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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Portugal Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMake no mistake: The stakes for financial and economic survival in Europe are high. Seemingly everyone -- from investment bloggers to financial television hosts -- has something to say about the European debt crisis.

But with so many divergent opinions to choose from, which ones should you trust?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 26, 2012

OMC Meeting: Nature of Economic Data Will Dictate Next Policy Step / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleForward guidance for monetary policy of a low federal funds rate through late 2014 was retained, with a 9-1 vote in favor of this stance. President Lacker of the Richmond Fed dissented as he “does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.”

The outcome of the April 24-24 FOMC meeting needs to be examined under three separate segments – the policy statement, highlights of press conference, and forecast.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

What if Rip van Winkle was a Bond Vigilante? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mario_Innecco

The U.S. fiscal situation never ceases to amaze us here at forsoundmoney. With that in mind we have looked at some very interesting data and comparisons.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

European Central Bank: "Great White Fear" Takes A Bite Out of Recovery / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's been over two years since the European Central Bank began its open-heart surgery of the eurozone's anemic economy. So far, the procedure has included an unprecedented $3 trillion-plus in bailouts, monetary transfusions, AND toxic debt transplants.

Yet, according to a recent slew of discomforting news reports, the economies across the pond would still flatline in seconds without constant life support. Here, an April 18, 2012, Wall Street Journal writes:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Where to Put Your Money When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble Bursts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: With interest rates at near-record low levels it appears that the only way for rates to go is up.

As the U.S. economy moderately strengthens, that means the bond bubble will begin to leak. Even darker, the bubble might just burst altogether.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Superheroes of Central Banking Destroying Money By Printing it to Excess / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEccentric yes, but central bankers are a long way from playboy billionaire geniuses with hidden superpowers...

SO CENTRAL BANKERS still can't leap tall buildings in a single bound then.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 23, 2012

German Bond Yield Trend Harbinger for U.S. Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In our comparison chart of the Spanish, German and U.S. 10-year Yield, we see that downward pressure on Bund yield persists, owing to a flight to safety from the Euro-zone periphery into German paper. Bund yield has violated a multi-month support area, which projects a target of 1.25%.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Spain is Greece… Only Bigger and Worse / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn the Surface, Spain’s debt woes have many things in common with those of Greece:

1)   Bad age demographics

2)   A toxic bank system

However, you’ll note that as we tackle each of these, Spain is in fact in far worse fiscal shape than Greece.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Spain is an Absolute Disaster / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Well the financial world is awash with reports that the Spanish auctions went well. They did not. And you better believe the ECB and other Central Banks were involved in the buying.

Instead, Wall Street is using the auction (and just about every other announcement this morning) to shred and those who sold calls in their usual options expiration games. This has been the norm for years, but the mainstream financial media continues to find “fundamental” excuses for market action that is clearly just manipulation and nothing more.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Spanish Flu May Send European Union to Bed / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecently, the world's economic leaders, including economists at the European Central Bank, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, supported by most of the mainstream financial media, assured the world that the debt agreement worked out between Greece and its creditors would help put an end to the European-wide debt crisis. In reality, the crisis has merely been papered over. Despite the broad rally in stock and bond markets over the past few weeks, I firmly believe that Greece will likely require another bailout within a year.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The Anatomy of Sovereign Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Michael_Pento

The three primary factors that determine the interest rate level a nation must pay to service its debt in the long term are; the currency, inflation and credit risks of holding the sovereign debt. All three of those factors are very closely interrelated. Even though the central bank can exercise tremendous influence in the short run, the free market ultimately decides whether or not the nation has the ability to adequately finance its obligations and how high interest rates will go. An extremely high debt to GDP ratio, which elevates the country’s credit risk, inevitably leads to massive money printing by the central bank. That directly causes the nation’s currency to fall while it also increases the rate of inflation.  

