helps to put things in perpsective. Our focus here is on the time period as of 1971 which will likely go in history books as the era of the “Great Monetary Experiment” (or something alike).
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Sunday, December 27, 2015
Yet Another Reason To Invest in Vietnam and Pakistan / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Submissions
Dylan Waller writes: Vietnam and Pakistan’s automotive industries are both poised for substantial growth, and consequently present a flurry of investment opportunities. Both countries have been positive outliers in Asia, due to superior stock market performance, higher economic growth, and also due to the relatively lower FX risks. As both countries begin their transition to emerging markets, the automotive industry in particular represents a strategic outlet for investors to profit from the superior investment landscape that is present in both countries.