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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Bond Market Fails to Follow Stock Markets Sharp Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market traded sideways last week in spite of the sharp rally in equities. The market received the bond auctions quite smoothly as it was supported by further rumours of potential Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities. Since the US Federal Reserve has already lowered their benchmark to the 0-0.25% range, there is not much room left for them to stimulate the economy with further rate cuts. As a result, bond traders are expecting the Fed leaders to announce a Treasury bond purchase program as early as at their next policy meeting on Wednesday, March 18. Most market watchers are familiar with the “Greenspan put” that got the economy off the hook every time it encountered a bump in the road.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2009

New Recovery Highs Expected in UltraShort TBT T-Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy near and intermediate term work indicates strongly that the upside pivot low at 44.01 last Friday (3/06) in the ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) completed the corrective period off of the 2/09 recovery rally high at 49.86. If that proves to be the case, then all of the action this week- the climb to 48.20 on Wed., followed by the pullback yest. and today- represent the start of a new upleg that should propel the TBT to new recovery highs.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Disintegrating Financial System: Haircut Time for Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." John Kenneth Galbraith

When George Soros recently said that the financial system had "effectively disintegrated", it caused quite a flap. But Soros was not exaggerating. The financial system has disintegrated. What we are experiencing now is just the fallout from that event. This is easier to understand by using an analogy. Imagine watching the demolition of a hundred-story skyscraper. After the explosives detonate and the building implodes, the chunks of debris and the shattered glass begin to fall to the ground below.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Global Zero Interest Rates Policy Means Spend Now Pay Later / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleECB President Trichet has effectively cut its interest rate policy to .5% by agreeing to provide banks an unlimited supply of cash.

Let's tune in with a look at ECB Approaches Zero Rates by Stealth With New Weapon .

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 09, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Short-term Bounce Continues / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded up last week. All you little traders out there who have long positions in the bond market, let's all say a big thank you to the Bank of England – which not only lowered their benchmark rate to a new all time low of 0.50%, but also loudly trumpeted that they will be in the market buying long term Gilts (UK Government bonds) in the not too distant future. This announcement caused a close to 50 basis point rally in the 10 year Gilts and rallies of lesser magnitude in other government bond markets. Supply will be a front page item again in the US as the Treasury will be conducting what used to be a quarterly auction cycle for the second month in a row. The market will need to deal with new supply of 3, 10 and 30 year bonds as the week unfolds.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 07, 2009

Inflection Point in U.S. Treasury Bond Interest Rates Near? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pollaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePity the tortured Treasury bond buyer; what to do, what to do. These headlines from Bloomberg news chronicle the struggle. On March 4th :

Treasuries Fall on Looming Auctions, Deficit Funding Concern
By Susanne Walker
March 4 (Bloomberg) – Treasuries fell as stocks rose and traders speculated the U.S. will sell $60 billion of notes and bonds next week after the worst two months of losses in government debt in five years

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 07, 2009

Hedge Funds Profit from Ratings Agencies AAA Rated Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnintended Consequences
  • The I-Factor
  • Rating Agencies Gone Wild

Rules have consequences. And sometimes they have unintended consequences. If I told you that the US government was going to give multiple tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to hedge funds and private investors, you would justifiably not be happy. I think the word angry would come to mind. But that is exactly what is happening, as a result of rules that were written for a time and place seemingly long ago and far, far away. Further, we are looking at potentially much larger sums being lost in the bank bailout (can we say hundreds of billions?), a reduced lending capacity at banks and, in general, a worsening of the very problems at the core of the crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Bank of England Ignites Quantitative Inflation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic Shock and Awe as Interest Rates are cut to 0.5% coupled with £75 Billion conjured out of thin air by Mervyn King Waving his "Central Bank Magic Wand". The government through what should be more accurately termed as "Quantitative Inflation" than "Quantative Easing" sanctioned £75 billion in the initial print run which will have a multiplier effect through fractional reserve banking and leverage of anywhere from between X10 to X20 the amount depending on how it filters through the economy, therefore £75 billion increase in the money supply implies the supply of credit should jump by anywhere between £750 billion to £1.5 trillion, but more probably in the region of X10 at £750 billion over the next few months, with expectations of several more doses of "Quantitative Inflation" during 2009 that seeks to devalue the British Pound towards parity to the U.S. Dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded down last week. The market action was quite disappointing for a number of reasons. The fundamental data remains dismal and considerably weaker than consensus forecasts. Pressure on the stock markets has not eased up one bit. The S&P500 Stock Index broke key support at 800 a couple of weeks ago and it ended the month of February below the lows of last November. Needless to say stocks had a brutal 2008, a record January drop to start 2009 and then followed up with the worst February performance on record.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 02, 2009

