Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, To Risk Or Not To Risk / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
In many respects the current market environment can be broken down into a very simple construct: to risk or not to risk. To start this week, the risk trade is back on. Risk assets, such as stocks and commodities, are moving higher; safe haven assets, such as bonds and the Dollar, are moving lower. Last week, the risk trade was off. Safe haven assets outperformed as the risky assets went into a swoon.
Monday, February 01, 2010
The Collapse of Sovereign Government Bonds The Next Financial Crisis Contagion / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Martin_D_Weiss
The next contagion is beginning to spread around the globe.
It is unexpected on Wall Street, misunderstood in Washington — and very dangerous.
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Monday, February 01, 2010
UK Loan Rates At Nine Year High / Interest-Rates / Debt & Loans
By: MoneyFacts
Risk continues to be the focus in all lending activity, but with no guarantees on the debt being repaid, unsecured personal loans have seen some of the sharpest increases.
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Friday, January 29, 2010
Growing Investor Discontent With U.S. Government Economic Solutions ... / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Oakshire_Financial
Nick Thomas writes: When scanning the various investment boards and forums on the Internet these days, it's obvious that most people have very low confidence both in the economy and the government's efforts to fix it.
Friday, January 29, 2010
India Monetary Policy Tightens, Read Hawkish and Inflation to Rise / Interest-Rates / India
By: Vishal_Damor
Our view for the last six months has been that while US will face deflation over the next decade, India and China will be left to battle with hyper inflation which is now slowly getting out of hand.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
The Danger behind the Fed's Exceptional Profits / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: MISES
Mateusz Machaj writes: A few days ago, the Fed announced that it had "earned" a record-high amount of money in 2009. Then it turned $46 billion over to the Treasury. Here we are in the midst of a serious recession, with the unemployment rate high, the housing market still in a slump, and the stock market making only small steps toward recovery. In this climate, the Fed is making profits.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
U.S. Low Interest Rates Corporate and State Bonds Mad Rush / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Pension plans everywhere are in serious trouble. Pension plans in Wisconsin are about to get in still deeper trouble using leverage.
Inquiring minds note the State of Wisconsin Investment Board Clears Plan to Borrow to Juice Returns. Other states are considering doing the same. Please consider Pensions Look to Leverage Up.
Monday, January 25, 2010
UK Best and Worst Standard Variable Interest Rate Mortgages / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Base rate has been at an all time low of 0.50% for the last ten months and with no incentive to move on to a new deal, increasing numbers of borrowers have moved onto their lenders’ standard variable rate (SVR).
While some borrowers benefit from the cut in base rate being passed on in full, others have not been so fortunate, with a difference of £5,670 between the cheapest and the most expensive lenders.
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Friday, January 22, 2010
UK Government Bonds, Gilts Rebound / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
We started the New Year bearish of bonds as we judged the global economic recovery looked on track and although a slow recovery was still expected, traders seemed confident enough to turn their attention to the debt build up in the major developed economies.
This had the effect of hitting many major sovereign bond markets hard in the early days of January. Of course, the bear move had begun over the Christmas and New Year Holiday period, but it wasn’t until the New trading year had began that we judged the move was more than Year End activity.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
UK CPI Inflation Begins Spiralling Out of Control Means Headache for Savers / Interest-Rates / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
The consumer price index again rose sharply to 2.9%, spiralling above the Government’s target of 2% for the first time since May.
Savings rates look to have hit rock bottom, with the average no notice rate hovering at 0.75%, not far above bank base rate.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
UK Banks Such as Halifax (HBOS) Underpaying Cash ISA Saving Account Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The tax payer bailed out bank Halifax (HBOS), which was forced into a shotgun wedding with Lloyds TSB in Sept/Oct 08 to prevent nationalisation, the combined group later going on to become defacto nationalised as the HBOS exploding mortgage book shredded Lloyds TSB's balance sheet to pieces, illustrates the consequences of an artificial banking system as borrowers and savers pay the ultimate price of bailing out the banks.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
What Happens When the Fed Stops Quantitative Easing? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
When the Fed Stops the Music
Who Wants the Old Maid?
It's the Deleveraging, Stupid!
Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment still likely to be at 10%? Or will cooler heads prevail? Would such an increase cause a recession? Will the markets anticipate the effects of such a major increase in advance? How will the mortgage market react when the Fed stops buying mortgage securities at the end of March? There are so many things in the air, and today we explore more of them, as I continue (perhaps foolishly) to try and peer into what is a very cloudy crystal ball.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Rising Interest Iates and Lower Stock Market Before End of 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Lorimer_Wilson
"The unprecedented run in the equity markets has boosted confidence among households and helped solidify the economy's shaky foundations. The improving economic outlook undoubtedly applies increasing pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada to hike interest rates from record-low levels. Are traders and investors ready for the end of nearly free money?" asks Paul Vieira of The Financial Post in an article entitled 'The End of Free Money'. Below are edited excerpts from Vieira's article examining the repercussions such increased rates would have on the economies of Canada and the United States.
Friday, January 15, 2010
UK Interest Rates Rise 2010 Sentance / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press this week is starting to fragment from its near consensus view that interest rates would remain unchanged or little changed well into 2011 following a few sentences from Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who's comments have been jumped upon to now generate headlines of interest rate rises this year though backed up with little or no actual analytical substance, which is highly suggestive of the press again flip flopping in the opposite direction every other week going forward.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Technical Update On IEF And TLT / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Guy_Lerner
When we last looked at longer term Treasury yields, I stated that longer term Treasury yields were likely to undergo a secular trend change from down to up, but I had reservations because significant resistance was overhead, sentiment was too bullish for higher yields, and Treasury yields were greatly overbought. Honestly, last week I was not sure which way the bond market was going to go but I did offer up a game plan. This article will review the game plan that now have me more constructive on bonds or bearish on Treasury yields.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression which triggered a series of panic interest rate cuts all the way to 0.5% by March 2009 and they have stayed there right into the start of 2010. This in-depth analysis is third in a series of analysis that seeks to generate accurate forecasts for UK Inflation, GDP Growth and Interest Rates for 2010 and beyond. The whole analysis and implications of which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the completed scenario in your email in-box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
UK, U.S. and Euro Interest Rate Trends Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive the final analysis and forecast in your email in box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
British Pound Currency Trends and the UK Base Interest Rate / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Improving UK Mortgage Lending Feeding the House Prices Bounce / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Monday, January 11, 2010
LIBOR / UK Base Interest Rate Spread Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.