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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

U.S. Fed Anticipated 0.5% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe main question is whether today's anticipated Fed rate cut will succeed in maintaining the current boost to global risk appetite, regardless of the size of the easing. Since the beginning of the market crisis 7 weeks ago, the Federal Reserve has proven more creative in its overall actions than surprisingly dovish in its rate cuts. At the last scheduled FOMC meeting, the Committee kept rates unchanged despite the collapse of Lehman Bros but offered a bridge loan to AIG. In keeping with current Modus Operandi, a 50-bp rate cut in the fed funds rate is the most likely scenario, while a 25-bp easing is more plausible than 75-bps.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Pullback in U.S. Treasury Bonds Appears Complete / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The large 6-week coil pattern in the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) hit its 3rd coordinate on the high side last Friday at 100.00 (off of the 10/17 low at 93.02), and since has pulled back to this morning's low at 96.02, which represents a 60% correction of the 10/17-10/24 upleg. The strength off of 96.02 suggests strongly that the pullback is complete and is turning to the upside to enter a new upleg that will retest and likely hurdle resistance between 100.00 and 100.86 -- on the way to 102.00.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Global Economic Outlook Suggests Concerted Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Global Economy

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial panic that began in early September has been a body blow to global business confidence and the global economy which, according to the Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody's Economy.com , is now in recession.

How bad is the shape of the US and global economy?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Mortgage Interest Rate Resets May Fuel LIBOR Market Manipulation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes:It's panic time for U.S. legislators, regulators, banks and lenders. More than $24 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are expected to “re-set” to higher interest rates in November – boosting the likelihood of further home foreclosures.

And it gets worse. That increase in borrowing costs will spread to other parts of the global debt market, representing an across-the board threat to corporate, institutional and sovereign borrowers. If interest rates remain high and interbank lending remains tight, the credit crisis is not likely to recede.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Investment Opportunities in Municipal Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe $2.66 trillion municipal bond market is embroiled in the overall credit market mess, creating an unusual complex of risks and opportunities.

The supply-demand forces in the municipal bond market have been unfavorable in the past year, causing prices to decline.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Keynesian Economic Claptrap From PIMCO / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe amount of total nonsense currently circulating on the so called Paradox of Thrift is staggering.

The paradox: An increase in saving, which is generally good advice for an individual during bad economic times, can actually worsen the macroeconomy causing a reduction in aggregate income, production, and paradoxically a decrease in saving.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

How LIBOR Threatened to Destroy the Global Banking System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: largest financial crisis since the Great Depression has revolved around an interest rate that many U.S. investors are only now hearing about for the very first time: The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

But if you understand that rate, and study the forces that have been influencing it, chances are very good that you can figure out how we can escape the current banking-sector mess without wrecking the entire world economy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 19, 2008

The Mechanism Of Capital Destruction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Professor_Emeritus

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAddress at the Annual Dinner of the
Committee for Monetary Research and Education, CMRE
on October 16, 2008
New York City


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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 17, 2008

Why Mortgage Interest Rates Are Rising Despite Government Actions! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: The government is throwing everything … and I do mean EVERYTHING … at the credit and mortgage markets.

It has taken over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Debt vs Interest Rates Conundrum / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI've written before about the dramatic rise in fixed income rates that face investors in the very near future due to the funding issues associated with our entitlement programs coupled with the incalculable measures taken by the government in the past few weeks to stem the credit crisis. Those efforts ensure the amount of Treasury issuance will explode.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

U.S. Forcing Banks to Resume Lending at Bazooka Point / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor now, you can force banks to take money, but you can't force them to lend it. Let's explore this theory starting with a look at the Drama Behind a $250 Billion Banking Deal .

The chief executives of the nine largest banks in the United States trooped into a gilded conference room at the Treasury Department at 3 p.m. Monday. To their astonishment, they were each handed a one-page document that said they agreed to sell shares to the government, then Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said they must sign it before they left.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin here with an urgent update on these wild, wild markets.

The key factor many investors seem to be forgetting: While stock markets have enjoyed a historic rally, bond markets are suffering a dramatic decline.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Treasury Bonds ETF Inverse Trend to Stock Market Indices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo some degree, the TLTs (Lehman 20 Yr T-bond, ETF) trades inversely to the equity indices like the SPYs (for instance); however, my sense is the recent upside explosion in the stock averages and the recent plunge in TLT prices have "corrected" and defused the bulk of that relationship, which if accurate, means that a new relationship is forming based less on flight-to-safety and more on the still-challenging (to put it mildly) economic fundamentals that will not be corrected any time soon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 13, 2008

How Credit Crises Begin and End / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Clif_Droke

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom the standpoint of investor sentiment the credit crisis has reached the point of maximum saturation. Every TV news program and political commentator, every newspaper and every magazine in town is writing about it. It is being depicted as a virtual apocalypse that can't be stopped.  For example, the headline for the latest cover of Time magazine reads: "The New Hard Times.” It features a photograph of a soup line from the Great Depression.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 13, 2008

Rising Bond Yields Despite Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded sharply lower last week despite the ever intensifying turmoil in world financial markets. The Treasury decided to auction a special $40 Billion 10 year Notes to ease the demand for Treasury paper in the bond market. So all of the sudden it appears that in spite of the safe haven qualities of US Treasury Bonds and Bills, the market has realized that with all the government bailouts and guarantees, there will be no shortage of government bonds going forward.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 13, 2008

$62 Trillion Credit Default Swaps Threaten U.S. Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold experienced sharp falls on Friday but was still up by more than 3% on the week. This was a very impressive performance considering that major equity indices crashed some 20% to 25% for the week (see Performance table).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 10, 2008

U.S. Fed Fears Loss of Power in Preventing Financial Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: The truth? You can't handle the truth.”

The truth is, the U.S. Federal Reserve does not directly control the Federal Funds rate, and its efforts to reduce the benchmark rate from 2.0% to 1.5% may do more damage than good – though for reasons you'd never guess. Attempts to lower the Fed Funds rate could irreparably damage Fed credibility and may actually narrow the Fed's credit-crisis-management options.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Dollar Libor Jumps to New Credit Crisis Extreme / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLending remains in a deep freeze as the Libor Dollar Rate Jumps to Highest in Year .

The cost of borrowing in dollars for three months in London soared to the highest level this year as coordinated interest-rate reductions worldwide failed to revive lending among banks for any longer than a day.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 09, 2008

LIBOR Interbank Money Market Earthquake Signals UK Debt Recession / Interest-Rates / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe LIBOR interbank money market rates have FAILED to respond to the co-ordinated and unprecedented interest rate cuts across the world by key central banks which includes the U.S. Fed, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB), in conjunction with extra liquidity and in Britain's case a bank bailout package that could total as much as £500 billion or 41% of GDP which is on par with the amounts as a percentage of GDP the United States required to recover from the 1930's Great Depression.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Credit Crisis Commercial Paper Disaster / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: The commercial paper market is the thoroughfare where Wall Street merges into Main Street. Corporations, finance companies and banks rely on Main Street investors for the cash they deposit into money-market funds and other short-term investment vehicles. Ultimately, that cash buys the commercial paper that's issued to help fund everything from corporate payrolls to a manufacturing company's production inventories.

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