U.S. Bond Market Performance Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor a while after the Q4 2008 simultaneous crash of nearly all forms of assets, bonds recovered and stocks did not.  However, of late, bonds are not so strong.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Obama Says Short U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pollaro

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBank bailouts, homeowner bailouts, auto industry bailouts, and now massive stimulus packages; the Federal Government spending list goes on and on. The Federal Deficit for this fiscal year is projected by Goldman Sachs to be as high as $2.5 trillion. That's 5.5 times the fiscal 2007 Federal Deficit and 1.5 times Gross U.S. Savings. A $2.5 trillion deficit will create quite a waterfall on this graph, don't you think:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

U.S. Treasuries on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) gapped to the upside this morning ahead of Bernanke's testimony, likely expecting some supportive news, such as the Fed intending to buy Treasury paper to foster lower mortgage rates. As of yet, longs either are disappointed in Bernanke's prepared text or are so uncertain that they are taking profits as the TLTs test prior resistance at 106.50/60. Whatever the actual reason, as long as the TLTs do not break and sustain beneath 104.80, my technical work encourages me to remain long.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 23, 2009

U.S. Bond View Positive Despite Higher than Expected Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded higher last week. The fundamental data remains weak and pressure on the stock markets lent renewed support for bonds. Supply remains a topic of conversation for traders as the Treasury will be auctioning close to a total of another $100 Billion 2, 5 and 7 Year Notes next week. If interest remains as solid as it was on the Quarterly refunding last week, then bonds should manage to continue to hold the support levels that were tested and held during the recent down-trade.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Key Market Indicater Says Sell Gilts, Buy Stocks / Interest-Rates / Investing 2009

By: FleetStreetInvest

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWatch out! The next bubble could be about to burst. This also signals a great opportunity for smart investors – because a key indicator shows that now's a fantastic time to get into stocks.

In the past 24 months, emerging markets, housing and commodity bubbles have all popped with painful impact. Now, the same could happen again, but this time in the government bond market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Treasury Bonds Trade Lower on Increasing Supply / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market traded down again last week, as the main driver appears to be the supply side of the equation. As expected, setting up for the Quarterly Treasury refunding kept a lid on the market even as the economic landscape continues to deteriorate. Traders will have to deal with $32Billion 3 Year Notes on Tuesday, $21Billion 10 Year paper on Wednesday and $14Billion 30 Year Bonds on Thursday. The key is normally in the second leg of these 3 day auctions, so if the 10 Year tranche is well distributed, that could provide a bit of relief for this market that has seen nothing but trouble during the first 5 weeks of 2009.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 09, 2009

Investment Strategy Favours Corporate Bonds / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe worst employment report in well over a decade and the market jumps nearly 3% - could stocks be whistling past the graveyard or is there something more that we're missing? To be sure the news is bad and is going to be bad for the next couple of months as the reports are referencing the worst part of the severe recession. Job cuts seem to go hand in hand with earnings reports, housing remains dormant and even new home construction is well below “replacement” rates.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 09, 2009

Stimulus Financing Faces Major Difficulties as Treasury Bond Market Shows / Interest-Rates / Economic Stimulus

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: As I watch the $900 billion stimulus bill wind its way through Congress, knowing this will be piled atop the estimated 2009 deficit of $1.19 trillion, the longtime banker in me keeps asking the same worrisome question: How the devil are they going to finance all this rubbish?

A report released Wednesday by the U.S. Treasury Department's Borrowing Advisory Committee on the government's borrowing plans gave me the answer I expected: With great difficulty.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 08, 2009

Bad Debt Crisis: Inadequate Loan Loss Reserves at Numerous Minnesota Banks / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt Minnesota banks, bad loans are piling up much faster than the amount of money being set aside to cover them. The StarTribune takes a look at the problem in State's banks below norm in reserves . Despite repeated warnings of economic trouble ahead, banks in Minnesota have failed to keep pace with the rise in bad loans. Among those banks, the ratio of past-due and nonaccrual loans -- or loans for which payment is in doubt -- as a percentage of total loans rose 50 percent since 2006, while the reserves to total loans ratio remained virtually unchanged.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 05, 2009

UK Interest Rates Crash to 1% New Record Low / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England fired the fifth shot in its series of panic interest rate cuts that have taken the base interest down from 5% in October 2008 to 1% today. This follows the crash in UK GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008 which contracted by -1.5% and is inline with earlier analysis that projects towards an additional 3% GDP contraction for 2009.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Credit Crisis Watch: Liquidiy Injections Starting to Thaw Credit Freeze / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAre the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world's financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about - a regular review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is under way.

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