Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The Emperor Has No Credit / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
As political leaders forsake the few shreds of credibility they have left, at least one observer is willing to state the obvious: If credit is clothing, the emperor goes bare.
As the global financial crisis marches on, the world's leaders face a growing problem: The utter loss of not just credit, but credibility.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Gold Illusory Bubble and the Debt Bubble End Game / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
When the end-game began, gold was $35 per ounce. Today, gold is $1200.
When the end-game is over, gold will be far higher.
Midway through 2010 we are approaching the end of the end-game, the resolution of the monetary imbalances that began in 1971. For more than 2500 years, gold was money: but, in 1971 that changed. After 1971, money was no longer connected to gold. For the first time in history, money had no intrinsic value
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating By China? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
Despite repeated warnings going back several years from Moody's, S&P et al that the U.S. could lose its top credit rating with ongoing fiscal deficits and heavy debts, the platinum-plated AAA rating of the United States seems all untouchable.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
China Ratings Agency Downgrades US Debt From Moody's, S&P's, and Fitch's AAA Rating / Interest-Rates / US Debt
Currency wars. Well at least a Phony War for now. See, nothing has happened. All is well. Move along. Nothing to see here. Status quo intact.
The US sovereign debt gets a stiff downgrade, cut down from number one in the world, to a distant thirteenth place by China's Dagong Credit Rating Agency.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Safe Haven Could Sink / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: This morning I read an interesting story in Soundings magazine. It recounted the final voyage of the S.S. Morro Castle, purportedly one of the safest ships afloat back in 1934 when it regularly transported revelers on junkets between New York and Havana. Then, on the night of September 8, a series of unfortunate events occurred that ended with the ship washing up on the New Jersey shore the next day, close to half of its 300 or so passengers dead.
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Friday, July 09, 2010
Europe’s Banking Crisis: Latvia’s Third Option / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
As Europe’s banking crisis deepens, Greece’s and Spain’s fiscal crisis spreads throughout Europe and the US economy stalls, most discussions of how to stabilize national finances assume that only two options are available: “internal devaluation” – shrinking the economy by cutting public spending; or outright devaluation of the currency (for countries that have not yet joined the euro, such as Eastern Europe).
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
State of the European Banking System / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
Summary - In the last six months, the eurozone has faced its biggest economic challenge to date — one sparked by the Greek debt crisis which has migrated to the rest of the monetary union. But well before the sovereign debt crisis, Europe was facing a full-blown banking crisis that did not seem any closer to being resolved than when it began in late 2008. With investors and markets focused on European governments' debt problems, the banking issues have largely been ignored. However, the sovereign debt crisis and banking crisis have become intertwined and could feed off each other in the near future.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 08, 2010
ECB Urges Bank Recapitalizations / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet, in his press conference following the central bank’s monthly meeting, built on the more confident tone set in recent weeks. Mr. Trichet suggested improved market conditions are a reflection of the decisive and constructive actions taken by eurozone governments.
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Thursday, July 08, 2010
The Case For U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
With the economy softening and the Federal Reserve unable to provide a positive catalyst in the form of lower rates, the bond market has taken up of the slack producing lower yields. For example, mortgage rates have dropped over the past month enticing homeowners to refinance. It may not clear the glut of homes on the market or get us back to the old days of your house as an ATM machine, but lower rates do help. This appears to be a trend that will continue especially since Washington and the Fed no longer have the political will to expand the deficit.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
You're Crazy to Hold Government Bonds... Here's a Safer, Growing Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Dan Ferris writes: Investors are scared.
During the week of June 23-June 30, the American Association of Individual Investors Survey indicated investors are much more fearful than usual. On average, 31% of individual investors are bearish. These days, 42% of investors are bearish. On average, 39% are bullish. Today, just 25% are bullish.
Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Municipal Finance Pathologies Come to a Head / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Discussions about municipal finance generally assume three absolute conditions. First, the principal and coupon of municipal bonds are guaranteed: "Municipal bonds don't default," according to trusted experts. Second, the guarantees are backed by the taxing authority of the state or municipality. Third, accrued pension benefits are guaranteed.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2010
Fed Audit Failure Lends Credence to QE Rumors / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Just last week, Congress had a critical piece of legislation before it. Congress, through House bill HR 1207, could pass the bill in its entirety with a simple majority vote, and it would be included in the Financial reform overhaul bill which is currently being pushed through Congress. Should the audit bill have been added to the financial reform legislation, upon passage, the books at the Federal Reserve would be opened for audit by the GAO – at which point every citizen, politician, and investor would know within six months the extent of the actions taken by the Fed over the past 97 years of pure secrecy.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Inflation Isn’t Dead, Just Sleeping, Protect Your Wealth With TIPS / Interest-Rates / Inflation
Larry D. Spears writes: Investors are always on the lookout for hot tips. The best tips highlight investments that pack a big potential profit punch, but that haven't yet started their move.
That's just what we have for you here.
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Monday, July 05, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally on Disturbingly Weak Fundamental Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The bond market was stronger again last week as bonds rallied with help from more, persistent disturbingly weak fundamental data and an equity market that is still in search of a bottom.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
The Link Between Public Debt and Private Wages / Interest-Rates / US Debt
BETWEEN V.E. Day in 1945 and June 1947, the United States shrank its armed forces from twelve million people to around 1.5 million.
The impact on the economy – and on the US Treasury's then record debts – is hard to overstate...
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Euribor’s Wobble, How Nervous Should We Be? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
Since the beginning of May, Euribor has traded in a clearly defined sideways pattern. Our analysis of this contract had broadly been that it had little room to rally further due to the economic recovery clearly underway, but no reason to turn into a bear market yet since that recovery was still too fragile.
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Thursday, July 01, 2010
US Treasury Bond Holders Have Nothing to Fear today, Just Look How Low Yields Are! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
"BOY, the bond vigilantes are really on the warpath," jokes Paul Krugman, noting in his blog at the NY Times that 10-year Treasury yields ended Tuesday below 3.0%.
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Thursday, July 01, 2010
Municipal Bonds Crisis, I Get A Pat On the Back From Warren Buffett / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Back in February 2010 ago, I wrote an article titled, The Municipal Bond Crisis is About to Begin. The main points presented in that piece were all based on simple common sense. The were:
- Most state governments are broke or in the process of going broke
- Tax receipts were falling (so less money for state coffers)
- Muni bonds would collapse as governments chose to default rather than honor their payments
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Eurozone and U.S. LIBOR Interbank Interest Rates Divergence / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
A Tale of Two Cities - New York vs. Frankfurt - Chart 1 shows the recent behavior of the 3-month interbank loan rates in U.S. dollars and euros. Both in dollar and euro terms, these interest rates began drifting up in the second half of April as the Greek, Portugal and Spain (GPS) sovereign debt challenges came to the fore. If GPS were to default on its sovereign debt, this would have an adverse impact on some European banks. These potential losses for European banks caused interbank lending to "tighten up," thereby driving up interbank loan rates.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Facing Debt Reality, Most of the So-called Developed World is Broke / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
by David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Scanning through a local newspaper this week, I came across a letter to the editor that speaks volumes about the popular misconceptions that are dragging this country, and the world, to its knees.
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