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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, June 06, 2014

The Slope Of Hope Economy And The Persistence Of History / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Faith Based Slope of Hope
Writing on the website The Slope of Hope, June 4, Tim Wright in 'The Persistence of Memory' said that: “....honestly, I don’t have visions of a group of thirty rich men sitting around a gigantic table at the top of a skyscraper, smoking cigars, chortling villainously and plotting humanity’s path. I do, however, firmly believe that the central bankers and political leaders of the largest countries were shocked at what happened late in 2008 and vowed Never Again”.

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Economics

Thursday, June 05, 2014

Why Asian Economies are Faltering? Case Study : Malaysia / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Malaysia’s debt fuelled economy on steroids was the result of Bank Negara’s policy of low interest rates causing abundant availability of credit. To avert the economy from free falling credit expansion measures are taken to stabilize the economy. Economic growth as measured by the GDP is now a function of Government and private consumer spending financed by the credit expansion or put it simply ‘debts’. In the short run this might help mitigate the pain associated with a slowing economy such as a recession. Preventing a recession also means preventing the economy from performing its natural task on rebalancing such as getting rid of excesses accumulated along the way. One of the side effects of excesses is the inflating of assets prices to bubble levels. As a result we have various bubbles blown in the stock market, real estate, bonds and futures market in Malaysia.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Why Central Bank Stimulus Cannot Bring Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: MISES

Patrick Barron writes: Today every central bank on the planet is printing money by the bucket loads in an attempt to stimulate their economies to escape velocity and a sustainable recovery. They are following Keynesian dogma that increasing aggregate demand will spur an increase in employment and production. So far all that these central banks have managed to do is inflate their own balance sheets and saddle their governments with debt. But make no mistake, central banks are not about to cease their confidence in the concept of insufficient aggregate demand. In fact, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is considering imposing negative interest rates to force money out of savings accounts and into the spending stream. Such an action is fully consistent with Keynesian dogma, so other central bankers will be impelled by the failure of their previous actions to follow suit.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

The Federal Reserve versus Hyman Minsky / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The Fed itself has stated many times over the past years that it intends to keep interest rates low. And now it starts complaining about low volatility. It looks like Yellen et al want to have their cake and eat it too. Perhaps they should have paid a little more attention to Hyman Minsky. Who long ago wrote – paraphrased – that if and when markets are perceived as being stable, it’s that very perception will make them unstable, because stability, i.e. low volatility, will drive investors into riskier asset purchases. The Fed’s manipulation-induced ultra-low rates have achieved just that, and now they’re surprised?

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

The Primitive Theory Of National Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Andrew_McKillop

Blasphemy Against the Holy Ghost
Marx thundered that “...with the rise of national debt-making, want of faith in the national debt takes the place of blasphemy against the Holy Ghost, which cannot be forgiven”.  Not being able to speak for the Holy Ghost, we can state that dark and primitive magic was certainly in play when national debts were invented – literally ex nihilo. But that was small beer compared to what was coming.

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Economics

Sunday, June 01, 2014

The Illusionary Economy Revives The Home ATM / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal uncovers a big problem in the US housing market, albeit, curiously, without necessarily identifying it as a problem. It would be nice if Americans could trust their once most trusted media to give them the best possible covering of a topic, but the Wall Street Journal apparently prefers to pick the side of, well, Wall Street. The problem not presented as one is the resurgence of American homes as ATMs, of borrowing against a property’s perceived value through home equity loans or home equity lines of credit (Helocs).

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Economics

Sunday, June 01, 2014

China Debt - Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

I am writing this introductory note from London during a layover on my way to Rome, and I’ll append a personal ending tonight after I finally make my way back from dinner to the hotel.

One of the few consensus ideas that I took away from the Strategic Investment Conference is that China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of China’s troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protégé Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend to talk and write to each other a lot). While I’m on the road, Worth is once again visiting China in this week’s letter, summing up our research and contributing his own unique style and passion. I think regular TFTF readers are going to enjoy Worth’s occasional missives and will want to see more of them over time. Now, let’s turn it over to my able young Cajun friend.

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Economics

Sunday, June 01, 2014

Decline And The Art Of No Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Oxymoron of Permanent Growth
One of the starkest non-surprises is that economic growth declines as well as advances. Why this should be “extraordinary” and a shock to civilization is hard to understand – for normal persons. Taking the case of Japan and the Asian Tigers, their miracle growth epochs or eras lasted about 30 – 40 years and then it was over. Taking the case of China and India, their period of extreme high annual growth lasted less than 20 years. In the case of the US and western European economies, high growth was commonplace for about 25 years.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

What To Expect From June's Major Economic & Central Bank Events / Economics / Central Banks

By: EconMatters

Since the last Employment report things have been relatively quiet on the economic and Central Bank front but all that is set to change over the next three weeks. Volatility should pick up and many of these events could be potentially market moving for certain asset classes.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

How Inflation Helps Keep the Rich Up and the Poor Down / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Jörg Guido Hülsmann writes: The production of money in a free society is a matter of free association. Everybody from the miners to the owners of the mines, to the minters, and up to the customers who buy the minted coins — all benefit from the production of money. None of them violates the property rights of anybody else, because everybody is free to enter the mining and minting business, and nobody is obliged to buy the product.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

The High Cost of Minimum Wages / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

In Switzerland on May 18 there was a vote to establish a minimum wage rate at a world record $25 an hour: the vote was rejected overwhelmingly as an estimated 76 percent voted against it.

