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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The U.S. Jobs Market is Gaining Traction / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

Claims Data

The Jobless claims data came out on Thursday and the trend is still in place and bodes well for the May Employment Report coming out next Friday as jobless claims fell sharply in the May 24 week, down 27,000 to 300,000. The 4-week average is down a significant 11,250 to a new recovery low of 311,500. Continuing claims are also down, falling 17,000 in data for the May 17 week to a new recovery low of 2.631 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 to 2.655 million, also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, also at a recovery low, came in at 2.0 percent. Notice a pattern here, new recovery low, new recovery low, and new recovery low.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

Fed's Lacker Warns U.S. Inflation Is Accelerating / Economics / Inflation

By: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told Bloomberg Radio host Kathleen Hays on "The Hays Advantage" today that inflation may not need to be too fast before the Fed raises the main interest rate. Lacker said, "I don't see us having to wait until inflation is actually getting to a place we don't like."

Lacker said, "We've seen inflation bottom out; I think it's pretty conclusive it's bottomed out in the last couple of quarters. And there's some tentative signs that a move back towards, a gradual move back towards 2 percent is in train, and I'm hopeful that that will play out over the year."

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

U.S. Economic Growth BEA Revised GDP Sharply Lower to -1% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -0.99% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down over 3.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013, and it is now more than 5% lower than the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter of 2013.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Impending Economic Downturns and the New Skyscraper Curse / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mark_Thornton

From CNN to Barron’s to Le Monde, Mark Thornton has been featured as an authority on how record-setting skyscrapers signal impending economic downturns. Last month, Dr. Thornton spoke with us about the Skyscraper Index and the Skyscraper Curse.

Mises Institute: The Skyscraper Index, which shows a correlation between the construction of the world’s tallest buildings and economic busts, was created by economist Andrew Lawrence in 1999. In 2007, you used the index with Austrian business cycle theory to identify the economic downturn that followed. How does Austrian business cycle theory explain the index?

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Iran Economy Stable but Miserable / Economics / Iran

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since Hassan Rouhani assumed the presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran in August of last year, the economic outlook for Iran has improved. When Rouhani took office, he promised three things: to curb the inflation which had become rampant under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to stabilize Iran's currency (the Rial), and to start talks to potentially try and end the sanctions which have battered Iran since 2010. Rouhani has delivered on each of these promises. From this, one might assume that the Iranian economy, and the Iranian people, are headed towards better times.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Piketty's 'Capital in the 21st Century' Book Envy Problem / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_Schiff

There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally. In fact, the Piketty phenomenon (the economic equivalent to Beatlemania) has in some ways become a bigger story than the ideas themselves. However, the book's popularity is not at all surprising when you consider that its central premise: how radical wealth redistribution will create a better society, has always had its enthusiastic champions (many of whom instigated revolts and revolutions). What is surprising, however, is that the absurd ideas contained in the book could captivate so many supposedly intelligent people.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Why Keynesians Should Not be so Careless with Terminology / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Should we print, not print? Stimulate, not stimulate? Is austerity the right or wrong policy? Is government spending or printing effective? If we ask two economists these questions, we will likely get three opinions for each question. Economists seem confused, yet these questions are more important today than ever. Where does this confusion come from? Doesn’t economic theory give us clear cut answers? It does, but poor terminology and a lack of focus have muddied the waters. Many macroeconomic disagreements can be elucidated with a better understanding of the role played by holding cash, or hoarding, in economics.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

The Cost of Government Is Higher Than You Think / Economics / Government Spending

By: MISES

Gary M. Galles writes: “Look what I did for you!” When our children were small, my wife and I got many gifts from them accompanied with those words (including most of our refrigerator art and many things that still adorn our Christmas trees), in search of approval and encouragement.

While that process was an endearing part of parenting, I have been struck by a far less endearing parallel to public servants. In a similar way, they are always rolling out some new plan or program “for you,” in search of accolades and votes. However, unlike our children, what they claim to have created is frequently misleading to the point of rank dishonesty, because they present the benefits of their panaceas as far greater than they really are and the costs as far less than they really are. And a substantial part of that political overselling involves overlooked crowding-out effects.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

In a Flash, China Economy Looks Strong / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

If you want to know where the world economy is headed, there is one number that I believe investors should focus on: the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Last week, the preliminary flash PMI for May came in at 49.7, beating Bloomberg’s consensus of 48.3.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Just How Weak is the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported that Q1 GDP was only 0.1% in the United States. Most of that anemic number was blamed on worse-than-usual weather. But it should be noted that if our government accurately accounted for inflation, it would be clear to all that economic growth didn't just stall at the start of 2014; but rather it contracted sharply. And if our economy can be thrown into a tailspin by a few snow storms, it is an economy that simply has not recovered from the Great Recession--which supposedly ended five years ago.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Natural Disasters Don’t Increase Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Hurricane season is nearly upon us, and every time a hurricane strikes, television and radio commentators and would-be economists are quick to proclaim the growth-boosting consequences of the vicissitudes of nature. Of course, if this were true, why wait for the next calamity? Let’s create one by bulldozing New York City and marvel at the growth-boosting activity engendered. Destroying homes, buildings, and capital equipment will undoubtedly help parts of the construction industry and possibly regional economies, but it is a mistake to conclude it will boost overall growth.