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

PIMCO Total Return Bond ETF (NYSE: BOND): Bill Gross’ Foray into ETFs Living Up to Hype / Interest-Rates / Exchange Traded Funds

By: Benjamin_Shepherd

I’m usually skeptical of exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches that are preceded by a lot of hype; generally, the harder a company works to promote a new exchange-traded product, the less value there is to it. And for the better part of the month leading up to its launch, PIMCO Total Return Bond ETF (NYSE: BOND) garnered quite a bit of attention for being bond maven Bill Gross’s inaugural effort in the ETF space.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 16, 2012

The Pain in Spain is too Big to be Contained / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: PhilStockWorld

Depression.

Not the Economy (yet) but how I feel so far in my weekend reading. Even John Mauldin had to go against his wishes to ignore Spain this week now echos my thoughts on the subject in an excellent overview of the situation. Russ Winter has s similar view in "Bernanke and Germany Wake up to a Merda Storm" and Mish discusses Spain's emergency ban on cash transactions exceeding 2,500 Euros in an effort to clamp down on tax evaders and stop the rapid flow of money out of the country as well as the massive jump in Bank of Spain borrowing from the ECB.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Recent Federal Budgetary Trends: Facts, Not Opinions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The federal budget deficit reached its widest gap on a 12-month moving total basis in February 2010 at $1.478 trillion. Although remaining at astronomical levels, the budget deficit has been trending lower and stood at $1.246 trillion in March 2012. The year-over-year growth in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays peaked at 19.7% in July 2009. In March 2012, the year-over-year change in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays was minus 1.1%. The median growth in the year-over-year moving total of federal outlays from December 1955 through March 2012 is 6.6%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 13, 2012

Different Opinions on Near Term Monetary Policy Prevail Within the FOMC / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Fed officials have voiced different opinions about the direction of monetary policy in the past two days. Among FOMC members who are wary of the current stance of Fed policy, President Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed indicated the Fed needs to commence reversing the extraordinary accommodation in the next six to nine months.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Whither U.S. Treasury Bond Yields After Operation Twist? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed’s monetary policy accommodation in the form of two rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and the current Operation Twist (OT) that is underway have provided support for economic activity and helped to stabilize the financial system. Operation Twist will be completed as of June 2012. QE1 and QE2 led to higher Treasury note yields followed by a reduction in yields as the two programs were completed (see Chart 1). Operation Twist has succeeded in establishing a firm floor for rates, but on the expiration of the program as of June 2012, the future is uncertain.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

We Are Nearing the End Game of Central Bank Intervention / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBecause of a lack of foreign interest in long-term Treasuries, the Fed decided to step in to pick up the slack. As a result of this, the US Federal Reserve has accounted for 91% of all new debt issuance in the 20+years bracket. Put another way, the US Federal Reserve is now effectively the long-end of the US debt market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

LTRO 3 likely before any U.S. QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Tony_Caldaro

In January we reported the following: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/feds-monetary-base-update/. The FED’s monetary base did make a new high, in February at $2.753 tln, but appears to have ended well short of our $3.0 tln expectation. Since then the monetary base has contracted by nearly $100 bln. The recent high, in OEW terms, may have completed Primary wave III. This would suggest the base in now contracting in a Primary wave IV.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 08, 2012

The Worst of All Monetary Policies, The Boom That Must End in Depression / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI. Monetary Expansion Is Kept Going

In monetary analyses, the balance sheet of the commercial banking sector is typically kept separate from the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, combining the two balance sheets might be much more informative.

First, adding up the business volumes of commercial banks and the Fed provides a (much) better insight into the expansion of the monetary sector as a whole over time — especially so in times of the financial and economic "crisis."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Why the ECB Expanded Its Balance Sheet By Over $1 trillion in Less Than Nine Months / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBetween July 2011 and today, the ECB has expanded its balance sheet by an incredible $1+ trillion: more than the Fed’s QE 2 and QE lite combined (and in just a nine month period).

This rapid and extreme expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (again it was greater than QE lite and QE2 combined… in nine months) indicates the severity of the banking crisis in Europe. You don’t rush this much money out the door this fast unless you’re facing something very, very bad.

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