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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

The U.S. Should Downgrade S&P / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe biggest news last week (other than the $2.5-trillion that got wiped off global stock markets) is that Standard & Poor’s made good on its tough talk and downgraded the United States long-term credit rating one notch from AAA to AA+. S&P also has kept the outlook at “negative” meaning the U.S. has little chance of regaining the top rating in the near term.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Downgrades S&P / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Brady_Willett

U.S. Treasury Securities are no longer risk-free.  This news comes after Standard and Poor’s cut the triple-A rating it has awarded the U.S. since 1941 (Moody’s has been in the AAA camp since 1917). Given the U.S.’s status as the world’s reserve currency printer – not to mention the safe haven flows arriving in the U.S. due to the recent upheaval in Euroland - the immediate impact of the downgrade is highly uncertain. However, what can be said is that should Moody’s or Fitch also cut, capital may be required to exit U.S. debt due to restrictive ownership covenants.  This ominous prospect could quickly come into play should another financial crisis arise and/or the U.S. economy slip back into recession. After all, Moody’s warned last week that it may cut if lawmakers do not enact larger debt reduction plans (an increasingly difficult undertaking with the markets and economy weakening), and Fitch is set to complete its U.S. ratings review by the end of August.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Debt downgrade doesn't mean what you think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Submissions

Sam Houston writes: The U.S. Treasury borrows money by issuing bonds.  Because it has a massive spending problem and can't live within its means it runs a perpetual and ever expanding deficit.  The deficit is financed by issuing more bonds.  This process is currently going parabolic as the U.S. debt load is expanding at an alarming rate.  See the chart below.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Currency Wars and Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: CentralBankNews

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe past week in monetary policy saw 12 central banks reviewing monetary policy settings, with 2 expanding asset buying programs, and just 3 adjusting interest rate levels. Those that adjusted interest rates were: Pakistan -50bps to 13.50%, Uganda +100bps to 14.00%, and Turkey -50bps to 5.75%; Switzerland also adjusted its interest rate target range downward to halt gains in the Swiss franc. Meanwhile those that held rates unchanged were: Botswana 9.50%, Uzbekistan 12.00%, Australia 4.75%, Japan 0.10%, Romania 6.25%, Russia 8.25%, EU 1.50%, UK 0.50%, and the Czech Republic 0.75%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

U.S. Debt: Has its Past Become its Future? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Casey_Research

Frank Trotter, President, EverBank Direct writes: Friends who know that I speak frequently about global economics have been calling to see what I think about the smackdown arguments over spending in Washington. I have surprised them all by saying that it’s really an empty record. Well, I suppose there is some kind of odd entertainment factor in the recent public debates about the U.S. debt ceiling.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

Dark Window Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US debt crisis, with its see-through debt ceiling and dark invisible floor, so far below, has very serious rivals in Europe. Relative to GDP, the USA's sovereign debt is either less extreme, comparable to, or not far ahead of sovereign debt load in not-so-small Italy, France, Germany, UK and Spain. Apart from Germany, the other four members of Europe's Big-5 are very close to recession, even using their own official and doctored economic data. But needless to say, these are not normal times and hope, or at least illusion is more important than ever, to keep the party going one more day.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

German Central Bank Goes to War with ECB Over Resumption of Bond Purchases / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleECB Resumes Bond Buys; Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB; Implications of "Trichet Out, Draghi In"

Yet Another Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB on Bond Purchases;

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

U.S. National Debt Heading for $23 Trillion by 2021 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: There was a lot of back-patting in Washington this week after U.S. President Barack Obama signed a debt-ceiling deal that he and members of Congress claim will reduce the national debt.

