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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 13, 2015

German-US Bond Yield Spread Breaks Out / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Bond yields fell across the board since mid-June, but the more meaningful fact for currency traders remains yield differentials. For EURUSD watchers, the rate of decline in 10-year bund has been slower than its US counterpart, which led to a stabilisation in the German-US spread (not US-German) to the extent of breaking above an important 3 ½ year trendline.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Junk Bonds - The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Casey_Research

By Dan Steinhart

Individual investors take note…

Some of the world’s best money managers are betting on the biggest financial disaster since 2008.

You won’t hear about this from the mainstream media. Networks like NBC or CBS don’t have a clue… just like they didn’t have a clue the US housing market would collapse in 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Greenspan Warns Be Afraid of U.S. Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the U.S. economy, bond market and Fed policy.

On how afraid we should be of bubbles, Greenspan said: "Very much so. I think we have a pending bond market bubble. If we merely substitute the structure of equity prices and we have the price of bonds and instead of expected equity return we do have expected interest rate return. That price earnings ratio is an extraordinarily unstable position."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 10, 2015

U.S. Dollar QE Death Sentence, Us Treasury Bond Black Hole / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Rather than stimulus, the USFed's Quantitative Easing is a death sentence for the USDollar. It might provide an ongoing backdoor bailout opportunity for Wall Street banks, and even a window for China to switch from long dated to short dated USTreasurys, but QE is death sentence. It guarantees that the USDollar will be removed from the global premises and placed in the dustbin of history. Foreign banking systems are largely devoted to USTBonds as the foundation for their entire reserves system. The African type of hyper monetary inflation blessed as good and fine stimulus is a sentinel signal by the US Federal Reserve itself, given to the Eastern producing nations who save in the $billions. They will start a caravan to exit the USDollar in their banking systems. They have great challenges in doing so, and must follow a prescribed path. That path is the Chinese RMB as an intermediary device, a transition tool. The goal is the return of the Gold Trade Standard, which will assure the return to the Gold Currency Standard and the Gold Banking Standard. The absent solution to the chronic global financial crisis has been the refusal to put Gold at the apex. Instead, the big banks have become zombies, the economies have become sclerotic, the financial structure have been control rooms, the bond platforms have been fracturing, while the USGovt has relied upon bond fraud, gold thefts, the printing press, and predatory wars to defend the King Dollar regime. It is due for the funeral pyre.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 09, 2015

The Unseen Consequences of Zero-Interest-Rate Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MISES

Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: In a dynamic economy, an action not only triggers just one effect, but always an entire series of different consequences. While the cause of the first effect is easily recognizable, the other effects often occur only later and no such recognition occurs. Frédéric Bastiat described this phenomenon in 1850 in his ground-breaking essay “What Is Seen and What is Not Seen”:

In the economic sphere, an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them …

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 07, 2015

Fed Taper Tantrum Coming? It Won't Be Where Nearly Everyone Is Looking! The Next Tantrum / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Investors have been expecting another "Taper Tantrum" when the Fed starts hiking.

The term "Taper Tantrum" refers to the surge in US treasury yields (global government bond yields as well), in summer of 2013 when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put a spotlight on the wind down of Fed asset purchases (tapering off QE).

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Treasury Positioning at Odds with Fed Interet Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Why is positioning in US 10-year treasury notes at its most bullish levels in 27 years despite several FOMC members calling for at least one rate hike this year? The latest positioning figures from the CFTC show longs exceeding shorts by 65,642 contracts, the biggest net long position since May 2013. Such growing bullishness on the 10-year treasury is consistent with the 5-week decline in bond yields, which coincided with plunging oil prices.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 01, 2015

QE Fails In Japan: Inflation Nonexistent, Consumer Spending Drops, More Ease Coming / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Rubino

After nearly three decades of stagnation, Japan in 2013 went all-in, ordering its central bank, the Bank of Japan, to buy pretty much every bond on the market with newly-created yen. The BoJ's balance sheet -- a rough proxy for the amount of money it has created and dumped into the economy -- soared at a rate that dwarfs, in relation to GDP, the US Fed's QE programs.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 27, 2015

Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Frank Suess writes: In the second quarter, we saw a jump in yields across the board. The yield of 10-Year US Treasuries jumped from 1.9% to 2.4% over the course of the quarter, representing a yield increase of 50 bps. This led to a decline of almost 2% in the Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index. In Europe the development was much more dramatic; over the quarter, the Bloomberg German Sovereign Bond Index lost around 4.5% in value. This was due to an increase in the German 10-Year yield from 0.2% to 0.8% (60 bps). It is not completely clear what sparked the massive yield increase in Europe. It might have been a technical correction due to the very high prices bonds were trading at, increased risk aversion towards Europe due to the situation in Greece (Bill Gross even called shorting German bunds "the short of a lifetime"), or possibly aggressive short positions by some investors.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 24, 2015

A Bond Market Crisis Is Coming... Here's What to Do / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: Wall Street is already sending warning signals about the next financial cataclysm. Analysts are using phrases like "liquidity crunch" and "crisis situation."

