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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

European Stability Mechanism Helps Push Portugal To The Brink / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Richard Thies writes: Just days after cutting the rating on Portuguese government bonds from A- to BBB, S&P took the unusual action of further reducing its rating to BBB- today. The explicit cause for the additional downgrade was the recently announced terms of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the structure that will permanently replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility in 2013. Greece's rating was also cut further into junk territory from BB+ to BB-. There now exists a three-notch spread between Portugal's S&P and Moody's sovereign ratings, with the Moody's rating at A3 following a March 16th downgrade. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt its March 15 meeting, the FOMC decided to continue with its program of quantitative easing, which would result in a net increase of $600 billion of Federal Reserve holdings of securities by the end of June. Of course, the FOMC issued a proviso with its decision. To wit, "The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability." Upon what "incoming information" should the Committee base its decision to modify its quantitative easing policy between now and June or, as important, beyond June?


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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 28, 2011

Where Is QE2 Taking Us? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFive months into the second round of quantitative easing — "QE2" — it is useful to take stock of what it has, and has not, accomplished. In short, the monetary base is way, way up, price inflation is up, long-term interest rates are up, and bank lending is down. QE2 has thus begun to deliver on all the dangers of which the critics warned, but not the alleged benefits.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 25, 2011

Why Quantitative Easing Has NOT Brought Back Inflation / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBelow is an excerpt from the newest free Club EWI investor education resource, The Independent Investor eBook 2011. Inside are some of the most eye-opening research findings by EWI's president Robert Prechter, as published in the recent issues of his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 24, 2011

What Should the Federal Reserve Do Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJames Grant writes: "What Should the Federal Reserve Do Next?" was the headline over the roundup of expert monetary opinion on the op-ed page of the September 9 Wall Street Journal. The experts couldn't seem to agree. Buy Treasuries by the boatload, one counseled. Do nothing of the sort, urged another. Hew fast to the Taylor rule, John B. Taylor, himself the author of the very rule, modestly proposed (i.e., fix the federal-funds rate at one and a half times the inflation rate, plus one-half times the shortfall of GDP from potential, plus one). The half-dozen authorities shared not much common ground except to ignore the principles on which the dollar was defined in 1792 and those on which the Federal Reserve was enacted in 1913. The burden of this essay is that they thereby missed the point.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Why Interest Rates Will Rise / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe world is on a Keynesian spending spree. Western central banks are inflating as never before in peacetime. Western governments are running massive budget deficits.

The European Union in 1997 established a Stability and Growth Pact, which set guidelines for fiscal policy: an annual deficit of no more than 3% of GDP and a total government-debt-to-GDP ratio of no more than 60%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Central Bank Fractional Reserve Banking Authorized Fraud Explained / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Weiner at the Daily Capitalist purports to explain the Fractional Reserve Banking: The Real Story

Weiner makes a case that the problem with fractional reserve lending is one of "duration mismatch". If you don't understand the term "duration mismatch", please don't stop reading. I provide an easy to understand example below.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Fed Policy: Underwrite Mortgages to Underwrite the Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In a little known program to which few have been paying attention, the US Treasury is attempting to unwind positions it inherited from a very expensive bailout of government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 21, 2011

Municipal Bonds Ignorance and Opportunity / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing are some of my remarks prepared for Allen & Company's Fifteenth Annual Arizona Conference. The discussion, "Munis and the Euro: Crises or Opportunities?", took place on March 8, 2011. The moderator was Senator Bill Bradley, Allen & Co., New York. Participants were Dick Ravitch, Ravitch, Rice & Company, New York; David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors, Sarasota, Florida; Uri Dadash, The Carnegie Endowment, Washington, DC.; and Frederick J. Sheehan.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 20, 2011

What Happens When We Come to the End of QE2? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat happens when the Fed is finished with QE2? I have been letting that filter into my thinking lately as I look at the economic landscape and the data we have seen the past few weeks. Correlation is not causation, as I often say, but all we can do is look back at what happened last time and speculate about the future. A very dangerous occupation, but your fearless analyst will plunge on ahead into the jungle of a very hazy future. You come with me at your own risk!

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Fed Policies of U.S. Dollar Destructionism / Interest-Rates / US Dollar

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJames Grant writes: This testimony was delivered before the Ron Paul monetary subcommittee on March 16, 2011.

