Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Fed Rate Hikes, Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy and Why Again the Case for Gold? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ve been thinking about the current Fed Funds rate hike cycle, which is logically gaining forward momentum now that the Fed can stand down from its 8-year, ultra-lenient monetary policy cycle. That is because the Obama administration’s goals required a compliant Federal Reserve to continually re-liquefy the economy as its fiscal policies drained it.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Raising the Ides of March US Debt Ceiling Limit / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: BATR
One of the most played out scenarios in the rarified air of Washington life support is keeping the debt balloon inflating without blowing. Dismissing all the drama from the Kabuki theater that relies upon passing another continuing resolution to raise the debt limit seems to be one of the most reliable predictions that can be made about Congress. Come hell or high water, the borrowing ceiling goes up. So when Mnuchin calls on Congress to raise debt limit as deadline approaches, all seems ready to follow the familiar pattern of kicking the can down the road.
Friday, March 03, 2017
How Trump Versus Fed Adds to Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Steinbock
To implement his $1 trillion dollar infrastructure plan, President Trump needs low rates, even though the Fed’s rate hikes will strengthen dollar. That means new uncertainty worldwide.In his Crippled America (2015), Trump argued that “our airports, bridges, water tunnels, power grids, rail systems—our nation's entire infrastructure is crumbling, and we aren't doing anything about it."
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” says Rickards / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
The upcoming March 15 U.S. debt ceiling deadline is something that is being largely ignored by markets and most media for now. Despite it being just 9 trading days away. This will change in the coming days and is one of the many reasons why we are bullish on gold.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
A Damaging Week for U.S. Treasury Yield! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What a weird and unsettling week. The equity indices for the most preserved their gains, albeit despite Thursday's divergent action, while the bond market went straight up (YIELD straight down), which is the more curious of the major asset class behavior as we head into the weekend...
Technically, the plunge in yield fom 2.46% on Tuesday to 2.30% on Friday (-6.5%) has broken the integrity of the Dec-Feb high-level coil/digestion pattern. It is threatening to morph all of the action since Dec 15 (2.64%) into an intermediate-term top formation that will project weaker yield into the area of the up-sloping 200 day eMA, now at 2.10%
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Monday, February 20, 2017
A Game Of Chess And The Source Of The Federal Reserve’s Power / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
We have become pawns in the game of Chess being played by the Federal Reserve Bank. Who is their opponent? Anybody else who makes a move.
Week in, week out, everyone’s eyes and ears seem fixed on what the Federal Reserve Board will say or do. Mostly, it is about what they say. That’s because they can’t really do much of anything.
Except inflate the supply of money and credit. Which they have been doing for over one hundred years. And they are good at it, too. The historic erosion in value of the US dollar should merit more acclaim – or outrage. Unfortunately, the Fed is good at shifting the focus of concern to their opponent(s).
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Wednesday, February 15, 2017
This Chart Shows an Economic Anomaly That Investors Can’t Explain / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Nineteenth-century writer Frédéric Bastiat, in his classic “Broken Window” parable, warned that economic thinking requires us to see what isn’t happening as well as what is.
This yield curve chart from Macquarie Research provides a good example.
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Monday, February 13, 2017
Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Submissions
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Saturday, February 11, 2017
Greece Debt Crisis Outrageous Malevolence / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Earlier this week I was talking in Athens to a guy from Holland, who incidentally with a group of friends runs a great project on Lesbos taking care of some 1000 refugees in one of the camps there. But that’s another topic for another day. I was wondering in our conversation how it is possible that, as we both painfully acknowledged, people in Holland and Germany don’t know what has really happened in the Greek debt crisis. Or, rather, don’t know how it started.
That certainly is a big ugly stain on their media. And it threatens to lead to things even uglier than what we’ve seen so far. People there in Northern Europe really think the Greeks are taking them for a ride, that the hard-working and saving Dutch and Germans pay through the teeth for Greek extravaganza. It’s all one big lie, but one that suits the local politicians just fine.
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Friday, February 10, 2017
Brace Yourself, There May Be An Epic Collision Between Trump and Yellen / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : The FOMC recently held its first meeting since Trump took office. But before I get to that, I want to talk about the backdrop to the meeting… Trump’s relationship with Yellen and Yellen’s relationship with Trump.
Trump hasn’t had much good to say about Yellen. He said that her interest rate decisions were politically motivated. Hey, I was saying the same thing at the time. No disagreement out of me. No rate hikes for years, and now that Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve is suddenly keen on hiking with renewed vigor.
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Thursday, February 02, 2017
Could Cars Be the Death of Us This Time Around? / Interest-Rates / Debt Crisis 2017
By: Harry_Dent
The shining star of the 2009-2016 recovery has been auto sales.We weren’t surprised. In fact, we saw it coming. After all, cars are the last large purchase people make before stepping quietly into their years of increased saving and decreased spending. From around the age of 57 to 64, one task takes center stage: save for retirement. In the durable goods sector, housing peaks first around age 40, then furnishings at age 46. Only automobiles continue to grow after the peak in spending at age 46.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2017
US 10-Year Bond Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).
From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).
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Wednesday, January 25, 2017
TLT Update…US Bonds and Gold an Odd Couple / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for TLT, 20 year bond etf, which shows it built out a H&S top last summer. That H&S top is a reversal pattern that showed up at the end of its bull market which has been ongoing for many years. There is a big brown shaded support and resistance zone that has been offering support.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
2017’s Real Milestone, Or Why Interest Rates Can Never Go Back To Normal / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Rubino
Forget about NAFTA or OPEC or TPP or crowd size or hand size or any other acronym or stat or concept that obsesses the financial press these days. Only two numbers actually matter.
The first is $20 trillion, which is the level the US federal debt will exceed sometime around June of this year. Here’s the current total as measured by the US Debt Clock:
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Fed Monetary Policy Is Impotent Against These Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
Chris Wood of CLSA has a marvelous newsletter called, aptly, GREED & fear. He began his January 5 issue talking about bond yields possibly bottoming out.
For perspective, he starts with this long-term view of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades
Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Building Societies are Winning the Mortgage Interest Rate War / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
With competition still fierce in the mortgage market and many banks claiming to launch the lowest products ever on their records, many borrowers could assume that the mortgage rates from these providers will be significantly lower than those offered elsewhere. However, Moneyfacts.co.uk research shows that building societies are the winners when it comes to the mortgage rate war.
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Thursday, January 19, 2017
Trump Deficits Will Be Huge / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Peter_Schiff
There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine.
Thursday, January 12, 2017
How Debt Differs in China, the US and Japan / Interest-Rates / China Debt Crisis
By: Dan_Steinbock
Unlike advanced economies, China remains better positioned to overcome its debt challenges, due to the nature of is debt, level of development and economic fundamentals. Change is coming – but after fall.In recent months, China has managed to stabilize growth. Nevertheless, stabilization has required capital controls, continued lending and repeated interventions. Due to efforts to stabilize the renminbi, for instance, China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $3 trillion last month; the lowest since spring 2011.
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gordon_T_Long
Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!
As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.
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