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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, July 12, 2013

How to Play the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Rout / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Alexander Green writes: This week Goldman Sachs forecast that 10-year Treasury yields would reach 3% by the end of this year and 4% by 2016. Of course, Goldman doesn’t have a crystal ball, and neither do we.

But the bloom is clearly off the rose. Ben Bernanke’s announcement last month that the Fed intends to end its $85 billion a month bond-buying program by the middle of next year has turned the $11.9 trillion U.S. Treasury bond market upside down. The 10-year yield has soared from 1.76% at the end of 2012 to a recent high of 2.75%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

How High Will U.S. Interest Rates Go? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

To best answer the question as to where U.S. Treasury yields are headed in the next quarter or two, it is important to know where they would be without the manipulation of our central bank, where they would be in a growing economy and, also, absent the threat from an imminent collapse of a major foreign currency. The current yield on the Ten-Year Note is 2.6%, up from 1.6% less than two months ago. True, that rate has surged of late but it is still far below its 40-year average of around 7%. But just prior to the beginning of the Great Recession (in fall of 2007) the yield on the Ten-Year Note was 4%--140 basis points higher than today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Meredith Whitney on Muni Bonds and Red State-Blue State Migration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Frank Marchant writes: In 2010 Meredith Whitney made an earth shattering statement during a CBS's "60 Minutes" interview that rocked the municipal bond investment world.

"There is not a doubt in my mind that you will see a spate of municipal-bond defaults,"said Meredith Whitney on Dec 19. She continued, "You could see 50 sizable defaults, and 50 to 100 sizeable defaults, more. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of defaults."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 07, 2013

Mortgage Backed Securities Clobbered and U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Following Job Numbers / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watchers Anonymous notes that treasury yields surged higher and mortgage backed securities (MBS) had a steep selloff following purportedly good job numbers.

Beneath the surface, the economy actually shed 326,000 full-time jobs.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 05, 2013

When the Fed Might Start Tapering QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Frank Marchant writes: Although you might think the markets simply respond any time Ben Bernanke sneezes, his "cold cycle" is not one of the indicators that will spell the slowing and eventual cessation of the printing press at the Fed.

There actually is a mathematical formula used by the Federal Reserve to determine when to stop the presses.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 04, 2013

How to Make Money in Bull or Bear Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: Though painful, the recent sell-off in bonds has had three positive effects on the bond market:

First, it reinforced the fact that the bond market’s movements are mechanical and predictable.

Second, it drove up rates on all bonds to more reasonable levels.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 03, 2013

How to Take Advantage of the U.S. Bond Market Panic / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Investors beware: the bond market is treading in very rough waters. The sell-off we have seen of U.S. bonds might just lead to more troubles ahead for the bond market. Just take a look at the chart below:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 01, 2013

U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bonds – A Rally To Sell? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Noonan

Trading opportunities arise every day, however, quality trades that offer an edge do not. We use developing market activity, as depicted in charts, to find trade potentials with a defined limited risk and greater reward potential. 30 Year Bonds appear to be advertising weakness and a shorting opportunity.

When seeking trades, we use the “If, Then,” approach. IF the market does this, THEN we do that. The latter is acted upon only if the former requirements are met. Following this scenario, there is no guesswork or predicting involved, and the emotional element is not in play, either. Discipline is required, but it leads to more profitable trading potentials, so it is worth the effort.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 29, 2013

The Critical Trend Towards Higher Interest Rates Has Begun / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“’The Fed can continue to spew out QE until the bond market says it can’t.’ - Richard Russell. PS: The bond market has said that ‘it can’t.’”

          

Richard Russell, dowtheoryletters, 06/21/2013

 

“The real menace of our Republic is the invisible government which like a giant octopus sprawls its slimy legs over our cities, states and nation. At the head is a small group of banking houses…This little coterie…runs our government for their own selfish ends. It operates under cover of a self-created screen…seizes…our executive officers… legislative bodies…schools…courts…newspapers and every agency created for the public protection.”

 

           John F. Hylan, Mayor of New York, 1918-1925

           via lemetrepolecafe.com

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 27, 2013

BIS Warning of Bond Market Crisis on the Way! / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

From 2007 the crises have grown - Central Banks can't fix it alone!