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Economics

Monday, May 26, 2014

U.S. Retail Economic Death Rattle Grows Louder / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

The definition of death rattle is a sound often produced by someone who is near death when fluids such as saliva and bronchial secretions accumulate in the throat and upper chest. The person can’t swallow and emits a deepening wheezing sound as they gasp for breath. This can go on for two or three days before death relieves them of their misery. The American retail industry is emitting an unmistakable wheezing sound as a long slow painful death approaches.

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Economics

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Cartels and Subsidies in Canadian Agriculture / Economics / Market Manipulation

By: MISES

Predrag Rajsic writes: Canada, a federal state consisting of 13 federal units — ten provinces and three territories — has a relatively long history of agricultural policy. While sometimes similar to American agricultural policies, there are key differences with Canadian agriculture that may help illustrate the economic costs of intervention in differing economies.

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Economics

Saturday, May 24, 2014

Eurozone on Edge of a knife! - Countdown to Crisis? Yes or No? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Ty_Andros

Europe is caught in the cross hairs of the exports of deflation from Japan and China. Delighted by the support to sovereign Bomb er bond markets, dogged by the too high euro from the capital flows and cursed by the lack of government, banking, regulatory and tax reform. So the debt spirals continue and the economic collapse rolls on. Anyone familiar with the Eurozone knows the Euro is a political project first and a practical exercise second. This week's Financial times details this in all its gory detail, detailing how Eurozone elites toppled Governments in Italy and Greece during the heat of the crisis. It is all about gathering POLITICAL power in exchange for money printed out of thin air which rarely if ever arrives.

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Economics

Friday, May 23, 2014

U.S. Federal Reserve See No Evil / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

In this week's release of the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come. In order to make such a bold statement, Fed economists not only had to ignore the current data, but discount the likelihood that their current stimulus will put further upward pressure on prices that are already rising.

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Economics

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Problems Associated with the End of the Third Industrial Revolution And Stock Market Indices / Economics / Global Economy

By: Wim_Grommen

1 INTRODUCTION

Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so-called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation. In this paper I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization. When we consider the characteristics of the phases of a social transformation we may find ourselves at the end of what might be called the third industrial revolution. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years).

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Economics

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Is Not Japan Or Europe / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

There has been a trend of late to compare European and Japanese Bond yields to that of the United States and England so I think it necessary to define some large flaws in these comparisons.

Japan Comparison

Let us start with Japan, Japan has an aging demographic, little immigration, very limited natural resources, and have not been a major player in anything other than heavy industry specific nuclear applications and autos since the mid-1980s.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

The Successor to Keynes - Capital in the Twenty-First Century / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Casey_Research

By Jeff Thomas, International Man

Europe is abuzz with Capital in the Twenty-First Century by French economist Thomas Piketty, released in Europe in March of this year and now a best-seller. It has since crossed the Atlantic and is already the number-one best-seller for booksmith Amazon. It has been called a “blockbuster” of a book, and many reviewers believe that it has the ability to revolutionise the study of economics.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Echoes of 1937 in the Current U.S. Economic Cycle / Economics / US Economy

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: It is not too early to ask how the present US business cycle expansion, already more than five years old, will end. The history of the last great US monetary experiment in “quantitative easing” (QE) from 1934-7 suggests that the end could be violent. Autumn 1937 featured one of the largest New York stock market crashes ever accompanied by the descent of the US economy into the notorious Roosevelt Recession. Should we take comfort from the fact that Friedman and Schwartz, in their epic monetary history, claim to have discovered the policy error by the Federal Reserve which was responsible for the 1937 denouement. And that today’s Fed officials are adamant about having learned their lesson? The short answer is no.

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2014

How Fractional Reserves and Inflation Cause Economic Inequality / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Andreas Marquart writes: Mises Institute:How would you translate your new book’s title into English?

Andreas Marquant: I would like to say The State Causes the Poverty It Later Claims to Solve. This is the title of my article on mises.org last December. An even better title could be The Austrian Answer to Thomas Piketty.

MI: Your book addresses the issue of income inequality. Is income inequality a bad thing?

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