It could happen next week... or next month...

Predicting exactly how a crisis will happen is difficult. Predicting exactly when is impossible.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 24, 2015

Not Your Father’s Inflation / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“Profound ignorance masquerading as wisdom - all the worse from the mouths of the prestigious, the PhD, the Nobel Prize winner….” - Unknown

It’s time to revisit British economist Peter Warburton’s April 2001 classic tome “The debasement of world currency: It’s inflation but not as we know it“.

Our friend from GATA, Ed Steer brought it to attention once again.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 24, 2015

Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6% in 1990 to 0% today. Therefore, Lacy says, “(I)t was the backdrop of shifting inflationary circumstances that once again determined the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 23, 2015

The ‘Real’ Reason the Fed Wants to Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

In case you thought you were smart enough to know why the Fed wants to do what it supposedly wants to do [1] MarketWatch sets you straight with the real scoop.  We’ll use this as a talking point and see what comes of it…

Here’s the real reason the Fed wants to raise rates

Policy makers want to give themselves some room to maneuver

That is the commonly held belief and who am I to dispute it?  A big part of the problem is and has been their refusal to begin a journey toward normalization 2 years ago, when the economy began to visibly (we noted the seeds of that improvement in January of that year) improve.  They had no confidence and I was left to wonder (aloud here, frequently and I am sure, sometimes obnoxiously) why Grandma [2] (and her 0% savings account payout) had to continue to bear the brunt of this non-action despite a recovering economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Market Bubble in Trouble? Rinse & Repeat / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: EWI

Our new, FREE report shows you specific areas of the U.S. stock market that have become dangerously frothy

When I was in college, I had this weekly ritual. I'd drive home to my parents' house every Friday, run inside to say hello, grab some food, and leave several bags of dirty laundry to be picked up the next morning.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 17, 2015

Bonds and Currencies Brace for BoE and Fed Interest Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Gary_Dorsch

It's approaching that time of year when traders and central bankers alike depart for long holidays. But this summer is shaping up to be anything but quiet for markets, with betting on a "Greek Exit" from the Euro roiling markets, and Red-chip stocks in China nose diving and requiring unprecedented "Plunge Protection Team" intervention in order to halt the onslaught. After a few weeks of turmoil, the Greek debt crisis has been kicked down the road for another few years, with another EU bailout, and after the Shanghai red-chip index, staged a +10% rebound from its panic bottom lows hit on July 7th, traders now regard these sideshows as "fixed" and under the control of their central planners. With these worries can be put on the back burner for now, it's back to business as usual, - that is to say, back to investing in heavily manipulated markets, in which extreme emergency policies, such as NIRP, ZIRP, and QE have distorted the pricing of virtually all assets, and where your local central bank has your back.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

The U.S. Fiscal Grand Canyon and the Cycle of Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The cycle of hyperinflation is already upon us. It was set in motion long ago. 

We are in the ultimate conundrum. Politically, the US Government, Treasury, and Central Banks must satisfy - pay for - unfunded liabilities and promises.

But the “money” is is simply a desperate conjuring meant to keep the doors of government open.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Has The Federal Reserve Missed Its Chance To Increase Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: AnyOption

The finance news space has been bombarded with so many different stories recently that many are starting to forget about one of the biggest stories in the space that we've seen throughout the year; the Federal Reserve. If you remember back to the beginning of the year, there were quite a bit of talks about a Federal Reserve interest rate hike that was to come in June, then it was September, and now, the story seems to have dissipated. Nonetheless, it's still a very important issue to follow; and more importantly, the landscape has changed quite a bit. So today, we'll talk about why Federal Reserve interest rates are so important, how the landscape has changed with regard to the topic, and why I think the Fed may have missed its chance to act. So, let's get right to it...

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, July 11, 2015

From Tsipras Proposal to Yellen's Speech / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Ashraf_Laidi

This afternoon's speech by Fed Chair Yellen at 12:30 Eastern (16:30 GMT/17:30 BST) is expected to reveal her reiteration the message that more will be needed from jobs and inflation before rates lift-off, especially 48 hours before another emergency EU/Greece summit. Yellen's take on the China and Greece issues will undoubtedly be highlighted as to be taken into consideration by the Federal Reserve. Yellen will be asked more on these global issues on Wednesday's semi-annual testimony to Congress (a crucial hour, coinciding with the Bank of Canada decision).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 10, 2015

The Central Bankers Dilemma / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

We are playing with fire.

How quickly we forget about the power of compounding interest - in reverse.

The world is limping along at ultra low interest rates. Otherwise benign movements from such extreme lows are magnified beyond comprehension. An equivalent interest rate move up from 10% has a tiny overall effect, compared with the same move up from lower rates.

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