But here's the truth: This deal does nothing to reduce America's debt burden. In fact, the $14 trillion we owe now could every easily exceed $23 trillion by 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Debt Ceiling or QE3 in Disguise? Gold Smells the Rats / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the debt deal now signed and the crisis proclaimed to be over by the government and the mainstream lapdog media, it is time to take a serious look at the debauchery that was just perpetrated on the American people – again. The names have barely changed from 2008. The tactics certainly haven’t.  The magic of government accounting has had another chapter added to it as something that actually adds to the deficit and requires money be borrowed on its behalf is now a ‘cut'. Isn’t that just special? There are several big myths about the past few weeks that we need to uncover before anyone is really going to understand what is really going on here.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Is it a Sea Change if Rating Agencies Stick a Lower Rating for U.S. Sovereign Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe debt ceiling has been raised through 2012 and political drama related to the debt ceiling is unlikely to be repeated soon. Fitch and Moody’s indicated that the coveted AAA status of U.S. debt remains in place with a possibility of downgrades tied to the nature of fiscal consolidation Congress may deliver. As of this writing, S&P has not made public its opinion, but the new law does not meet its requirement of a $4 trillion reduction of the projected deficits indicated last month. Federal government debt (gross) of the United States stood at 93% of GDP in 2010 (see Chart 1). The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projections show this number at 105% by 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

QE3 Coming Soon? Treasury TIPS Say No / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Using the Treasury TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) one can determine inflation expectation simply by subtracting the treasury yield for the same maturity. As an example.

10 Year TIPS currently yields 0.29% (inflation adjusted yield)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Italy Bond Market Failure to Trigger Bailout as ECB to Become Buyer of "Only" Resort / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA critical Italian government bond auction is coming up Thursday, August 4. That bond auction is highly likely to fail. However, if it does fail, don't expect results to be reported that way.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

The New World Order of Global Sovereigns / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. debt ceiling political soap has finally come to an end. With the debt deal done, the U.S. has dodged a major bullet of a debt default, but may not be out of the woods yet for a sovereign credit downgrade.  Nevertheless, regardless whether one or more of the Big 3 agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch) would really deal a downgrade to the U.S., it is the markets that holds the key to a sovereign's credit worthiness based on its ability to manage a balanced budget, implementing proper monetary and fiscal policies. From that perspective, the markets probably have already spoken.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

U.S. Debt Cut Deal is Just Smoke & Mirrors / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

That's it?  This is the deal?  This is what they've been supposedly fighting over for months?

We'll get to the exact details in a moment but let's start by doing a fantasy comparison of the same "cuts" being made in a format that the regular man on the street can understand.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

What’s not for the WSJ to Like about the Debt-Ceiling Legislation? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Milton Friedman taught us that the real economic cost of government is not how it raises its funds – taxes or borrowing -- but how many funds in toto it raises. That is, according to Friedman, the real economic cost of government is how much it spends. The pending legislation on the increase in the U.S. public debt ceiling dictates that federal outlays be reduced in the coming 10 fiscal years. So, the editorial board of the WSJ should be ecstatic about the outcome of this debate about the debt-ceiling increase, right? Federal spending will be decreased. But I suspect that very shortly the op-ed page of the WSJ will be complaining about this pending debt-ceiling legislation.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 31, 2011

A U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade Is No Laughing Matter for China or Anybody Else / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith a stalemate heading into the weekend, the debt drama of the United States is going down to the wire, and when the clock strikes twelve midnight on August 2 (countdown clock at our homepage), the world's largest economy could be looking at an unprecedented technical default. The current consensus suggests that although a total default is nothing but a remote possibility, the damage is already done to the dollar, and a sovereign debt downgrade could be inevitable even after the debt ceiling deadlock is resolved.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 30, 2011

United States Defaulted Long Ago, Approaching Final Collapse of our Credit Expansion Boom / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 28, 2011

The Fed’s Funny Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Today's hearing is the second in a series examining the relationship between Federal Reserve policy and the performance of the United States economy. Today we are receiving testimony from the Federal Reserve banks. Of the half-dozen Reserve banks we contacted, only President Hoenig was willing to testify in front of this subcommittee, and we welcome him here today.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 28, 2011

The Death of the "Risk-Free" Investment / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: There's an old investing axiom that says "there's no such thing as a free lunch" - which basically tells us we can't earn a profit without taking some risk.

And whether or not the United States defaults on its debt when the federal government hits its debt ceiling on Tuesday, the threat by Standard & Poor's to downgrade the United States' top-tier AAA credit rating means there will also be no such thing as a "risk-free" investment.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Greek Debt Bailout Might Succeed, If All Goes According to Plan / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the second bailout agreement for Greece announced on Friday (July 22), the EU has stumbled toward a new level of institutional development. However, Greece still does not have a sustainable funding package in place; and the easing of contagion pressures on other Euro-zone members may be short-lived.

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