As USA Today reported, there have been strong opinions in both directions. Luisa Almeida, a Portuguese immigrant working in Switzerland, said that she’s against the increase because according to her,“if my employer had to pay me more money, he wouldn’t be able to keep me on and I’d lose the job.” Furthermore, even though Switzerland does not currently have any laws regarding minimum wage rates, Luisa said she already makes more than she would at home in Portugal (where minimum wage is $4.19 per hour).

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The Pretty Girl and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s a persistent story that says (though I don’t think I can confirm it) that a pretty girl prefers to surround herself with less pretty girls – all in the eye of the beholder – in order to look prettier. After seeing yesterday’s -1% (-2% if you include Obamacare) US GDP ungrowth number, a fair segment of the financial press and punditry took a page out of the pretty girl playbook and ran with it. What should really be a deeply disturbing number in a 5 year old recovery (which is about 100 years in human terms) that has cost Americans trillions upon trillions in stimulus measures, is easily turned, without batting an eye, into a solid positive. The awful Q1 print, we are now told, serves to make Q2 look that much better.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

Crony Capitalism - Crony Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Tuesday Markets and IMF Forecasts
Almost any Tuesday, financial markets are up. Yes it happens but no, the “Tuesday blip” is pure market manipulation and nothing whatsoever to do with the real economy. Likewise any IMF forecast of economic growth, for any country in the world is always revised down from the previous forecast, but always shows a magnificent recovery “coming soon”.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

US Economy GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

As expected, the US revised the most recent quarter’s GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the problem was hidden by some statistical sleight of hand, in this case wildly-optimistic inflation assumptions.

Here’s an excerpt from the Consumer Metrics Institute’s just-published analysis:

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The U.S. Jobs Market is Gaining Traction / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

Claims Data

The Jobless claims data came out on Thursday and the trend is still in place and bodes well for the May Employment Report coming out next Friday as jobless claims fell sharply in the May 24 week, down 27,000 to 300,000. The 4-week average is down a significant 11,250 to a new recovery low of 311,500. Continuing claims are also down, falling 17,000 in data for the May 17 week to a new recovery low of 2.631 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 to 2.655 million, also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, also at a recovery low, came in at 2.0 percent. Notice a pattern here, new recovery low, new recovery low, and new recovery low.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

Fed's Lacker Warns U.S. Inflation Is Accelerating / Economics / Inflation

By: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told Bloomberg Radio host Kathleen Hays on "The Hays Advantage" today that inflation may not need to be too fast before the Fed raises the main interest rate. Lacker said, "I don't see us having to wait until inflation is actually getting to a place we don't like."

Lacker said, "We've seen inflation bottom out; I think it's pretty conclusive it's bottomed out in the last couple of quarters. And there's some tentative signs that a move back towards, a gradual move back towards 2 percent is in train, and I'm hopeful that that will play out over the year."

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

U.S. Economic Growth BEA Revised GDP Sharply Lower to -1% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -0.99% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down over 3.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013, and it is now more than 5% lower than the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter of 2013.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Impending Economic Downturns and the New Skyscraper Curse / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mark_Thornton

From CNN to Barron’s to Le Monde, Mark Thornton has been featured as an authority on how record-setting skyscrapers signal impending economic downturns. Last month, Dr. Thornton spoke with us about the Skyscraper Index and the Skyscraper Curse.

Mises Institute: The Skyscraper Index, which shows a correlation between the construction of the world’s tallest buildings and economic busts, was created by economist Andrew Lawrence in 1999. In 2007, you used the index with Austrian business cycle theory to identify the economic downturn that followed. How does Austrian business cycle theory explain the index?

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Iran Economy Stable but Miserable / Economics / Iran

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since Hassan Rouhani assumed the presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran in August of last year, the economic outlook for Iran has improved. When Rouhani took office, he promised three things: to curb the inflation which had become rampant under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to stabilize Iran's currency (the Rial), and to start talks to potentially try and end the sanctions which have battered Iran since 2010. Rouhani has delivered on each of these promises. From this, one might assume that the Iranian economy, and the Iranian people, are headed towards better times.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Piketty's 'Capital in the 21st Century' Book Envy Problem / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_Schiff

There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally. In fact, the Piketty phenomenon (the economic equivalent to Beatlemania) has in some ways become a bigger story than the ideas themselves. However, the book's popularity is not at all surprising when you consider that its central premise: how radical wealth redistribution will create a better society, has always had its enthusiastic champions (many of whom instigated revolts and revolutions). What is surprising, however, is that the absurd ideas contained in the book could captivate so many supposedly intelligent people.

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