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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2015

3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DeviantInvestor

US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close.  That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change.  This is a huge move.  What does it mean?

The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990.  Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever.  This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets.  Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition.  The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Did The Fed Just Admit to Deep Uncertainty About Our Financial Security In Retirement? / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement

By: Dan_Amerman

Generally speaking, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve is treated by the mainstream financial media as being the very paragon of respectability. If the Fed says it - then the voice of economic authority has spoken, and we need to listen carefully.

Yet, recent comments by Janet Yellen have instead made her a source of "controversial" economic ideas, with some financial reporters and their editors apparently feeling a duty to protect their reading audience - and let them know this is not acceptable economic thinking, but rather is "far outside the mainstream."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Iceland Ponders Radical Banking Plan to Eliminate Fractional Reserve Lending / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Mike_Shedlock

I have long railed against fractional reserve lending, duration mismatches (e.g. banks issuing 2-year CDs and lending money for 15-year mortgages), bank's ability to lend money into existence, and deposit insurance.

Fractional reserve lending allows banks to lend out a near infinite amount of credit with essentially no backing. Money inevitable creates asset bubbles, but as long as the bubbles are expanding it appears the system is solvent.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Bernanke Double Tap / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Brady_Willett

The promotion of 'risk taking' during Bernanke's tenure was, without question, done at the immediate expense of traditional 'savings'. Deal with it Bernanke.

Former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, began his new 'blog' yesterday with a dandy entitled 'Why Are Interest Rates So Low?' Given that only those with a financial acumen would read a blog from Bernanke, the silliness offered was remarkable. Nevertheless, here goes:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

No Body Understands Debt - Living in a Free-Lunch World / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

“Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices – just recognize them.”

– Edward R. Murrow, US broadcast journalist & newscaster (1908 – 1965), television broadcast, December 31, 1955

“High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions.”

– The McKinsey Institute, “Debt and (not much) Deleveraging”

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Why are Interest Rates So Low? Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Ben Bernanke just started his own blog at the Brookings Institute. His first post, from today, Inaugurating a New Blog is the announcement.

Let's dive into Bernanke's second post of the day: Why are Interest Rates So Low?

Bernanke: Low interest rates are not a short-term aberration, but part of a long-term trend. As the figure below shows, ten-year government bond yields in the United States were relatively low in the 1960s, rose to a peak above 15 percent in 1981, and have been declining ever since. That pattern is partly explained by the rise and fall of inflation, also shown in the figure.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 30, 2015

No FED Bets From the BIS / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

It is becoming harder and harder to ignore the fact that central banking policy isn’t exactly working out for the real economy. More wealth has been funneled toward an increasingly small and concentrated pool of unproductive paper wealth.

But low and behold, it looks like the political-monetary landscape is being groomed in preparation for the next leg of this ongoing train wreck. Now the Bank for International Settlement (BIS), the central bank bank of central banks, is throwing the Fed under the bus.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 27, 2015

Central Banks Paralysed / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Though the Fed would deny it, it is clear from the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that a rise in interest rates has been put off indefinitely. The subsequent rally in the price of gold and the sudden fall in the dollar tend to confirm this conclusion.

The Fed Funds Rate, which is the interest rate the Fed targets to set all other rates, has now been less than 0.25% for six and a quarter years, gradually declining from roughly 0.15% to about 0.10% today. It was set at a target range of between zero and 0.25% in December 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 27, 2015

Atlanta Fed President's Dilemma / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Norcini

'tis the week to hear from the various Fed governors once again.

Today it is Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart.

I am finding his comments rather unsettling after reading one part of them.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Steve_H_Hanke

We are still in the grip of the Great Recession. Economic growth remains anemic and below its trend rate in most parts of the world. And what’s more,  this state of subdued economic activity has been with us for over seven years.

