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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Martin Armstrong on the Sovereign Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ron_Hera

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present a fascinating interview with Martin A. Armstrong, founder and former Head of Princeton Economics, Ltd. In the 1980s, Princeton Economics became the leading multinational corporate advisor with offices in Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney and in 1983 Armstrong was named by the Wall Street Journal as the highest paid advisor in the world.

As a top currency analyst and frequent contributor to academic journals, Armstrong's views on financial markets remain in high demand. Armstrong was requested by the Presidential Task Force (Brady Commission) investigating the 1987 U.S. stock market crash and, in 1997, Armstrong was invited to advise the People's Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

US Economy Hits Another Roubini Road-Hump: Is This The End? / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini made his name out of a paper he co-authored in 2003 with someone whose name I forget, and everyone else did too. His thesis then was that the U.S. Current Account deficit (basically a long word for the trade deficit in Goods and Services) was unsustainable, so there would be a meltdown.

He was actually wrong for the right reasons; his idea was that the demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreigners was not enough to finance the Trade/Current Account Deficit, that part was right.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

ECB’s Cheap Funds – Waiting for a Turnaround in Lending / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European Central Bank’s (ECB) financial accommodation through the longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December 2011 and February 2012 amounting to over 1 trillion euros has stabilized financial markets. But, the desired impact on bank lending is not visible yet. Granted, it is a bit too soon to expect positive signs, but it is an important aspect to track in the near term. The objective of LTRO’s is to prevent a severe disruption of the flow of credit to businesses and households. The February LTRO reached a larger number of institutions compared with the December package and included expanded collateral that enabled smaller financial institutions to participate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Bill Gross on Bernanke Rolling Out QE3 in April / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO founder and co-CIO Bill Gross spoke with Bloomberg Television's Margaret Brennan today, telling Bloomberg TV that the Fed will likely shift focus to mortgage securities to keep borrowing rates low when Operation Twist ends in June.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

What Causes Interest Rates to Rise / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing notion among the main stream media and economists is that interest rates are rising because of improving economic growth. But like many of the readily accepted tenets of today’s world of popular finance, this too has its basis in fallacy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Quorum Sensing and Its Application to Computer Program Trading of Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: David_Petch

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis article is going to throw another idea into the pot about computer based algorithms with an idea borrowed from Microbiology titled “Quorum Sensing”. Nature has been in the business of survival and evolution for billions of years, so it should come as no surprise to most that artificial intelligence and computer based design have been borrowed from studying the human mind. Now what do microbes have to do with how computer based trading is performed. A short-course in Microbiology will be required, but it will quickly be tied into how trading software is “sensing” its environment and how the common investor can use this knowledge to derail these trading patterns.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Bernanke – Additional Monetary Accommodation Is Entirely Possible / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Chairman Bernanke presented an extensive assessment of the labor market this morning. Bernanke repeated his depiction of the labor market as “far from normal,” which was his opinion at the February 29, 2012 semi-annual testimony to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives. He listed positive developments in the labor market – the noticeable increase in payrolls in the three months ended February (+245,000, 3-month moving average), moderation in layoffs in the public sector, longer workweek, the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.0% in September 2011 to 8.3% in February 2012, and the declining trend of new jobless claims. On the negative side, he mentioned it is unclear if the recent gains in payrolls “will be sustained,” and listed another set of indicators to watch – jobless rate, long-term unemployment, and the rate of net hiring.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 25, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10-Year Yield Is Heading Up Above 6% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Perhaps then the recent 1.8% low was not just because of Euro-refugees, perhaps we are on the cusp of another Black Swan tail-risk potentially as devastating as World War II? Or perhaps there is another explanation?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

US Public Debt Growing at Unsustainable Rate / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Colin_Twiggs