Whether it is Bill Gross of Pimco, Marc Faber, ourselves or so very many competent analysts in the financial world, to a man, are warning of the destructive power of rising interest rates. Now in addition to all of us, we have the central banker of central bankers, the Bank of International Settlements, giving a serious warning to developed world governments that it is perhaps too late to rely on growth to rescue the global economy from deflation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Bernanke Plays Call my Bluff With Markets / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

(Wikipedia): Call My Bluff was a long-running British game show between two teams of three celebrity contestants. The point of the game is for the teams to take it in turn to provide three definitions of an obscure word, only one of which is correct. The other team then has to guess which is the correct definition, the other two being "bluffs".

Grant Williams writes: Among the first things we learn in school are the rules of grammar — the building blocks of proper communication which underpin the English language.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 24, 2013

How Recent Surge in Yields Compares with the Past / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short : The bond market selloff after the FOMC meeting and Chairman Bernanke’s surprising specifics about exiting QE was quite stunning. However, his hawkish position was supported by today’s release by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) of its annual report. The abstract for opening section, headed Making the most of borrowed time, begins with the following assertion:

Originally forged to describe central banks’ actions to prevent financial collapse, “whatever it takes” has become a rallying cry for them to continue their extraordinary policies. But we are past the height of the crisis, and the goal of policy today is to return to strong and sustainable growth.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 24, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Panic Profitable Plays for Investors / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: DailyGainsLetter

Moe Zulfiqar writes: It’s no secret: the Federal Reserve has kept U.S. bond prices higher and yields historically low by keeping interest rates low with multiple rounds of quantitative easing.

But now things have taken a minor turn, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released on June 19. “The committee currently anticipates that it will be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year,” said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. “And if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year.” (Source: “Bernanke says Fed likely to reduce bond buying this year,” Reuters, June 19, 2013.)

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 23, 2013

The Dark Side of the QE Circus / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Andy_Sutton

There may come a day soon where the markets sell off if one of the whiskers in Big Ben’s beard is out of place. Or perhaps if his tie is a bit crooked. Or maybe we end up with Janet Yellen as the next puppet in charge over at the local banking cabal and we fret about her hairdo. I don’t know, but one thing that is for certain is that this central bank so wants to be loved and we are so under psychological attack with all of this QE nonsense that it isn’t even funny.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Tapering the Fed QE Taper Talk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

As usual the Federal Reserve media reaction machine has fallen for a poorly executed head fake. It has been fooled by this move many times in the past and for its efforts it has tackled nothing but air. Yet right on cue, it took the bait once more. Somehow the takeaway from Wednesday's release of the June Fed statement and the Bernanke press conference is that the Central bank is likely to begin scaling back, or "tapering," it's $85 billion per month quantitative easing program sometime later this year, and that the program may be completely wound down by the middle of next year.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 21, 2013

Why U.S. Interest Rates Are Rising Sharply Even Though Inflation Is Non-Existent / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: As we all know, the Federal Reserve has two mandates: keep the inflation rate low (officially, they have an optimal rate of two percent) and try to keep employment at or near maximum levels.

Because the extent of the recession has been so large and deep, in both of these measures, the Federal Reserve has not yet attained either goal. As a result, the Federal Reserve has enacted an extremely aggressive monetary policy stance.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 21, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Implosion Has Officially Begun / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The QE Infinite parade officially ended yesterday when Bernanke hinted at tapering QE later this year or in mid-2014.

I first warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers about this in mid-May writing,

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Will Rising Interest Rates Ruin the Economic Recovery? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Clif_Droke

Sometimes words speak louder than actions. That has certainly been the case lately with the Fed hinting that it may taper off asset purchases by the end of this year.

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy loose a while longer but hinted that the days of easing may be numbered. Bernanke said that the Fed may wind down its quantitative easing (QE) program if the economy continues to improve.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Detroit the Epicentre of the U.S. Death Spiral of Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Debt is deadly, and it’s made even worse with rising interest rates that prevent you from eliminating the debt load. What happens with rising interest rates is that payments mostly go toward the interest and less to the principal. In fact, it’s what I call a death spiral of debt that worsens as rates move higher.

When individuals face excessive debt, often the solution is to pare down on spending and adhere to a strict debt repayment program.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 20, 2013

FOMC Meeting: Fed Provides No Direction to Markets on QE Tapering / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Diane Alter writes: Market participants were hoping for clarity following the highly anticipated FOMC meeting Wednesday on the big question: to taper, or not to taper?

As many expected, there were no explicit statements about when the Fed would end its massive quantitative easing (QE) measures.

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