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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSlightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30% which from an historical standpoint is very low. But a 33 basis point rise in one week is significant (100 basis points equal 1%). If the sell off in treasury accelerates things can get out of hand in very short order.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 18, 2012

The Fed Gets Creative, Buying Long-term Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 16, 2012

Lesson from Tracking the U.S. 10-Treasury Note Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield is trading at 2.28% as of this writing, little changed from 2.29% yesterday. But, this is a 25 bps uptick in two trading days, given the March 12 closing quote of 2.04%. The reasons listed for the sharp sell-off are – the less dovish policy statement of the Fed, February retail sales numbers, the success of the stress test of the largest 19 banks of the nation, the resolution of the Greek debt crisis, the improvement of employment conditions seen in the February employment report, the optimism from equity price rally, and so forth. The main takeaway is that as the list of positive economic signals grows, long rates move up in a hurry.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The Big Fat Greek Lie Is Now Obvious to Spain… So Who’s Next to Debt Default? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big fat Greek lie being spread throughout the financial community is that Greece has been saved. It’s a lie for the following reasons:

1)   Greece did in fact default

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Are U.S. Interest Rates About To Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Marty_Chenard

Will Interest Rates jump higher?

It could happen, as you will see on today's weekly chart of the 10 year yields .... symbol: $TNX.

The good news is that today's 10 year yield chart shows a five down trend. The bad news is that the one year weekly trend line is breaking out to the upside.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Global Economic Slowdown Paves Way for QE III / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

Back in early 2011, I was one of the few economists to warn that global GDP growth would slow dramatically in the near future and that the emerging market economies would not be immune from that upcoming contraction. My prediction was based on the premise that the then incipient sovereign debt crisis in the developed world would cause the export-driven BRIC economies to stall. We now know that the Japanese economy is contracting, while Europe's GDP is falling off a cliff. And just last week we received more concrete evidence that emerging market economies are starting to feel the pinch from the developed world's debt crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

U.S. Student Debt To Reach $1.4 Trillion by 2020 / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStudent loan debt is surging, partly boosted by many who became unemployed during the Great Recession going back to school hoping for a better job prospect.  An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) showed that student loan debt stands at $870 billion nationally, surpassing the nation’s outstanding balance on auto loans ($730 billion) and credit cards ($693 billion) as of third quarter, 2011.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Central Banks Beat Up on Private Creditors / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Browne

Last week the Greek government, with the heavy handed support of its larger friends in the Eurozone, succeeded in coercing some 85.8 percent of private sector bondholders to "voluntarily" exchange €206 billion-worth of Greek sovereign bonds for newer bonds with longer maturities, lower coupon rates, and a face value of 53.5 percent less than the original paper. The benignly termed "haircut" (more accurately described as a "scalping") is particularly painful for those buyers who were literally strong armed by their own governments into buying Greek bonds in the hopes of achieving regional financial stability.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Eurozone Debt Crisis: Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen Greece's woes first rattled the markets two years ago, the pundits predicted a collapse of the euro.

The resilience of the euro has been due to a number of factors, not least of which is that the eurozone as a whole has a broadly balanced current account. As such, a misbehaving bond market doesn't necessarily cause a plunge in the currency, as foreign buyers are not required to fund a deficit or protect against currency weakness.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

European Countries Lining Up to Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's Outside the Box comes to us from Grant Williams, who covers the world from his perch in Singapore, in his always instructive and always entertaining Things That Make You Go Hmmm... I felt for him right at the outset today, because (like yours truly) he was trying really hard ... not to talk about Greece.And so, he announced, he was going to talk about Spain and about oil; but then, before he even made it through his opening paragraph, there was this:

"... ahhhh NUTS! They did it AGAIN.... ok... the Greek restructuring. It's not as though I could ignore it, now, is it? ... Oil can wait until next time.... no doubt it'll be an issue then too."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Will Take Years to Play Out / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJerry del Missier, co-chief executive officer of Barclays Capital, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Trish Regan and Adam Johnson today. Del Missier said that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will take "years to play out" and that the Volcker Rule could "significantly dislocate" some markets for Barclays.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 12, 2012

Get Ready to be Disappointed With "Sterilized" QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe other big "risk on" news last week, aside from a coercive Greek debt restructuring that was completed "successfully" (but will only make Greece's public debts larger and less sustainable), was a rumor that "sterilized QE3" may be launched by the Fed in the near future (as in, at their meeting this week). The original Wall Street Journal piece by Jon Hilsenrath about this "new novel" program contained precious little in the way of details, yet the pundits and the markets obviously love to jump on the irrational bandwagon first and ask questions later. I, for one, am still very skeptical that the Fed is either able or willing to launch further QE this month. 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 11, 2012

There Will Be Euro-zone Debt Crisis Contagion, The Next Greek Tragedy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article… (December 11, 2009) – Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, told reporters in Brussels on Friday that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker see "no possibility" of a Greek default, Bloomberg News reported. Papandreou also said that there was no possibility of Greece leaving the euro area, according to the report.

… (January 29, 2010) – There is no bailout and no "plan B" for the Greek economy because there is no risk it will default on its debt, the European monetary affairs commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, insisted on Friday.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 10, 2012

The Fed gets creative / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, March 09, 2012

If Economy is Recovering, Why Are U.S. Cities Going Bankrupt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs pundits chatter about an economic recovery, 80 miles east of San Francisco you'll find a city (pop. 292,000) facing bankruptcy:

Stockton is on the verge of becoming the largest city in the United States to declare bankruptcy...

San Francisco Chronicle (3/4)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 08, 2012

BoE Interest Rate Ddecision / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Gareth Talbot submits: Following today’s Bank of England interest rate decision Phil McHugh, senior analyst at foreign exchange firm Currencies Direct, said:

“The pound fell to a one week low against the euro in the run up to the BoE rate decision although remained steady on the announcement.  The decision as expected was to maintain rates at 0.5% and to hold fire on the asset purchasing programme.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Debt Crisis Unintended Consquences, What Greece Should Do and What About Ireland? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces."

– Sigmund Freud

Let me introduce Mauldin's Rule of Thumb Concerning Unintended Consequences:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 02, 2012

The Greek Bailout, the CDS Market, and the End of the World / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: A not-so-funny thing happened on the way to the latest Greek bailout.

The terms and conditions of the bond swap Greece agreed to before getting another handout constitutes a theoretical default - but not a technical default.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Debt Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's one thing to say that peripheral eurozone countries are better off leaving the euro, but how, exactly? And how severe can we expect the consequences to be, not only for those nations but also for the entire eurozone – and for the rest of us, worldwide? To minimize fallout from the event(s), it would be helpful to have a solid foundation, based on an historical understanding of similar events, on which we could build a reasonable set of expectations.

In the following piece, Jonathan Tepper, my Endgamecoauthor, gives us the cornerstone of just such a foundation. With his London firm, Variant Perception, he has prepared a 53-page report with the very confident title "A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 27, 2012

Short Term Interest Rates and Their Implications, Under the Radar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tony_Caldaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen a potental economic downturn is first sensed investors gradually start to shift into what is perceived as safe assets, namely Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As more and more investors pick up on this scenario a trend begins to appear. When economic data starts to confirm the downturn, the shift to safety turns into a long term trend and rates drop substantially. The opposite, of course, occurs during an economic upturn. When this occurs investors gradually shift out of the Treasury safe haven, and rates begin to rise. The initial shift, in both situations, is quite subtle, but measurable. We track these events using the 1 year T-bill.

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