Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trendsThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
UK House Prices vs Earnings, Immigration, Public Spending, Unemployment and Housing Market Affordability / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Politicians have been busy in recent months making a series of speeches warning of the cost of living crisis as liberally reported on by the mainstream press, a crisis that manifests itself in earnings unable to keep pace with even the official rate of inflation that has been systematically revised over several decades to under report the real rate of inflation. The persistent lack of apparent housing market affordability has encouraged many academic economists and journalists to warn of falling earnings against rising house prices as a fundamental reason why house price rises are unsustainable as obviously people just do not have enough money to finance house purchase costs such as mortgage payments as prices rise, and thus deflation is always deemed to be just around the corner. We'll as I will illustrate in this article in my UK housing market series that they are once more WRONG!Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 20, 2014
Predrag Rajsic writes: An Open Letter to My Landlord
Dear EIWO Canadian Executive,
Unfortunately, it has become necessary that I express my and my family’s displeasure with the way your company has been treating us as customers. Our recent interactions with the management indicated that your company puts negligible importance on the past six years of our business partnership. Although we have been paying rent every month for the past six years without any issues, your staff assumed that the best way to communicate a late payment for the previous month is an N4 eviction notice. The N4 notice states in large bold and underlined font that “this is a legal notice that could lead to you being evicted from your home.” This eviction notice was accompanied by a letter that “asks that in the future you (meaning my wife and I) make more of an effort to have your (our) rent paid on time.”Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I had never bought real estate as an investment BEFORE the housing bust...
In short, I want INCREDIBLE value for my investment dollars... and I had never seen that before in U.S. real estate... until the Great Bust.
Then in 2008, near the bottom of the housing crisis, I wrote "The Housing Bust Is Over."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: While residential investment represents a small portion of gross domestic product (GDP), housing is perhaps one of the most cyclical sectors of the economy and tends to lead economic swings by months to years. As such, keeping a close eye on housing provides a valuable insight into future economic trends. While housing represented a major headwind to the economy after the housing bubble burst, as I show below, it is now providing a major tailwind instead.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Get Ready for Subprime Mortgage Crisis 2.0, Collapse in U.S. Housing Market Coming... / Housing-Market / US Housing
Forget what you are hearing about stiffer mortgage lending requirements. It’s not true. Real estate expert Fabian Calvo says, “If you can fog up a mirror or you have a pulse, they will give you a home loan. That’s what they have done with the car loans, and that’s what they are doing with housing loans.” The so-called new rules do not have any down payment credit score requirement. Zero percent down loans are going to make a very big comeback. According to Calvo, “After the mid-term election, you’re going to see no-money-down loans just really roar back. It’s all part of the pump and dump I’ve been telling you about for well over a year.”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Black Knight Financial Services, formerly LPS, released its latest Mortgage Monitor Forecast.
- Mortgage originations are at the lowest levels in almost four years
- Prepayment/refi activity indicates another drop coming
- Higher interest rates slow refinance activity
- Quality of loans originated in 2013 have made it the best performing vintage on on record.
- Home equity originations are up significantly since a year ago: total HE lending is up 70%, while volume on 2nd mortgages has more than doubled
- Population of “refinancible” loans continues to shrink - Only 5.9M loans meet broadly defined criteria for refinancing, down 4M since December 2012.
- Delinquencies continue to rise among HELOCs that began amortizing
- High risk of “payment shock” in the coming three years
Friday, January 10, 2014
Having scoured the mainstream press for their views on immigration and house prices for a comparison against my recent series of UK housing market articles led me to the venerable FT that not so long ago ran with an academic study that goes against decade long facts of upward pressure on house prices due to immigrant demand, which instead concludes that mass immigration tends to drive down house prices in a study by Dr Nils Braakmann from Newcastle University.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 09, 2014
U.K. House Prices vs Supply, Immigration, Population Growth and Demographics Crisis / Housing-Market / Demographics
The long-term battle being played in the UK housing market is that of limited new build supply always trying to play catchup with ever increasing demands as a consequence of the UK's growing population and changing demographics which is set against many other developed countries that are either experiencing falling populations such as Germany and Japan or have ample space to build far beyond that demanded as a consequence of population growth such as the United States and of course not forgetting eastern europe as a consequence of emigration. Therefore this analysis as part of a series on the UK housing market seeks to gauge the likely impact of population growth and the ageing demographics crisis on UK house prices over the next 20 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Michael Lombardi writes: Will the gains that the U.S. housing market made in 2012 and 2013 continue into 2014? As you’ll read below, the biggest threat to the housing market is moving in the opposite direction—against housing.
Sure, the Case-Shiller S&P Home Price Index, which tracks prices in the U.S. housing market, shows an overall increase of 13.6% in home prices in the first 10 months of 2013 (see the chart below).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
UK Housing Boom Prompts Landlords to Evict British Benefit Claiming Tenants in Favour of Eastern European Workers / Housing-Market / Immigration
Rising house prices meets housing benefits cuts benefits culture cap resulting in private Landlords increasingly making the financially commonsense decision to evict not just benefit claimants heavily in arrears but virtually all of their benefit claiming tenants in favour of far more reliable hard working eastern european workers.
This is the natural consequences of rising house prices as rental yields tend to track house price rises where the average annualised rise of 8.5% translates into average rents being raised by 8.5% which pushes benefits claimants increasingly into arrears and thus prompting Landlords to seek more reliable rent paying tenants as the Coalition government has desperately been attempting to cut what had become out control housing benefits payments to 4.5 million households under the Labour government that at its extreme had manifested itself in rental payments of over £100,000 per annum each to over 100 families that are now subject to the benefits cap.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 05, 2014
U.S. House Prices Forecast 2014, 2013 Bull Market to Yield U.S. Economic Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
U.S. central bank rampant money printing has succeeded in inflating the US housing market far beyond anything that anyone could have imagined at the start of 2013, in fact a year ago the consensus view was that for U.S. house prices to end DOWN on the year, and such prevailing bearishness persisted in the mainstream press well into the middle of the year, instead as of writing the latest house prices data of 180.27 (SPCS10) published on 31st Dec 2013 for October 2013 puts U.S. housing market momentum at a high of 13.5% per annum as illustrated by the graph below:Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 03, 2014
The Coalition government's March 2013 help to buy scheme, the extension of which to all properties rather than just new builds that itself was brought forward to the 1st of October 2013 from 1st of January 2014 has sparked panic buying amongst many thousands of prospective home buyers who had been finding it near impossible to build deposits of 20%-25% that mortgage lenders typically sought in terms of managing risk, however now the same mortgages can be secured with just 5% deposits which on the £600k valuation limit amounts to a huge difference between a previous deposit requirement of £120-£150k against £30k today under the help to buy guarantee scheme.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
This video is based on the in-depth analysis and detailed concluding trend forecast for UK house prices into the end of 2018, (thus a full 5 year forecast) from the content within the NEW UK Housing Market ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 30, 2013
UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Introduction: This analysis is part 2 of 2 that seeks to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices that extends my existing forecast into Mid 2014 to the end of 2018, thus a 5 year forecast for UK house prices 2014-2018. This analysis is focused on the impact of the Inflation mega-trend on the prospects for UK house prices that concludes in a detailed trend forecast and its implications for outcome of the next general election.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 30, 2013
Introduction: This analysis is part 1 of 2 that seeks to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices that extends my existing forecast into Mid 2014 to the end of 2018, thus a 5 year forecast for UK house prices 2014-2018. This analysis is focused on the outlook for the UK economy, debt and QE money printing dynamics and their implications for UK house prices and on the outcome of the next general election.Read full article... Read full article...