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe often blame Fed monetary policy for the GFC, with interest rates at exceptionally low levels leading to "Greenspan's bubble." Treasury was just as culpable, however, with the massive 2004-2005 surge in public debt flooding the market with liquidity. The repeat in 2008-2011 was more justifiable: the spike in public debt was necessary to offset the sharp decline in private (non-financial) debt which would have caused a deflationary spiral. The effect was to smooth out the fall in total domestic debt (public and private) and create a relatively "soft" landing for the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Peak Imbalances Are Falling, New Bear Market in Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe topic at hand is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, its falling price, and consequent rising yield. The ten year was trading at a 2.03% yield on March 9 and rose to 2.38% on March 19, 2012. These things happen and the ten-year may fall back to a price and yield that satisfies central bankers and Wall Street. Nevertheless, the era of artificially low government bond yields is coming to a close.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Fed Spreading Financial Cancer That's Killing the Markets and Democratic Capitalism / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile the vast majority of commentators look at the market action of the last three months and celebrate, I cannot help but shudder. The reason is that the stock market has been propped up solely by Central Bank and/or Federal Government intervention or the hope of more intervention.

That alone is worrisome as it indicates the stock market no longer cares for economic or financial fundamentals (something that has been clear for several years now).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

Are the Efforts of the World Central Banks Working? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is not the world's only central bank dealing with debt. Watch as Steve Hochberg, EWI's chief market analyst, shows what has happened to GDP in countries around the world as other central banks try to "inject liquidity" into the system.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

Is There a Bubble in U.S. Treasury Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article... Explaining the 2011 Treasury Rally (It's Not What You Think); Where to From Here?

People have been calling a bubble in treasuries for at least a decade. The shocking result, especially to hyperinflationists, has been a stair-step decline in yields for 30 years. That's quite a long time.

Here is a chart going back 20 years from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo bank in Denmark.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 19, 2012

American's Asleep At the Wheel Driving Into Debt Slavery / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmericans have an illogical love affair with their vehicles. There are 209 million licensed drivers in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. The U.S. has a higher number of motor vehicles per capita than every country in the world at 845 per 1,000 people. Germany has 540; Japan has 593; Britain has 525; and China has 37. The population of the United States has risen from 203 million in 1970 to 311 million today, an increase of 108 million in 42 years. Over this same time frame, the number of motor vehicles on our crumbling highways has grown by 150 million. This might explain why a country that has 4.5% of the world’s population consumes 22% of the world’s daily oil supply. This might also further explain the Iraq War, the Afghanistan occupation, the Libyan “intervention”, and the coming war with Iran.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSlightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30% which from an historical standpoint is very low. But a 33 basis point rise in one week is significant (100 basis points equal 1%). If the sell off in treasury accelerates things can get out of hand in very short order.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

The Fed Gets Creative, Buying Long-term Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 16, 2012

Lesson from Tracking the U.S. 10-Treasury Note Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield is trading at 2.28% as of this writing, little changed from 2.29% yesterday. But, this is a 25 bps uptick in two trading days, given the March 12 closing quote of 2.04%. The reasons listed for the sharp sell-off are – the less dovish policy statement of the Fed, February retail sales numbers, the success of the stress test of the largest 19 banks of the nation, the resolution of the Greek debt crisis, the improvement of employment conditions seen in the February employment report, the optimism from equity price rally, and so forth. The main takeaway is that as the list of positive economic signals grows, long rates move up in a hurry.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The Big Fat Greek Lie Is Now Obvious to Spain… So Who’s Next to Debt Default? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big fat Greek lie being spread throughout the financial community is that Greece has been saved. It’s a lie for the following reasons:

1)   Greece did in fact default

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Are U.S. Interest Rates About To Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Marty_Chenard

Will Interest Rates jump higher?

It could happen, as you will see on today's weekly chart of the 10 year yields .... symbol: $TNX.

The good news is that today's 10 year yield chart shows a five down trend. The bad news is that the one year weekly trend line is breaking out to the upside.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Global Economic Slowdown Paves Way for QE III / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

Back in early 2011, I was one of the few economists to warn that global GDP growth would slow dramatically in the near future and that the emerging market economies would not be immune from that upcoming contraction. My prediction was based on the premise that the then incipient sovereign debt crisis in the developed world would cause the export-driven BRIC economies to stall. We now know that the Japanese economy is contracting, while Europe's GDP is falling off a cliff. And just last week we received more concrete evidence that emerging market economies are starting to feel the pinch from the developed world's debt crisis.

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