"What Should the Federal Reserve Do Next?" was the headline over the roundup of expert monetary opinion on the op-ed page of the Sept. 9 Wall Street Journal. The experts couldn't seem to agree. Buy Treasurys by the boatload, one counseled. Do nothing of the sort, urged another. Hew fast to the Taylor Rule, John B. Taylor, himself the author of the very rule, modestly proposed (i.e., fix the federal funds rate at one-and-a-half times the inflation rate plus one-half times the shortfall of GDP from potential, plus one). The half-dozen authorities shared not much common ground except to ignore the principles on which the dollar was defined in 1792 and those on which the Federal Reserve was enacted in 1913. The burden of this essay is that they thereby missed the point.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 18, 2011

US Treasury Yield BubbleomiX Forecast: 10 Year Bonds Still Targeting 3% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThree months ago I wrote a piece saying that the 10-Year was heading for 3% by 20th February. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25128.html

 I got a note from someone who is right more often than me saying he had it pegged at 3.8% . I’ll call that a draw although I noticed I made a mistake on the timing, what I really meant was April 20th; I’ll put that down to dyslexia.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 18, 2011

U.S. Monetary Policy that Encourages Malinvestment / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Richard_Daughty

Thorsten Polleit, of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, penned an article in The Free Market newsletter of the Ludwig von Mises Institute titled "The Many Names for Money Creation."

It starts off almost humorous, reading more like an interesting, mood-lightening sidebar to a banner article titled "We're Freaking Doomed (WFD)!" as he notes that the dire economic conditions are such that "euphemisms have risen to great prominence. This holds true in particular for monetary policy experts, who are at great pains to advertise a variety of policy measures as being in the interest of the greater good, because they are supposed to 'fight' the credit crisis."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 18, 2011

Japan Quake Shakes U.S. Treasury Bond Market Get Ready for Financial Meltdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: LEAP

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBeyond its tragic human consequences (1), the terrible disaster that has just hit Japan weakens the shaky US Treasury Bond market a little more. In the GEAB No. 52, our team had already explained how the sequence of Arab revolutions, this fall of the “petro-dollar” wall (2), would translate during 2011 into the cessation of the massive purchases of US Treasury Bonds by the Gulf States. In this issue, we anticipate that the sudden shock experienced by the Japanese economy will lead not only to the halt in US T-Bond purchases by Japan, but it will force the authorities in Tokyo to make substantial sales of a significant portion of their US Treasury Bond reserves to finance the enormous cost of stabilization, reconstruction and revival of the Japanese economy (3).
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japanese Fallout May Hit U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Browne

Japan is facing two meltdowns in the wake of its devastating earthquake. The first, and more critical, is the meltdown at the Fukushima I Nuclear Plant, 150 miles north of Tokyo. Surely, this is the greater near-term threat. But long-term, another threat looms, having to do with the Japanese government's response to the former.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Monetary Lunatics, Is QE3 Ahead? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAustrian School economists have often explained the business cycle using the metaphor of liquor or drugs. The expansion of paper money and credit gives a sense of exuberance, an economic high that leads to excessive risk-taking and ballooning production. But it can’t be sustained. There is a morning after.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japan Natural Disaster to be Fought with a Tsunami of Credit / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Following the worst natural disaster in decades, the Japanese central bank will begin an instant round of easing to boost liquidity as Japan continues to recover after disaster.  The country, wrecked by an awful 9.0 earthquake and following tsunami, along with nuclear reactor exposure, will now cope in perhaps the worst way with economic fallout: 15 trillion yen in bond-buying, worth roughly $183 billion.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Options Trading Lesson on Triple Calendar Spreads / Interest-Rates / Options & Warrants

By: J_W_Jones

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the characteristics of option trades that is particularly vexing to the new trader is the almost infinite variation in which individual options can be combined to produce a seemingly infinite array of choices. These combinations of the various individual options are more than a theoretical exercise; each individual combination often produces a unique Profit & Loss curve.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

E.U. Politicians Seek to Unload PIIGS Bonds / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince last Friday all eyes have been geared toward the catastrophe in Japan. That’s indeed understandable. However, there has been another important development with far-reaching implications that is worth discussing today …

While the media was totally focused on the Japanese disaster, German Chancellor Merkel and her European brethren insidiously decided to make a major change within the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the EU’s euro rescue fund …

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

U.S. Government Evermore Reliant on Foreign Investors to Finance Debt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Kieran_Osborne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite the Fed recently surpassing China as the largest owner of U.S. government debt, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on foreigners to fund the government’s ongoing fiscal largess. Geithner’s Treasury Department has firmly focused new issues at the mid to longer end of the yield curve (since Geithner assumed office, the average length of marketable Treasury debt held publicly has increased by nearly one year). Despite the Treasury taking advantage of the ultra-low interest rate and funding environment, there are substantial refinancing issues over the near term; moreover, many of these maturing issues are foreign owned. Should sovereign fiscal concerns spread to the U.S., in concert with the evermore attractive interest rates offered internationally, refinancing the U.S. debt could become increasingly difficult if foreign investors turn their backs.

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