In the U.S. (and elsewhere) the central bank created a classic aggregate demand bubble that became visible in 2004. The Fed’s actions also facilitated the creation of many market-specific bubbles in the housing, equity, and commodity markets. These bubbles all dramatically burst, with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Janet Yellen Give'em the Old Razzle Dazzle / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Peter_Schiff

Janet Yellen channels Billy Flynn? Last week the Fed Chairwoman treated us to a master class of rhetorical misdirection which produced some memorable examples of doublespeak, including the soon to be classic "Just because we removed the word 'patient' does not mean we're going to be 'impatient."' But perhaps more surprising than her new heights of verbal dexterity was the market's euphoria at being so blatantly manipulated. Never has the financial world enjoyed a lie so thoroughly.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 23, 2015

The Negative Interest Rates in Europe / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We wrote in one of our daily articles that Sweden had cut its main interest rate into negative territory (-0.10 percent). That way the Riksbank followed other European central banks. Currently, except Sweden, the negative interest rates are set by the Central Bank of Denmark, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. What does such a historically unusual monetary policy mean for the financial markets?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 23, 2015

Yellen Runs Out Of Patience, But Not Excuses / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed removed the word Patience from its statement made following the FOMC meeting that concluded on Wednesday. But, taking out that one word proved to be mostly irrelevant. The removal of the patient language was more than offset by the Fed's lowering of its GDP growth estimates and its projection for when and how high it will raise rates based on its previously incorrect assessments of inflation and growth. Ms. Yellen said in the FOMC press conference that removing "Patient" did not mean she would become impatient with raising rates. It is clear that the dollar's strength and the cascading economic data reported since the start of 2015 caused the Fed to push out its timing for its first rate hike and the overall level for which it will finally reach equilibrium.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 22, 2015

The "Natural Interest Rate" Is Always Positive and Cannot Be Negative / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Some economists have been arguing that the “equilibrium real interest rate” (that is the “natural interest rate” or the “originary interest rate”) has become negative, as a “secular stagnation” has allegedly caused a “savings glut.”1

The idea is that savings exceed investment, and that a negative real interest rate is required for bringing savings in line with investment. From the viewpoint of the Austrian school, the notion of a “negative equilibrium real interest rate” doesn’t make sense at all.2

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Yield Curve, Futures, Suggest No U.S. Interest Rate Hike Until December / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watcher's Anonymous is investigating the yield curve following Janet Yellen's exceptionally dovish FOMC announcement on Wednesday.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 20, 2015

Yellen's Tiger Riding Dilemma Keeps Interest Rates Near Zero / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

Riding a tiger is one thing. But getting off the tiger, without that tiger then whirling around and consuming you – now that is another thing altogether.

A short non-econospeak translation of the results of the March 17-18 Federal Reserve meeting is that Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen still maintains that she is getting off that tiger – someday – but not at this moment because she doesn't know how to keep the US economy and markets from being eaten in the process. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 20, 2015

Janet Yellen Needs a Lesson in Culture / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The interesting news coming out of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s Q&A yesterday was her response to a question about bad bank “culture.”

Apparently, it’s not the Fed’s concern.

Yellen said, “While changing the culture of organizations is not something that we can achieve through supervision, we will make sure that the banks that we supervise have appropriate compliance regimes in place.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 19, 2015

There Will Be No U.S. Interest Rate Hike in June / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Casey_Research

Jared Dillian writes: You might have heard that the FOMC removed the word “patient” from its directive yesterday, in that it would no longer be “patient” in waiting to remove monetary policy accommodation.

Lots of people were betting—have been betting for weeks—that this would be the meeting where Janet Yellen would lay out the path for a rate hike in June. The dollar has gone straight up against just about every G10 currency.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

ECB's QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Just one week after the surprising Swiss decoupling from the euro peg, the ECB unleashed its quantitative easing program. On January 22, the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, announced a €1.1 trillion monetary injection plan, which would start in March 2015 and last until the end of September 2016, or "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation". What does this €60bn monthly bond-buying program imply for the economy and gold market?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The Fed Will Likely Remove 'Patient' from its Statement, But Not from its Actions / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Although oil prices rallied more than 20% following the January Fed decision, their swift decline to fresh six-year lows raises questions about whether the Fed will underestimate threat of deflation as it did with GDP growth over the last three years. A June rate hike would be a policy mistake, especially as the US dollar index is heading for its biggest quarterly gain since Q4 1992. Adding Q3 & Q4, the USD index is up 23%. And yields remain muted as bond traders do not buy into a summer rate hike.

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